PHP's Official Vikings Mock Offseason

[Cliff]

And thanks for the write up, by the way, it was a good read.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Anyway, who's to say that a more aggressive defense wouldn't have just got burned even more? It's all well and good to say we needed to generate more pressure. I'm sure that would have helped if more aggressive game planning meant more pressure. That's no guarantee at all.

Agreed nothing is guaranteed but I would have to say that if we blitz more and we are worse, then we literally have the worst defense of all time. Giving different looks, stacking a line to confuse a QB and only bringing 3-4 sometimes, stacking the line and bringing the house sometimes, etc....this is all things that we never did. I think it is clear and obvious that this is why lowly passers like Daniel Jones, Mac Jones and Mike White had career days against us. It's very easy to scheme against. It's very easy to pick apart. No QB was challenged that we played against.

We literally lined up 4, rushed those 4, dropped our LBs, never had our DBs in press and had our safeties deep. Over and over and over again. You're having your two best rushers and really your only rushers and drop them into coverage. Like this was literally the most vanilla, high school playbook I've honestly ever seen. It reminded me a lot of the 2013 Tampa 2 Frazier defense. Which was equally as bad. 2nd to last in total defense just like 2022 was. And in one year, Mike Zimmer brought that defense from #31 to #14. In one offseason. Zimmer's time eventually ran out but in one year by employing a more aggressive scheme, the defense skyrocketed. That's something Flores can do with this defense in year 1. Get them within the top half of the league. When you're already getting burned by sitting back like Donatell was, the fact that he continued to sit back and make zero adjustments drove me insane. You cant worry about a blitz burning you when you're literally already getting burned game after game. I think Donatell's problem was, we were winning most of the year (thanks to the offense) so he thought what he was doing was working. And it clearly wasnt.

[VikingLord]

Given Flores was hired, they will definitely be staying in a 3-4 but a much more aggressive one that employs a lot of cover 0 and cover 1. We are going to need to get younger and faster under Flores because of how he runs his scheme. Which makes me think guys like Kendricks and Hicks will be gone. Kendricks looked like he was starting to decline even in Zimmer's scheme last year. Asamoah will 100% be a starter I think. Same goes for Cine. And I wouldnt be surprised if you see Booth or Evans starting somewhere along with a FA corner or two.

I agree with you on Asamoah. He was a great pick last year where KAM got him and he's going to shine under Flores I think.

Also can't wait to see what Cine brings to the table. He was an aggressive player in college and I suspect he too will fit perfectly into what Flores wants to do. Assuming he's fully healed up I think he too is going to make his presence felt next year.

[Cliff]

Agreed nothing is guaranteed but I would have to say that if we blitz more and we are worse, then we literally have the worst defense of all time. Giving different looks, stacking a line to confuse a QB and only bringing 3-4 sometimes, stacking the line and bringing the house sometimes, etc....this is all things that we never did. I think it is clear and obvious that this is why lowly passers like Daniel Jones, Mac Jones and Mike White had career days against us. It's very easy to scheme against. It's very easy to pick apart. No QB was challenged that we played against. We literally lined up 4, rushed those 4, dropped our LBs, never had our DBs in press and had our safeties deep. Over and over and over again. You're having your two best rushers and really your only rushers and drop them into coverage. Like this was literally the most vanilla, high school playbook I've honestly ever seen. It reminded me a lot of the 2013 Tampa 2 Frazier defense. Which was equally as bad. 2nd to last in total defense just like 2022 was.

I guess my main point is that most of the players on the team, especially the higher tier players, were on the 2020 and 2021 defenses that did play more aggressively. They did blitz more. They did mix up their looks. And the defenses still sucked.

And in one year, Mike Zimmer brought that defense from #31 to #14. In one offseason. Zimmer's time eventually ran out but in one year by employing a more aggressive scheme, the defense skyrocketed. That's something Flores can do with this defense in year 1. Get them within the top half of the league. When you're already getting burned by sitting back like Donatell was, the fact that he continued to sit back and make zero adjustments drove me insane. You cant worry about a blitz burning you when you're literally already getting burned game after game. I think Donatell's problem was, we were winning most of the year (thanks to the offense) so he thought what he was doing was working. And it clearly wasnt.

And yet that same coach, who demonstrated his ability to field a good-to-great defense reliably, and indeed helped to hand pick them for his scheme, couldn't turn these players into an even average defense.

