Re: A little early but college QBs

[StumpHunter]

Do you know what gets hyped? Arm strength. Same as in baseball. Give me a pitcher that has great control and has a good grip on the mental part (knows how to pitch) over someone that can throw hard any day.

I am right there with you.

Arm strength, for the most part, is completely arbitrary measurement that is utilized too frequently as a reason for a QB's shortcomings.

You can find evidence of this by following a free agent QB move from team to team. The coverage on one team will talk about how his limited arm make it difficult for him to make all the throws, while the other will talk about how hard he throws the football and how that makes it easy for him to fit it into a tight window.

In the end, most QBs who enter the NFL have the arm strength to make all the throws. Where they fail is in their accuracy, release, footwork and struggles reading the defense.

[CharVike]

Do you know what gets hyped? Arm strength. Same as in baseball. Give me a pitcher that has great control and has a good grip on the mental part (knows how to pitch) over someone that can throw hard any day.

I like a guy that can throw all the passes. Like the year we had Farve. That season saving throw against SF is a throw that not many can make include the great Tau. Doesn't have the arm talent. There have been tremendous QBs that didn't have great arms. Montana won a bunch of Super Bowls. He slipped in the draft because of physical limitations. I'm not saying a guy can't play without it. What I'm saying if I have a low pick I will pick the guy with an arm. In baseball I like pitchers that throw fast. Have there been create slower pitchers. Yes. But the top strikeout guys usually throw hard. Of course there are some that don't. Nolan Ryan threw hard. It was tough to hit the ball when he was on. Of course he gave up some runs in his career. I know that. But when he struck guys out he was out. When a guy hits the ball others need to be involved and things can happen like an error. Bottom line I like arm strength in a QB. Others don't think it really matters. Speilman is like that picking Ponder and Teddy. No arm QBs. This Tau guy was considered no 1. I wouldn't do it if I had that pick even before the injury. Kap has the guy in the HOF already. I also like speed. Speed kills. See Moss. I also like size. Others don't care. It's different opinions based on the physical skills people like. And I realize there is other stuff involved.

[VikingLord]

I just want to clarify that in the context of my last post to this thread, I do not consider "arm talent" to be the same as "arm strength".

Arm talent is the ability to make accurate and decisive throws without ideal body position or footwork. Someone with arm talent can also have a strong arm, but just because someone has a strong arm doesn't mean they have talent per se.

As far as the Alabama QB is concerned, his injury is likely to drop him in the draft, especially if his recovery prospects aren't clear. There is a chance, however small, that he might slide to where the Vikings could gamble on him. It would be a gamble in that situation and would probably require them to use their 1st rounder on him, so Spielman would have to be willing to roll the dice that he would recover fully at some point. But based on his play, *if* healthy he would be an absolute steal along the lines of getting Moss or Cook where the Vikings got them.

[Dames]

I just want to clarify that in the context of my last post to this thread, I do not consider "arm talent" to be the same as "arm strength".

Arm talent is the ability to make accurate and decisive throws without ideal body position or footwork. Someone with arm talent can also have a strong arm, but just because someone has a strong arm doesn't mean they have talent per se.

As far as the Alabama QB is concerned, his injury is likely to drop him in the draft, especially if his recovery prospects aren't clear. There is a chance, however small, that he might slide to where the Vikings could gamble on him. It would be a gamble in that situation and would probably require them to use their 1st rounder on him, so Spielman would have to be willing to roll the dice that he would recover fully at some point. But based on his play, *if* healthy he would be an absolute steal along the lines of getting Moss or Cook where the Vikings got them.

As well as Cousins is playing, the chance to get a franchise QB at the rookie salary would be kinda dumb to pass up. If Cousins continues to play this well for the rest of the year, I'm pretty sure they extend him anyway... and I can easily see Rick ignoring QB in the draft again in that case. I wish they wouldn't (even if Cousins leads us to a SB win), but the track record says otherwise.

[VikingLord]

I just want to clarify that in the context of my last post to this thread, I do not consider "arm talent" to be the same as "arm strength".

