Let's play "Reckless Speculation — Kirk Cousins Edition"

[fiestavike]

There are different ways to measure QB play, and across that divide, I have learned, there is no valuable conversation to be had.

Bottom line, Cousins is a low efficiency football player. He does a lot of things badly. They are the sort of things that often go overlooked when done well, because they aren't scoring plays, or flashy big gainers. Those are the things that get the attention from those who tend toward a fantasy football or ball watching approach. Kirk does fine against soft targets, and is abysmal against hard targets. Kirk cannot adapt well in the moment. Kirk has no instinct for the game. There are lots of QBs who can't rip up soft targets as well as Kirk. If a low efficiency QB who can kick the dogs that are down is one's idea of a top tier QB, Kirk is their guy. In truth, the rule changes have made it relatively easy for that type of QB to put up good numbers. If you measure QBs by the numbers they put up, Kirk is your guy.

I do measure a QB mostly by the numbers he puts up. He can't control the other stuff. Kirk was particularly great in the clutch this year.

I'm not sure why you think he can't control things he can control, unless you mean his temperament or something. Anyway, as I said, no point trying to converse across that divide.

[makila]

For example....

Kirk could have called that timeout...regardless of coaching staff. He had the ability to call TO, even if pissing Zimmer off. He didn't.

There are things he doesn't do within the game that he does have control to do.

Agreed no one's mind is going to be changed by others at this point on Cousins. It's why we get to talk as fans! Heh

I still want new HC, OC, and QB coach combined with FO (cap numbers) to evaluate Kirk. I will trust their (whoever it is) decision making until proven to be wrong.

To me Kirk's biggest issue, as others have said, is the cap number. It hampers roster building, at a time when we are likely going to be....resetting...our roster.

[StumpHunter]

For example....

Kirk could have called that timeout...regardless of coaching staff. He had the ability to call TO, even if pissing Zimmer off. He didn't.

Kirk, and multiple other Zimmer QBs have called a timeout in that spot before. Zimmer said himself that Kirk has the green light to call a timeout in that spot. He didn't call the timeout because he overthought it.

[J. Kapp 11]

Your boy Cousins is as good as gone. If not in 2022, then certainly in 2023. And he’ll be gone because he’s expensive, and he's not a winner. It’s that simple.

Just for sake of discussion, when does a loser cease to be a loser? When does a winner become a winner? Is he a loser until he wins a playoff game? Or does he have to get to the Conference Championship game? Does he have to win it? Or is he a loser until he gets to the Super Bowl?

In Cousins first year, I was guilty of pinning that "Loser" tag on him too. I tend to label QB's losers, not so much because of their win-loss record, but because what my eyes are telling me when I watch them on the field. When my eyes tell me that at some point he will become a hindrance to winning instead of a catalyst...when I see that look of panic, like he's about ready to pee in his pants...that's when I tend to call him a loser. Like stated earlier, Cousins won me over. No, he's not a great leader of men, but I also don't think his teammates look at him as wildering weakling either.

When he improves on his 9-41 record against winning teams. That’s a .180 winning percentage.

Know who has a better winning percentage in those situations? Sam Darnold. Also Marcus Mariota and some others that would shock you.

I’m not labeling Kirk Cousins a loser. His record speaks for itself.

[halfgiz]

Matthew Stafford cap hit is 23M this year & the Rams traded multiple picks to “build the team.” Get back to me when Kirk is willing to cut his next year cap hit in half.

[J. Kapp 11]

Jesus, man. The only reason you’re citing someone else’s take as brilliant is because they agree with you.

You just keep saying “Cousins is better” without offering anything to support your argument except that somebody else agrees with you — and they’re not giving a substantive argument either! If this were a debate class, you’d fail.

Here’s why Kirk Cousins, even though he’s a “good quarterback,” is wrong for this team.

There are two working models for QBs in the NFL.

One is that you catch lightning in a bottle in the draft, pay him rookie scale, and use the extra cap space to build a monster roster around him. Think Joe Burrow.

