Culpepper-Moss highlights

[mosscarter]

he trained with carter multiple times in florida. also, have you ever watched the moss method dvd? the fact that people think he didn't work out in the off season couldn't be more incorrect. he simply didn't stretch before games because he didn't need to. to my knowledge, while in minnesota he only missed 2 games with a hamstring. the guy rarely if ever missed any games.

[Gemfow]

Fiesta vike: I wonder how good you'd look if almost everything you've done in life is up for video review. Compare the ratio of good to bad and what do you have? The problem with people, judge mental people is one individual can be a guy/girl who has done 1000 great things but it may only take two negative things by that same individual for a person to sour on them. Funny how that is isn't it?

[Gemfow]

well i disagree and think he dealt with way more off the field problems then any of us know about. you could argue i'm speculating, but in all honestly i wouldn't be surprised if he has a borderline personality disorder that was never properly diagnosed. brandon marshall has the same thing, and was arrested 7 or 8 times before getting things straightened out but it took him years. his foundation is doing all kinds of wonderful things in the mental health field (which no one takes seriously). when you look at moss's erratic behavior and poor decision making early on in his career, it is quite similar to marshall's although moss wasn't arrested as many times. brandon marshall used to purposely bat down balls in practice that were thrown to him, that attitude is eerily similar. to say moss was a moron is an ugly statement. if you don't think a borderline personality disorder is serious--well just ask mike tyson because he deals with that too. it is a real emotional disorder and those that have it cannot properly process their emotions. hence one minute he was the nicest guy in the world, and then the next a total as*hole.

No use you trying to speak sense to people who are judgemental like that.like you mentioned, one poster alled him a moron and most likely doesn't know him. I'm sure a lot of these individuals speaking negatively about Moss have their own issues that aren't up for discussion due to the media, we all do whether it's small or large in another person's eyes

[fiestavike]

Fiesta vike: I wonder how good you'd look if almost everything you've done in life is up for video review. Compare the ratio of good to bad and what do you have? The problem with people, judge mental people is one individual can be a guy/girl who has done 1000 great things but it may only take two negative things by that same individual for a person to sour on them. Funny how that is isn't it?

Fortunately, the only judgement I have about Randy Moss is about him as a football player. As a football player he let his teammates down in a way that I almost can't recall ever seeing from any other football player who's career is also documented and scrutinized by the media.

Outside of that he might be a great guy and I certainly wish him the best. As a Vikings player and teammate he was extremely disappointing.

[Noxage]

Relevant:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ran ... -all-time/

As a data science professional it's nice to see there's some substance to what Moss and Vikings fans have said for years. He could impact a game like no other. Note that that article is far from conclusive "proof" that he was the best WR ever but it does a good enough job of showing that it's at least a conversation worth having.

Anecdotal: Watching young Moss (1998-2001ish) run deep routes in person is the most impressive thing I've ever seen at a live sporting event. Watching it from the upper bowl of the old dome was borderline surreal. So little perceived effort in his stride but so much explosive power.

[Crax]

As a football player he let his teammates down in a way that I almost can't recall ever seeing from any other football player who's career is also documented and scrutinized by the media.

Terrel Owens, maybe? He ended up pretty much un-signable when he still had some skill left.

[Mothman]

Relevant:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ran ... -all-time/

As a data science professional it's nice to see there's some substance to what Moss and Vikings fans have said for years. He could impact a game like no other. Note that that article is far from conclusive "proof" that he was the best WR ever but it does a good enough job of showing that it's at least a conversation worth having.

I suppose but we already knew Moss was a rare talent that had a big impact on many games. Theres little doubt that at his best, he was easily one of the most dangerous receivers, and most difficult matchup problems, in the game's history.

To my eyes, the article is too skewed in favor of it's thesis. It acknowledges how many variables there are in football and then veers right past some of them with comments like this:

From 2000 to 2004 Moss helped make Daunte Culpepper an All Pro. After Moss’s departure, Culpepper struggled to stay a starter in the NFL, ultimately playing five more years for four different teams, with a combined record of 5-22.

