PHP's Mini Mock Offseason

[StumpHunter]

I’ll pass. Was never sold on him

In his first start against the Bears this season he didn't even complete 50% of his passes. No thanks you can find that anywhere. He will be a cheap backup/change of pace QB for them. The 49ers missed on that deal but they made up for it with Purdy. If there's a GM of the year it has to be the 49er person. Purdy saved the season for them.

Lol, listen to yourself. "in his first start he didn't even complete 50% of his passes", so no thanks? The guy was playing in a downpour and we all should know by now that the first game of the season rarely tells us how the entire season will go. Not to mention you have QBs like Allen and Hurts who took almost two whole seasons to become great passers, and you are writing him off after one game?

I can almost guarantee I have watched more of Trey Lance than anyone else on here and can tell you he has all the tools you want out of a modern NFL QB. He has the arm, he has the mobility, he has the size and he has the decision making to be a great QB, which is why the "GM of the year" traded multiple 1sts for the opportunity to draft him.

It doesn't matter though, because I do not believe he will be available for a trade next season. My guess is that they keep him around and as much as I want Purdy to be great, his game reminds me a bit too much of Nick Foles.

[J. Kapp 11]

I’m in agreement with pretty much everything you’ve outlined here, especially the veterans.

One reason I think you re-structure Smith is that I believe Donatell misused him in a huge way. Harry is on of the great in-the-box safeties in Vikings history, yet Donatell insisted on playing him in the parking lot. Even with that, he managed five picks. But Donatell almost completely removed him from being effective against the run, and he almost never used Harry to blitz, which he excels at. Safeties can play effectively past 30, so with the right coordinator, I think he’s got a couple good years left.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case with Adam Thielen, one of my favorite Vikings of all time. He ranked almost dead last against man coverage, even though he saw a lot of it as teams doubled and tripled JJ. He also ranked very poorly in contested catches. He just doesn’t have the explosion anymore.

The other cuts seem obvious to me.

Cook … I won’t get deep into it because I’ve already spoken at length on the subject. It’s time to cut ties. If they can get anything in trade, they need to do it. However, I doubt there’s much of a market for him. He can still play, but with his $10M base salary traveling with him, he’s almost untradeable. Who’s going to give up draft capital AND inherit that cap hit for a running back? Another brilliant move by Rick Spielman.

How so? After he is cut this off season, he will have made about 8 million per year over his 3 seasons here, while having asignificantly higher impact on his offense than most RBs out there and who more importantly, remained more healthy than most RBs out there.

Cook's contract was actually a good signing, and this is coming from one of Rick's biggest detractors.

I'm not talking about the past. I'm talking about the future. His contract wasn't just for the past 3 seasons, 2 of which were actually part of his previous contract. It also extends the next two years into the future.

Cook, if kept on this contract, will cost the Vikings $30 million to the cap in 2023 and 2024. Only AFTER 2024 is Cook's contract completely devoid of dead money. THAT is why his contract is so bad. For his seasons 8 and 9, a running back will cost $30 million to the cap, with total dead cap of nearly $10 million. Please explain to me how that is a good contract ... especially given the success of late-round picks such as Elijah Mitchell.

And for the record, Dalvin Cook was not that good this year. He ranked LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards over expected. Last. He broke two long runs and one long screen pass. He had just 5 rushes of at least 20 yards. Overthecap put his valuation at $8.5 million ... his cap hit was $12 million.

It's a bad contract. It's one of the worst contracts for a running back I've ever seen. Half of the $60 million total comes in 2023 and 2024, when he is clearly past his prime. I will be stunned if they don't move off him, eat the dead cap, and use the cap savings to sign players they actually need.

[VikingLord]

...as much as I want Purdy to be great, his game reminds me a bit too much of Nick Foles.

I don't know why you want him to be great, but if there were ever an example of a system QB in the NFL, Brock Purdy is that QB. He's asked to do very little in actuality. Most of his throws are relatively short timing routes. Granted, he isn't forcing those or making glaring errors to his credit, but there is almost no evidence Purdy is able to create when the play breaks down or extend plays. Plus, he's got an excellent OL in front of him and excellent skill position players all around him coupled with what might be the league's best overall defense backing him on the other side of the ball.