The other is to pay a superstar like Brady or Rodgers or Mahomes huge money in the belief that they can elevate the less-talented roster you’re going to have because you’re paying your quarterback so much. In that model, the QB makes up for the roster deficiency.

What DOESN’T work is when you pay your quarterback Mahomes money, but he can’t overcome your roster deficiencies. Your honor, I present Exhibit A: KIRK D. COUSINS.

Kirk Cousins is a good NFL quarterback. He’ll get you numbers. He can run the play that’s called. He’s fine if you put an elite O-line in front of him. But he doesn’t lead. And he cannot lift a team. If everything isn’t perfect, he fails. And the biggest proof, the darkest mark against him? He’s 9-41 in his career against teams that end the season with a winning record. If you’re gonna command $45 million against the cap, then at some point, you gotta beat somebody. You don’t get to hide behind “it’s a team game.” You’re being paid to overcome. Winning 18% of your games against good teams is not overcoming.

Final point against Cousins: No team in NFL history has won a Super Bowl with its quarterback taking up more than 13% of a team's salary cap. That's in 30 years of salary cap. Kirk Cousins is estimated to take up about 22% of the Vikings' cap in 2022. It may happen someday, but I'm not betting on Kirk Cousins being the guy to do it.

THAT is analysis. It’s a combination of opinion and facts. It uses those facts to support an opinion.

Dude, you’re welcome to have a subjective opinion. Be my guest. But don’t sit there and claim your subjective opinion is gospel just because you say so. Try backing what you say with facts, not just other people’s opinions, and maybe people will take you seriously.

Your boy Cousins is as good as gone. If not in 2022, then certainly in 2023. And he’ll be gone because he’s expensive, and he's not a winner. It’s that simple.

Kapp you are so much better than this post. To me your analysis is very lacking. I quoted the bit from Mary Kay because she was stating facts about Cousins and how very good he is.
Stafford is all I need to say to prove my point about Cousins. Anything Stafford can do Cousins certainly can. Until this year Cousins had pretty much been better in every conceivable way. Stafford is the same QB he has always been.
45 million is not Cousins salary. It is what the Vikings concocted to save cap for was it this year or last. 35Million is his salary and it might be a bit high. 30 Million would be reasonable. I don't know the exact salary cap, but if he's at 22% at 45 million it would be under 15% at 30 million. Close enough to your magic 13% number. The 45 million cap hit is only because of Vikings playing funny money.

I’M better than that? You have got to be kidding me. Now you’re pissing me off.

You quoted Mary Kay Cabot … THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT. There's no analysis there. Just another person whose opinion supports yours — sort of. You have only offered one “fact,” which is his percentage of the cap. And even that so-called fact is WRONG.

I never said $45 million is Cousins’ salary. Stop misquoting me. It’s his CAP HIT. Do you understand the difference? I don’t think you do. His cap hit, which is what matters, is NOT 15% of the cap. Pull out a freaking calculator!!! His cap hit of $45 million is exactly 22% of an estimated $205 million salary cap for 2022.

Here’s the only comparison to Matthew Stafford anybody needs. Stafford went from a terrible team to a good team. He ended up in the Super Bowl. Kirk Cousins went from a mediocre team to a team coming off an NFC championship game. He went 8-7-1. Those are called facts. Do you understand the difference between fact and opinion?

My OPINION is that Cousins is a decent quarterback who ends up almost every season with good stats. He is not a great quarterback. He is not worth a $45 million cap hit. And because of his contract demands, he will never, ever play in a Super Bowl because his teams will never be able to put enough talent around him. I’d bet the deed to my house on it.

I spent a lot of time offering real analysis backed by fact. You’ve offered nothing, yet you insulted me and what I presented. So here’s the deal. Don’t ever disrespect me like that again if you care to have further conversations with me. I’ll ignore you so fast it’ll make your head spin.

[VikingsVictorious]

Just for sake of discussion, when does a loser cease to be a loser? When does a winner become a winner? Is he a loser until he wins a playoff game? Or does he have to get to the Conference Championship game? Does he have to win it? Or is he a loser until he gets to the Super Bowl?

