march 9 is the kalil deadline

[jackal]

Good read DP
Maybe Tony will up Kalil game!
Was also wondering how Thielen will recover from his injury. Any news about him?

The draft can't get here fast enough.

I love this part of football I watch the combine
and draft every year. I think I might enjoy this more than
the season at times.

[losperros]

Thanks for the link, DP. I'm really hoping that Kalil can step up his game, especially after his great rookie season. That said, I'm still not convinced that health isn't the main issue with the guy. If that's the case, then there isn't much even good coaching can do.

[halfgiz]

It is pretty evident that Kalil is incapable of protecting his quarterback given the fact that he has allowed almost 20 sacks and 99 quarterback pressures in the past two seasons.

http://vikingsterritory.com/2016/analys ... matt-kalil

[Mothman]

It is pretty evident that Kalil is incapable of protecting his quarterback given the fact that he has allowed almost 20 sacks and 99 quarterback pressures in the past two seasons.

http://vikingsterritory.com/2016/analys ... matt-kalil

Of course, only 5.5 of those sacks occurred last season, which may be why the author chose to combine stats from the last two seasons to reinforce his point. Allowing 5.5 sacks certainly isn't great but it's a considerable improvement over the disastrous results Kalil had during most of the 2014 season.

[fiestavike]

Of course, only 5.5 of those sacks occurred last season, which may be why the author chose to combine stats from the last two seasons to reinforce his point. Allowing 5.5 sacks certainly isn't great but it's a considerable improvement over the disastrous results Kalil had during most of the 2014 season.

True, but the limitations of stats...if pressure hadn't been immediate from inside or the other edge on so many plays that number would almost certainly be higher. Nobody was great. Berger was good enough, Harris was maybe good enough. It was a dumpster fire.

But Kalil did look better last year than the year before, so I'll concede that much at least.

[halfgiz]

Of course, only 5.5 of those sacks occurred last season, which may be why the author chose to combine stats from the last two seasons to reinforce his point. Allowing 5.5 sacks certainly isn't great but it's a considerable improvement over the disastrous results Kalil had during most of the 2014 season.

Jim I agree with you on that.
He was ranked 81th in 2014 and in 2015 he was ranked 46th. So being healthy did help. But againest some of the better players Kalil wasn't to impressive. In my opinion he is not worth no 11.5 million.
Maybe Sparano will think he can improve Kalil...by next week at this time we will know.

[Mothman]

True, but the limitations of stats...if pressure hadn't been immediate from inside or the other edge on so many plays that number would almost certainly be higher.

Sure and if some of the plays had developed faster or Bridgewater had n't he;d the ball too long on some plays, the number might have been lower. Stats will always have limitations.

Nobody was great. Berger was good enough, Harris was maybe good enough. It was a dumpster fire.

But Kalil did look better last year than the year before, so I'll concede that much at least.

What else is there to concede? My point was just that the stat as presented in the article might be a little misleading since Kalil allowed less than a 1/3 of the 18.5 sacks he gave up over the last 2 seasons in 2015.

[chicagopurple]

he is still not good enough, injury prone, and when he is on the field he has a gift for creating dumb penalties at critical times.

[Mothman]

Jim I agree with you on that.
He was ranked 81th in 2014 and in 2015 he was ranked 46th. So being healthy did help. But againest some the better players Kalil wasn't to impressive. In my opinion he is not worth no 11.5 million.
Maybe Sparano will think he can improve Kalil...by next week at this time we will know.

It will be interesting to see what happens. It's a difficult situation.

[J. Kapp 11]

Let's think about this logically -- meaning "what is Rick likely to to?"

If Spielman is going to upgrade Kalil's position, he has two options -- free agency and the draft.

Spielman has made it pretty clear that free agency won't be all that exciting for the Vikings this year. While he might be blowing smoke, his history indicates otherwise. He signs very few impact free agents.

That leaves the draft, which isn't particularly flush with tackles. We saw the train wreck that happened last year when we started a rookie who wasn't ready, so the Vikings are likely going to be very careful here. You've got Laremy Tunsil from Ole Miss, who is a popular choice to go No. 1, and Ronnie Stanley from Notre Dame, who will be long gone by 23. Beyond that, who is there? Scouts are divided on Jack Conklin from Michigan State -- he's projected anywhere from 13 to the second round. Taylor Decker from Ohio State will likely be available at 23, but taking him in the first round might be a reach. Honestly, other than Tunsil and Stanley, nobody in this class screams all-pro.

I'm no expert, and I could certainly be wrong, but I have a feeling old number 75 is going to be back out there in 2016. There just doesn't appear to be any better options that Spielman would be willing to go with.

[VikingPaul73]

I agree that Kalil will be our starting LT next year

The only question for me is......will he be playing on his current contract or will he get a restructured deal ?

[J. Kapp 11]

I agree that Kalil will be our starting LT next year

The only question for me is......will he be playing on his current contract or will he get a restructured deal ?

True.

But March 9 is the drop-dead date for cutting him (and the subject of the thread), and it doesn't seem likely they'll restructure anything by then. Again, could be wrong.

[fiestavike]

Sure and if some of the plays had developed faster or Bridgewater had n't he;d the ball too long on some plays, the number might have been lower. Stats will always have limitations.
What else is there to concede? My point was just that the stat as presented in the article might be a little misleading since Kalil allowed less than a 1/3 of the 18.5 sacks he gave up over the last 2 seasons in 2015.

absolutely. I wasn't trying to argue with the point you were making, just demonstrate that even that isn't conclusive. The eyeball test clearly showed Kalil playing his best football in years early in the season. That would have been true, even if the rest of the line held up great, teddy held the ball too long, and Kalil gave up 20 sacks last year.