Arm talent is the ability to make accurate and decisive throws without ideal body position or footwork. Someone with arm talent can also have a strong arm, but just because someone has a strong arm doesn't mean they have talent per se.

As far as the Alabama QB is concerned, his injury is likely to drop him in the draft, especially if his recovery prospects aren't clear. There is a chance, however small, that he might slide to where the Vikings could gamble on him. It would be a gamble in that situation and would probably require them to use their 1st rounder on him, so Spielman would have to be willing to roll the dice that he would recover fully at some point. But based on his play, *if* healthy he would be an absolute steal along the lines of getting Moss or Cook where the Vikings got them.

As well as Cousins is playing, the chance to get a franchise QB at the rookie salary would be kinda dumb to pass up. If Cousins continues to play this well for the rest of the year, I'm pretty sure they extend him anyway... and I can easily see Rick ignoring QB in the draft again in that case. I wish they wouldn't (even if Cousins leads us to a SB win), but the track record says otherwise.

Yeah, I could see that, but if Spielman really is a best-player-available GM, he'd have to seriously consider it even if Cousins is playing well. I just think back to the year when the Vikings passed on Aaron Rodgers twice, and likewise, how wise the decisions were to take Moss when they already had Carter and Reed and the decision to take AD when they already had Chester Taylor.

If Cousins continues to play well, great. Maybe the Vikings have someone they can dangle in trade then ala what the Patriots did with Jimmy G.

[CharVike]

As well as Cousins is playing, the chance to get a franchise QB at the rookie salary would be kinda dumb to pass up. If Cousins continues to play this well for the rest of the year, I'm pretty sure they extend him anyway... and I can easily see Rick ignoring QB in the draft again in that case. I wish they wouldn't (even if Cousins leads us to a SB win), but the track record says otherwise.

Yeah, I could see that, but if Spielman really is a best-player-available GM, he'd have to seriously consider it even if Cousins is playing well. I just think back to the year when the Vikings passed on Aaron Rodgers twice, and likewise, how wise the decisions were to take Moss when they already had Carter and Reed and the decision to take AD when they already had Chester Taylor.

If Cousins continues to play well, great. Maybe the Vikings have someone they can dangle in trade then ala what the Patriots did with Jimmy G.

We should never shy away from a QB because we already have our guy. QBs have great value. I have said this in other posts before Cousins great run that I feel he is the best since Fran. I still do. But I hope Speilman keeps his eyes open. I liked Drew Lock last year and we passed. I thought that was a huge mistake. The guy hasn't done anything yet but it's not over. He will need time. I really like this LSU kid. I did before the Bama game. Now he'll shoot up the board. He's still the same guy. 2nd to 3rd round talent not No 1 overall. But a team will take him early for fear of losing him. I don't blame them. But they better remember he will need time before he can play. With that if a kid with skill is there he better pull the trigger. Even if it's round one. QBs are too important. We should all know this by now.

[StumpHunter]

Yeah, I could see that, but if Spielman really is a best-player-available GM, he'd have to seriously consider it even if Cousins is playing well. I just think back to the year when the Vikings passed on Aaron Rodgers twice, and likewise, how wise the decisions were to take Moss when they already had Carter and Reed and the decision to take AD when they already had Chester Taylor.

If Cousins continues to play well, great. Maybe the Vikings have someone they can dangle in trade then ala what the Patriots did with Jimmy G.

We should never shy away from a QB because we already have our guy. QBs have great value. I have said this in other posts before Cousins great run that I feel he is the best since Fran. I still do. But I hope Speilman keeps his eyes open. I liked Drew Lock last year and we passed. I thought that was a huge mistake. The guy hasn't done anything yet but it's not over. He will need time. I really like this LSU kid. I did before the Bama game. Now he'll shoot up the board. He's still the same guy. 2nd to 3rd round talent not No 1 overall. But a team will take him early for fear of losing him. I don't blame them. But they better remember he will need time before he can play. With that if a kid with skill is there he better pull the trigger. Even if it's round one. QBs are too important. We should all know this by now.