In Cousins first year, I was guilty of pinning that "Loser" tag on him too. I tend to label QB's losers, not so much because of their win-loss record, but because what my eyes are telling me when I watch them on the field. When my eyes tell me that at some point he will become a hindrance to winning instead of a catalyst...when I see that look of panic, like he's about ready to pee in his pants...that's when I tend to call him a loser. Like stated earlier, Cousins won me over. No, he's not a great leader of men, but I also don't think his teammates look at him as wildering weakling either.

When he improves on his 9-41 record against winning teams. That’s a .180 winning percentage.

Know who has a better winning percentage in those situations? Sam Darnold. Also Marcus Mariota and some others that would shock you.

I’m not labeling Kirk Cousins a loser. His record speaks for itself.

No QB has ever won or lost a game. Teams do that. Cousins record as in the things he has some control over is very good. Stafford had a crap record. Now he's in the Super Bowl. Cousins has a better record than Stafford and I believe better stats, but Stafford's stats are pretty good too.

[VikingsVictorious]

Kapp you are so much better than this post. To me your analysis is very lacking. I quoted the bit from Mary Kay because she was stating facts about Cousins and how very good he is.
Stafford is all I need to say to prove my point about Cousins. Anything Stafford can do Cousins certainly can. Until this year Cousins had pretty much been better in every conceivable way. Stafford is the same QB he has always been.
45 million is not Cousins salary. It is what the Vikings concocted to save cap for was it this year or last. 35Million is his salary and it might be a bit high. 30 Million would be reasonable. I don't know the exact salary cap, but if he's at 22% at 45 million it would be under 15% at 30 million. Close enough to your magic 13% number. The 45 million cap hit is only because of Vikings playing funny money.

I’M better than that? You have got to be kidding me. Now you’re pissing me off.

You quoted Mary Kay Cabot … THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT. There's no analysis there. Just another person whose opinion supports yours — sort of. You have only offered one “fact,” which is his percentage of the cap. And even that so-called fact is WRONG.

I never said $45 million is Cousins’ salary. Stop misquoting me. It’s his CAP HIT. Do you understand the difference? I don’t think you do. His cap hit, which is what matters, is NOT 15% of the cap. Pull out a freaking calculator!!! His cap hit of $45 million is exactly 22% of an estimated $205 million salary cap for 2022.

Here’s the only comparison to Matthew Stafford anybody needs. Stafford went from a terrible team to a good team. He ended up in the Super Bowl. Kirk Cousins went from a mediocre team to a team coming off an NFC championship game. He went 8-7-1. Those are called facts. Do you understand the difference between fact and opinion?

My OPINION is that Cousins is a decent quarterback who ends up almost every season with good stats. He is not a great quarterback. He is not worth a $45 million cap hit. And because of his contract demands, he will never, ever play in a Super Bowl because his teams will never be able to put enough talent around him. I’d bet the deed to my house on it.

I spent a lot of time offering real analysis backed by fact. You’ve offered nothing, yet you insulted me and what I presented. So here’s the deal. Don’t ever disrespect me like that again if you care to have further conversations with me. I’ll ignore you so fast it’ll make your head spin.

I could say you're pissing me off. I won't go there though. I'm trying to have a civil conversation. You seem to think what you say is more factual and more valid than what I say. I call BS on that. I saw no significant analysis from you. In the past I have seen good analysis from you. That's why I said you are better than that. Sorry if you find that insulting. I think it was very complimentary.

Kapp I never misquoted you. I didn't say that you said his salary was 45Million. I just pointed out that his salary wasn't 45 million.I didn't say his cap hit was 15%. I said if he's resigned at 30 million his cap hit would be less than 15%. You're the one who's trying to put words in my mouth that I never said. It isn't Cousins job to control his cap hit. That was the Vikings making that decision. I'm not going after you. You were the one attacking me. You are the one making incredibly insulting comments to me like I don't understand the difference between a fact and opinion. I bolded everything you said that was insulting or a flat out lie about what I said. It's a very high percentage of this reply. Here's what I posted that offended you so much.

