2018 Offense Autopsy Redux - What really went wrong?

[mansquatch]

For me the past 10 days or so of NFL Free Agency has been painful to a point of making my brain hurt and not because the Vikings didn't do what I, captain arm chair GM thought they should do. They've been bad because I have felt like the majority of fans and all of the local sports media have completely misdiagnosed the main culprits of the 2018 season and it's eventual failure to make the post season. ST, Defense, but above all, Offense all played a role. Here is my assessment of the offense:

What changed on the Vikings 2017 – 2018 on offense

Coaching:
Defense – The Same
ST – The Same
Offense – Shurmer out, JDF in. Sparano out in AUG(!!!!) Barone in

Players:
QB: Keenum out / Cousins in
LG: Easton out in training camp / Compton in
RG: Berger retires / Remmers in
RB: Mckinnon out / get Cook back

First QB: There is no possible scenario where Keenum is not a downgrade from Cousins. I’m sorry, but it just isn’t true. There is a reason Keenum was cut by Denver this offseason.
OL: Guards were obviously downgraded due to injury and retirement.
On a purely player basis it looks like we got worse at OG, but better at QB.

Overall stats:

Stats: 2017 Offense: 382 Points / 1055 plays / 356 Ypg Turnover margin +5 Pts Game 23.9
2018 Offense: 360 Points / 1003 play / 345 Ypg Turnover margin 0 pts Game 22.5

So why was the offense worse? Why fewer plays? Was the downgrade at both guard positions such a massive disaster that it offset any incremental increase from Cousins vs. Keenum? Given that QB is the single most important position in sports I find this argument completely unpersuasive. If we got better at QB, then getting worse at OG should at worse be a push. So what happened?

Answer: Coaching.

Quite simply, JDF was a terrible OC for us. Add in the fact that we lost our OL coach to an untimely death literaly days before training camp started and then a few weeks later we lost our best guard to a neck injury and it adds up to chaos on the OL and chaos on offense in general. That is how the season started. We also saw they he was prone to disasterous game planning errors. The first one was Buffalo, that loss was hideous in that it failed to account for their strength on DL. The next one was NE where BB completely owned him. The last one was SEA, which ultimately cost him his job. JDF couldn’t handle the readjustment phase of his NFL stint as an OC. The likes of BB and Fangio owned him.

So now we get to today and Free Agency. Everyone is mad about the OL. I offer a few salient points:

#1: The biggest issue the team faced going into this season was the offensive coaching staff. IT needed to be better. To that end we made a splash and hired Gary Kubiak. I think this hire has been woefully under-appreciated to this point.

1.5: Do not listen to the local sports media. They are concocting this narrative that Zimmer is protecting his defensive guys to the detriment of the team. This is absurd. This line of reasoning is basically: “We should jettison some of our great core defensive guys to pay some FA OL a ton of money with no guarantee he’ll perform.” If you have a top 5 defense (which we do) why would EVER make that kind of move. IMO, this is the height of idiocy, but it is the media so it is just another day at the office.

#2: The teams cap situation all but guaranteed they wouldn’t make any big signings. The fact they haven’t should be considered at worse par for the course. You can be mad about this, but the cap is what it is. It almost feels like fans are getting mad at a one legged man for not being able to walk on two legs. If there is no cap to spend, then why are you mad they didn’t spend cap they didn’t have?

#3: Look at how NE won the SB. They were able to get competitive play out of a bunch of OL that they picked up late in Free Agency and spent an entire season coaching up so they would be competitive in Decmeber/January. This is the blue print the Vikings must follow. Note I say must because their cap situation demands it. We were never going to build a huge OL in free agency in 2019. So to this point, it circles back to #1: The Coaching hires.

So in conclusion: I feel that the 2018 issues were a combination of three things: JDF was a bad hire, the insurance against JDF being weak died a few days before camp started, and we had injuries concentrated at Guard. I will add that drafting Mike Hughes over Hernandez was probably a mistake, but the timing on that is questionable. When we drafted Tony Sparano was still our OL Coach and Nick Easton was still thought to be our LG.

