Let's play "Reckless Speculation — Kirk Cousins Edition"

[J. Kapp 11]

As some of you know, Purple Daily is one of my favorite podcasts. They have good hosts (Phil Mackey and Judd Zulgad), excellent guests, and fun segments. One of those segments is "reckless speculation," where they predict things that are totally speculation.

I thought with the hiring of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as GM, we might have a little game of Reckless Speculation here on VMB.

Of course, the first thing KAM needs to do is hire a head coach. And it might be fun to predict that. However, that person is not in the Vikings organization at this moment, so it makes the topic pretty wide open. I thought we might narrow it down a bit.

Here's the question: What will Kwesi Adofo-Mensah do with Kirk Cousins?

In case you've been living under a rock, Cousins is set to make $35 million in salary for 2022, with a $45.1 million cap hit. It will take up about 22% of the Vikings' salary cap, and they're already $10 million over.

So ... what happens to Cousins?

Simple rules.

1. Be specific
The more specific you are, the better your prediction looks if it comes true.

2. It's OK to agree with or repeat someone else's prediction.
After all, you may have a prediction and somebody else simply posts it before you do. It's also OK to repeat a prediction you hear from a talking head, podcast host, etc.

3. Tell us why you believe your prediction will happen.
This might be the most fun part.

With that in mind, I'll start. Full disclosure: This came from Purple Daily, and I agree with it completely.

Kirk Cousins will be traded to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for Baker Mayfield and at least a 2nd-round draft pick. Cleveland will pay all of Cousins' $35 million salary.

1. Baker has worn out his welcome in Cleveland. They're sick of his attitude. OBJ is a prime example. He tried for two years to get out of Cleveland. He finally gets to LA, and voila! He's back to being a superstar. Baker was the problem. Still is.

2. Cleveland would love to have Kirk Cousins. Kevin Stefanski was the Vikings OC during Cousins' best year, the only year the Vikings made the playoffs with Kirk. Even though WE know all of Cousins' faults, Stefanski and the Browns would see him as a big upgrade over Mayfield.

3. Cleveland already has a top-notch roster and plenty of cap room ($37 million) to afford Cousins. Everything that Cousins supporters believe he needs would be in place.

4. The Vikings would get a 2nd-round pick or better. As far as the Vikings are concerned, they would sell Cleveland on "we're taking on your problem."

5. This would be good for the Vikings in both the short-term and the long term. Mayfield's cap hit is only about $18 million, so in the short-term, the Vikings would save $17 million in cap space. For the long-term, they're only committed to Mayfield for one season. He'd either be the bridge quarterback to someone they draft, or if he miraculously turns into Joe Montana, they'd have him in-house to sign him to a new deal.

There you go. That's my prediction for Cousins, and why. What do you guys predict? Let's have some fun!

[Texas Vike]

Love the thread idea! But I don't love that theory, as I'm a Big 12 guy and my teams are rivals to OU. More importantly, I just don't like Baker. I think he's immature, cocky, not a good leader of men. I also don't think he's that great of a QB. I like getting out from under Kirk's contract and seeing Baker as a one year crutch is fine I guess. I also have a hesitation with JJ being friends with OBJ, so what would this move do to our star WR? I have to think Kwesi is very aware of how polemical a figure and presence Baker is and knows better than to make this trade.

Something HAS to be done with Kirk's contract, no doubt about that. Given KAM's approach, he knows that committing nearly a fourth of your cap to any one player is not a winning recipe. I think he trades him, but I don't have a clear idea of the destination.

Maybe my post isn't what you're looking for! It's just a response to your RS, and doesn't pitch my own, so sorry if that's the case. I'll think about some reckless speculation and get back to you.

[StpViking]

Sorry Nutty Joe, best peanut butter salesman of all time. I can't do all 3 points but here is my reckless speculation.

Kirk Cousins is the Jeff George of this generation of QB, a lot of arm talent with none the W's to show for it. Even on this board I see people saying if this or if that Cousins can lead a team to the Superbowl. That's the same trap Rick Spielman fell for and look where it got him. Other teams aren't as gullible. They see him as a quality backup and only willing to fork over backup money for him. That is about $20 million. So the only way I see the Vikings getting rid of Cousins is to pay him the extra $10 PLUS $15 million from the 35. So the Vikings would be out $25 million to off load Cousins.

