Mothman wrote:
No way is this team more competitive than it was in 2012 and their record is the same as it was at this point in 2010. It's better than it was after 11 games last year but at this point last season, they were coming off a tie at GB. This year, they're coming off a close loss a to GB. Last year's team lost a bunch of close games. This year's team has lost some close ones too. Maybe they'll close strong and get to 8-8 or 9-7. That would be impressive and maybe it will happen but I think it's more likely they end up at 6-10, slightly better than last year's team.
I'm going to say something that might make you mad ... please understand, it's nothing personal.
Unless I'm mistaken, you usually watch the games after you already know the outcome. I would submit that changes the way you watch them.
Watching yesterday's game live, it felt like the Vikings could win the game, even though they never held the lead. And the reason it felt like they could pull it out was because the defense was playing great football. Does that mean they shut down the Green Bay Packers? Of course not. Nobody shuts them down completely. But I would say they played as well against the Packers as any team in the league has played this year, despite the loss.
In the past, when Aaron Rodgers let the ball go, the only way is was likely to be incomplete was if he and his receiver were on different pages, or the receiver dropped the ball. Rarely, and I mean RARELY, was the receiver covered and the pass contested. Yesterday, the vast majority of Rodgers' passes were contested very tightly, even the completions. There was a lot of whining to the refs going on by Green Bay receivers, which meant they were frustrated. You typically see that against Seattle or Kansas City ... not the Vikings. Rodgers also had to throw from out of the pocket A LOT yesterday, meaning the rush was also doing its job. He's just flat-out great at improvising, and he kept plays alive yesterday in those situations.
Basically, it's a matter of hope. Watching most of the past five years' games live, almost every game felt hopeless because our defense couldn't stop a Pop Warner team. This year, I'm surprised when our defense gets gashed. It happened virtually every drive in past years. Watching the game afterward, you don't have to sweat out the game. You already know what happened. I just think that makes you look at things differently.
As for 2012, we'll just have to agree to disagree. You like to talk total team, so let's do that. The main reason the 2012 team made the playoffs was Adrian Peterson. That man carried the team, literally and figuratively. This year we don't have Adrian Peterson, and I would submit the 2014 team is better than the 2012 team would have been without him. You may disagree, but if so, it's a matter of partial degrees. I think we can all degree ... the 2012 team had little to no chance of making the playoffs without AP.
Mothman wrote:
I don't think the sky is falling. I see progress in some areas, regression in others. The latter is discouraging but I certainly didn't expect an overnight turnaround and as you pointed out, there have been setbacks. Losing Peterson was huge.
I'm still hopeful that they're heading in the right direction and that Zimmer is the right head coach. However, I don't feel very good about where the team is at right now because overall, I just don't think they're much better. Admittedly, part of that might be because I watched them give a pretty miserable performance in person a week ago. What makes me hopeful more than anything is that they're young and by this time next year, they could be a whole lot better.
Everything I talked about before was based on the eye test. So let me back up my argument that we're better with some basic numbers.
Run defense
At first glance, our rank of 22nd seems pretty bad. But is it really worse than last year, when we finished 16th?
Last year, teams threw the ball more than 40 times per game against the Vikings, which was the second-most pass attempts against any team in the NFL. Yet despite all those pass attempts, we still finished 16th against the rush. This year, opponents have attempted the 6th-fewest passes against us. It's my opinion, of course, but based on these numbers, the run defenses are about the same.
Pass defense
Here's the big difference. This year, we're 8th against the pass, as opposed to 31st last year (and, by the way, 24th against the pass in 2012). We're giving up 22 completions per game, compared to 26 per game last year. Opponents have attempted more than 8 fewer passes per game, with fewer yards per attempt, a lower TD percentage, and a higher interception percentage.
Overall
Again, marked improvement. We've gone from 32nd in the league in points allowed to 15th, giving up 8 fewer points per game. We're ranked 14th in overall yardage, compared to 31st last year. Turnovers are up, sacks are up ... the defense is better, both than 2013 AND the playoff team in 2012.
Here's the thing, Jim. You're always so good about preaching patience and pointing toward long-term success. Yet you're basing this year's performance on its current won-loss record. It's not what I'm used to seeing out of you. Watch yesterday's game. Look for positives. Pay particular attention to our pass defense, and how the DBs were sticking to Green Bay's extraordinary receivers. It's better defense, especially DB play, than I've seen in many years. I'm not only hopeful for the future, I believe this year's team will surprise us the rest of the way. Playoffs? Nope. Not this year. But they're improving. Gotta get the offense rolling, and that means mainly the O-line and better accuracy from Teddy. But we're competitive, and we'll get better.