[mansquatch]

I read this and the first question I had was how many pressured the top 5 tackles in the league had last year. It is one thing to say Kalil went form #32 to # 18 and be upset because he is not #1. OK.

But I think they said he allowed something like 33 pressures last year and was #18. If #5 is 5 pressures, then sure, there is a big difference number, but how big of a difference is that really? But what if it is 20 pressures? I did some digging and around and it looks like a solid pressure rate was something like 1.8%-2.5% amongst top tackles. (% of Snaps where a pressure is allowed.)

So lets nerd it up a bit:

I pulled the Vikings and in 2015 they had 973 offensive plays, so if Kalil allowed 33 pressures, that is a rate of 3.392%. So not elite, but to get in the elite group you are talking about an improve 0.9%-1.6%. The mid-point of that range is 1.25%, so if Kalil improved his % by that mid-point he would be at an elite rate of 2.14%. In terms of pressures that drop him down to just 21 pressures allowed.

I hope everyone pays attention to this next part: That would mean Kalil would have to allow 12 fewer pressures THE ENTIRE SEASON. So the difference between #18 and top 5 in the league in terms of pressures allowed is 0.75 pressures PER GAME.

Of course, I'm not sure of the methodology. Is it against passing snaps only? If that is the case then the disparity is greater. The vikings had 294 passing snaps, so 33 pressures equal a rate of 11.22%. 5x greater than the league leaders at 2.5%. Seems terrible right? To get to 2.5% would mean a drop to 8 pressures or a difference of 25 pressures. Even, though the % is much higher due to the smaller denominator you are talking about 1.56 fewer pressures per game over the course of the regular season. So while larger than above in terms of percentage, the difference is literally 1-2 plays a game.

Obviously there is more to it than pressures allowed, but as you can see, when you dig into the stats the difference between #18 and #5 is something, but is it huge? I'm not so sure.

To me, Spielman is in part paid to make decision on what those 1-2 plays per game are worth relative to the rest of the team and the salary cap. How much cap space would it cost to eliminate those 1-2 pressures per game? Is that a good use of the cap space? How much should the Vikings pay in the 2016 market to eliminate 1.56 pressures per game? Another question is can they eliminate more pressures for less by spending on a Guard as the incremental cap or roster cost might be lower vs. eliminating those presses from the left side.

version: I still think Guard gets more bang for the buck.

[Mothman]

I read this and the first question I had was how many pressured the top 5 tackles in the league had last year. It is one thing to say Kalil went form #32 to # 18 and be upset because he is not #1. OK.

But I think they said he allowed something like 33 pressures last year and was #18. If #5 is 5 pressures, then sure, there is a big difference number, but how big of a difference is that really? But what if it is 20 pressures? I did some digging and around and it looks like a solid pressure rate was something like 1.8%-2.5% amongst top tackles. (% of Snaps where a pressure is allowed.)

So lets nerd it up a bit:

I pulled the Vikings and in 2015 they had 973 offensive plays, so if Kalil allowed 33 pressures, that is a rate of 3.392%. So not elite, but to get in the elite group you are talking about an improve 0.9%-1.6%. The mid-point of that range is 1.25%, so if Kalil improved his % by that mid-point he would be at an elite rate of 2.14%. In terms of pressures that drop him down to just 21 pressures allowed.

I hope everyone pays attention to this next part: That would mean Kalil would have to allow 12 fewer pressures THE ENTIRE SEASON. So the difference between #18 and top 5 in the league in terms of pressures allowed is 0.75 pressures PER GAME.

Of course, I'm not sure of the methodology. Is it against passing snaps only? If that is the case then the disparity is greater. The vikings had 294 passing snaps, so 33 pressures equal a rate of 11.22%. 5x greater than the league leaders at 2.5%. Seems terrible right? To get to 2.5% would mean a drop to 8 pressures or a difference of 25 pressures. Even, though the % is much higher due to the smaller denominator you are talking about 1.56 fewer pressures per game over the course of the regular season. So while larger than above in terms of percentage, the difference is literally 1-2 plays a game.

Obviously there is more to it than pressures allowed, but as you can see, when you dig into the stats the difference between #18 and #5 is something, but is it huge? I'm not so sure.

To me, Spielman is in part paid to make decision on what those 1-2 plays per game are worth relative to the rest of the team and the salary cap. How much cap space would it cost to eliminate those 1-2 pressures per game? Is that a good use of the cap space? How much should the Vikings pay in the 2016 market to eliminate 1.56 pressures per game? Another question is can they eliminate more pressures for less by spending on a Guard as the incremental cap or roster cost might be lower vs. eliminating those presses from the left side.

version: I still think Guard gets more bang for the buck.

I think pressures are only measured on passing snaps but I'm glad you raised the question of methodology because there's also the question of how attribution of a pressure allowed is determined in the first place. I think that matters. For example:

1.) An OT gets beat immediately off the snap and the DE he was supposed to block gets in the backfield and disrupts the play before it has a chance to develop. The QB is forced to throw the ball away in less than 2 seconds.

2.) An OT initially blocks the DE but eventually that DE gets past him. The QB has over 3 seconds to get rid of the ball but holds onto it (either because nobody was open or because he was reluctant to throw—in this case it doesn't matter). The DE gets pressure and disrupts the play.

Are both of those "pressures allowed" by the OT? What if the QB holds the ball for 4 seconds? At what point did the OT do a good enough job that even though pressure occurred, it wasn't his fault?

You're right, Spielman gets paid to make these determinations and he'll have a lot to consider when it comes to Kalil.