Vikings Message Board.Com

It seems like every season the Cowboys are hyped as some super-talented group. Every season they prove to be overrated. So I’ll believe it when I see it. And maybe after Sunday, I will believe it. But they have to show me something first. These guys couldn’t cover Christian Watson. What are they going to do with [Justin] Jefferson?

soflavike wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:59 am I've been predicting a "back down to earth" game for a few weeks, and we've kept winning. So, I'll predict the Cowboys cover the spread and beat the Vikings. Cowboys 23-16 (Joseph misses a PAT, of course)

JJBreaksRecords wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:15 am Cowpies 24
Vikings 13

VikingsFan84 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:47 am After the big win against Buffalo, I do not see Vikings winning this game since they are tired from celebrating

Cowboys-31
Vikings-24

VikingLord wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 2:38 pm I was puzzled as to why the Cowboys were favored in this game by what amounts to more than the typical +3 the home team gets by default, so I've been doing some reading and it appears the betting line comes down to 2 major factors:

- The Cowboys are statistically better than the Vikings. The Cowboys are like 4th in DVOA for yards per play differential between their offense and defense, while the Vikings are 17th in the same metric and actually are negative in that metric (meaning their defense gives up more yards per play than their offense gains). This differential plays out across other metrics as well. For example, the Cowboys are +47 in point differential on the season, while the Vikings are +35 I believe. And on it goes in multiple statistical categories where the Cowboys have just been objectively better even if that isn't necessarily reflected in their overall W-L record.

- An overriding lack of belief that the Vikings are as good as their record indicates, while many seem to believe that Dallas is one of the better overall teams in the league.

The first factor is more objective and hard to argue, although of course there is nuance in the stats, while the second factor is very subjective and comes down to how people generally view the talent on the two teams.

To be completely honest, I can understand why the betting line favors the Cowboys for that reason. The Vikings are 8-1, but they have yet to have a statement win or even a comfortable win. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have more losses, but have had several fairly comfortable wins this season, and did so in many of their games with Cooper Rush at QB. With Prescott back under center, the logic goes that they should be even better.

I'm a little surprised that the OT loss to what is turning out to be a bad Packers team is not weighing more heavily, especially given how Prescott struggled at times, but the Cowboys managed pretty convincing wins against the Lions and Bears in the two games prior to that and carried a 2 TD lead late into the game against the Packers and that must be carrying more weight.

Personally, I'm not worried about this game because I think you can throw the stats out the window. The Vikings may fall behind or even be behind late. They may again need some seemingly miraculous plays at key moments. I just believe they will make the plays that need to be made and the ball will bounce their way. Could the Vikings go out and dominate? I suppose they could. They've been playing better overall and more consistently, but even if that doesn't happen or Dallas gets ahead I'm just not worried.

I feel like the Vikings are starting to put it together, and this is the time of the year when good teams do that. Add their good fortune to that mix, and I think the Vikings win.

Over the past 20 years, NFL teams are 127-133 in the game immediately following a road game that went to overtime, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. -- Kevin Seifert

Texas Vike wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:21 pm To add to the "things to consider" box:

Over the past 20 years, NFL teams are 127-133 in the game immediately following a road game that went to overtime, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. -- Kevin Seifert

Did anyone else catch the celebration video on youtube of the Vikes after the win over the Bills? That was an EMOTIONAL celebration. Maybe that's what the do every time they win, what do I know? But my big fear is that their emotional and physical tanks are dry and they come out flat. I'm also worried about Booth Jr. getting his first start. I probably shouldn't worry, because the Cowboys were too stupid to hold onto Amari Cooper and gave him away for a 5th (why didn't WE trade for him?!), leaving CeeDee and ??? Gallup? Noah Brown? An overpaid, mediocre TE named Schultz?

We seem to have the Cowboys number in the playoffs and they have ours in the regular season. But that was in the Mike Zimmer era and before Kirk-O Chains had emerged. I think we do it again: a 4th quarter comeback for yet another emotional win. 24-21.