By the way, Donatell's defense did actually step up on a number of occasions. Comebacks don't happen if the defense can't stop the other team from scoring. Period. That 33 point comeback meant the defense had to stop the other team from scoring something like 5 or 6 times in a row. I know the stats are awful, but they stepped up over and over during the season when things mattered most.

[Texas Vike]

but they stepped up over and over during the season when things mattered most.

Like the playoffs?

I don't mean to be snarky, Cliff, and I get your point. But there were lots of times when they simply DIDN'T step up. They did against the Colts (after letting a horrendous team get way up on them) but that's just not worth much in my book. They made a lot of mid to bad offenses look great this year.

I do see your point about Zimmer's D, but it always seemed to me like the league figured him out because it was just such a sudden fall off from how strong his D's had been.

I give a strong recommendation to this episode of the Matt Fries' Kindred Skols Podcast:
https://twitter.com/kindredskols/status ... 532577283

[media]Kindred Skols Podcast
@kindredskols
New Episode! The guys discuss the Brian Flores hire and put a bow on the 2022 season.

Download Link Hub: http://kindredskols.buzzsprout.com
iTunes:
Spotify:
Youtube:
RSS: http://feeds.buzzsprout.com/1848207.rss[/media]
They do an awesome job giving an overview of Flores' history w/ the Patriots and Dolphins as well as his defensive philosophy.

[Pondering Her Percy]

I guess my main point is that most of the players on the team, especially the higher tier players, were on the 2020 and 2021 defenses that did play more aggressively. They did blitz more. They did mix up their looks. And the defenses still sucked.

Agreed it did still suck but again, Zimmer at the end of his tenure is tough to judge because I believe he lost the team at that point. Players didnt enjoy being around him. That was proved following his firing. Players werent playing for him like they were playing for O'Connell. And if I recall, I was complaining in Zimmer's final year that they also werent blitzing very often and constantly relying on their ends to get the job done. He shied away from the double A gap blitz he was known for way more in his final years. So I'm not really sure how much Zimmer was mixing up looks or blitzing in 2021.

And yet that same coach, who demonstrated his ability to field a good-to-great defense reliably, and indeed helped to hand pick them for his scheme, couldn't turn these players into an even average defense.

By the way, Donatell's defense did actually step up on a number of occasions. Comebacks don't happen if the defense can't stop the other team from scoring. Period. That 33 point comeback meant the defense had to stop the other team from scoring something like 5 or 6 times in a row. I know the stats are awful, but they stepped up over and over during the season when things mattered most.

Yeah the defense was 8th in the NFL in turnovers. I dont think that has a whole lot to do with this scheme though. That's savvy veterans like Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson making plays. I can think of a handful of turnovers that had nothing to do with Ed Donatell and had everything to do with the player. If it wasnt for these guys making these plays, we would've indeed had one of the worst defenses in NFL history.

Flores' defense is probably going to take a year to build although I dont know if I see them being 31st again next year. Maybe in the 20's. But Flores is going to have some key pieces to build off of. We're just going to need more which they will gun for in free agency and the draft.

[Cliff]

Like the playoffs?

No, they certainly didn't have a good game but even then they forced a punt on the Giant's last drive and put the ball back into the offense's hands with 3 minutes left for a chance to go into overtime. If you recall, it was the offense that blew the opportunity for the win in the end.

I don't mean to be snarky, Cliff, and I get your point. But there were lots of times when they simply DIDN'T step up. They did against the Colts (after letting a horrendous team get way up on them) but that's just not worth much in my book. They made a lot of mid to bad offenses look great this year.

No question they weren't a great defense but they stepped up more times than not ... or the team wouldn't have been 13-4. The offense can't stop the other team from scoring while they made one of their 9 come from behind victories.

Was it mostly the defenses fault that they were in those situations, yes. Still, comeback wins are impossible without the defense either creating turnovers and/or forcing punts.

I do see your point about Zimmer's D, but it always seemed to me like the league figured him out because it was just such a sudden fall off from how strong his D's had been.

What happened to Mike Zimmer is exactly what he said would happen if the team paid a large amount of money for a QB. Which is that the defense would suffer and he'd lose his job.