45 million is not Cousins salary. It is what the Vikings concocted to save cap for was it this year or last. 35Million is his salary and it might be a bit high. 30 Million would be reasonable. I don't know the exact salary cap, but if he's at 22% at 45 million it would be under 15% at 30 million. Close enough to your magic 13% number. The 45 million cap hit is only because of Vikings playing funny money.

Analyze it and you will see that you were the one misquoting and insulting. Not me. Show me one place where I misquoted you and you will have my apology so fast it will make your head spin. I take that very seriously and would never intentionally do it.

Cousins couldn't control the Vikings record. Sure the records are facts. However, Cousins played every bit as well as Stafford ever has. Mary Kay pointed out the stats as far as passer rating were very strong for Cousins. Those are facts. That's why I quoted her. You can dig deep like Stump and find other less complimentary stats. Be my guest.

You were the offender and aggressor in everything here. So take a look at yourself. If you treat me that way I won't lose any sleep over you ignoring me. On the other hand I would be very happy to have good conversation if you quit misquoting me and insulting me.

[J. Kapp 11]

I’M better than that? You have got to be kidding me. Now you’re pissing me off.

You quoted Mary Kay Cabot … THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT. There's no analysis there. Just another person whose opinion supports yours — sort of. You have only offered one “fact,” which is his percentage of the cap. And even that so-called fact is WRONG.

I never said $45 million is Cousins’ salary. Stop misquoting me. It’s his CAP HIT. Do you understand the difference? I don’t think you do. His cap hit, which is what matters, is NOT 15% of the cap. Pull out a freaking calculator!!! His cap hit of $45 million is exactly 22% of an estimated $205 million salary cap for 2022.

Here’s the only comparison to Matthew Stafford anybody needs. Stafford went from a terrible team to a good team. He ended up in the Super Bowl. Kirk Cousins went from a mediocre team to a team coming off an NFC championship game. He went 8-7-1. Those are called facts. Do you understand the difference between fact and opinion?

My OPINION is that Cousins is a decent quarterback who ends up almost every season with good stats. He is not a great quarterback. He is not worth a $45 million cap hit. And because of his contract demands, he will never, ever play in a Super Bowl because his teams will never be able to put enough talent around him. I’d bet the deed to my house on it.

I spent a lot of time offering real analysis backed by fact. You’ve offered nothing, yet you insulted me and what I presented. So here’s the deal. Don’t ever disrespect me like that again if you care to have further conversations with me. I’ll ignore you so fast it’ll make your head spin.

I could say you're pissing me off. I won't go there though. I'm trying to have a civil conversation. You seem to think what you say is more factual and more valid than what I say. I call BS on that. I saw no significant analysis from you. In the past I have seen good analysis from you. That's why I said you are better than that. Sorry if you find that insulting. I think it was very complimentary.

Kapp I never misquoted you. I didn't say that you said his salary was 45Million. I just pointed out that his salary wasn't 45 million.I didn't say his cap hit was 15%. I said if he's resigned at 30 million his cap hit would be less than 15%. You're the one who's trying to put words in my mouth that I never said. It isn't Cousins job to control his cap hit. That was the Vikings making that decision. I'm not going after you. You were the one attacking me. You are the one making incredibly insulting comments to me like I don't understand the difference between a fact and opinion. I bolded everything you said that was insulting or a flat out lie about what I said. It's a very high percentage of this reply.

Cousins couldn't control the Vikings record. Sure the records are facts. However, Cousins played every bit as well as Stafford ever has. Mary Kay pointed out the stats as far as passer rating were very strong for Cousins. Those are facts. That's why I quoted her. You can dig deep like Stump and find other less complimentary stats. Be my guest.

You were the offender and aggressor in everything here. So take a look at yourself. If you treat me that way I won't lose any sleep over you ignoring me. On the other hand I would be very happy to have good conversation if you quit misquoting me and insulting me.