Purdy has done so surprising well for a rookie drafted where he was drafted that I think people are missing the forest from the trees with him. I saw someone say Trey Lance will be offered for trade in FA, but I suspect it is Brock Purdy who the 49ers will try to get something for ala what a strong Patriots team did with Jimmy G. when he subbed in for an injured Brady and ended up looking pretty good not because he was very good, but because he played on a very good team with a good head coach who could ensure he looked as good as possible.

The 49ers will maximize Purdy's perceived value and then try to ship him for a haul of picks while they hold on to the QB they expect to become their franchise guy. That is guy is Trey Lance.

[Pondering Her Percy]

...as much as I want Purdy to be great, his game reminds me a bit too much of Nick Foles.

I don't know why you want him to be great, but if there were ever an example of a system QB in the NFL, Brock Purdy is that QB. He's asked to do very little in actuality. Most of his throws are relatively short timing routes. Granted, he isn't forcing those or making glaring errors to his credit, but there is almost no evidence Purdy is able to create when the play breaks down or extend plays. Plus, he's got an excellent OL in front of him and excellent skill position players all around him coupled with what might be the league's best overall defense backing him on the other side of the ball.

Purdy has done so surprising well for a rookie drafted where he was drafted that I think people are missing the forest from the trees with him. I saw someone say Trey Lance will be offered for trade in FA, but I suspect it is Brock Purdy who the 49ers will try to get something for ala what a strong Patriots team did with Jimmy G. when he subbed in for an injured Brady and ended up looking pretty good not because he was very good, but because he played on a very good team with a good head coach who could ensure he looked as good as possible.

The 49ers will maximize Purdy's perceived value and then try to ship him for a haul of picks while they hold on to the QB they expect to become their franchise guy. That is guy is Trey Lance.

I also feel like the 49ers are one offense that does not rely on a great QB. Shanahan does such a good job getting his QBs to go in and simply do their job. He doesnt ask for more than they can handle but also doesnt treat them like newborn. As for Lance, yes his first start was rough and that didnt help but well prior to that, I just wasnt big on him. I'm not really sure if he's the answer. Nor do I see him going up for trade either. As for Purdy, I dont buy into him being anything special. He's a flash in the pan that is doing his job in the one offense that can still be successful without a really good QB. If anything, I think the 49ers ship Purdy off, not Lance. Shanahan is tied to him way too much.

[IIsweet]

I can see definitely walking away from Cook as well. Late rd RB's recently doing well include 2021 4th rd NE Stevenson, rd 4 CAR Hubbard, rd 5 PHI Gainwell, rd 6 SF Mitchell, rd 6 CHI Herbert; 2022 Rd 4 HOU Pierce, rd 5 ATL Allegier(1000+ yds), rd 7 KC Pacheco.
These are the ones that stand out to me and all drafted 4th rd and later. That's legitimately 8 guys that every team wishes they had on their roster. Absolutely no reason to pay a RB $30 million over the next 2 years at his age.
I have really enjoyed Cook and we got his best with Zim. Just not a roster position I drop that kind of loot on !

[Husker Vike]

If we get rid of Cook and go with drafting a later round RB, we better use the savings to bolster our offensive line. I agree that Cook has probably lost a step , but trying to find a late round RB with his burst is going to be difficult.

[IIsweet]

If we get rid of Cook and go with drafting a later round RB, we better use the savings to bolster our offensive line. I agree that Cook has probably lost a step, but trying to find a late round RB with his burst is going to be difficult.

Option #1 Ty Chandler
Option #2 Kene Nwangwu
They were really excited about Chandler, if I remember correctly. The thought was that he was the heir apparent. That time may be now?

[VikingLord]

If we get rid of Cook and go with drafting a later round RB, we better use the savings to bolster our offensive line. I agree that Cook has probably lost a step , but trying to find a late round RB with his burst is going to be difficult.