2017 defense ranks 1st yds/game
2018 bring in Cousins defense ranks 4th yds/game
2019 14th YDS/game
2020 27th yds/game
2021 30th yds/game
2022 31st yds/game

Screenshot 2023-02-08 114932.png (15.91 KiB) Viewed 403 times

[Pondering Her Percy]

No, they certainly didn't have a good game but even then they forced a punt on the Giant's last drive and put the ball back into the offense's hands with 3 minutes left for a chance to go into overtime. If you recall, it was the offense that blew the opportunity for the win in the end.

The Vikings defense gave up 31 points to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The last thing I'm going to blame is the offense. Daniel Jones threw 15 TD passes in 17 games. The Giants WRs are arguably one of the worst receiving cores in the NFL. In two games against this defense, Jones was 54/77 (70% comp. rate) with 635 passing yards. This guy crossed 300+ passing yards three times the entire year. Twice against the Vikings and once against the Lions who were also a terrible defense.

By allowing 31 points, that was asking the offense to put up 31+ to win the game... in the playoffs. That's a tall task for any team in the playoffs and a very unfair ask if you ask me. There is no defending this defense or more so, the scheme. It allowed QBs to walk down the field on us, some of the worst QBs in the NFL no less and zero adjustments were made. I will never, ever blame the offense for what happened in that Giants game.

No question they weren't a great defense but they stepped up more times than not ... or the team wouldn't have been 13-4. The offense can't stop the other team from scoring while they made one of their 9 come from behind victories.

The offense was 8th in the NFL in ppg and the defense was 30th in the NFL in points allowed. Granted our offense had it's flaws, but our offense was a solid 80% of the reason we went 13-4.

What happened to Mike Zimmer is exactly what he said would happen if the team paid a large amount of money for a QB. Which is that the defense would suffer and he'd lose his job.

2017 defense ranks 1st yds/game
2018 bring in Cousins defense ranks 4th yds/game
2019 14th YDS/game
2020 27th yds/game
2021 30th yds/game
2022 31st yds/game


Screenshot 2023-02-08 114932.png

Then Mike Zimmer should've never been a head coach if he believes you cant build around a QB with a big contract. This was Zimmer in a nutshell. Directing blame at someone else other than himself. Sure, that chart to anyone that has a problem with Cousins or his contract is going to make them drool. However, what did the Zimmer/Spielman defensive draft classes from 2018-2021 look like?....

2018
Mike Hughes- never panned out
Jalyn Holmes- never panned out
Ade Aruna- never panned out
Devante Downs- never panned out

2019
Cameron Smith- never panned out
Armon Watts- never panned out
Marcus Epps- was cut and now starts for Philly
Kris Boyd- never panned out

2020
Jeff Gladney- never panned out (RIP)
Cam Dantzler- meh
DJ Wonnum- meh
James Lynch- never panned out
Troy Dye- never panned out
Harrison Hand- never panned out
Josh Metellus- solid backup
Kenny Willekes- never panned out
Brian Cole- never panned out

2021
Chazz Surratt- never panned out
Patrick Jones- some potential
Cam Bynum- starter soon to be a backup
Janarius Robinson- never panned out
Jaylen Twyman- never panned out

Notice out of 22 defensive players drafted, never once did I say "stud" or "legit starter" or anything along those lines. We literally landed ONE defensive starter (Bynum) in 4 draft classes and Bynum should probably head back to the bench in 2023. Yet Mike Zimmer hedged his bet and said "If I fail, it's Cousins fault". Kirk Cousins was the only reason Mike Zimmer had a job for as long as he did. Because if he kept someone like Case Keenum or Teddy Bridgewater and drafted defense like they did, they'd have about 3 wins every year.

On top of that, in the 2021 offseason, Spielman and Zimmer spent $31 million solely on their defense. So I dont buy into them not having the money to maintain a good football team. They did. But when you find ONE below average starter out of 22 draft picks, that's what going to cause Mike Zimmer to lose his job. Not Kirk Cousins.

In the end, this is a very skewed chart that can (and will be) easily misunderstood. Whoever posted it was looking for clickbait because any fan that researches behind this enough, will realize that the downfall of the defense had a lot to do with missing draft picks and not building on what we had. How many of those players from the 2017 defense was let go because we couldnt afford to pay them? Zero. Hell, it goes even further back than 2018. The 2016 and 2017 defensive draft was just as bad too. And I've always been a Spielman supporter but this was a rough, rough stretch for him and Zim.

[StumpHunter]

Kwesi will cut both if Thielen and Harrison refuses to take a pay cut

I disagree. Cutting both of them outright is $25+ million in dead money and only saves $13.7 million combined between the two. Not sure why any GM would do that. Harrison can still play and play at a solid level. Thielen on the other hand, is going backwards fast. I think Thielen is the no brainer cut this offseason.