What I said IS more factual. You offer no facts, just your opinion. That is not being an “offender and aggressor.” That’s simply stating the truth. Do you not know the difference between opinion and fact? Fact is “Kirk Cousins threw for more than 4,000 yards.” It can’t be disputed. Opinion is “Throwing for 4,000 yards makes you a great quarterback.” That can be disputed.

Over and over, I and many others on this board have argued that some stats (EPA, Total QBR, others) are more telling than others (yards, passer rating, TDs, etc.). We’ve argued that counting stats and passer rating can be misleading. Yet you keep coming back to those counting stats to back Cousins. That is your prerogative, but it doesn’t make your opinion more than your opinion. That’s what I’m trying to tell you.

And just because somebody else believes the way you do, doesn’t mean you win the argument. It’s a logical fallacy called “appeal to authority,” which is overstating the authority of someone you cite. Mary Kay Cabot isn’t an expert on quarterback play. She’s a reporter. I can find 100 reporters who disagree with Cabot. They’re not experts either, so if I did that, I’d be wrong, too. Now, if you cited a recognized expert on quarterback play who said Cousins is better than he’s given credit for, I’d have to listen to that.

In the world of debate, the one who does the best job of backing his premise is considered the better debater. As much as you apparently believe to the contrary, all you have here is premise. I’m not seeing the backing.

As for aggression, I apologize for expressing anger. But nothing more. Your condescending comment that “I’m better than that” caused that anger, and it was uncalled for since I’m the one who did the actual research. I’ll accept your apology any time.

[VikingsVictorious]

I could say you're pissing me off. I won't go there though. I'm trying to have a civil conversation. You seem to think what you say is more factual and more valid than what I say. I call BS on that. I saw no significant analysis from you. In the past I have seen good analysis from you. That's why I said you are better than that. Sorry if you find that insulting. I think it was very complimentary.

Kapp I never misquoted you. I didn't say that you said his salary was 45Million. I just pointed out that his salary wasn't 45 million.I didn't say his cap hit was 15%. I said if he's resigned at 30 million his cap hit would be less than 15%. You're the one who's trying to put words in my mouth that I never said. It isn't Cousins job to control his cap hit. That was the Vikings making that decision. I'm not going after you. You were the one attacking me. You are the one making incredibly insulting comments to me like I don't understand the difference between a fact and opinion. I bolded everything you said that was insulting or a flat out lie about what I said. It's a very high percentage of this reply.

Cousins couldn't control the Vikings record. Sure the records are facts. However, Cousins played every bit as well as Stafford ever has. Mary Kay pointed out the stats as far as passer rating were very strong for Cousins. Those are facts. That's why I quoted her. You can dig deep like Stump and find other less complimentary stats. Be my guest.

You were the offender and aggressor in everything here. So take a look at yourself. If you treat me that way I won't lose any sleep over you ignoring me. On the other hand I would be very happy to have good conversation if you quit misquoting me and insulting me.

What I said IS more factual. You offer no facts, just your opinion. That is not being an “offender and aggressor.” That’s simply stating the truth. Do you not know the difference between opinion and fact? Fact is “Kirk Cousins threw for more than 4,000 yards.” It can’t be disputed. Opinion is “Throwing for 4,000 yards makes you a great quarterback.” That can be disputed.

Over and over, I and many others on this board have argued that some stats (EPA, Total QBR, others) are more telling than others (yards, passer rating, TDs, etc.). We’ve argued that counting stats and passer rating can be misleading. Yet you keep coming back to those counting stats to back Cousins. That is your prerogative, but it doesn’t make your opinion more than your opinion. That’s what I’m trying to tell you.

And just because somebody else believes the way you do, doesn’t mean you win the argument. It’s a logical fallacy called “appeal to authority,” which is overstating the authority of someone you cite. Mary Kay Cabot isn’t an expert on quarterback play. She’s a reporter. I can find 100 reporters who disagree with Cabot. They’re not experts either, so if I did that, I’d be wrong, too. Now, if you cited a recognized expert on quarterback play who said Cousins is better than he’s given credit for, I’d have to listen to that.

