PHP's "Draft Day is almost here" Mock

[S197]

Posted in the Sirius thread Risner would be my top OL pick with Dillard second (assuming the consensus top guys are gone). I have a feeling Risner will be gone but the odds Dillard is around seem decent. Absent something odd like an Oliver falling, I think one of those is the pick. If both are gone, I could see Hockenson if he's around.

I'm hoping the Vikings aren't enticed by Sweat, who I think will be available but not worth the 18th pick. We don't need a passs rusher and his health concerns me.

You can always use a pass rusher. And Griffens time is dwindling. Sweat is another Hunter IMO. If he’s there, I would be mad if we passed on him. Pairing Sweat with Hunter would create one of the best up and coming DE combos in the nfl if you ask me. There’s no doubt they are looking into pass rushers. They nearly traded Griff.

As for Risner, I think Dillard will go ahead of Risner. Risner should be there at 18 and I think ford might too. I think Dillard will be the one to go before either of them. That’s the big question, if the two top guys are available, who do you take, Ford or Risner? I don’t think you could go wrong with either.

The defensive players I’m keeping my eye on are Sweat, Oliver and the Clemson trio. I don’t see us drafting Lawrence because he’s more like a Linval type DL. But Ferrell and Wilkins are hard to pass on as well. Analysts said today they think Ferrell is the most NFL ready pass rusher in the draft. Wilkins would be an immediate plug and play at 3 tech as well as Oliver. And sweat is just a physical freak that Andre Patterson would work wonders with. IMO I believe that’s why the eagles ended up winning a SB. Because they had an abundance of pass rushers that offensive lines couldn’t contain. Imagine Hunter, Griff, Sweat and Weatherly?! If Zim ran a NASCAR package with those 4 on 3rd down, he’d never have to send a blitz! Either way, pass rushers are like solid CBs. They are hard to come by. If Montez Sweat is staring you in the face at 18, you don’t pass that up

Sweat definitely has the size and athleticism to make him a top 10 pick but it's risky. Mike Lombardi is saying some teams have taken him off their board due to that heart condition. It's hard to say what's real and what's smoke pre-draft but it's concerning if true.

I think Risner goes before Dillard and Ford. We'll see in a week. I just think with Hunter, Griff, and Weatherly, we can afford to wait on a DE. You can't coach up a heart condition and I think this team is positioned where it's not necessary to take a risk like that.

[S197]

Posted in the Sirius thread Risner would be my top OL pick with Dillard second (assuming the consensus top guys are gone). I have a feeling Risner will be gone but the odds Dillard is around seem decent. Absent something odd like an Oliver falling, I think one of those is the pick. If both are gone, I could see Hockenson if he's around.

I'm hoping the Vikings aren't enticed by Sweat, who I think will be available but not worth the 18th pick. We don't need a passs rusher and his health concerns me.

I dont think Risner, Dillard or Ford will be around at 18. But if they are, they would most likely be BPA. I agree on Sweat as well, I think theres just as good of talent in the 2nd.

I think it's almost certain one of those guys are there, which is a good problem to have. I'm a little wary of Ford because it sounds like he wouldn't be the best fit but I'll be very shocked if all 3 are drafted before 18. That would mean a pretty big surprise fall at some other position, most likely LB or DL. I think Risner, Dillard or Ford would help this line out quite a bit. Ford probably the most immediate impact but the others have higher ceilings to pay off bigger down the road.

[fiestavike]

I just think with Hunter, Griff, and Weatherly, we can afford to wait on a DE.

Will Weatherly be an RFA?

[Pondering Her Percy]

I just think with Hunter, Griff, and Weatherly, we can afford to wait on a DE.

Will Weatherly be an RFA?

No he was drafted as a 7th round pick. He’ll be a UFA

[Pondering Her Percy]

You can always use a pass rusher. And Griffens time is dwindling. Sweat is another Hunter IMO. If he’s there, I would be mad if we passed on him. Pairing Sweat with Hunter would create one of the best up and coming DE combos in the nfl if you ask me. There’s no doubt they are looking into pass rushers. They nearly traded Griff.