It is a good idea in theory, but it is an idea rarely used in practice. If we extend Cousins, there is zero chance the Vikings sniff a QB earlier than round 4. If another Jackson falls to us in round 1, we won't take him. If another Wilson falls to us in round 3, no shot. We will have the 12th-16th best QB until his contract ends, and our GM will be happy with that. Not because it will help us win a SB, but because it helps him keep his job.

[J. Kapp 11]

I just want to clarify that in the context of my last post to this thread, I do not consider "arm talent" to be the same as "arm strength".

Arm talent is the ability to make accurate and decisive throws without ideal body position or footwork. Someone with arm talent can also have a strong arm, but just because someone has a strong arm doesn't mean they have talent per se.

As far as the Alabama QB is concerned, his injury is likely to drop him in the draft, especially if his recovery prospects aren't clear. There is a chance, however small, that he might slide to where the Vikings could gamble on him. It would be a gamble in that situation and would probably require them to use their 1st rounder on him, so Spielman would have to be willing to roll the dice that he would recover fully at some point. But based on his play, *if* healthy he would be an absolute steal along the lines of getting Moss or Cook where the Vikings got them.

As well as Cousins is playing, the chance to get a franchise QB at the rookie salary would be kinda dumb to pass up. If Cousins continues to play this well for the rest of the year, I'm pretty sure they extend him anyway... and I can easily see Rick ignoring QB in the draft again in that case. I wish they wouldn't (even if Cousins leads us to a SB win), but the track record says otherwise.

It's a really tough choice.

If Kirk Cousins can continue playing the way he's played over the past 7 weeks, he's our guy. It's that simple. Drafting Tua might be good for owning the rights to somebody with trade value, but it doesn't help the team win games. Ideally, your first-round pick is somebody who can come in and play right away and make significant contributions. It would be a steal to get Tua late in the first or early in the second, but it wouldn't be like Moss or Cook because he simply wouldn't play. That's especially true if Cousins gets an extension.

People will rip Spielman if Tua is available and he doesn't draft him. I wouldn't rip him either way. I can see the benefit of drafting him, but I also would understand if he passed.

[Dames]

It's a really tough choice.

If Kirk Cousins can continue playing the way he's played over the past 7 weeks, he's our guy. It's that simple. Drafting Tua might be good for owning the rights to somebody with trade value, but it doesn't help the team win games. Ideally, your first-round pick is somebody who can come in and play right away and make significant contributions. It would be a steal to get Tua late in the first or early in the second, but it wouldn't be like Moss or Cook because he simply wouldn't play. That's especially true if Cousins gets an extension.

People will rip Spielman if Tua is available and he doesn't draft him. I wouldn't rip him either way. I can see the benefit of drafting him, but I also would understand if he passed.

You can argue either way probably. My dream plan is having a QB to groom, but that doesn't seem to be something we do much of. It's kind of old-school thinking though. I would love to see them extend Cousins for another year or 2. (Assuming he continues playing well.) And let someone like Tua sit on the bench. After a couple of years, they can let Cousins go.

It's unlikely it works that well, but it has certainly happened. Realistically, if Cousins continues to play this well, he isn't going anywhere, and why would we want him to?

[J. Kapp 11]

It's a really tough choice.

If Kirk Cousins can continue playing the way he's played over the past 7 weeks, he's our guy. It's that simple. Drafting Tua might be good for owning the rights to somebody with trade value, but it doesn't help the team win games. Ideally, your first-round pick is somebody who can come in and play right away and make significant contributions. It would be a steal to get Tua late in the first or early in the second, but it wouldn't be like Moss or Cook because he simply wouldn't play. That's especially true if Cousins gets an extension.

People will rip Spielman if Tua is available and he doesn't draft him. I wouldn't rip him either way. I can see the benefit of drafting him, but I also would understand if he passed.

You can argue either way probably. My dream plan is having a QB to groom, but that doesn't seem to be something we do much of. It's kind of old-school thinking though. I would love to see them extend Cousins for another year or 2. (Assuming he continues playing well.) And let someone like Tua sit on the bench. After a couple of years, they can let Cousins go.