[StanM]

I will only give my reckless speculation if I can be assured that this is not “write that down”.

[StumpHunter]

Here are his options if he is a competent GM.

1. Do nothing

2. Add void years to Cousins contract to gain cap space in 2022. Whether Kwesi converts Thielen's, Kendrick's, Hunter's or Cousins' salary to signing bonus is irrelevant to me, but we need to do it with someone, so it might as well be Cousins. 20 million converted to signing bonus, 10 mil per year in 2023 and 2024.

3. Give Cousins a one year extension with 15 million in unguaranteed new money. That gives the Vikings an option to move on or trade Cousins in 2023 or they can keep Cousins as a cheap bridge QB, the only thing he is good for at this point.

4. Trade Cousins. I don't think he is worth more than a 3rd unless the Vikings eat a ton of his cap, and it isn't worth 20 million to go from a 3rd to a 2nd, so just trade him for a 3rd to whoever wants him.

If he is incompetent:

1. He will give in to Cousins ridiculous contract demands (which he will have) and we will be locked into a fully guaranteed QB at 40 million per year for the next 3 seasons.


Since I don't know what kind of GM we have yet, the most likely scenario are both of those 1's above. We aren't trading Cousins and he wouldn't take a 15 million extension, so I hope our new GM does nothing or adds void years to Cousins deal to save cap. Either one is the same to me.

[J. Kapp 11]

Love the thread idea! But I don't love that theory, as I'm a Big 12 guy and my teams are rivals to OU. More importantly, I just don't like Baker. I think he's immature, cocky, not a good leader of men. I also don't think he's that great of a QB. I like getting out from under Kirk's contract and seeing Baker as a one year crutch is fine I guess. I also have a hesitation with JJ being friends with OBJ, so what would this move do to our star WR? I have to think Kwesi is very aware of how polemical a figure and presence Baker is and knows better than to make this trade.

Something HAS to be done with Kirk's contract, no doubt about that. Given KAM's approach, he knows that committing nearly a fourth of your cap to any one player is not a winning recipe. I think he trades him, but I don't have a clear idea of the destination.

Maybe my post isn't what you're looking for! It's just a response to your RS, and doesn't pitch my own, so sorry if that's the case. I'll think about some reckless speculation and get back to you.

For the record, I'm not a Baker Mayfield fan either. I think if the Vikings trade for him, he's either going to going to be here for one season as a bridge, or he starts the season and gives way to a rookie the Vikings draft in the first round partway through the season.

I know a lot of people on this board think Cousins is untradeable. I think that's completely, 100% wrong. It's a myth, based solely on four years of scars left behind by the Cousins/Zimmer catastrophe. We see Kirk as a disaster. Others see Kirk as a 4,000-yard, 30-TD passer. And the truth is that Kirk Cousins would represent instant upgrades for at least a half dozen teams. The only question is whether you can get the other team to take on the entire $35 million, and what you can get back in draft capital. And those two things likely are intertwined — the more his new team takes on in salary, the less they give up in draft capital, and vice versa.

Cleveland to me is a special case. In 2019, Kevin Stefanski had the most success with Cousins of any coach Kirk has ever had. Cleveland has a glaring need at quarterback on an otherwise powerful roster. They see themselves exactly as the Vikings did in 2018 ... a talented team that is "a quarterback away." The Browns also have a great offensive line, one of the best in the game at both pass and run blocking, so the "all Kirk needs is a good O-line" narrative would be fulfilled. They have a great running game, which would help with play-action, something Cousins excels at (and which Stefanski used better than any OC Cousins has had). They have $37 million in cap space. And Kwesi just came from Cleveland, so he knows their front office well and has solid relationships.

I could also make a case for Carolina, but it's not as strong at Cleveland's. There are other teams with tremendous need, including Houston, Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans.

So write that down — Cousins gets traded. I'm saying it's to Cleveland, but if not, he'll get traded somewhere. Kwesi is too smart to hitch his wagon to Kirk, even for one year.

[fiestavike]

No confidence in this take, but looking around at teams that could use Cousins, might be interested in him, and where he might be a fit and upgrade, I'm thinking Indianapolis. Similar idea, probably swap starting QBs. Vikings take a downgrade, but a localish product in Wentz who could conceivably return to form, and who carries low expectations.

