Loki wrote:Here are 2 links to show why a lot of people are skeptical of Derek Carr. He only has above average accuracy in one category which is 6-10 yards (where he threw the least passes). He threw 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, and 26% from 1-5 yards. Altogether this means almost 60% of his passes are within 5 yards, sound familiar *cough* Christian Ponder *cough*. For having a big arm he is one of the worst at throwing 20+ yards down field. If all of this wan't problematic enough he is the worst against pressure and when blitzed, again sound familiar (Christian Ponder). when you combine these numbers with the fact that he is competing against lesser competition not to mention with an NFL caliber receiver in Davante Adams it becomes pretty clear he's not the player his stat line or physical abilities would have you believe. I'd like to welcome anyone who is an advocate for Carr to make an argument against these numbers.
I've already addressed some of it in this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=12&t=27041&start=30
The rotoworld article points out that the numbers they posted are meant to be a complement to actual film study of the players, not to stand on their own ("The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect").
The number of throws Carr made near the line of scrimmage are a consequence of the offense in which he played. Fresno State, like many teams over the past 30+ years, uses their short passing game like a running game. Those throws aren't a strike against him. After all, offense is about moving the ball and scoring, not about how far the ball travels in the air on each play.
The article conflates completion percentage with accuracy and they aren't the same thing. The latter is about where throws are placed. The former is self-explanatory. The article doesn't state how the "average' was determined but Carr's completion percentage was only listed as below average to a statistically significant degree in the 20+ yard category and that raw number doesn't take into account
why those passes were incomplete, which is why (again, as the article states) the stats need to be used as a complement to actual film study. If you watch Carr and read scouting reports on him, it's pretty clear that he can throw the deep ball well. As former NFL scout Greg Gabriel put it:
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFL ... -Carr.html
Carr has very good arm strength. He can easily throw the ball 55 yards and his deep ball accuracy is excellent. I like his his ball placement. He consistently puts the ball where receivers can get yards after the catch and where the ball can’t get intercepted. He shows touch and accuracy on all different throws.
While he throws a lot of short passes, Carr can make all the throws needed to be an NFL QB. He can throw deep outs and corner routes as well as seams and flies. Like I said earlier, on his deeper throws, his accuracy and ball placement is excellent.
There are reasons to be skeptical of every QB in this draft but in contrast to the analysis at the links you posted, there's the simple fact that Carr was the QB of the country's top passing game and his TD/INT ratio was fantastic. There are reasons to like his game and reasons to question it but he's undeniably talented. Personally, I think he has as much of a chance to succeed in the NFL as any QB in this draft. His success or failure at the next level will have a lot do with where he lands and how well he responds to coaching.
I've watched him play multiple times, watched his combine performance, watched the Senior Bowl, and watched multiple interviews (including his combine interview). Have you done all that?? Probably not so there's no reason to come at me acting like you "know" what I did or didn't do. I can just about guarantee I've studied this upcoming class much more than you have so you're drawing dead on this one. Aren't you the guy that thinks Aaron Murray will get drafted in the 2nd round? Yeahhhh let me know how that works out for you.
