Christian Ponder Improving

[Crax]

The real question is can the WRs get downfield, get open, and accomplish both things in time enough for Ponder to get rid of the ball before he gets smashed? Aside from Harvin (who also doesn't do it reliably) who on the team (and not suspended) currently fits that description?

Between the WR's and the TE's, I'm still finding it hard to blame it all on them for not being able to run a 10-15 yard crossing route. I'm not even talking about 50 yard bombs. I'd love to see more intermediate routes. Harvin can catch more than 5 yard and under passes. He did it with Farve quite a few times, so the ability is there even if it's not 30+ yard deep routes.

Aromashodu has played half as many snaps as Jenkins and we also have two TE's that could run a crossing route. Maybe it's mostly play calling, but I fail to see why we can't generate some longer passes across the middle especially when the Colts by Ponder's own words were taking away the deep stuff with their scheme.

If this is a knock on Ponder... he can make that throw, too.

Both those were to Shiancoe. Doesn't Carlson and Rudolph both have the ability to do that?

I'm not trying to blame it all on Ponder either, I'm sure it's a combination of things. I just think pointing to the receivers downfield speed as the reason we're continually throwing short isn't fair either. It will be interesting to see if things change much when Simpson comes back. I should probably just relax, get some work done, and not get overly concerned about it until after week 4 or 5.

[Cliff]

Between the WR's and the TE's, I'm still finding it hard to blame it all on them for not being able to run a 10-15 yard crossing route. I'm not even talking about 50 yard bombs. I'd love to see more intermediate routes. Harvin can catch more than 5 yard and under passes. He did it with Farve quite a few times, so the ability is there even if it's not 30+ yard deep routes.

Aromashodu has played half as many snaps as Jenkins and we also have two TE's that could run a crossing route. Maybe it's mostly play calling, but I fail to see why we can't generate some longer passes across the middle especially when the Colts by Ponder's own words were taking away the deep stuff with their scheme.

Ponder And The Myth Of The YAC

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2012/9/18/ ... of-the-yac

Let's pretend, just for a second, that we don't have an offense based around the WCO, we don't have a legitimate deep threat (which shouldn't be too hard to pretend, at least until Wk 4), and we don't have a consistent OLine (...pretend?? Wuh??). The implication is that Ponder's stats (75.8% completion, 110.6 passer rating, 8.31 yds/avg, 0 INTs) are misleading because all he does is throw short routes. This also leads to the idea that we can't be successful as a team because our offense is becoming more and more predictable.

Pretend time is over. Our offense is based around timed routes, which are inevitably short-to-intermediate; when Jerome Simpson returns, we'll throw more downfield; if Charlie Johnson and Phil Loadholt actually pass-protect worth a damn, Ponder might have the extra second or two to allow a downfield play to develop.

But these are just excuses, right?? It still doesn't disprove that we can't win with a dink-and-dunk YAC-reliant offense.

Allow me to present Exhibit A -- the Top 10 QBs in YAC from 2006-2010:

I understand the frustration of a loss to a really bad Colts team -- but let's not look for fault in a QB doing his job, in an offense constructed around the way he's doing it, with personnel who take advantage of the very thing people are faulting the QB for. Certainly there is no direct correlation between the amount of YAC produced and a team's success -- but clearly, it isn't entirely logical to blame it for a team's failure.

[Crax]

....

Interesting, but that really had nothing to do with what I just said that you quoted. Once again, I wasn't talking about deep routes. I'm talking intermediate routes. Maybe it's all play calling, but pointing to receiver speed as the reason we're mostly throwing short routes isn't 100% fair. I don't believe I mentioned YaC once in that last post. I've never said we should come out throwing deep balls routinely.

From the stuff you just quoted:

Our offense is based around timed routes, which are inevitably short-to-intermediate

I'm not seeing much of the intermediate and a whole lot of the short. I don't have a problem with short passes. I don't have a problem with ponder completing a high %. I do think we should throw it a bit farther on occasion without saying we can't due to our recievers.

[Cliff]

Interesting, but that really had nothing to do with what I just said that you quoted. Once again, I wasn't talking about deep routes. I'm talking intermediate routes. Maybe it's all play calling, but pointing to receiver speed as the reason we're mostly throwing short routes isn't 100% fair. I don't believe I mentioned YaC once in that last post. I've never said we should come out throwing deep balls routinely.