The author blows right by the fact that just 6 games into the post-Moss phase of his career, Culpepper suffered an injury so devastating that many thought he might not even play again. He was never the same player after that. Gee, maybe that had more to do with his struggle to stay a starter in the NFL than not playing with Moss?

I

n 2005, Moss went to Oakland, where he underperformed for a round-robin of QBs.

Indeed, he did and his own obvious lack of effort had a lot to with that underperformance, another reason why many feel he can't really compare to rice in a discussion of the greatest of all time.

In 2012, he returned to play for the San Francisco 49ers, where he was relegated largely to role-playing and decoy duty. Whether Moss is at all responsible or not, it’s worth noting that Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick both had their best statistical seasons with Moss in the rotation that year.

The author is using those stats as part of an argument to reinforce Moss' greatness "whether Moss is at all responsible or not"? Seriously? If those stats are going to be used to bolster his argument, then Moss' responsibility for them seems more than a little relevant.

[Noxage]

Relevant:

To my eyes, the article is too skewed in favor of it's thesis.

I don't really agree with that statement at all. The popular consensus is that Rice is unquestionably best receiver ever. The thesis of the article is merely that this may not be true and that we'll have a hard time ever knowing for sure. It's a hedged statement backed up with some data.

I think the title is a bit strong but I'd imagine it was selected to drive some page views. If they were presenting an expanded version of this at Sloan or some other academic conference, my guess is that we'd see something more neutral like: "Randy Moss: Our Richest WR Dataset".

The author blows right by the fact that just 6 games into the post-Moss phase of his career, Culpepper suffered an injury so devastating that many thought he might not even play again. He was never the same player after that. Gee, maybe that had more to do with his struggle to stay a starter in the NFL than not playing with Moss?

Some thought it might be a career ender but it wasn't. He was ready (90% health at the start by his own estimation) so point doesn't really hold much weight with me. He's not the only QB to suffer a significant injury. Plenty of others have gone on to perform at career-normalish levels post-injury. Just as it's not conclusive that Moss leaving was the only reason Culpepper's measured results, neither is his injury.

Besides that, before he got injured, we'd be rapidly updating our prior with the 216 PAs of pure mediocrity he showed on the field before his last season as a Viking. It's a small sample sure, but almost everything in football is. A good Bayesian would have surely downgraded him significantly already before that fateful afternoon in Carolina.

In 2005, Moss went to Oakland, where he underperformed for a round-robin of QBs.

Indeed, he did and his own obvious lack of effort had a lot to with that underperformance

Is it that? Or is part of it that we perceive his effort to be more lacking because of the measured underperformance? Moss famously didn't give full effort at times in Minny or NE but that was more readily swept under the rug because when coupled with competent QBs, his numbers were other-worldly.

, another reason why many feel he can't really compare to rice in a discussion of the greatest of all time.

I realize that this meta-quote does not necessarily reflect your own beliefs so understand that this next statement does not apply to you Sir. That is line of reasoning is some appallingly tortured logic. A player's value is his ability to contribute directly or indirectly to a team's point differential (and transitively their W-L record). Period. How they get there is fairly irrelevant. Assigning value to "trying hard" on top of what a player produces is exactly how relics like Kevin Towers get fired (to switch sports for a second).

The author is using those stats as part of an argument to reinforce Moss' greatness "whether Moss is at all responsible or not"? Seriously? If those stats are going to be used to bolster his argument, then Moss' responsibility for them seems more than a little relevant.

I don't get the vitriol here at all. All Morris and Payne are saying is that the reader may want to note this blip in Kaepernick and Smiths' careers. They're not drawing any strong conclusions directly from it.

[fiestavike]

I suppose but we already knew Moss was a rare talent that had a big impact on many games. Theres little doubt that at his best, he was easily one of the most dangerous receivers, and most difficult matchup problems, in the game's history.

To my eyes, the article is too skewed in favor of it's thesis. It acknowledges how many variables there are in football and then veers right past some of them with comments like this:
The author blows right by the fact that just 6 games into the post-Moss phase of his career, Culpepper suffered an injury so devastating that many thought he might not even play again. He was never the same player after that. Gee, maybe that had more to do with his struggle to stay a starter in the NFL than not playing with Moss?