It's unlikely it works that well, but it has certainly happened. Realistically, if Cousins continues to play this well, he isn't going anywhere, and why would we want him to?

I hear you, man.

This is also a little different than the Jimmy Garoppolo situation. Jimmy G was a relatively unknown commodity who played for Eastern Illinois, which is Div. 1 Subdivision (formerly 1-AA). Compared to Brady, he was a nobody. You could sit him for 3 years, and nobody bats an eye. Meanwhile, Tua is a multiple-time Heisman candidate for the most high-profile (and arguably the best) college program in the nation at Alabama. A guy like Jimmy G was never going to come into the NFL and start right away. It could be argued that Tua would have been seen as a Day 1 starter had he not gotten hurt. It's tougher to make a guy like Tua sit for 2-3 years. What if he comes in and lights it up in practice, and you've already extended Kirk Cousins? It's a potentially explosive situation. Kirk could have a bad day, and you end up with a divided locker room.

By the way, I remember lobbying for the Vikings to draft Jimmy G. We took Teddy instead.

[Dames]

This is also a little different than the Jimmy Garoppolo situation. Jimmy G was a relatively unknown commodity who played for Eastern Illinois, which is Div. 1 Subdivision (formerly 1-AA). Compared to Brady, he was a nobody. You could sit him for 3 years, and nobody bats an eye. Meanwhile, Tua is a multiple-time Heisman candidate for the most high-profile (and arguably the best) college program in the nation at Alabama. A guy like Jimmy G was never going to come into the NFL and start right away. It could be argued that Tua would have been seen as a Day 1 starter had he not gotten hurt. It's tougher to make a guy like Tua sit for 2-3 years. What if he comes in and lights it up in practice, and you've already extended Kirk Cousins? It's a potentially explosive situation. Kirk could have a bad day, and you end up with a divided locker room.

I think the extent of the injury makes a difference, but if he's healthy then there is always a concern about a schism. Especially because he's high-profile. The players all have the same emotions we do really. Sure, it's a job for them, but your potential replacement sitting one position below you waiting for you to screw up at your job would really make work #### sometimes. I can't imagine dealing with that.

By the way, I remember lobbying for the Vikings to draft Jimmy G. We took Teddy instead.

Oh, that WAS you. I actually remember that, but couldn't recall who was on that kick. Jimmy G looks to be on a good path, Teddy could be too. I'll take current Cousins over either at this point though.

[StumpHunter]

You can argue either way probably. My dream plan is having a QB to groom, but that doesn't seem to be something we do much of. It's kind of old-school thinking though. I would love to see them extend Cousins for another year or 2. (Assuming he continues playing well.) And let someone like Tua sit on the bench. After a couple of years, they can let Cousins go.

It's unlikely it works that well, but it has certainly happened. Realistically, if Cousins continues to play this well, he isn't going anywhere, and why would we want him to?

I hear you, man.

This is also a little different than the Jimmy Garoppolo situation. Jimmy G was a relatively unknown commodity who played for Eastern Illinois, which is Div. 1 Subdivision (formerly 1-AA). Compared to Brady, he was a nobody. You could sit him for 3 years, and nobody bats an eye. Meanwhile, Tua is a multiple-time Heisman candidate for the most high-profile (and arguably the best) college program in the nation at Alabama. A guy like Jimmy G was never going to come into the NFL and start right away. It could be argued that Tua would have been seen as a Day 1 starter had he not gotten hurt. It's tougher to make a guy like Tua sit for 2-3 years. What if he comes in and lights it up in practice, and you've already extended Kirk Cousins? It's a potentially explosive situation. Kirk could have a bad day, and you end up with a divided locker room.

By the way, I remember lobbying for the Vikings to draft Jimmy G. We took Teddy instead.

Jimmy G. is far from a proven commodity.