I think there is someone out there who will give a 1st for Cousins at this point. A team that perceives itself as either an upgrade at QB away from contending (Colts, Titans, Steelers) or a team that perceives itself as an upgrade at QB away from finally being more than a perennial doormat (Lions, Texans). Also, the Rick Spielman GM panic is a possibility for a team that might lose their starter to FA (Green Bay) or even to unforeseen injury (if Kwesi is comfortable rolling the dice on being stuck with Cousins for one more year unless he get's a premium return). Kwesi probably won't want to play a passive game of musical chairs to kick off his tenure. I expect he'll take the bull by the horns and be proactive, but max return might well result from waiting for the team holding an empty QB chair to 'pull a Bradford' and give up the farm for a bum.

[J. Kapp 11]

I will only give my reckless speculation if I can be assured that this is not “write that down”.

Nah. No scorekeeping here. Just trying to have some fun!

None of us knows what kind of GM Kwesi is going to be. But we're about to find out. His first duty is to hire a coach. That will tell us a lot. But what he does with the Cousins situation will be the standard by which he'll be graded for a very long time.

Kwesi says he's a guy who thrives on finding solutions to difficult problems. I don't think any GM in the league has a more difficult problems than the Vikings have with Kirk Cousins. This is a huge turning point for this organization. Get us out of the Cousins situation with a favorable outcome, and he'll win over a lot of fans. Fail, and his regime may never get off the ground.

[J. Kapp 11]

Here are his options if he is a competent GM.

1. Do nothing

2. Add void years to Cousins contract to gain cap space in 2022. Whether Kwesi converts Thielen's, Kendrick's, Hunter's or Cousins' salary to signing bonus is irrelevant to me, but we need to do it with someone, so it might as well be Cousins. 20 million converted to signing bonus, 10 mil per year in 2023 and 2024.

3. Give Cousins a one year extension with 15 million in unguaranteed new money. That gives the Vikings an option to move on or trade Cousins in 2023 or they can keep Cousins as a cheap bridge QB, the only thing he is good for at this point.

4. Trade Cousins. I don't think he is worth more than a 3rd unless the Vikings eat a ton of his cap, and it isn't worth 20 million to go from a 3rd to a 2nd, so just trade him for a 3rd to whoever wants him.

If he is incompetent:

1. He will give in to Cousins ridiculous contract demands (which he will have) and we will be locked into a fully guaranteed QB at 40 million per year for the next 3 seasons.


Since I don't know what kind of GM we have yet, the most likely scenario are both of those 1's above. We aren't trading Cousins and he wouldn't take a 15 million extension, so I hope our new GM does nothing or adds void years to Cousins deal to save cap. Either one is the same to me.

Honestly, I'd see both #1s as signs of incompetence.

So I hope you're very, very wrong.

[J. Kapp 11]

Sorry Nutty Joe, best peanut butter salesman of all time. I can't do all 3 points but here is my reckless speculation.

Kirk Cousins is the Jeff George of this generation of QB, a lot of arm talent with none the W's to show for it. Even on this board I see people saying if this or if that Cousins can lead a team to the Superbowl. That's the same trap Rick Spielman fell for and look where it got him. Other teams aren't as gullible. They see him as a quality backup and only willing to fork over backup money for him. That is about $20 million. So the only way I see the Vikings getting rid of Cousins is to pay him the extra $10 PLUS $15 million from the 35. So the Vikings would be out $25 million to off load Cousins.

OK, so you stopped short of making a prediction. (By the way, 3 points aren't necessary ... they were just the basis for my prediction.)

Sounds like you're predicting the Vikings won't be able to offload Cousins unless they take on at least $25 million in dead cap. Is that correct?

[StumpHunter]

Here are his options if he is a competent GM.

1. Do nothing

2. Add void years to Cousins contract to gain cap space in 2022. Whether Kwesi converts Thielen's, Kendrick's, Hunter's or Cousins' salary to signing bonus is irrelevant to me, but we need to do it with someone, so it might as well be Cousins. 20 million converted to signing bonus, 10 mil per year in 2023 and 2024.

3. Give Cousins a one year extension with 15 million in unguaranteed new money. That gives the Vikings an option to move on or trade Cousins in 2023 or they can keep Cousins as a cheap bridge QB, the only thing he is good for at this point.

4. Trade Cousins. I don't think he is worth more than a 3rd unless the Vikings eat a ton of his cap, and it isn't worth 20 million to go from a 3rd to a 2nd, so just trade him for a 3rd to whoever wants him.