I Indeed, he did and his own obvious lack of effort had a lot to with that underperformance, another reason why many feel he can't really compare to rice in a discussion of the greatest of all time.
The author is using those stats as part of an argument to reinforce Moss' greatness "whether Moss is at all responsible or not"? Seriously? If those stats are going to be used to bolster his argument, then Moss' responsibility for them seems more than a little relevant.

To me, it is evident that Moss was the most athletically talented WR ever. That isn't the same thing as being the best.

[Mothman]

Some thought it might be a career ender but it wasn't. He was ready (90% health at the start by his own estimation) so point doesn't really hold much weight with me. He's not the only QB to suffer a significant injury. Plenty of others have gone on to perform at career-normalish levels post-injury. Just as it's not conclusive that Moss leaving was the only reason Culpepper's measured results, neither is his injury.

I didn't say it was conclusive but how many other QBs have gone on to perform at a high level after seriously injuring 3 ligaments in one knee in the same injury? That injury had a major impact on the career of a QB whose mobility was a big part of his game and it was at least as potentially impactful as the absence of Moss, arguably much more impactful because it not only had a physical effect on Culpepper's game, it also had an impact on the quality of teams he was able to play for post-injury. Just as Moss ended up stuck in Oakland and underperforming for a few years, Culpepper ended up stuck in pretty bad situations for the remainder of his NFL career. It's certainly a major variable to be considered and the authors of the article glossed right over it while using Culpepper's post-2004 numbers to prop up their point about Moss.

Is it that? Or is part of it that we perceive his effort to be more lacking because of the measured underperformance? Moss famously didn't give full effort at times in Minny or NE but that was more readily swept under the rug because when coupled with competent QBs, his numbers were other-worldly.

In other words, it was a two-way street and other players were boosting Moss' output while he boosted their output.

He was dogging it in Oakland, especially in his second year there, and it was obvious to everyone watching. It's not a perception borne out of statistically-measured underperformance. It's the reason the Raiders were eager to part with him for a 4th round pick two years after trading Napoleon Harris and a first rounder to the Vikes to acquire him. Heck, Moss himself made statements about his lack of focus while in Oakland.

I realize that this meta-quote does not necessarily reflect your own beliefs so understand that this next statement does not apply to you Sir. That is line of reasoning is some appallingly tortured logic. A player's value is his ability to contribute directly or indirectly to a team's point differential (and transitively their W-L record). Period. How they get there is fairly irrelevant. Assigning value to "trying hard" on top of what a player produces is exactly how relics like Kevin Towers get fired (to switch sports for a second).

The amount of effort a player puts forth can have a direct impact on "his ability to contribute directly or indirectly to a team's point differential (and transitively their W-L record)". Effort alone doesn't lead to greatness but it's certainly something to consider when comparing great players. It's a quality that can distinguish one great player from another. Moss actually hurt his team's chances to win games at times because he didn't give a good effort. Can the same be said of Rice?

I don't get the vitriol here at all. All Morris and Payne are saying is that the reader may want to note this blip in Kaepernick and Smiths' careers. They're not drawing any strong conclusions directly from it.

I didn't think I was being vitriolic but they go a bit further with it than you suggest above. They use those QBs as a part of their statistical argument about the "WOWY difference".

It simply strikes me as ridiculous to acknowledge the possibility that Moss may have had nothing to do with the statistical bumps for Smith and Kaepernick that season and to then turn around and use those stats to help prop up an argument about Moss' impact anyway.

As Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". I think Morris and Paine are trying to use the latter to bolster a weak argument and I don't find it convincing. YMMV.