His stats are a bit bloated right now after playing AZ twice in 3 games and throwing for 8 TDs in those two games, but the guy throws a ton of picks, is inconsistent and is being carried by an elite defense and run game. In fact, 11 of his 18 TDs have come against the Bengals and AZ. He has thrown 7 TDs to 7 Ints in his other 8 games.

I will also add that the Patriots did not get good value out of Jimmy G. They gave up a 2nd to draft him, got a couple of solid starts out of him before he got injured, and then got a 2nd for him a couple years later.

They also lost value on Brisset, who they traded for basically nothing after drafting him in the 3rd.

Cassel is the one example where the Pats drafted a QB, and then traded him for better value than they gave up to draft him. To get that better value they needed Brady to go down for an entire season so Cassel could play, or it is very unlikely any team gives up anything for him.

Drafting and trading a QB who almost never sees the field in the regular season is incredibly rare, so unless the starter gets hurt, you are probably wasting a draft pick on a guy who you don't plan on grooming to take over for, or become the starter.

[J. Kapp 11]

I hear you, man.

This is also a little different than the Jimmy Garoppolo situation. Jimmy G was a relatively unknown commodity who played for Eastern Illinois, which is Div. 1 Subdivision (formerly 1-AA). Compared to Brady, he was a nobody. You could sit him for 3 years, and nobody bats an eye. Meanwhile, Tua is a multiple-time Heisman candidate for the most high-profile (and arguably the best) college program in the nation at Alabama. A guy like Jimmy G was never going to come into the NFL and start right away. It could be argued that Tua would have been seen as a Day 1 starter had he not gotten hurt. It's tougher to make a guy like Tua sit for 2-3 years. What if he comes in and lights it up in practice, and you've already extended Kirk Cousins? It's a potentially explosive situation. Kirk could have a bad day, and you end up with a divided locker room.

By the way, I remember lobbying for the Vikings to draft Jimmy G. We took Teddy instead.

Jimmy G. is far from a proven commodity.

His stats are a bit bloated right now after playing AZ twice in 3 games and throwing for 8 TDs in those two games, but the guy throws a ton of picks, is inconsistent and is being carried by an elite defense and run game. In fact, 11 of his 18 TDs have come against the Bengals and AZ. He has thrown 7 TDs to 7 Ints in his other 8 games.

I will also add that the Patriots did not get good value out of Jimmy G. They gave up a 2nd to draft him, got a couple of solid starts out of him before he got injured, and then got a 2nd for him a couple years later.

They also lost value on Brisset, who they traded for basically nothing after drafting him in the 3rd.

Cassel is the one example where the Pats drafted a QB, and then traded him for better value than they gave up to draft him. To get that better value they needed Brady to go down for an entire season so Cassel could play, or it is very unlikely any team gives up anything for him.

Drafting and trading a QB who almost never sees the field in the regular season is incredibly rare, so unless the starter gets hurt, you are probably wasting a draft pick on a guy who you don't plan on grooming to take over for, or become the starter.

Just so you know ... this position will make you very unpopular here on VMB. That said, I agree totally.

If you're taking a quarterback in the first round, you're likely not a contender. Either that or you're borderline, such as Baltimore taking Lamar Jackson at the end of the first last year. Baltimore was OK, but not great last year. If you're taking a QB EARLY in the first round, you're likely a dumpster fire and have plenty of other problems.

If I were a GM, my first- and second-round picks ideally would guys who can play right away. That's typically not the quarterback position.

"Groom" guys at the QB position are usually second round or lower, more often lower. How many second-round QBs do you see taken? Not many. If you get lucky and draft a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, and they play right away and win, then good for you. You've hit the lottery. Kirk Cousins is a better example of how most teams use "groom" picks. He was taken in the fourth and given little chance to play behind RGIII. But he grew as a pro and got his chance when RGIII got hurt. Now he's in the MVP conversation. That's a great example of a groom-QB working out. Much, much rarer are the guys like Aaron Rodgers, who are taken in the first but don't play for 3 years.

