Arif Hasan at The Athletic has a really good article today about Cousins. It’s incredibly fair, even though it concludes that he’ll never be “elite.” It presents a ton of advanced statistical evidence to support the premise, but even more than that, it gets into the MIND of Kirk Cousins by using excerpts from his own book, “Game Changer.”
The Athletic is behind a paywall, so you have to be a subscriber to access it. Here are a few key paragraphs.
This is an issue many of us have talked about, but we don’t state it as well as Hasan does here.
Cousins is the rare quarterback who puts in consistently impressive statistical performances without the wins to follow. Though it’s true that it isn’t necessarily fair to judge quarterbacks on their win-loss records — few consider the all-time leader in winning percentage among retired quarterbacks, Daryle Lamonica, to be the best quarterback in NFL history — it’s curious that one can go so long in a career of high-level statistical play while producing a 59-59-2 record as the starter. After all, quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and wins should coincide with QB performance after a point.
Here’s some statistical evidence that Cousins hasn’t been effective when forced to throw when behind by two scores or less in the last 10 minutes of games. This is among quarterbacks since 1999.
On that point, Cousins hasn’t been particularly effective. Ben Baldwin, a football analytics researcher and contributor to The Athletic, has looked extensively at quarterbacks when playing from behind (within a two-score margin) with less than 10 minutes left. Below is a chart of how often a drive has succeeded after adjusting for field position and time remaining. (Cousins is there at No. 75.)
One great point Hasan makes is that on first and second down before the final 10 minutes of play, Cousins ranks a respectable 13th (out of 42) in EPA per play. But on third downs and all downs inside the final 10 minutes, he ranks 38th. That’s fairly strong evidence that Cousins is not a clutch performer, much stronger than counting stats such as 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives.
The question Hasan tries to answer all of this is “why?” Many Cousins supporters point to a lack of a supporting cast, particularly offensive line. Hasan illuminates some personality traits that likely have much more to do with it.
In his book, Cousins identified some pivotal moments in his college career that ended up shaping his understanding of and approach to football. The most relevant might be his first conversation with then-Michigan State quarterbacks coach Dave Warner. Warner asked Cousins the most important thing a quarterback needed to do to be successful. After Cousins gave a rambling answer, Warner responded: “Make good decisions.”
That anecdote leads a chapter called “Spartan QBs Make Good Decisions,” and it’s clear that this thinking resonates throughout the book and his NFL career. In that book is a graphic from the quarterback room that includes another quarterback commandment that might make Vikings fans raise an eyebrow. (It’s a poster that says “Spartan quarterbacks 1. Manage the game 2. Make good decisions.)
Drilled every single day under the framework of evaluating every throw as a process, asking himself if each throw “was a good decision or a bad decision,” Cousins’ quarterbacking style has become systematic and often risk-averse. He often characterizes bad decisions as those that put the ball in harm’s way.
The need for a system exists throughout his being. In Washington, he scheduled his day out in quarter-hour increments, with color-coded activity charts. Helping with that process was an office, an actual office with filing cabinets and desk calendars and swivel chairs. One rarely compliments a quarterback by calling him a “system QB,” but it’s even rarer to see a quarterback embrace it.
Here’s a telling segment that show how Cousins himself is so risk-averse that he even occasionally considers plays with good outcomes to be bad decisions.
But on the last drive, needing a field goal to win, Cousins threaded an impossible needle to land the ball in wide receiver Adam Thielen’s hands and get into field goal range. With Rasul Douglas watching and waiting to make a pick, that certainly seemed to be more of an “intuitive” throw.
And, to Cousins, that was a problem. He should have, he said after the game, thrown it to Tyler Conklin instead for a small gain.
“I mean, I could point to a half-dozen throws there that were too aggressive, and I could argue that that’s one of them. I don’t think you want to live doing that. I think that we got away with it a couple times. I keep saying we’re razor’s edge, but that’s a play where it’s an example of it. The difference between him catching that and making the play he did and it going the other way is very small.”
It boils down to Cousins’ unwillingness to risk making a catastrophic error.
On third down, especially long third downs, the defense can be more comfortable putting a roof on top and keeping defenders deep — allowing receivers to run short. Cousins is happy to take those short throws, which is why his average “air yards to sticks,” or depth of target relative of the line to convert, is well below NFL average on third-and-long. As a result, his third-down conversion rate on long distances (7 to 12 yards) is below average despite boasting a completion percentage in those situations well above the NFL average. He completes more passes than other quarterbacks but can’t seem to make conversions. He’s taking what the defense is giving him, in part because the defense wants him to take it.
That right there sums up why I believe Kirk Cousins will never be elite. It DOES NOT mean I don’t like him. But it does mean I don’t like him at a $45-million cap hit. That’s what you pay quarterbacks who can manipulate a defense … not those who make plays dictated by the defense.
Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah is a guy who specializes in maximizing value and optimizing resource allocation. And THAT is why my not-so-reckless speculation is that the Vikings will move Cousins this offseason. My belief is that it will be to Cleveland because Kevin Stefanski has gotten more out of Cousins than any other coach he’s ever had, and they need competent quarterback play.
And now, I refuse to do any more research on the subject. My position is clear, and I’ve backed it up. Your honor, I rest my case.