2019 is going to be all about whether or not Stefanski/Kubiak can get back to the level of competency on offense that we saw with Shurmer/Sparano and if Kubiak can help make our OL more competitive through successful coaching. IMO the incremental (if any) improvement of the OL from September to November will be the key thing to watch next season.

[Dakotavike]

Great post!!! I'm as annoyed as anybody over the status of our O-Line. But I really don't understand why some of you want to fix it via FA. Even if we had the money (which we don't), and there was a Stud FA OL (which there isn't) why would you want to spend up for a 1, maybe 2, year rental. Why not build OL through the draft where we have these guys for significant amount of time? Hey I get it, I was ticked we didn't grab Hernandez last year but that's water under the bridge. I, personally, am holding out hope that we go heavy on OL in this year's draft and build it the right way. I agree with what PHP said in a different post, let's all just calm down a bit and see what happens in the draft and what influence Kubiak has on this team.

[VikingPaul73]

I said in another post that I hope Kubiak is strictly focusing on analyzing OL draft prospects and ranking them. I don’t have faith in Speilman but if he defers to Kubiak this draft maybe there is hope

Here is a question - what if at #18 some stud top 10 overall defensive player has dropped to us, and the best OG available is maybe 30 overall. What would you do????? It’s unfortunate that our OL situation is such a mess that this is even a legitimate question.

[fiestavike]

I said in another post that I hope Kubiak is strictly focusing on analyzing OL draft prospects and ranking them. I don’t have faith in Speilman but if he defers to Kubiak this draft maybe there is hope

Here is a question - what if at #18 some stud top 10 overall defensive player has dropped to us, and the best OG available is maybe 30 overall. What would you do????? It’s unfortunate that our OL situation is such a mess that this is even a legitimate question.

Its a tough dilemma. I think the second round is going to see an incredible number of OL players selected. I might lose my nerve and pull the trigger on the OL at this point, assuming I couldn't trade back.

[mansquatch]

What annoys me is the lack of any credence folks pay to the change in the Offensive coaching staff from the '17 season through today. Sparano dying something like three days before training camp was a monstrous factor in the performance of the 2018 OL AND the 2018 Rushing game, yet it is completely over looked. Add to this their best guard at the time, Easton, going down in the middle of training camp and the OL die was all but cast going into the season. What NFL team could have navigated that turmoil and emerged victorious. Zimmer has given interviews where he has said that Sparano was a huge voice in the rushing attack and there was just no replacing him in 2018. Zimmer has alos given interviews where he has been positive towards JDF, saying he fired him more to spark something. tha because he felt he was a bad coach. I think the reality is more that a young guy like JDF just didn't have the coaching chops to both learn on the job AND deal with that kind of tumult at the onset of the season. (I doubt few would have those chops at his level of experience.)

Add to this what BB did with a bunch of nobodies on OL this past season and it is obvious that there is more than one way to skin this cat.

It is obvious what strategy the team is employing here, but people are emotionally invest in this, so they are going to vent their frustrations. Me, I think the venting is a waste of time and not even pointed in the right direction, but I'm a minority.

[CharVike]

Great post and very well thought out. The Pats have a great organization no doubt. But they always have an easy road. Look at that division. BB dominates it. It's a cake walk and he's able to rest and develop his team for the late season push. That's a huge advantage. Us and the Pack had to travel to their place. We stuck with them but came up short. Send them to us and GB it changes the whole thing. But our O has many problems and the OL is only the beginning. Our TE is terrible but there's nothing in the hole. I could go on.

[mansquatch]

CharVike, terrible division or not, they coached up a group of mid round picks and UDFAs to become a competitive OL in a single season. One that held it's own against the likes of Suh and Donald in the SB. The cake division doesn't mean much once they get to the post season, at that point it is kill or be killed. If it was all about a cake division they would have been eaten by one of the other teams. That didn't happen.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Excellent post mansquatch! Very well thought out. I agree with pretty much everything here.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Great post!!! I'm as annoyed as anybody over the status of our O-Line. But I really don't understand why some of you want to fix it via FA. Even if we had the money (which we don't), and there was a Stud FA OL (which there isn't) why would you want to spend up for a 1, maybe 2, year rental. Why not build OL through the draft where we have these guys for significant amount of time? Hey I get it, I was ticked we didn't grab Hernandez last year but that's water under the bridge. I, personally, am holding out hope that we go heavy on OL in this year's draft and build it the right way. I agree with what PHP said in a different post, let's all just calm down a bit and see what happens in the draft and what influence Kubiak has on this team.