As for Risner, I think Dillard will go ahead of Risner. Risner should be there at 18 and I think ford might too. I think Dillard will be the one to go before either of them. That’s the big question, if the two top guys are available, who do you take, Ford or Risner? I don’t think you could go wrong with either.

The defensive players I’m keeping my eye on are Sweat, Oliver and the Clemson trio. I don’t see us drafting Lawrence because he’s more like a Linval type DL. But Ferrell and Wilkins are hard to pass on as well. Analysts said today they think Ferrell is the most NFL ready pass rusher in the draft. Wilkins would be an immediate plug and play at 3 tech as well as Oliver. And sweat is just a physical freak that Andre Patterson would work wonders with. IMO I believe that’s why the eagles ended up winning a SB. Because they had an abundance of pass rushers that offensive lines couldn’t contain. Imagine Hunter, Griff, Sweat and Weatherly?! If Zim ran a NASCAR package with those 4 on 3rd down, he’d never have to send a blitz! Either way, pass rushers are like solid CBs. They are hard to come by. If Montez Sweat is staring you in the face at 18, you don’t pass that up

Sweat definitely has the size and athleticism to make him a top 10 pick but it's risky. Mike Lombardi is saying some teams have taken him off their board due to that heart condition. It's hard to say what's real and what's smoke pre-draft but it's concerning if true.

I think Risner goes before Dillard and Ford. We'll see in a week. I just think with Hunter, Griff, and Weatherly, we can afford to wait on a DE. You can't coach up a heart condition and I think this team is positioned where it's not necessary to take a risk like that.

Yes I’ve heard that but honestly there has been multiple players the past few years that have been diagnosed with it and then you literally never hear of it again. Two players that were diagnosed with it from recent memory were Star Lotuleilei and Maurice Hurst. It never effected either of them when it came to performance. Hurst actually had a very good season for the raiders this past year. Lotuleilei is one of the better run stuffers in the league.

If Sweat was injury prone, then I’d be worried. But for a heart condition? It wouldn’t stop me from drafting him

[StumpHunter]

Will Weatherly be an RFA?

No he was drafted as a 7th round pick. He’ll be a UFA

Correct, and I don't see any way Griffen is back next year. Whether he plays great or struggles, he is just too expensive in 2020.

[Pondering Her Percy]

No he was drafted as a 7th round pick. He’ll be a UFA

Correct, and I don't see any way Griffen is back next year. Whether he plays great or struggles, he is just too expensive in 2020.

Exactly why I could see us pulling the trigger on Sweat or Ferrell if they are there. Weatherly isn’t a starting DE IMO. He’s the perfect #3 but I just don’t see him as a legit starter

[fiestavike]

Correct, and I don't see any way Griffen is back next year. Whether he plays great or struggles, he is just too expensive in 2020.

Exactly why I could see us pulling the trigger on Sweat or Ferrell if they are there. Weatherly isn’t a starting DE IMO. He’s the perfect #3 but I just don’t see him as a legit starter

Too early to say that, but he made some excellent plays last year. In any case, i agree with you that there is good justification for going DE. Weatherly and Griffin could well be gone after this year and the gm likely already has a pretty good idea about who they'll be able to retain.

[StpViking]

Posted in the Sirius thread Risner would be my top OL pick with Dillard second (assuming the consensus top guys are gone). I have a feeling Risner will be gone but the odds Dillard is around seem decent. Absent something odd like an Oliver falling, I think one of those is the pick. If both are gone, I could see Hockenson if he's around.

I'm hoping the Vikings aren't enticed by Sweat, who I think will be available but not worth the 18th pick. We don't need a passs rusher and his health concerns me.

Since I am probably the biggest Sweat fan(middle aged)boy here. We didn't need Randy Moss AND he had off field issues that made other teams shy away from him. Look at how his rookie season turned out.

