Week 11 Predictions: Vikings vs Packers

[mansquatch]

You can talk stats, but stats are only so good. Looking at the quality of opponents matters. As I've said in previous threads, the real difference come January is what you can do against the League's best, not how you do against the cream puffs. That is the difference between a contender and a pretender. Take the Raiders as an example. I felt like we had a strong shot to upset the Raiders because I looked at their wins and losses. Every time they played a team with a strong defense their offense did not deliver. Sure enough, when they played us, they scored 14 points and they lost.

GB had a relatively easy schedule to start out with, but there were signs of weakness, most notably Phillip Rivers putting up 500 yards at Lambeau. They also got lucky and caught Seattle early without Cam Chancellor. Now I'm sure you'll argue St. Louis, but the Rams do not have a great secondary and in that game they were playing from 2 scores down after the 1st quarter so on offense the score took away their strength, Todd Gurley. Was that a defensive triumph or was it the score making the opposing offense one dimensional? They hit the wall with Denver and Carolina, two very strong defenses.

How they lost to DET at home I have no idea, but that one should scare Packer fans. They were not even in that game until the 4th quarter. That is a lot of punts by the best QB in football. To be honest, I think he is hiding an injury of some kind. I'll give him a pass against DEN and CAR, they both have legit playoff caliber defenses, but the Lions? They are terrible on Defense and their secondary is among the worst in the league. Something is going on.

Outside of 2010, GB has had a history of winning a lot regular season games by getting turnovers and jumping out to fast leads forcing the opposing team to throw on every down. Clay Mathews can then run rush from anywhere. When they get into a game where the opponent doesn't commit the costly turnover then they struggle since the defense cannot just pin it's ears back and then it gets exposed. Perhaps the greatest example of this was the Romeo Crenell coached chiefs giving them the one loss in a 15-1 season a few years ago: Key to victory was no turnovers. In the playoffs the defense has been horrible for several years, the Kaepernick NFC Championship game, the game against the Giants, etc.

[dead_poet]

Count me as another one worried about this game. I just bet Rodgers is very peeved. While I don't think we're going to get pounded by Lacey in this one, I could see Rodgers coming out similar to when you see AD angry and lighting it up. I know Zimmer is trying to keep the team in perspective but he cannot allow a swagger like they may have had going into week 1 at San Francisco. I don't think a healthy Zimmer defense would allow it, but this IS the Vikings and a 21-point loss would be quite demoralizing, especially at home. The good news is if we can turn the Packers into a one-dimensional team, I would HOPE that would play into our advantage if Griffen and our blitzes can get home.

I do admit more confidence now at beating Green Bay than after week 1, but the Packers desperately need to stop the sliding and this is as huge of a game for them as it is for us. It should be a good game, but we'll need more from Teddy in this one than we've been seeing and we'll need more pressure on Rodgers than we got on Carr or it could be a very long day.

[chicagopurple]

My biggest hope is that we are getting a handfull of defenders back over the week. Our D did a great job playing with a bunch of bench players but playing against Rodgers with a depleted corp of linebackers is not an exciting prospect. The Pack has to feel like the sharks are circling. If you can lose to the Lions at home, anyone could beat you, even Cleveland!

[jackal]

My biggest hope is that we are getting a handfull of defenders back over the week. Our D did a great job playing with a bunch of bench players but playing against Rodgers with a depleted corp of linebackers is not an exciting prospect. The Pack has to feel like the sharks are circling. If you can lose to the Lions at home, anyone could beat you, even Cleveland!

Yeah I would love to see all of are defenders back this week..especially Kendricks

[mansquatch]

Count me as another one worried about this game. I just bet Rodgers is very peeved. While I don't think we're going to get pounded by Lacey in this one, I could see Rodgers coming out similar to when you see AD angry and lighting it up. I know Zimmer is trying to keep the team in perspective but he cannot allow a swagger like they may have had going into week 1 at San Francisco. I don't think a healthy Zimmer defense would allow it, but this IS the Vikings and a 21-point loss would be quite demoralizing, especially at home. The good news is if we can turn the Packers into a one-dimensional team, I would HOPE that would play into our advantage if Griffen and our blitzes can get home.

I do admit more confidence now at beating Green Bay than after week 1, but the Packers desperately need to stop the sliding and this is as huge of a game for them as it is for us. It should be a good game, but we'll need more from Teddy in this one than we've been seeing and we'll need more pressure on Rodgers than we got on Carr or it could be a very long day.

This is exactly how I feel. On paper given current trends we should win this game, but the psychological intangibles as well as the stakes are HUGE. I'm excited for the game, but I expect the Packers to come out swinging in this one, they are wounded and desparate. This will be no cake walk.

[Mothman]

This is exactly how I feel. On paper given current trends we should win this game, but the psychological intangibles as well as the stakes are HUGE. I'm excited for the game, but I expect the Packers to come out swinging in this one, they are wounded and desparate. This will be no cake walk.

No, it's more likely to be a nail-biter. What encourages me are the matchups. To follow up on your point about looking beyond stats to wins and losses: I'm a big believer in the idea that matchups play a key role in determining the outcome of NFL games. Sometimes, a winning team will drop a game to a losing team just because that particular losing team matches up really well with them. Anyway, I feel the Vikes match up well with the Packers (as the two teams currently stand). The Vikes winning formula of running the ball and playing strong defense should be very effective against this Packer team. That doesn't mean it will be, of course, but I'm feeling encouraged and confident going into this contest. I hope I'm not crying over my dinner by the end of it.