I wouldn't get too caught up in how much dead cap those cuts would create. The dead cap from cutting them is because of signing bonuses that are a sunk cost and a savvy GM wouldn't take that into consideration when deciding whether or not to move on from a player.

There are extreme cases where that isn't true, but in general signing bonus coming due early because of a cut can be countered easily by just converting another player's salary to signing bonus, or with the structure of extensions or other signings.

[Cliff]

The Vikings defense gave up 31 points to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The last thing I'm going to blame is the offense. Daniel Jones threw 15 TD passes in 17 games. The Giants WRs are arguably one of the worst receiving cores in the NFL. In two games against this defense, Jones was 54/77 (70% comp. rate) with 635 passing yards. This guy crossed 300+ passing yards three times the entire year. Twice against the Vikings and once against the Lions who were also a terrible defense.

By allowing 31 points, that was asking the offense to put up 31+ to win the game... in the playoffs. That's a tall task for any team in the playoffs and a very unfair ask if you ask me. There is no defending this defense or more so, the scheme. It allowed QBs to walk down the field on us, some of the worst QBs in the NFL no less and zero adjustments were made. I will never, ever blame the offense for what happened in that Giants game.

The offense did much better than the defense but the fact remains, with the game on the line the offense couldn't get it done.

The offense was 8th in the NFL in ppg and the defense was 30th in the NFL in points allowed. Granted our offense had it's flaws, but our offense was a solid 80% of the reason we went 13-4.

All season long both offense and defense often didn't come alive until the 3rd or 4th quarter. Both units were some of the best in the league in the 4th quarter. If it wasn't for the defense making stands late in the game, the offense's stats would be garbage as they would never have had the opportunities to put up those points.

In other words, the defense making stands and getting the ball back to the offense late in the game directly contributed to the offense putting up the numbers they did. Without those stands, if the defense had let opponents go on sustained drives and close out the game, imagine what the offense's stats would look like after the crap games they usually had in the 1st half?

Then Mike Zimmer should've never been a head coach if he believes you cant build around a QB with a big contract.

Agreed. He never had a real plan for the offense, he only ran half the team most of the time he was coach. It was obvious that was his plan from the beginning with Norv Turner.

Honestly, I'm concerned about this with KOC too just in reverse. Coordinators come and go, he needs to have plans for both sides of the ball with a DC helping implement them and not completely take over.

This was Zimmer in a nutshell. Directing blame at someone else other than himself. Sure, that chart to anyone that has a problem with Cousins or his contract is going to make them drool. However, what did the Zimmer/Spielman defensive draft classes from 2018-2021 look like?....

Indeed, the drafts weren't very good ... so it would have been super useful if they had enough cap space to sign some additional free agents and maybe not let some players walk

Notice out of 22 defensive players drafted, never once did I say "stud" or "legit starter" or anything along those lines.

I snipped the various drafts to save space. Suffice it to say we've come full circle except now you're arguing my point for me - the talent on this defense is lacking. Due to bad drafting coupled the inability to sign more free agent talent due to lack of cap space.

It's not Kirk's fault the defense went down hill directly, rather it was the team's (and primarily Speilman's) decision to go "all in" in 2018. I'm sure the idea was to build the defense through the draft if they had to spend the "free agent money" on Kirk. As you've clearly shown though, they didn't draft well and so that plan has failed.

[StumpHunter]

Then Mike Zimmer should've never been a head coach if he believes you cant build around a QB with a big contract. Agreed. He never had a real plan for the offense, he only ran half the team most of the time he was coach. It was obvious that was his plan from the beginning with Norv Turner.

Honestly, I'm concerned about this with KOC too just in reverse. Coordinators come and go, he needs to have plans for both sides of the ball with a DC helping implement them and not completely take over.

I am sure KOC has valuable insights on what kind of defenses are easy to scheme his offenses around and is able to work with his DC to figure out how his offense would beat their defense, just like I am sure Zimmer would work with his OC to tell them how his D would attack their offense. There is a reason Zimmer has gotten the most out of every QB has coached, and I think some of the end of game success by the D despite poor showings for most of the game are the result of KOC's influence.