If Bijan Robinson is there at #23 they should take him. He's a generational talent at RB and while he doesn't fit a need per se, he's the kind of difference-maker you need to use a draft to acquire.

Put another way, when the Vikings took Moss they didn't need a WR per se, but all teams need any generational difference-makers they can find in any given draft regardless of their current objective needs overall. Robinson gives the team that drafts him an effective runner and receiver who also can block and play every down, and not only play every down, but be a guy the defense has to account for on every down due to the multiple ways he can hurt them.

Getting Bijan would also mean the Vikings can ship both Cook and Mattison without losing any production at the RB position, and possibly getting a large net gain there.

I think the Vikings need DL, OL, LB, DB and even QB a lot more than they need RB in this upcoming draft, but they won't get a more impactful or better sure thing player than Robinson at #23. I'll be praying he somehow slips to them there, and then praying that KAM proves to be more astute with his assessment of the talent available to him where he's picking than he did in his first draft when he shipped #12 for a song and a candy bar.

[IIsweet]

If we get rid of Cook and go with drafting a later round RB, we better use the savings to bolster our offensive line. I agree that Cook has probably lost a step , but trying to find a late round RB with his burst is going to be difficult.

If Bijan Robinson is there at #23 they should take him. He's a generational talent at RB and while he doesn't fit a need per se, he's the kind of difference-maker you need to use a draft to acquire.

Put another way, when the Vikings took Moss they didn't need a WR per se, but all teams need any generational difference-makers they can find in any given draft regardless of their current objective needs overall. Robinson gives the team that drafts him an effective runner and receiver who also can block and play every down, and not only play every down, but be a guy the defense has to account for on every down due to the multiple ways he can hurt them.

Getting Bijan would also mean the Vikings can ship both Cook and Mattison without losing any production at the RB position, and possibly getting a large net gain there.

I think the Vikings need DL, OL, LB, DB and even QB a lot more than they need RB in this upcoming draft, but they won't get a more impactful or better sure thing player than Robinson at #23. I'll be praying he somehow slips to them there, and then praying that KAM proves to be more astute with his assessment of the talent available to him where he's picking than he did in his first draft when he shipped #12 for a song and a candy bar.

That is a very good take, but I disagree. Bijan Robinson at 6' 220 is a superstar, pending his team. I just do not think we need to invest that 1st rd pick. The kid from UCLA is the exact same size and faster. There are quite a few of those. I think it is harder to get the elite OL and DL correct than it is the RB. However, give me BPA every time ! If it's Bijon... then so be it

[MossCarterJefferson]

In his first start against the Bears this season he didn't even complete 50% of his passes. No thanks you can find that anywhere. He will be a cheap backup/change of pace QB for them. The 49ers missed on that deal but they made up for it with Purdy. If there's a GM of the year it has to be the 49er person. Purdy saved the season for them.

Lol, listen to yourself. "in his first start he didn't even complete 50% of his passes", so no thanks? The guy was playing in a downpour and we all should know by now that the first game of the season rarely tells us how the entire season will go. Not to mention you have QBs like Allen and Hurts who took almost two whole seasons to become great passers, and you are writing him off after one game?

I can almost guarantee I have watched more of Trey Lance than anyone else on here and can tell you he has all the tools you want out of a modern NFL QB. He has the arm, he has the mobility, he has the size and he has the decision making to be a great QB, which is why the "GM of the year" traded multiple 1sts for the opportunity to draft him.

It doesn't matter though, because I do not believe he will be available for a trade next season. My guess is that they keep him around and as much as I want Purdy to be great, his game reminds me a bit too much of Nick Foles.

I would take that, Foles did win a Superbowl....

[StumpHunter]

...as much as I want Purdy to be great, his game reminds me a bit too much of Nick Foles.

I don't know why you want him to be great

Only because he played at Iowa State.

[StumpHunter]

How so? After he is cut this off season, he will have made about 8 million per year over his 3 seasons here, while having asignificantly higher impact on his offense than most RBs out there and who more importantly, remained more healthy than most RBs out there.

Cook's contract was actually a good signing, and this is coming from one of Rick's biggest detractors.