From the stuff you just quoted: I'm not seeing much of the intermediate and a whole lot of the short. I don't have a problem with short passes. I don't have a problem with ponder completing a high %. I do think we should throw it a bit farther on occasion without saying we can't due to our recievers.

The OC was recently quoted as saying Ponder made correct reads on all but 3 passes against the Colts. Meaning he put the ball where the OC wanted him to put it.
(It's mentioned here if you're interested; http://vikingsmessageboard.com/viewtopi ... =1&t=24836)

Ponder currently has the 5th highest yards per attempt. It seems like the complaint is that short passes are generating YAC instead of being caught further down field in the first place ... but really who cares as long as it's getting good results?

[Crax]

Ponder currently has the 5th highest yards per attempt. It seems like the complaint is that short passes are generating YAC instead of being caught further down field in the first place

I think it's more that we're so concerned about completing a high %, we're not trying as much as we could be on the longer throws. I'd have to check all the teams, but Ponder may have the most throws behind the LoS. I've only looked at about 7 other QB's at the moment so far. Someone brought up Alex Smith as another QB mostly throwing short, but he has 7 compared to Ponder's 15 behind the line.

... but really who cares as long as it's getting good results?

We've yet to have much of a lead to protect and when we end up behind, we finally start throwing long(er). I pointed out earlier that ponder is 60% for passes that are 10+ yards. I wouldn't mind seeing his 75%+ completion rate drop some if it meant a bit more attempts on the further passes.

[Cliff]

I think it's more that we're so concerned about completing a high %, we're not trying as much as we could be on the longer throws. I'd have to check all the teams, but Ponder may have the most throws behind the LoS. I've only looked at about 7 other QB's at the moment so far. Someone brought up Alex Smith as another QB mostly throwing short, but he has 7 compared to Ponder's 15 behind the line.

For me that's kind of splitting hairs. If a guy throws a pass behind the LoS or 1 yard past it ... does that really matter? And again, Ponder's average yards per pass is currently ranked 5th in the league. So regardless of where the ball lands to begin with, it's being moved farther than that. So if the result is a 10 yard gain, who cares if the ball was thrown behind the LoS?

We've yet to have much of a lead to protect and when we end up behind, we finally start throwing long(er). I pointed out earlier that ponder is 60% for passes that are 10+ yards. I wouldn't mind seeing his 75%+ completion rate drop some if it meant a bit more attempts on the further passes.

This is where there seems to be something of a disconnect for me.

Do those longer passing plays start happening because they finally decided to try ... or do they start happening because they're actually open in the defense by that point in the game?

[Crax]

This is where there seems to be something of a disconnect for me.

Do those longer passing plays start happening because they finally decided to try ... or do they start happening because they're actually open in the defense by that point in the game?

I can't honestly answer that as I don't know. I do believe we've been pretty conservative on the routes. As you pointed out earlier, Musgrave said he's making the right choices based on the play calling. Are we relying too much on having our receivers running for the first down instead of passing to the first down? I can't say for sure. We're currently tied for 18/19th(9/25 for 36%) on 3rd down conversions. While that 75+% completion rate looks great, converting 3rd downs can still be considered poor(I realize that takes running and passing into account).

We've played the colts and the jags so far. If we throw a bunch of short passes that get stopped quickly by the 49ers are we going to be willing to throw more intermediate stuff? I hope so as from what I've watched on the 49ers, they do a great job tackling.

[Crax]

If Jenkins, DA or Burton aint wide open there's a good chance the ball will be either incomplete or intercepted.

I disagree a bit on Jenkins. He's made some good catches with at least decent coverage on him. You didn't mention Rudolph or Carlson. I would hope our two TE's can use their size to get some passes. I'm not expecting Rudolph or Carlson to out run the smaller/fast guys, just out position them. I don't think either one of our TE's have been very good in the run game, so I'd hope they have the pass catching skills. Rudolph caught 3 of 4 thrown at him vs Ind. Carlson had 0 targets. I was expecting more then 4 passes a game for our TE"s.

[S197]

Regarding Ponder, it's constantly brought up about his leading completion %, high yards per pass, and lousy receivers. The completion percentage is a bit of a misnomer, take for instance last game where he threw TEN passes behind the line of scrimmage and only four completions caught 7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That's similar to a shovel pass where the RB takes it 50 yards down the field. Statwise, it's a 50-yard pass but really it's not. That brings us to yards per pass, if only 15% of his completions were beyond 7-yards who is helping his yards per pass stat? His lousy receivers. Granted most of that is Harvin but again, I think it's a stat that's attributed to Ponder taken out of context.