[frosted]

I'm not going to try to prove he's the greatest anything of all time, that's a fools errand no matter who you are trying to make that argument for. There are so many variables in the game of football, you'll never get anywhere trying to compare players from different eras, on different teams, in different situations. In my opinion, Randy Moss was a great football player. Waste of talent? Get the #### out of here with that. He accomplished more than all but a handful of NFL players have ever been able to accomplish. The idea that Randy Moss had 156 touchdowns, 982 reception, and 15,292 yards in his NFL career without putting in hard work is utterly ridiculous. The idea that anyone here can evaluate Randy Moss as a teammate is flat out ignorance. Was he immature at times? Without a doubt. He said all the wrong things when his teams were having losing seasons. By all accounts, he was ultra competitive, and hated not winning. To the person that brought Rice up - The idea that Randy Moss was a moron, and Jerry Rice not a moron (not sure what you mean by that anyways), and THAT is what makes Rice the GOAT is laughable.

http://www.vindy.com/news/2004/sep/21/r ... ons/?print

Rice fumed in the final minutes when he realized he was going to be held without a catch for the first time since his rookie season of 1985, when Ronald Reagan was president and Barry Bonds hadn't even hit the first of his 701 home runs.

Rice, who turns 42 next month, hung his head on the field late in the Raiders' 13-10 win over Buffalo as his run of 274 straight games with a reception came to an end.

He threw his helmet to the ground, causing it to bounce over a metal bench, hollered to himself, and paced the sideline for several minutes. He kicked a yard marker and it grazed the back of an Oakland police officer.

Rice was not around the locker room after team meetings to talk with reporters.

http://articles.latimes.com/1998/sep/28/sports/sp-27320

Rice, of course, contends he is always open, so he wants to know, why don't they get him the ball on every play? Two weeks ago the 49ers beat the Redskins by 35 points, but Rice threw a sideline tantrum, screaming at Coach Steve Mariucci because he finished with only four catches.

Some people believe in letting a baby cry, others immediately respond. Mariucci promptly crafted a game plan designed to make Rice happy, six of the first 10 plays Rice was on the field against Atlanta Sunday designed to go his way.

...

Two years ago Rice, distressed because he didn't get the ball more, stormed out of the 49er locker room after catching five passes in a remarkable 10-9 win under Jeff Brohm, playing for an injured Young.

http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/19 ... 5624.shtml

The furor surrounding Rice stemmed from his remarks after Sunday night's 31-20 win over New Orleans.

Rice, the NFL's career leader in touchdowns, receptions and yards receiving, was a non-factor during much of the game and at times was relegated to the sidelines while fellow wideouts Terrell Owens and J.J. Stokes were on the field.

He was held without a reception in the first half for the first time in six years and finished with three catches for 27 yards, including an 8-yard touchdown pass from Steve Young.

Afterward, the 36-year-old Rice fumed about his lack of involvement and suggested perhaps the time had come for him to quit.

"Maybe I've been spoiled over the years, but this is not 49ers football," he said. "Or maybe the Man's giving me a sign.

"If you ask me if I'm having a good time, no. Is this something that might want to make you retire, hell yes. All I know is I'm not having a good time. Maybe it's time for me to move on."

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1901415

ALAMEDA, Calif. -- Jerry Rice is tired of being fourth, fifth or even sixth fiddle behind the Oakland Raiders' talented young receivers -- and he wants out.

Rice asked the Raiders to trade him if he's no longer going to have a significant role, and he met with owner Al Davis on Wednesday night to discuss his options.

"If there's something that can be done, it will be done," said coach Norv Turner, who has spoken to Rice several times recently. "Everything's too vague right now for me to get into any specifics. He's expressed his wishes, and we'll just see what happens."

The last time Davis met with a receiver was during training camp, and Tim Brown was released the next day after refusing to accept a greatly diminished role with the Raiders.

Rice is making $1.35 million in base salary this season. He spent Wednesday -- his 42nd birthday -- defending his ability to catch passes yet again. That's the umpteenth time already this season.

His complaining is becoming a weekly occurrence.

"I'm not trying to force anything, but, you know, it doesn't make any sense for me to stay here if things continue going this way," Rice said, reiterating he'd like to be traded.

"I didn't envision what's going down right now. I pretty much was under the impression I was going to be a big factor this year, be a part of the offense and have opportunities to make plays."

Any Cris Carter fans in the house?

