S197 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:21 pm
Some of the "adversity" the Vikings are having to endure is self-inflicted. When your resources are capped, in this case by dollars, you're going to have to make tough decisions if you choose to allocate large portions of your resources to a select number of individuals. This is a driving factor as to why the Vikings have to field a rookie secondary, why guys like Dozier is starting and Samia is a backup, Holmes is our DE and why Cleveland is playing guard (I assume they drafted him to play tackle). And there will be even more tough decisions to come next year and the following.
The hope of course is that some of these new guys really step up because the team is more or less all-in on that. The only way this really works is if this draft, and probably next year's, are blockbusters. I don't necessarily think we can judge the success of this year's draft by how many rookies are currently playing, there's not much of a choice, it's how well they end up playing. I would say outside of JJ, it's very much an unknown if any of these guys pan out. It would be unfair to evaluate them with less than a season under their belts but I also think it's very premature to praise this draft as a success.
2019 looked pretty good on paper but that draft is starting to sour pretty quickly. Bradbury looks a little better right now but has yet to play anywhere near close to a 1st round center. Irv Smith could be the best pick out of that draft, he'll likely fill Rudolph's shoes next year. Mattison is a committee type RB, which is ok for a 3rd round pick. The next 9 picks are guys who have basically been cut, should be cut (Samia), or are likely career backups (Boyd, Johnson, etc.).
Well, if this isn't a case of glass-half-empty, nothing is. Please don't take that as a put-down ... it's your right to view the Vikings' situation that way. I and a few others just don't share it. You seem to be going mostly with the eye test, which again is your prerogative. But the eyes can deceive. Just as you believe some of us overrate young players based on our biases, I would submit that you may be underrating others based on yours.
Here's an example. A lot of fans rely on PFF for rankings and grades. I don't trust their methodology, but others do, so let's go with that. I also don't have a subscription, so the information I get is a little outdated, but as of the middle of November, Garrett Bradbury ranked 4th among all centers in overall grade. That may not make him an All-Pro, but it's certainly more than "a little better right now but has yet to play anywhere near close to a 1st round center." Brian Baldinger also consistently mentions Bradbury in his breakdowns — anecdotal evidence, I realize, but I consider Baldinger an expert because he knows what Bradbury is supposed to be doing, as well as the techniques he uses to do them.
So yeah, a lot of this is hunches and beliefs and gut feels and hairs on the backs of our necks. Some of it is simply a matter of where a guy gets his information. There are biases. With that disclaimer firmly in place, here's what I believe, specifically.
Jeff Gladney and Cam Dantzler have ability. We've seen that. They're getting lots of playing time, which is highly unusual for rookie corners under Mike Zimmer. And the thing for me — they compete. Hard. Even when they get beat, they're hustling and busting their butts. But more and more over the past month, they've been in position and battling for the ball. They're making more plays every week. They still get beat on occasion, but they're starting to make plays. That's what I see. Here the deficiencies are, indeed, self-inflicted. But those deficiencies are dwindling, I believe. Look, it's just not fair to compare Jeff Gladney to 2016 Xavier Rhodes simply because they're both first-rounders. Rhodes was in his fourth year when he was owning OBJ and others in 2016. Let's not forget, he got burned constantly his first year or two, and we wondered if HE was a wasted pick.
When I watch Irv Smith, I see a stallion. A big man who can really run. He catches the ball when it's near him. He's surprisingly good after the catch for a tight end. The thing holding Smith back is that he's playing behind and icon in Kyle Rudolph (which honestly shouldn't be the case because Smith is better). Smith has also had trouble staying healthy this year. But knowing what we know about Rudloph's age, contract, etc., I can't see how anybody can look at Irv Smith and say he isn't a breakout candidate for 2021. People wonder why Kirk Cousins doesn't throw to his tight ends, like he did with Jordan Reed in Washington. Maybe it's because Kyle Rudolph just doesn't get much separation. You saw what happened when Rudy was out against TB and Kirk had two younger, faster tight ends in the game ... 9 catches for 104 yards between Smith and Conklin. I believe this will be an addition-by-subtraction thing next year when the Vikings cut ties with Rudolph. As of this year, you are correct — our deficiencies at the position are self-inflicted because Rudolph gets 80% of the snaps.
We see what Eric Wilson is doing. This is an undrafted guy who has grown and developed with some great coaching, and by playing with and learning from Kendricks and Barr. Now he's on the edge of Pro Bowl consideration.
Yes, the D-line is a mess, but I wouldn't call that situation self-inflicted. Nobody knew that Covid would hit, which means nobody knew that Michael Pierce wouldn't play. If you think that wouldn't make a difference, consider that Pierce was far better against the run in 2019 than Linval Joseph was, and we all miss Linval. Also, how could anybody know that Danielle Hunter, one of the most feared edge rushers in the game, would suffer a potentially career-ending neck injury? These things weren't self-inflicted.
Troy Dye? Meh. Haven't seen much from him that makes me think he's any better than depth. But he's playing and contributing. James Lynch, same thing. But D.J. Wonnum? Surely you see the potential in that guy. Honestly, I'm sort of baffled as to why he's hovering around 50% snaps. He played more special teams snaps against Tampa Bay than he did defensive snaps. Maybe he's still not good against the run ... but is Jalyn Holmes significantly better?
Again, you have been consistent in your view that the Vikings haven't been run very well organizationally. I don't agree, but I respect that point of view, and the fact that you've been consistent about it. But I think you have to admit that it's also going to color your opinion of individual players. And mine is colored by the fact that I think the organization is fine, and that I'm eternally optimistic by nature. I'm hoping we can see the validity in each point of view and call it a day.