On the flip side, I think it's equally unfair to compare him to a Matt Ryan who has probably the most explosive offense in the NFL. Or even an Alex Smith or Luck, both 1st overall picks. I think in the Jacksonville game we saw a very skittish Ponder early on, which the coaches adapted to by giving him short throws to build his confidence. I think that was the gameplan for Indy as well, rather than get him started off on the wrong foot, give him easy throws to make and move the football. The Vikings didn't make it to the endzone on those early drives but they were moving the football, which is a lot more than they did against Jacksonville.

Eventually the training wheels are going to have to come off and Ponder isn't going to be able to rely on passes at the line so heavily. Maybe that happens when Simpson returns or even Wright who looked pretty darn good in the last preseason game. Regardless it has to happen, and while I can give him a pass after only 2 games, that's a progression that will need to be done if he's going to prove he has a long-term career here.

[VikingLord]

IMHO, the Vikings throw short not because they *can't* throw deep (e.g. either Ponder doesn't try or the receivers can't get open), but because they *don't want to*. There is a difference, and here's why I think that.

In both of their first two games, the Vikings were behind late and had to move the ball. In that situation, with the opposing defense clearly playing to stop the deeper passing game, they not only attempted deeper passes, they completed them. They completed a fairly high percentage of them. So this notion that they lack somehow as a justification for failing to try to ply the middle and deep parts of the field is an excuse for a failed scheme rather than a fact supported by evidence. If they can try to do it late and have success, there is no reason they can't try to do it earlier and have success. They just don't want to because they've already made up the outcome in their minds as to how they are going to play on offense before the kickoff.

I don't know where to lay the responsibility for this failure of imagination. Probably Musgrave and Frazier, but eventually it trickles down to everyone and infects all of their minds. After being told they can't do something necessary to offensive success they eventually begin believing it, and once that happens, well, you get what we've seen since Chilly took over sans the Favre years. Favre bucked it, but only because he could, and when Favre bucked it the receivers who couldn't get open suddenly were getting open, the middle and deep passing game that the Vikings weren't built to execute suddenly was being executed well (or at least attempted), and screw taking what the defense gave - Favre took what was there and tried it even when it wasn't.

How I hope the Vikings come out against the 49ers and try to open it up. I honestly think it's their only hope of making the game competitive.

[Mothman]

The intense focus on short passes this week is beginning to make it sound like the Vikings don't let Ponder do anything else but they've asked him to make throws at every level of the field and he's shown he can do it. I think the Vikes are trying to play to their strengths and protect Ponder a bit but I don't think they have training wheels on him. Harvin's their best weapon and he's at his at his most dynamic with the ball in his hands, not when running 25+ yard routes down the field. Consequently, it makes sense to use him like the 49ers often used Rice and Taylor in their prime: get the ball to him quickly, in space, and let him run with it. It's been very effective so far. I think they'll let Ponder open it up when they have confidence in the plays and all the players involved and right now, I think they lack confidence in their receivers (and perhaps even their line) more than in Ponder. SF is probably going dictate to the Vikes to some extent so they may have a hard time opening up the passing game this week simply because the 49ers don't seem to allow it, even when powerhouse passing teams like GB and Detroit are the opponents. Nevertheless, if the 49ers aren't playing 2 deep as often as they did the first week, I won't be surprised if Musgrave asks Ponder to go over the top to someone a few times (perhaps Wright?). They may try to use Rudolph and Carlson to attack the intermediate middle a little more too.

Anyway, we know the Vikes need to diversify their passing offense and hit more passes down the field and they seem to know it too, so I'm guessing it will happen sooner rather than latter. If not this week against Sf than a week later in Detroit...

If they decide to really open it up against SF, they'd better do a #### good job in pass protection or Ponder will get killed. The 49ers are a very physical team.

[dead_poet]

In both of their first two games, the Vikings were behind late and had to move the ball. In that situation, with the opposing defense clearly playing to stop the deeper passing game, they not only attempted deeper passes, they completed them. They completed a fairly high percentage of them. So this notion that they lack somehow as a justification for failing to try to ply the middle and deep parts of the field is an excuse for a failed scheme rather than a fact supported by evidence. If they can try to do it late and have success, there is no reason they can't try to do it earlier and have success.