If he is incompetent:

1. He will give in to Cousins ridiculous contract demands (which he will have) and we will be locked into a fully guaranteed QB at 40 million per year for the next 3 seasons.


Since I don't know what kind of GM we have yet, the most likely scenario are both of those 1's above. We aren't trading Cousins and he wouldn't take a 15 million extension, so I hope our new GM does nothing or adds void years to Cousins deal to save cap. Either one is the same to me.

Honestly, I'd see both #1s as signs of incompetence.

So I hope you're very, very wrong.

If no team is willing to take on the 35 million cap hit and want us to eat 20+ million, or say Carolina would give up a 3rd but require us to take back Darnold, would doing nothing still be the wrong move?

[J. Kapp 11]

Honestly, I'd see both #1s as signs of incompetence.

So I hope you're very, very wrong.

If no team is willing to take on the 35 million cap hit and want us to eat 20+ million, or say Carolina would give up a 3rd but require us to take back Darnold, would doing nothing still be the wrong move?

I will state unequivocally … it would be wrong for the Vikings to keep Cousins unless they plan to make him their long-term QB.

Since I have no desire for Cousins to be extended, then yes. It would be wrong.

Why would you just let Cousins walk for nothing in return if you don’t plan to extend him? Even a third-rounder is better than nothing, especially if Carolina is willing to take on that salary.

Darnold? Meh, who cares? He’s only under contract for ‘22 at half of Cousins’ cap hit. Make him the backup. Or hold your nose and roll with him for a year. The Vikes aren’t likely to make the playoffs anyway.

[StanM]

I will only give my reckless speculation if I can be assured that this is not “write that down”.

Having been assured that we’re not writing this down to keep score later I popped open a Surley and fired up my TCL 55” to watch the press conference. My reckless speculation is that (a) there will be a fire sale of 30+ players with fat contracts and (b) cousins will be traded.

[VikingsVictorious]

Here are his options if he is a competent GM.

1. Do nothing

2. Add void years to Cousins contract to gain cap space in 2022. Whether Kwesi converts Thielen's, Kendrick's, Hunter's or Cousins' salary to signing bonus is irrelevant to me, but we need to do it with someone, so it might as well be Cousins. 20 million converted to signing bonus, 10 mil per year in 2023 and 2024.

3. Give Cousins a one year extension with 15 million in unguaranteed new money. That gives the Vikings an option to move on or trade Cousins in 2023 or they can keep Cousins as a cheap bridge QB, the only thing he is good for at this point.

4. Trade Cousins. I don't think he is worth more than a 3rd unless the Vikings eat a ton of his cap, and it isn't worth 20 million to go from a 3rd to a 2nd, so just trade him for a 3rd to whoever wants him.

If he is incompetent:

1. He will give in to Cousins ridiculous contract demands (which he will have) and we will be locked into a fully guaranteed QB at 40 million per year for the next 3 seasons.


Since I don't know what kind of GM we have yet, the most likely scenario are both of those 1's above. We aren't trading Cousins and he wouldn't take a 15 million extension, so I hope our new GM does nothing or adds void years to Cousins deal to save cap. Either one is the same to me.

Honestly, I'd see both #1s as signs of incompetence.

So I hope you're very, very wrong.

My speculation is that I think he does nothing this year and bites the bullet on the cap hit. I don't see why it is imperative that Cousins is moved this year rather than next. Do we lose the ability to trade him next year? If we don't want to continue with Kirk and we can get value sure trade him now. If his contract has negative value as many believe we we may as well bite the bullet for one year and be done with it. What's wrong with biting the bullet for one year and then having a clean slate? Kwesi can do whatever he wants for 23. I don't think that speculation is reckless.

[J. Kapp 11]

Honestly, I'd see both #1s as signs of incompetence.

So I hope you're very, very wrong.

My speculation is that I think he does nothing this year and bites the bullet on the cap hit. I don't see why it is imperative that Cousins is moved this year rather than next. Do we lose the ability to trade him next year? If we don't want to continue with Kirk and we can get value sure trade him now. If his contract has negative value as many believe we we may as well bite the bullet for one year and be done with it. What's wrong with biting the bullet for one year and then having a clean slate? Kwesi can do whatever he wants for 23. I don't think that speculation is reckless.

Well, actually yes. We do. He becomes a free agent.

All speculation here is reckless, including mine.