AD all time leading rusher?

[Eli]

The only thing that will matter in the long run is how long he plays the game. If he stays healthy, he stays playing.

Far too many variables to say that. That's the simple, linear viewpoint. What if he actually wins a Super Bowl in his later years and decides that's a good point to retire? Or what if he matures and decides that his health and longevity are more valuable than a record that someone else will just break some day? Or maybe his productivity drops off substantially and the record becomes unobtainable. Or the Vikings and Turner's offense switch drastically to being pass-oriented, so he sees far few carries. Or he leaves the Vikings in a couple of years and signs with the Cowboys or Texans and ends up behind a horrible offensive line. And that doesn't even factor in career-ending or chronic injuries.

It's not just a matter of showing up for work every day for the next seven or eight years and punching a time clock.

[maembe]

If I had to guess, I would say he'll finish 3rd or 4th, as that's where he'd likely be after 3-5 seasons. RBs just don't play as long as they used to, so I don't see him catching Smith who played 8 years longer that AD has played now.

[Raptorman]

Far too many variables to say that. That's the simple, linear viewpoint. What if he actually wins a Super Bowl in his later years and decides that's a good point to retire? Or what if he matures and decides that his health and longevity are more valuable than a record that someone else will just break some day? Or maybe his productivity drops off substantially and the record becomes unobtainable. Or the Vikings and Turner's offense switch drastically to being pass-oriented, so he sees far few carries. Or he leaves the Vikings in a couple of years and signs with the Cowboys or Texans and ends up behind a horrible offensive line. And that doesn't even factor in career-ending or chronic injuries.

It's not just a matter of showing up for work every day for the next seven or eight years and punching a time clock.

Funny you should mention Turners offense. Since three of Smiths best years running was when Turner was the Dallas OC. During those three years Smith averaged 1,587 yards a season rushing. Granted he was younger than Peterson is now, but it shows what is possible in a Turner offense.