As for building a team around a high priced QB, I don't know if Zimmer would have had the same complaint if that high priced QB was Patrick Mahomes or his GM was John Lynch. To your point, when you are paying a QB that much you need to nail drafts since you can't cover for mistakes with free agents or you need a QB who elevates lesser players so you don't need to put as much around him.

[StumpHunter]

Overall a solid plan and not a whole lot to disagree with here.

I think I might keep Reed over Schlottman since I think the blocking seemed to improve when he came in for Schlottman. Snapping the football was tough for Reed, but that is something he can learn if he worked on it for a full off season.

Cutting Wonnum saves almost another 3 million in cap and that is too much for a guy who would be the 4th or 5th option at OLB.

Reagor is a bad punt returner and a worse WR. Cutting him saves nothing, but it does open up a roster spot for someone who might actually have potential and it also gets a guy who muffs a ton of punts off the team.

Thielen can't be cut post-June 1st. His contract is going to be fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year.

Outside of that, It is a roster that could take a step back in 2023, but is still competitive and one that has potential to turn into something great in future seasons. I read too many plans that try to run things back at the expense of future cap, but yours doesn't really do that which is why I like it. A plan that gives hope of something better.

[JJBreaksRecords]

I believe they will KEEP Harrison Smith. Not only will they keep him, he will run the entire D when Flores gets done with him. We will see more of Harrys sacks. Plus he will the QB of the D.

We cant keep Z. He started out on a terror and than slowed down.

I think we will see a lot of Harry, Cine, and Bynum in a 3 safety formation. Cam is the weak link but the 3 of them will do a good job.

Hunter will get more plays to do what he does about as well as anyone in the NFL, harass QBs

I am really looking forward to this season. I hope KAM doesnt get too cute this season in the draft.

TJ will emerge as one of the best TE's in the NFC.

[Pondering Her Percy]

I disagree. Cutting both of them outright is $25+ million in dead money and only saves $13.7 million combined between the two. Not sure why any GM would do that. Harrison can still play and play at a solid level. Thielen on the other hand, is going backwards fast. I think Thielen is the no brainer cut this offseason.

I wouldn't get too caught up in how much dead cap those cuts would create. The dead cap from cutting them is because of signing bonuses that are a sunk cost and a savvy GM wouldn't take that into consideration when deciding whether or not to move on from a player.

There are extreme cases where that isn't true, but in general signing bonus coming due early because of a cut can be countered easily by just converting another player's salary to signing bonus, or with the structure of extensions or other signings.

True but at the same time, I saw a stat the other day that said in 2021, Flores sent like 200+ safety blitzes whereas Donatell sent Harrison 14 times. Harrison Smith sounds like he's essentially the perfect safety for Flores' scheme. I dont see him leaving at all.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Overall a solid plan and not a whole lot to disagree with here.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

I think I might keep Reed over Schlottman since I think the blocking seemed to improve when he came in for Schlottman. Snapping the football was tough for Reed, but that is something he can learn if he worked on it for a full off season.

I actually thought about this and I actually believe Reed is a halfway decent guard. However, we never saw him there because ours were healthy all season. But I wouldnt be against this.

Cutting Wonnum saves almost another 3 million in cap and that is too much for a guy who would be the 4th or 5th option at OLB.

Pondered this as well. As you know, I've never been a big Wonnum fan. He just doesnt do it for me. So I'm not against this either.

Reagor is a bad punt returner and a worse WR. Cutting him saves nothing, but it does open up a roster spot for someone who might actually have potential and it also gets a guy who muffs a ton of punts off the team.

Yeah the main reason I didnt cut him was because it didnt save anything. But I also dont think it hurts us if we do cut him.

Thielen can't be cut post-June 1st. His contract is going to be fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year.

Good point. So yeah he's a must cut/trade prior to June 1.

Outside of that, It is a roster that could take a step back in 2023, but is still competitive and one that has potential to turn into something great in future seasons. I read too many plans that try to run things back at the expense of future cap, but yours doesn't really do that which is why I like it. A plan that gives hope of something better.

Yes my entire goal in this mock was to NOT push cap into the following years and trying to run it back. They still have plenty under contract that they can run it back with that are actually good players and not over the hill. I think this is a must going into this offseason. We have to cut the dead weight, move on and get younger and faster. Not saying getting rid of every aging vet because I feel like someone like Harrison Smith still brings a ton of value to this team but the ones that are no longer performing (Hicks, Kendricks, Thielen) have to be gone. And I think it's the perfect time to trade Dalvin as well.