I'm not talking about the past. I'm talking about the future. His contract wasn't just for the past 3 seasons, 2 of which were actually part of his previous contract. It also extends the next two years into the future.

Cook, if kept on this contract, will cost the Vikings $30 million to the cap in 2023 and 2024. Only AFTER 2024 is Cook's contract completely devoid of dead money. THAT is why his contract is so bad. For his seasons 8 and 9, a running back will cost $30 million to the cap, with total dead cap of nearly $10 million. Please explain to me how that is a good contract ... especially given the success of late-round picks such as Elijah Mitchell.

You are too hung up on those final years when they were probably never going to get paid out. In the end he will be cut this off season and walk away making 8 million per year on his extension, which includes the dead cap hit the Vikings will pay out this year.

And for the record, Dalvin Cook was not that good this year. He ranked LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards over expected. Last. He broke two long runs and one long screen pass. He had just 5 rushes of at least 20 yards.

Being last in that stat will happen when it is a stat based partially on run blocking grade and the Vikings are incorrectly graded out as the 3rd best run blocking team in the NFL. Better than SF and Philly according to PFF, but not anyone with a working pair of eyes. His backup averaged .6 yards per attempt fewer running behind that same elite run blocking Oline and the offense stalled nearly every time he was off the field. He was still effective as a runner in his final season with the Vikings.

Overthecap put his valuation at $8.5 million ... his cap hit was $12 million.

But his AAV is only going to end up being 8 million per year.

It's a bad contract. It's one of the worst contracts for a running back I've ever seen. Half of the $60 million total comes in 2023 and 2024, when he is clearly past his prime. I will be stunned if they don't move off him, eat the dead cap, and use the cap savings to sign players they actually need.

Which is what makes it a good contract, because the Vikings don't have to pay those final two years. They got his best years and can move on now. Just like was intended when it was originally written up.

[VikingLord]

That is a very good take, but I disagree. Bijan Robinson at 6' 220 is a superstar, pending his team. I just do not think we need to invest that 1st rd pick. The kid from UCLA is the exact same size and faster. There are quite a few of those. I think it is harder to get the elite OL and DL correct than it is the RB. However, give me BPA every time ! If it's Bijon... then so be it

There is nobody from UCLA that is as good, or going to be as good perennially, as Bijan Robinson, nor are there quite a few of those (assuming you are talking about running backs) that are anywhere close to what he brings to the table. That attitude is the only reason why a talent like Robinson could even ever fall to where the Vikings pick in the first round IMHO, and I'm actually counting on that as the reason why the Vikings could even have a shot at drafting him there.

Speaking of it being harder to get the elite OL or DL, there is no scenario where an elite OL or DL prospect makes it to #23 this year. Those guys will be gone long before the Vikings step to the podium in the first round along with the elite QB and CB prospects. Although this is a very deep CB class and if there is a year where a team might still snag a legit CB prospect as late as the 3rd round, this might be the year.

Suffice it to say, if the stars align and the draft offers a generational talent at any position, a good GM will recognize that gift from the football gods and eagerly thank them for providing it. I don't know if that is going to happen as I doubt 22 other GMs will be dumb enough to pass on a player like that, but stranger things have happened. Here's hoping the general impression you have of both Robinson specifically and the RB position generally carry the day and KAM is smart enough and contrarian enough to take advantage of it.

[IIsweet]

That is a very good take, but I disagree. Bijan Robinson at 6' 220 is a superstar, pending his team. I just do not think we need to invest that 1st rd pick. The kid from UCLA is the exact same size and faster. There are quite a few of those. I think it is harder to get the elite OL and DL correct than it is the RB. However, give me BPA every time ! If it's Bijon... then so be it

There is nobody from UCLA that is as good, or going to be as good perennially, as Bijan Robinson, nor are there quite a few of those (assuming you are talking about running backs) that are anywhere close to what he brings to the table. That attitude is the only reason why a talent like Robinson could even ever fall to where the Vikings pick in the first round IMHO, and I'm actually counting on that as the reason why the Vikings could even have a shot at drafting him there.