[chicagopurple]

LAST week was a desperate, important game for the Pack and they laid a big fat egg at home against a dog. I wonder just how revved up they are able to get? Rodgers looks lost. I wonder if he is playing injured?

[mansquatch]

LAST week was a desperate, important game for the Pack and they laid a big fat egg at home against a dog. I wonder just how revved up they are able to get? Rodgers looks lost. I wonder if he is playing injured?

I've been wondering that also. The final score against the Lion's doesn't tell the story. They had 3 points on the board for most of that game. The Lions pass defense is no where near DEN and CAR. Something is going on over there, but we can't count on that to win.

[dead_poet]

LAST week was a desperate, important game for the Pack and they laid a big fat egg at home against a dog. I wonder just how revved up they are able to get? Rodgers looks lost. I wonder if he is playing injured?

McCarthy said Aaron Rodgers is "trying to do too much."

[dead_poet]

@markcraignfl In 15 games against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has posted a passer rating of 102.7 or higher 11 times. Eleven. 138.7 and 109.7 in '14 games.

[IrishViking]

Well at that rate he should post an 80.7 this game and a 51.7 next time we play

[Mothman]

McCarthy said Aaron Rodgers is "trying to do too much."

Keep it up, Aaron. FORCE that ball into coverage! Heave it recklessly downfield! Hang onto it too long until you're sacked and fumble it away...

[chazjabo]

I just cant see us going 6 in a row at the expense of the Pack. I think we will make the playoffs but I think we are going to lose to the Packers this week, reel and lose next week, then right the ship and work into the post season.


I will be giddy if we win and for the first time in a long while I am not entirely certain while I predict this loss but I am not confident enough yet in the vikings to say we beat the Packers.



Here are my breakdowns

10% chance we got blown out badly
20% chance we get beaten
15% chance we beat ourselves
25% chance we lose a close one
15% chance we win a close one
10% chance we win pretty solidly
5% chance we dominate




One thing I am very excited for however is Zimmer VS Aaron Rodgers. I am hoping that Zimmer somehow manages to get Aaron's "number" the same way the Pats got Peyton's. Even if we lose, if our Defense brutalizes Rodgers and forces some turn overs or a lot of sacks I will be giddy from now on when Zimmer's Defense faces down the Packers.

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The fact that your breakdowns give a slumping Packers team a 70% chance to win on the road against a hot Vikings team is extremely questionable. Vegas has the game as a pick'em, right at 50-50. No way the Pack have a 70% chance

skol
Charles

[IrishViking]

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The fact that your breakdowns give a slumping Packers team a 70% chance to win on the road against a hot Vikings team is extremely questionable. Vegas has the game as a pick'em, right at 50-50. No way the Pack have a 70% chance

skol
Charles

I literally talk about why I cant get over the hump on the Vikings yet in that and in my previous post... In no way was I suggesting for a second that, that is anything but my personal opinion.

[Jordysghost]

You can talk stats, but stats are only so good. Looking at the quality of opponents matters. As I've said in previous threads, the real difference come January is what you can do against the League's best, not how you do against the cream puffs. That is the difference between a contender and a pretender. Take the Raiders as an example. I felt like we had a strong shot to upset the Raiders because I looked at their wins and losses. Every time they played a team with a strong defense their offense did not deliver. Sure enough, when they played us, they scored 14 points and they lost.

GB had a relatively easy schedule to start out with, but there were signs of weakness, most notably Phillip Rivers putting up 500 yards at Lambeau. They also got lucky and caught Seattle early without Cam Chancellor. Now I'm sure you'll argue St. Louis, but the Rams do not have a great secondary and in that game they were playing from 2 scores down after the 1st quarter so on offense the score took away their strength, Todd Gurley. Was that a defensive triumph or was it the score making the opposing offense one dimensional? They hit the wall with Denver and Carolina, two very strong defenses.

How they lost to DET at home I have no idea, but that one should scare Packer fans. They were not even in that game until the 4th quarter. That is a lot of punts by the best QB in football. To be honest, I think he is hiding an injury of some kind. I'll give him a pass against DEN and CAR, they both have legit playoff caliber defenses, but the Lions? They are terrible on Defense and their secondary is among the worst in the league. Something is going on.

Outside of 2010, GB has had a history of winning a lot regular season games by getting turnovers and jumping out to fast leads forcing the opposing team to throw on every down. Clay Mathews can then run rush from anywhere. When they get into a game where the opponent doesn't commit the costly turnover then they struggle since the defense cannot just pin it's ears back and then it gets exposed. Perhaps the greatest example of this was the Romeo Crenell coached chiefs giving them the one loss in a 15-1 season a few years ago: Key to victory was no turnovers. In the playoffs the defense has been horrible for several years, the Kaepernick NFC Championship game, the game against the Giants, etc.

The 2011, 2012 Defenses, have just as much relevance as the 2009, 2010 Packers Defenses, which is to say, none at all. The 2014 D, and 2015 Packers D has relied much less on turnovers then year previous (Which, isn't exactly a good thing, imo)

The biggest difference is that this year our run game, though spotty, has been solid, your going off years previous to suit your point but it doesn't make sense considering this is not the 2011 Defense.

Oh, and please, you really think Cam Chancellor would have won the game for Seattle? I might as well start complaining about or boatload of injuries, especially in the secondary.