Sometimes I wonder ... what if the Packers had moved on from Favre in Rodgers' second year? Would they have lost in the 2007 NFC Championship game, when Favre threw the boneheaded pick late in the game at Lambeau? Hard to know, but it's an interesting question. In that case, would the Packers have ruined New England's perfect season in the Super Bowl? Honestly, as a certified Packer hater, I'm kinda glad they stuck with Favre.

[mansquatch]

I wonder if they are going to try to bring Teddy back. Zimmer loves him so it is not hard to see that approach. That being said, he'll command vet QB money and will be highly sought after in FA this off season. Then again, I suspect the rush on "Lamar Jackson" clones in the draft so you might get a more traditional talent later than you might normally see him in the draft. Same could be true of other positions.

However, I have to say I agree on Cousins. He has played up to his contract this season.

Honestly this topic probably should be broadened out into "future of the salary cap".

I suspect we are going to see some interest changes on defense this offseason. Some proven commodities (Rhodes) are likely to be asked to restructure or get cut outright. The performance of the defense has taken a step back this year, not a big one, but enough to warrant notice while the offense has more than carried the water. so the team is going to have to decide which mix of players gives them the best shot going forward. They are going to have to mix in young talent to stay competitive within the cap.

I think we'll see at least one of our CB depart. I can see Reiff as a candidate for cap casualty or restructure. He has been good, but not great, still they do not need more holes on the OL. For that matter, does Stefanski get offered a job and we lose our OC again?

Lots of different directions it could go, but probably too early to tell. It will be a fascinating offseason for sure.

[J. Kapp 11]

I wonder if they are going to try to bring Teddy back. Zimmer loves him so it is not hard to see that approach. That being said, he'll command vet QB money and will be highly sought after in FA this off season. Then again, I suspect the rush on "Lamar Jackson" clones in the draft so you might get a more traditional talent later than you might normally see him in the draft. Same could be true of other positions.

However, I have to say I agree on Cousins. He has played up to his contract this season.

Honestly this topic probably should be broadened out into "future of the salary cap".

I suspect we are going to see some interest changes on defense this offseason. Some proven commodities (Rhodes) are likely to be asked to restructure or get cut outright. The performance of the defense has taken a step back this year, not a big one, but enough to warrant notice while the offense has more than carried the water. so the team is going to have to decide which mix of players gives them the best shot going forward. They are going to have to mix in young talent to stay competitive within the cap.

I think we'll see at least one of our CB depart. I can see Reiff as a candidate for cap casualty or restructure. He has been good, but not great, still they do not need more holes on the OL. For that matter, does Stefanski get offered a job and we lose our OC again?

Lots of different directions it could go, but probably too early to tell. It will be a fascinating offseason for sure.

The question about the future of the salary cap is a really intriguing one. And a very intelligent take on your part.

There are five premium positions in the NFL. Quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, wide receiver, and cornerback. To win a Super Bowl, you've got to be good at all of them. New England has won Super Bowls without top-of-the-top wide receivers, but part of that is because Brady is SO good. Teams have to invest so heavily in those five positions that it leaves them hamstrung at others.

The whole point of the salary cap is to maintain parity, and I guess in some ways, it's done the job. Teams in the biggest markets (New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago) aren't the dominant teams, while small-market teams like Kansas City, Green Bay and (yes) Minnesota are very competitive. The premium isn't on how much money you can make, but how well you can manage the cap. Which really is code for "winning without paying huge salaries." But that introduces problems of another color. One is that running backs, whose life expectancy in the NFL is very short, are paid comparatively little for taking the most physical punishment. It's the lead position when it comes to the whole winning-without-paying-huge-salaries idea. Safety is another position like that.

New England is in a unique position. In fact, I'd say one of the most key players in New England's ability to win is Gisele Bundchen. She's worth roughly a half billion dollars -- far more than Tom Brady. How many quarterbacks are married to women who are richer than they are? It allows Tom Brady to take less money, even though he SHOULD be the highest-paid quarterback in the game. That allows the Patriots cap flexibility that other teams simply don't have.

The cap needs to be re-examined. Teams shouldn't be penalized so severely for taking care of the five premium positions.