Speaking of it being harder to get the elite OL or DL, there is no scenario where an elite OL or DL prospect makes it to #23 this year. Those guys will be gone long before the Vikings step to the podium in the first round along with the elite QB and CB prospects. Although this is a very deep CB class and if there is a year where a team might still snag a legit CB prospect as late as the 3rd round, this might be the year.

Suffice it to say, if the stars align and the draft offers a generational talent at any position, a good GM will recognize that gift from the football gods and eagerly thank them for providing it. I don't know if that is going to happen as I doubt 22 other GMs will be dumb enough to pass on a player like that, but stranger things have happened. Here's hoping the general impression you have of both Robinson specifically and the RB position generally carry the day and KAM is smart enough and contrarian enough to take advantage of it.

Have to say, that I have mulled this idea over since yesterday. It would be awesome to have the next AD, but If Bijon is there, why? Why did 22 other teams pass on a generational talent? If you watch the playoffs, you have to have that guy that can melt a clock, whether it is a RB or an accurate QB throwing in well-designed plays. I am a BPA guy, however, we are in a rebuilding phase and have so many needs and positions to fill. I just don't see why we get this incredible RB if we cannot block? As much as it would be a luxury, I feel that we HAVE TO address the Guard and Center positions. We HAVE TO get disruptive IDL. If we are waiting for those positions, then we are not getting better. If we can block, then even Kapp or PHP can run for 1000 yards

[Texas Vike]

There is nobody from UCLA that is as good, or going to be as good perennially, as Bijan Robinson, nor are there quite a few of those (assuming you are talking about running backs) that are anywhere close to what he brings to the table. That attitude is the only reason why a talent like Robinson could even ever fall to where the Vikings pick in the first round IMHO, and I'm actually counting on that as the reason why the Vikings could even have a shot at drafting him there.

Speaking of it being harder to get the elite OL or DL, there is no scenario where an elite OL or DL prospect makes it to #23 this year. Those guys will be gone long before the Vikings step to the podium in the first round along with the elite QB and CB prospects. Although this is a very deep CB class and if there is a year where a team might still snag a legit CB prospect as late as the 3rd round, this might be the year.

Suffice it to say, if the stars align and the draft offers a generational talent at any position, a good GM will recognize that gift from the football gods and eagerly thank them for providing it. I don't know if that is going to happen as I doubt 22 other GMs will be dumb enough to pass on a player like that, but stranger things have happened. Here's hoping the general impression you have of both Robinson specifically and the RB position generally carry the day and KAM is smart enough and contrarian enough to take advantage of it.

Have to say, that I have mulled this idea over since yesterday. It would be awesome to have the next AD, but If Bijon is there, why? Why did 22 other teams pass on a generational talent? If you watch the playoffs, you have to have that guy that can melt a clock, whether it is a RB or an accurate QB throwing in well-designed plays. I am a BPA guy, however, we are in a rebuilding phase and have so many needs and positions to fill. I just don't see why we get this incredible RB if we cannot block? As much as it would be a luxury, I feel that we HAVE TO address the Guard and Center positions. We HAVE TO get disruptive IDL. If we are waiting for those positions, then we are not getting better. If we can block, then even Kapp or PHP can run for 1000 yards

Completely agree. I'm a Longhorn and LOVE Bijan, but in the history of 13 win teams in the NFL, we are probably the one with the most holes ever. Give me the immovable center Torrence from Florida. With some beef and power in our IOL, we would improve this offense immediately. Bradbury was the kind of center that matched what the Vikings wanted to do offensively under Zimmer: run Dalvin with an outside zone scheme, for which athletic and mobile lineman were a good match. KOC wants to pass more and Kirk is a statue who can pick a D apart when given time. We need to fortify the interior.

Furthermore, we just aren't going to be the type of offense that features a bell cow RB, which is what Bijan offers you. I could see Jahmyr Gibbs being a better fit for KOC's offense due to his pass catching abilities. But honestly, Chandler may be the answer or a late day pick this year. RB just isn't what we need.