In the world of debate, the one who does the best job of backing his premise is considered the better debater. As much as you apparently believe to the contrary, all you have here is premise. I’m not seeing the backing.

As for aggression, I apologize for expressing anger. But nothing more. Your condescending comment that “I’m better than that” caused that anger, and it was uncalled for since I’m the one who did the actual research. I’ll accept your apology any time.

My reply to you was a work in progress. Go back and read the final edition. I wasn't debating and I wasn't trying to win an argument. I consider myself a winner if I learn something new. I see no significant research from you in the comment that I replied to. I NEVER MISQUOTED you. I would NEVER do that. You misquoted me and I think you know it now, but you haven't apologized. Read it. It's OBVIOUS.

I don't care about Mary Kay agreeing with me or not. What she stated was facts about Cousins passer rating. That's why I reposted the comment from the other poster. It's my opinion that Cousins is easily better than Stafford. Check records and Cousins wins that one. Check stats and they are both good, but I think Cousins wins most stat comparisons with Stafford. I won't stake my life or my house on that.

[vikeinmontana]

No real dog in the fight. It’s all speculation in regards to comparing two players on two different teams in two different situations. Any stat a guy wants to use for or against who’s the better qb, can and will always be countered with the fact that football is a team game and no single person is responsible for wins and losses. Which of course is true, and can’t be refuted. Yet the comparisons remain.

All I know is that a franchise that felt like they were on the cusp of a championship gave up TWO first round draft picks, ONE third round pick, and their STARTING quarterback to get Stafford. And now that franchise is in the Super Bowl.

Maybe a team would give up that much for Kirk but I doubt it. We paid him a fortune and have missed the playoffs two years in a row.

All I know is that if the Rams win it all and I was a fan of theirs, people could tell me all day long until they were blue in the face that Kirk Cousins is better; and I’d be more than content celebrating at the parade in downtown LA.

[J. Kapp 11]

Arif Hasan at The Athletic has a really good article today about Cousins. It’s incredibly fair, even though it concludes that he’ll never be “elite.” It presents a ton of advanced statistical evidence to support the premise, but even more than that, it gets into the MIND of Kirk Cousins by using excerpts from his own book, “Game Changer.”

The Athletic is behind a paywall, so you have to be a subscriber to access it. Here are a few key paragraphs.

This is an issue many of us have talked about, but we don’t state it as well as Hasan does here.

Cousins is the rare quarterback who puts in consistently impressive statistical performances without the wins to follow. Though it’s true that it isn’t necessarily fair to judge quarterbacks on their win-loss records — few consider the all-time leader in winning percentage among retired quarterbacks, Daryle Lamonica, to be the best quarterback in NFL history — it’s curious that one can go so long in a career of high-level statistical play while producing a 59-59-2 record as the starter. After all, quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and wins should coincide with QB performance after a point.

Here’s some statistical evidence that Cousins hasn’t been effective when forced to throw when behind by two scores or less in the last 10 minutes of games. This is among quarterbacks since 1999.

On that point, Cousins hasn’t been particularly effective. Ben Baldwin, a football analytics researcher and contributor to The Athletic, has looked extensively at quarterbacks when playing from behind (within a two-score margin) with less than 10 minutes left. Below is a chart of how often a drive has succeeded after adjusting for field position and time remaining. (Cousins is there at No. 75.)

One great point Hasan makes is that on first and second down before the final 10 minutes of play, Cousins ranks a respectable 13th (out of 42) in EPA per play. But on third downs and all downs inside the final 10 minutes, he ranks 38th. That’s fairly strong evidence that Cousins is not a clutch performer, much stronger than counting stats such as 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives.

The question Hasan tries to answer all of this is “why?” Many Cousins supporters point to a lack of a supporting cast, particularly offensive line. Hasan illuminates some personality traits that likely have much more to do with it.