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jul/31 ... l-20130731

Calling Carter "a bona fide diva," Ismail compared him unfavorably to another former teammate and Hall of Famer, Shannon Sharpe, a tight end who played two years with Ismail for the Baltimore Ravens.

"Shannon was that kind of a guy that you just knew that he was in your corner. You couldn’t say the same thing for Cris Carter," Ismail said. "You couldn’t say the same thing as far as his attitude towards his teammates. You couldn’t say the same thing as far as his attitude as far as the coaching staff. You knew that he had a selfishness to him that was an extreme selfishness.”

Those guys were just fierce competitors though - Moss, he was a cancer, and a terrible teammate.

"In my experience with him and observing the reactions of those around him, Moss was a positive force, completely lacking any sense of entitlement. He brought a big smile and a strong work ethic on a day-in, day-out basis.

The troubles with Moss tend to show up when the losing kicks in. Naturally, the NFL has a lot at stake in wins and loses. Randy seems to have a hard time finding a productive outlet to vent his frustrations when a team begins to struggle.

This feeling compounds when you throw in the team's failure to utilize his talents in a way which could help the team swing the negative momentum. To keep things in perspective, Moss' frustrations were never aimed at his teammates or coaches—he is not a guy who points fingers at others."

"He helps the young guys, coaches them up, and he’s positive about everything. He wants to win. This is what he believes he was made for. I think he’s awesome at it.”

“You don’t know him. I know him. I’m proud of him.”

“He has a tremendous football IQ. The guy has the ability to dominate a game even when he’s not touching the ball.”

“He taught me a lot about what I can do to become a better player and a better man.”

"He's an explosive, dynamic player, and probably the smartest receiver I've ever coached. I know he absolutely knows what he's doing and knows what the defense is doing."

Almost like clockwork, Moss hits the swimming pool at the 49ers facility each day to help keep his 35-year-old body in tiptop shape.

And his 49ers teammates also are taking to hitting the pool.

"If Moss is doing it, you got to do it, especially as a young receiver," rookie wideout Chris Owusu said. "You want to emulate everything that he does because he's been to the top, he's a Hall of Fame receiver, so you got to go out and do what he does."

Owusu said his time in a swimming pool before Moss arrived was limited to rehab sessions.

These days, Owusu is learning the benefits of swimming laps, holding his breath and working multiple muscles at one time.

Owusu said the swimming has helped increase his endurance and lung capacity, while providing another outlet for him to bond with his new teammates.

"Not only getting closer, but you're getting better at the same time," Owusu said.

Guard Mike Iupati spent some time in the pool last season. He used to be able to swim freely without fear of running into another swimmer.

Now, it's not uncommon for 30 or more players to be in the pool at one time. Moss, who didn't speak to the media on Tuesday, orchestrates competitions that include races and seeing who can hold his breath the longest.

"He has helped a lot and showed, especially the receivers, what to do," Iupati said. "Get in the pool, you need to swim laps and hold your breath. It's a huge benefit."

Safety Donte Whitner says he and others can learn from Moss in myriad ways.

"You can just watch him each and every day," Whitner said. "He's one of the first guys here, one of the last guys to leave, he's always in the cold tub, he's always swimming in the bottom of the swimming pool we have in there, steam room, sauna, ice tub."

"Randy, when he first got here, he coached me up on some routes, how to position myself when catching deep balls and jump after the ball," Davis said. "He's definitely been a leader."

“You just try to soak up everything. For him to be able to still be in this league at that age is a feat. I see how he works out every day, how he swims and keeps his body right.

"At the end of the meeting, Randy turned to Jim Harbaugh and said, 'Coach, what do you want me to do, what can I do for you?'" Gannon said. "And Jim looked at him and said, 'For starters I'd like you to sit in the front row of my meetings.'

"He said by doing that it's brought guys like Crabtree, who'd hang out in the back, and some of these other young guys, now they're sitting up front with Randy Moss," he said. "They don't have the hoodies on anymore. They're alert. They're paying attention. Randy's taking notes. Every meeting that coach has had, Randy Moss has been sitting in the front row."