I very much believe Sweat's skill set and this coaching staff are made for each other. I also would find it hard to believe the Lions or Packers will take a chance of letting him slip to the Vikings. One of them will snatch him because they know what this defensive staff can do with him.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Exactly why I could see us pulling the trigger on Sweat or Ferrell if they are there. Weatherly isn’t a starting DE IMO. He’s the perfect #3 but I just don’t see him as a legit starter

Too early to say that, but he made some excellent plays last year. In any case, i agree with you that there is good justification for going DE. Weatherly and Griffin could well be gone after this year and the gm likely already has a pretty good idea about who they'll be able to retain.

Right. I mean if it’s not Ferrell or Sweat, I’d rather we wait but it will be interesting

[VikingLord]

Which of the QB stat categories tracked on that website do you think best measures a QB as a "pure passer"?

They don’t measure it. I look at it more as the eye test. I can guarantee that Wilson’s completions off of a scramble or outside of the pocket crush anyone else’s. When I say a pure passer I’m referring to accuracy, overall arm talent, ability to stand in the pocket, makes reads, etc. Wilson doesn’t do a great job of standing tall in the pocket and delivering. So these numbers tell me nothing. How many times does he scramble and eventually a WR loses his man and he dumps it off to them? Where’s the measurement for standing tall in the pocket and delivering a strike? I don’t believe there is. That’s my point. If you have great scrambling ability, corners can’t cover forever. It’s going to result in much easier completions.

Not to belabor it then, but you realize that if you are going to define your argument around something purely subjective like the "eye test", then you really can't be wrong.

Which is fine, but at that point hardly worth debate.

For what it's worth, I think Wilson's objective stats and accomplishments to this point in his career merit his compensation, and apparently the Seahawks agree with that assessment. He's not the GOAT, and mostly likely will never be viewed as the GOAT, neither objectively nor subjectively, but at least from the objective viewpoint, he ranks up there with the best of his peers and, in many statistical categories, the best of all time at his position as well.

Put another way, if the Vikings could have Russell Wilson at QB, I'd take him in a heartbeat, even over Cousins. He'd be the best QB the Vikings have had behind center since 2009 Brett Favre.

[Pondering Her Percy]

They don’t measure it. I look at it more as the eye test. I can guarantee that Wilson’s completions off of a scramble or outside of the pocket crush anyone else’s. When I say a pure passer I’m referring to accuracy, overall arm talent, ability to stand in the pocket, makes reads, etc. Wilson doesn’t do a great job of standing tall in the pocket and delivering. So these numbers tell me nothing. How many times does he scramble and eventually a WR loses his man and he dumps it off to them? Where’s the measurement for standing tall in the pocket and delivering a strike? I don’t believe there is. That’s my point. If you have great scrambling ability, corners can’t cover forever. It’s going to result in much easier completions.

Not to belabor it then, but you realize that if you are going to define your argument around something purely subjective like the "eye test", then you really can't be wrong.

Which is fine, but at that point hardly worth debate.

For what it's worth, I think Wilson's objective stats and accomplishments to this point in his career merit his compensation, and apparently the Seahawks agree with that assessment. He's not the GOAT, and mostly likely will never be viewed as the GOAT, neither objectively nor subjectively, but at least from the objective viewpoint, he ranks up there with the best of his peers and, in many statistical categories, the best of all time at his position as well.

Put another way, if the Vikings could have Russell Wilson at QB, I'd take him in a heartbeat, even over Cousins. He'd be the best QB the Vikings have had behind center since 2009 Brett Favre.

That’s what I’m saying, there aren’t really stats to prove it. The stats are flawed given what I’m trying to argue. That’s why I said before it’s more agree to disagree. Some will think Wilson is “elite”, some will think he’s great, some will think he’s overrated in certain ways. There just isn’t a stat out there for what I’m really arguing. Which is why I say it’s more of the eye test than anything. I mean I respect guys opinions of them thinking he’s a legit passer. I just think he’s overrated as a passer and his legs bail him out more than anything which in turn, results inflated numbers. He struggles to stay in the pocket and deliver. It is what it is. Just my two cents

[VikingLord]

You can't coach up a heart condition and I think this team is positioned where it's not necessary to take a risk like that.

How severe is the heart condition?