In his book, Cousins identified some pivotal moments in his college career that ended up shaping his understanding of and approach to football. The most relevant might be his first conversation with then-Michigan State quarterbacks coach Dave Warner. Warner asked Cousins the most important thing a quarterback needed to do to be successful. After Cousins gave a rambling answer, Warner responded: “Make good decisions.”

That anecdote leads a chapter called “Spartan QBs Make Good Decisions,” and it’s clear that this thinking resonates throughout the book and his NFL career. In that book is a graphic from the quarterback room that includes another quarterback commandment that might make Vikings fans raise an eyebrow. (It’s a poster that says “Spartan quarterbacks 1. Manage the game 2. Make good decisions.)

Drilled every single day under the framework of evaluating every throw as a process, asking himself if each throw “was a good decision or a bad decision,” Cousins’ quarterbacking style has become systematic and often risk-averse. He often characterizes bad decisions as those that put the ball in harm’s way.

The need for a system exists throughout his being. In Washington, he scheduled his day out in quarter-hour increments, with color-coded activity charts. Helping with that process was an office, an actual office with filing cabinets and desk calendars and swivel chairs. One rarely compliments a quarterback by calling him a “system QB,” but it’s even rarer to see a quarterback embrace it.

Here’s a telling segment that show how Cousins himself is so risk-averse that he even occasionally considers plays with good outcomes to be bad decisions.

But on the last drive, needing a field goal to win, Cousins threaded an impossible needle to land the ball in wide receiver Adam Thielen’s hands and get into field goal range. With Rasul Douglas watching and waiting to make a pick, that certainly seemed to be more of an “intuitive” throw.

And, to Cousins, that was a problem. He should have, he said after the game, thrown it to Tyler Conklin instead for a small gain.

“I mean, I could point to a half-dozen throws there that were too aggressive, and I could argue that that’s one of them. I don’t think you want to live doing that. I think that we got away with it a couple times. I keep saying we’re razor’s edge, but that’s a play where it’s an example of it. The difference between him catching that and making the play he did and it going the other way is very small.”

It boils down to Cousins’ unwillingness to risk making a catastrophic error.

On third down, especially long third downs, the defense can be more comfortable putting a roof on top and keeping defenders deep — allowing receivers to run short. Cousins is happy to take those short throws, which is why his average “air yards to sticks,” or depth of target relative of the line to convert, is well below NFL average on third-and-long. As a result, his third-down conversion rate on long distances (7 to 12 yards) is below average despite boasting a completion percentage in those situations well above the NFL average. He completes more passes than other quarterbacks but can’t seem to make conversions. He’s taking what the defense is giving him, in part because the defense wants him to take it.

That right there sums up why I believe Kirk Cousins will never be elite. It DOES NOT mean I don’t like him. But it does mean I don’t like him at a $45-million cap hit. That’s what you pay quarterbacks who can manipulate a defense … not those who make plays dictated by the defense.

Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah is a guy who specializes in maximizing value and optimizing resource allocation. And THAT is why my not-so-reckless speculation is that the Vikings will move Cousins this offseason. My belief is that it will be to Cleveland because Kevin Stefanski has gotten more out of Cousins than any other coach he’s ever had, and they need competent quarterback play.

And now, I refuse to do any more research on the subject. My position is clear, and I’ve backed it up. Your honor, I rest my case.

[StumpHunter]

It boils down to Cousins’ unwillingness to risk making a catastrophic error.

On third down, especially long third downs, the defense can be more comfortable putting a roof on top and keeping defenders deep — allowing receivers to run short. Cousins is happy to take those short throws, which is why his average “air yards to sticks,” or depth of target relative of the line to convert, is well below NFL average on third-and-long. As a result, his third-down conversion rate on long distances (7 to 12 yards) is below average despite boasting a completion percentage in those situations well above the NFL average. He completes more passes than other quarterbacks but can’t seem to make conversions. He’s taking what the defense is giving him, in part because the defense wants him to take it.