My point is, you can find bad stuff about Moss out there, and you can find good stuff about Moss out there. But that's no different than anyone. You could just as easily call Jerry Rice an "arrogant punk" (as someone referred to Moss up-thread).

[The Breeze]

Thank you, Frosted.

[frosted]

As Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". I think Morris and Paine are trying to use the latter to bolster a weak argument and I don't find it convincing. YMMV.

Just so I understand, are you saying that you don't believe he had a large positive impact on the quarterbacks he played with? Or are you just saying their argument for it is a bad one?

Moss actually hurt his team's chances to win games at times because he didn't give a good effort. Can the same be said of Rice?

Care to qualify that statement?

[Mothman]

Just so I understand, are you saying that you don't believe he had a large positive impact on the quarterbacks he played with? Or are you just saying their argument for it is a bad one?

The latter. He didn't have a "large positive impact" on every QB he played with over the years but he certainly made a significant for most of them. I think Moss was a great player. I'm not arguing against that view.

Care to qualify that statement?

In what way? It's meaning seems self-evident.

[Noxage]

it also had an impact on the quality of teams he was able to play for post-injury.

Drew Brees seemed to do ok in pretty much the exact same situation. And I'd argue tooth and nail that a torn labrum in a QB's throwing shoulder is more impactful than the type of knee injury Culpepper sufered.

A QB, more than any position in any North American team sport, has an opportunity to single-handedly transform the overall quality of their team. So again, did Culpepper get stuck on bad teams? Or did ok teams get stuck with Culpepper?

Is it that? Or is part of it that we perceive his effort to be more lacking because of the measured underperformance? Moss famously didn't give full effort at times in Minny or NE but that was more readily swept under the rug because when coupled with competent QBs, his numbers were other-worldly.

In other words, it was a two-way street and other players were boosting Moss' output while he boosted their output.

For sure. The effect goes both ways and that's part of the reason why this is so tough. The Brady-Moss 2007 season is about as clear an example of this as we'll see.

Oakland man. What a trip. I honestly forgot about Napolean Harris' existence until you mentioned him. I'm not even going to mention who we used that pick on either for the sake of everyone's health.

The 2nd year in Oak was a disaster all around. That year, I'll admit he was basically not trying. Year 1 though I don't remember it being an issue and Collins saw a small uptick in his measured results.

The amount of effort a player puts forth can have a direct impact on "his ability to contribute directly or indirectly to a team's point differential (and transitively their W-L record)". Effort alone doesn't lead to greatness but it's certainly something to consider when comparing great players. It's a quality that can distinguish one great player from another. Moss actually hurt his team's chances to win games at times because he didn't give a good effort. Can the same be said of Rice?

Sure but if we're measuring the right things (we're probably not or more accurately, we probably can't right now), his effort's impact on point differential should be baked into the measurements and thus we don't need to give or take away extra credit in arbitrary amounts.

As Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". I think Morris and Paine are trying to use the latter to bolster a weak argument and I don't find it convincing. YMMV.

Mark Twain lived in an era where even the most simplistic computer did not exist. Given his love for technology and innovation, I doubt very much he'd be singing a similar tune if he were born 100 years later (though that's obviously some pretty wild speculation on my part). Regardless, his opinions and pithy quips regarding something he didn't (couldn't) understand don't mean anything.

At the end of the day, if you're not convinced by this article that Moss is not the greatest receiver of all time, that's completely valid and honestly probably the right stance to take. As mentioned, the article is far from conclusive, I just found it interesting and offered a few insights that I was not aware of regarding his statistical profile.

Technical Football analysis is hard. Damn hard. With the given data sets that we have I would even argue it's borderline impossible. Things are so enmeshed, so hard to untangle that coming to any strong conclusions that don't over-reach is very difficult. It's a completely different animal than analysis in the MLB, NBA and NHL. This difficulty was acknowledged repeatedly in the article and it's one of the reasons I shared it.

Regarding Rice vs. Moss. If someone wants to say they think Rice was better than Moss, I have no problem with that. But, for the above stated reasons, it better not be an argument based on yardage totals and TDs as those are even cruder proxies to underlying talent levels and impact on contributions to winning.