It hasn't seemed to affect Sweat to this point. I suppose it could, but if it's been known and he's played with it this long, what are the odds that it will suddenly become a bigger issue in the future?

It'd be pretty hard to pass on a player like Sweat if he falls to 18. Based on his college production and his measurables, he's a unique talent that should easily go top 15 in this draft. I kind of view him like I view Ed Oliver. Both are players with high ceilings as pros that are getting dinged by some possibly questionable things that could cause them to slide well below where I think their pro potential dictates. In the case of Oliver, I think it's his height or his arm length or something silly like that. In the case of Sweat, sure, the heart condition or off field concerns might be legit, but then again, they might not really be all that significant. But if these things cause either player to fall into the Vikings lap at #18, man, it'd be really, really hard to take a flyer on either one.

[S197]

You can't coach up a heart condition and I think this team is positioned where it's not necessary to take a risk like that.

How severe is the heart condition?

It hasn't seemed to affect Sweat to this point. I suppose it could, but if it's been known and he's played with it this long, what are the odds that it will suddenly become a bigger issue in the future?

It'd be pretty hard to pass on a player like Sweat if he falls to 18. Based on his college production and his measurables, he's a unique talent that should easily go top 15 in this draft. I kind of view him like I view Ed Oliver. Both are players with high ceilings as pros that are getting dinged by some possibly questionable things that could cause them to slide well below where I think their pro potential dictates. In the case of Oliver, I think it's his height or his arm length or something silly like that. In the case of Sweat, sure, the heart condition or off field concerns might be legit, but then again, they might not really be all that significant. But if these things cause either player to fall into the Vikings lap at #18, man, it'd be really, really hard to take a flyer on either one.

No one really knows for certain. If teams have taken him off the board it could be pretty serious but that could also be smoke and mirrors. I think he's interviewed with 10+ teams and you know they're all checking him out. If 17 teams pass on him, I'm thinking at least a few have found serious concerns in those checkups.

I'm having a hard time finding a scenario where all these teams pass on a guy with that much talent unless there is genuine concern.

[CharVike]

Not to belabor it then, but you realize that if you are going to define your argument around something purely subjective like the "eye test", then you really can't be wrong.

Which is fine, but at that point hardly worth debate.

For what it's worth, I think Wilson's objective stats and accomplishments to this point in his career merit his compensation, and apparently the Seahawks agree with that assessment. He's not the GOAT, and mostly likely will never be viewed as the GOAT, neither objectively nor subjectively, but at least from the objective viewpoint, he ranks up there with the best of his peers and, in many statistical categories, the best of all time at his position as well.

Put another way, if the Vikings could have Russell Wilson at QB, I'd take him in a heartbeat, even over Cousins. He'd be the best QB the Vikings have had behind center since 2009 Brett Favre.

That’s what I’m saying, there aren’t really stats to prove it. The stats are flawed given what I’m trying to argue. That’s why I said before it’s more agree to disagree. Some will think Wilson is “elite”, some will think he’s great, some will think he’s overrated in certain ways. There just isn’t a stat out there for what I’m really arguing. Which is why I say it’s more of the eye test than anything. I mean I respect guys opinions of them thinking he’s a legit passer. I just think he’s overrated as a passer and his legs bail him out more than anything which in turn, results inflated numbers. He struggles to stay in the pocket and deliver. It is what it is. Just my two cents

Most people think Wilson won the Super Bowl. I had to refresh my memory but they also had a decent defense. Found this below.

The Legion of Boom and the rest of the 2013 Seahawks defense led the league in points, yards and turnovers. And, of course, this defense completely shut down Peyton Manning — who was having the best season of his career — and Denver’s record-setting offense in Super Bowl XLVIII.

That's playing some defense. They were top 5 all time easily and that D won it for them. Not the 2000 Ravens D but very close. Plus they got turnovers which is something we currently don't do very well. Win the TO battle and typically win the game. IMO Wilson wouldn't guide our current team to the Super Bowl because he's not good enough to overcome our weaknesses. If Zim starts preaching TOs it would help us out tremendously. But his scheme seems to be short with getting TOs.