Huh? This makes my brain hurt.

I don't know where to lay the responsibility for this failure of imagination. Probably Musgrave and Frazier, but eventually it trickles down to everyone and infects all of their minds.

I don't know if you'd call this a failure of imagination. They are driving down the field and scoring points (though unfortunately too many field goals and not enough touchdowns). In fact, the ways Musgrave has designed to get Harvin the ball have been quite creative (out of the backfield, slants, WR screens, reverses/tosses we've seen more of last season, etc).

After being told they can't do something necessary to offensive success they eventually begin believing it, and once that happens

I highly doubt Musgrave/Frazier are telling their players they can't do something. The plays are designed to have deeper patterns and there are guys running those routes. It could be a number of things from the offensive line not being able to protect long enough, to the receivers not being able to separate consistently, to Ponder just missing the open guy. I think it's misguided to assume the coaching staff is telling or implying that their players can't run deeper patterns. Alex Smith has been a pretty similar player to Ponder this season. I wonder if 49er fans are saying the same things about him and their scheme?

How I hope the Vikings come out against the 49ers and try to open it up. I honestly think it's their only hope of making the game competitive.

The 49ers have excelled at shutting down two of the most potent and competent offenses in the league (much more potent than ours with better quarterbacks and receivers) that employ that very strategy. Copying that seems to be trying to be something we're not, attempting to make a weakness into a strength and playing into the strength of an opponent. I can't see how that approach would be successful. We're not built like that (yet). It doesn't make any sense to me.

[J. Kapp 11]

I think Atlanta provides a perfect contrast to the Vikings as far as downfield passing is concerned.

The Falcons don't throw that many "bombs." But they have speed guys like Julio Jones and Harry Douglas who can run deep routes and command attention from the safeties. That opens up the intermediate passing game. It was the same here in Minnesota when Randy Moss was in his prime. You HAD to pay attention to Moss, often with two DBs. So everybody else had room to roam.

Nobody on the Vikings is a deep threat, and Musgrave rarely runs anybody downfield, so opposing safeties pinch. You've got seven guys covering 20 yards of football field. That chokes off the 10-15 yard passing game.

Until Simpson returns, we're not going to complete many passes more than 5 yards downfield. He may open up the intermediate routes simply by being on the field.

[S197]

The intense focus on short passes this week is beginning to make it sound like the Vikings don't let Ponder do anything else but they've asked him to make throws at every level of the field and he's shown he can do it. I think the Vikes are trying to play to their strengths and protect Ponder a bit but I don't think they have training wheels on him.

Dan Wiederer ‏ @ StribDW
Three different Vikings WRs hinted in open locker room today that the lack of a vertical attack in Indy was the way things were called.

Aromashodu on vertical opportunities: "There may be some out there. But we can only go with what’s being called."

And now you even have Peterson lobbying to throw the football down the field.

I think they'll let Ponder open it up when they have confidence in the plays and all the players involved and right now, I think they lack confidence in their receivers (and perhaps even their line) more than in Ponder.

I think that's the big question, who do they lack confidence in? It's clear the players want to stretch the field and Musgrave has taken accountability for the dink and dunk calls. Indy's line was about as battered as a line could possibly be. Jacksonville was able to stretch the field with a 4th rounder from Mount Union. We're not exactly talking about the elite of the NFL here. The Vikings personnel is not ideal obviously but that doesn't mean you abandon various aspects of the game, if these other teams can do it with sub-par talent, why is the Vikings any different?

Anyway, we know the Vikes need to diversify their passing offense and hit more passes down the field and they seem to know it too, so I'm guessing it will happen sooner rather than latter. If not this week against Sf than a week later in Detroit...

At least we're hearing players speaking up and coaches taking accountability. That's at least a step in the right direction rather than flat out denying that nothing is wrong. We'll see what happens over the next few Sundays.

[dead_poet]

@TomPelissero: Wow. RT @wobby: #Vikings QB @cponder7 is 68 of 97 (70.1%) for 713 yards with 4 TDs & 0 INTs - good for a passer rating of 104.8.

@TomPelissero: After Christian Ponder threw one ball away rather than taking sack, Frazier said into headset, "Man, he's growing up. He's getting it."