I think Cousins was more interested in his stats looking good than winning last season, because Cousins is all about the money and better stats means more money. Throwing it away multiple times on 4th down at the end of games or end of the half, instead of making a risky throw that might end in an int, checking down on 3rd down instead of trying to throw to the sticks, and him talking about how he needs to take less risks after winning against GB while his supposed risk adverse HC is asking him to make more all point to him only caring about maximizing his potential earnings. Analytics like PFF do not care about situation when they hand out grades. A 5 yard perfect pass on 3rd and 8 when receivers are open downfield is graded positively, when the reality is that is almost as bad as a pick. Passer rating doesn't care whether an offense goes 3 and out the 2nd most of any offense as long as the QB puts up a TD or two in a 17-20 loss.

That isn't to say he was bad last season, but he is closer to that QBR rank of 15 than the more traditional passer rating ranking of 4. He is consistently that 12th best QB in a league where you usually need to be top 5 to win it all.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Nothing like some juicy Kirk Cousins talk but I'll bow out of this one.

To be honest, I'm trusting Kwesi and our new HC to make the right call with Cousins. There are benefits of keeping him and there are benefits by trading him. I'm good with whatever they think is best. If we are truly striving for a more collaborative environment throughout this organization, then I believe the GM/HC will make the right call whatever that may be.

Regardless of what route we go, heads are going to roll. It's just a matter of which ones.

Harrison
Dalvin
Thielen
Cousins
Hunter (the one guy I dont consider moving whatsoever)
Kendricks
Tomlinson
Pierce

The toughest part of my mock I've already started on is figuring this portion out. I'm also holding out to see what coach we get as well.

[CharVike]

It boils down to Cousins’ unwillingness to risk making a catastrophic error.

I think Cousins was more interested in his stats looking good than winning last season, because Cousins is all about the money and better stats means more money. Throwing it away multiple times on 4th down at the end of games or end of the half, instead of making a risky throw that might end in an int, checking down on 3rd down instead of trying to throw to the sticks, and him talking about how he needs to take less risks after winning against GB while his supposed risk adverse HC is asking him to make more all point to him only caring about maximizing his potential earnings. Analytics like PFF do not care about situation when they hand out grades. A 5 yard perfect pass on 3rd and 8 when receivers are open downfield is graded positively, when the reality is that is almost as bad as a pick. Passer rating doesn't care whether an offense goes 3 and out the 2nd most of any offense as long as the QB puts up a TD or two in a 17-20 loss.

That isn't to say he was bad last season, but he is closer to that QBR rank of 15 than the more traditional passer rating ranking of 4. He is consistently that 12th best QB in a league where you usually need to be top 5 to win it all.

No other player is about the money only Cousins. Come on do you think every poster here is a moron. This is there career they are all in it for the money. I worked my entire life in the IT field and people would jump form org to org to org for more money. You don't think Hunter is in it for the money. How about Smith who paid top 5 money and isn't worth top 10 money. He's a shadow of what he once was. He's not turning the money down. O'niel is one of the highest paid. He didn't turn down the money. Barr is the biggest wuss I ever seen play this game and won't step on the field unless he's 100 % is the one stealing. Why not mention that stiff. He takes top dollar and won't play. Once this new GM takes control you'll see some heads roll. These old guys who have lost there skills and are paid high are gone. And if he feels Cousins don't fit he will be gone also. With Stafford in he super bowl it drives Cousins value up even further. Stafford was the biggest loser the NFL ever saw. So the win/lose BS has nothing to do with it. Teams know who can play this game and who can't. Every player knows this also. Most are smart enough not to open there mouths so nobody knows. You will always have an idiot like RG3 who will tell everybody how much better he is than Kirk yet the stiff can't even make a team. It's good that we have fresh eyes looking at this. Of course those fresh eyes won't satisfy all. I hope we keep Kirk because we have zero behind him and a team can be built revamped around a QB. When you have a bum behind center the job is much harder. The only choice is an LOB or 2000 Raven defense. Those type of defenses come around about every 20 years.