Exactly. I keep saying this every year. Within the first few days of free agency, Spielman hardly ever goes nuts and in turn, he doesnt need to. It's smart not to and build through the draft. However, fans continue to freak out every year saying we need this and need that and he isnt spending this during free agency. You think they would learn by now that that isnt Rick Spielman. When you have a weak OL free agent class, why dip into it within the first few days? For what? So you can get into bidding wars with teams and overpay a guy like Billy Turner or Bobby Hart? Those two guys are like the equivalent of a Rashod Hill or Tom Compton talent wise. One year of decent play maximum and multiple years of horrible play (Case Keenum) and they are getting fat contracts. You then overpay them and then what happens? They are either cut or traded within 2 years and you're soaking dead money. NOT a smart move.

I forgot what thread it was in but I listed starters on our current roster for offense, defense and ST and we had FOUR total free agent starters on this roster currently. Kirk Cousins, Linval Joseph, Riley Reiff and Matt Wile. The rest we either drafted or signed as undrafted free agents. And in turn, we have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL. But supposedly our GM doesnt know what he is doing. He has nearly built this entire roster through the draft when it comes to starters. This is exactly why free agency should be taken with a grain of salt. Especially with an area of weakness like the OL. The last two years he has drafted Elflein and O'Neill. And that trend will continue this year. I didnt mind if Barr walked but I give Barr money 10 times out of 10 over someone like Billy Turner in free agency. It's just not a smart move no matter what way you look at it.

[StumpHunter]

I hope the biggest issue was actually coaching, since OC and oline coach are the only things that will change significantly.

Two rookies at guard or bargain bin vets will not be a big upgrade over Remmers and Compton. We will have the same WRs, same TE, could be worse at RB and have same QB.

The coaching will have to be incredible to make this group top 10 again.

Fewer plays is a result of our QB being horrible at converting on 3rd down btw. Case was great at it, Cousins was about as bad as a QB with Diggs and Theilen could be at converting on 3rd.

[mansquatch]

Stump, in 2018 the only things that changed were OC, OL C, LG/RG/RT, and QB. IMO we got better at QB. I do not find it persuasive that the OL personnel changes alone were enough to both offset the improvement at QB and drag down our overall efficacy. I said it during the season as well, the driver was the coaching, specifically the OC. So to me, if you fix the coaching then you should expect improvement on the field.

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[PacificNorseWest]

They couldn't run the football.

Sure, DeFelippo lost his way there a bit and there wasn't much emphasis on it, but when they did run, there were few explosive plays. Cook was hurt and inconsistent, Murray was meh and the offensive line couldn't open up a hole. To me, that was the #1 biggest issue. Not being able to run the ball ended making things much harder for Cousins down the stretch and while I was not impressed with how Kirk played in a lot of those games, if they were able to run the ball, he may have looked completely different and for the better.

[S197]

The Patriots OL played well especially considering the investment but the reason they won the SB was because of the defense. They held teams to under a 50% completion rate in the playoffs. The last team to do that was the 2000 Ravens.

[StumpHunter]

The Patriots OL played well especially considering the investment but the reason they won the SB was because of the defense. They held teams to under a 50% completion rate in the playoffs. The last team to do that was the 2000 Ravens.

It is easy to block for Brady. That is why the Pat's are willing to let their LT walk two years in a row, while most teams would be desperate to keep their LT.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Stump, in 2018 the only things that changed were OC, OL C, LG/RG/RT, and QB. IMO we got better at QB. I do not find it persuasive that the OL personnel changes alone were enough to both offset the improvement at QB and drag down our overall efficacy. I said it during the season as well, the driver was the coaching, specifically the OC. So to me, if you fix the coaching then you should expect improvement on the field.

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Yeah, Cousins HUGE 8 win season was so much better then his predecessor's
lol.