Donatel needs the axe

[IIsweet]

To start, I did not see a single snap of the game.
Honestly, I didn't have much confidence in this game at all, especially when I heard Harrison was out. With multiple long touchdowns, I assume that the safeties were not in the right place or the calls were not made correctly.
We are still 10-3. We need 1 win or a Detroit loss to clinch the division. I expect us to win next week against the Colts. At this point, will be the # 2 or 3 seed behind Philadelphia and possibly SF. Honestly, we could play the Giants in the playoffs or the Commanders or Seahawks or the Lions could even sneak in !!! I feel good about 3 of those games. The following round, not so much.
To me, we HAVE to get these backups up to speed.

I envision a massive turnover after the season. Eliminating aging veterans, or resigning them to lesser contracts, and making a youth movement. I can see us without defensive players Z Smith, EK, Hicks, Hit Man, trade D Hunter. Unless we do in fact dismiss Donatell and they bring in a new DC who wants a 4-3, or a 3-3-5, or a 4-2-5

[Cliff]

I don't think it's coincidence that Smith wasn't on the field and the DBs kept being out of position and getting burned deep. I think it's obvious why the Vikings drafted another safety now. Boy is it ever weak behind Smith.

I'm willing to give Donatel to the end of the season to see what happens. The defense has played "bend don't break" really well for the most part and made key stands and takeaways to close out games. They have also been broken to pieces, but in the end the defense is part of a team that is 10-3. That's impossible with a completely terrible defense.

[VikingLord]

With multiple long touchdowns, I assume that the safeties were not in the right place or the calls were not made correctly.

On the first, Cam Bynum was plenty deep and in the right spot, but for whatever reason he stared at a middle crossing route that was already covered by Peterson while another Lions receiver ran a simple deep post literally right past him. It was like Bynum didn't see that receiver. He was visually locked on to the crossing route. I have watched that highlight a couple of times now and I still don't know what Bynum was doing on that play. That is not how a safety should ever play unless he believes someone is in man coverage on the deep post. Maybe it was a miscommunication on the coverage, but if Bynum wasn't responsible for that route I don't see anyone else on the field that would have been.

The second deep strike appeared to be a scheme issue. Pre-snap, Metellus dropped down into the flat area from his safety position on the side where the pass went, leaving Dantzler alone on that side of the field. Pre-snap, though, Dantzler was 10+ yards deep, so deep coverage shouldn't have been a problem. Goff saw the pre-snap shift by Metellus, so at the snap he just looked at that side of the field. The receiver got off the line without anyone impeding him, took a stutter towards the sideline about when he reached Dantzler, who hadn't moved much, if at all, and then bolted right past him down the sideline. Dantzler, despite being so deep pre-snap, wasn't able to flip his hips quickly enough and ended up trailing the receiver. Goff, who had no pressure on the play, was able to then loft up a perfectly placed ball that Dantzler had zero chance of making a play on. Dantzler should probably have just interfered once he was beaten, but he didn't, and the most he was able to do was tag the trailing foot of the receiver enough to make him lose his balance. He still had enough momentum to carry him into the endzone for the second deep score.

Metellus ended up in the flat with literally no Lions receiver anywhere near him doing nothing. He didn't end up blitzing, didn't fall back into coverage, didn't affect the play at all. I've seen the Vikings drop the safeties down into the flat multiple times, apparently to cover a back or TE who might release into the flat as a safety valve, or maybe to encourage the QB to stay in the pocket, but moving him down pre-snap like that makes it too easy for the QB to read the field. If he's going to come down, come down post-snap or better yet, come down if there is a reason to come down (like a back moving off to that side or a TE releasing there).

And that, in my opinion, is the overall problem with the way the Vikings play pass defense. Whatever they show pre-snap is easy to recognize by opposing QBs and receivers and apparently not easy for the Vikings to change. There are so many simple, uncontested catches by wide open receivers against multiple different offenses that one has to believe the Vikings are just showing their cards pre-snap and unable or unwilling to throw in wrinkles that might take advantage of that familiarity. It's just way too easy for opposing passing games.

If Donatell has some master plan to start switching things up or suddenly getting more aggressive in the secondary, now is the time to implement that. He can't afford yet another embarrassing performance by his secondary against the Colts.

[chicagopurple]

The defense has big issues. Its not just injuries, Yes Smith was missing, but he and our other big names are getting old in football years and have lost a step or two. We will need some changes and someone capable of coaching them. NO room for nostalgia here, its always smarter to trade an older guy when you can still get something for them.

Also, we have no running game. Zero. I feel like this goes back to our anemic OL. Having NO running threat must makes life harder for the QB, but overall, I cannot complain about Cousins. He is doing his job despite having no protection and no running game. I have never been a big supporter of Cousins but he has finally turned a corner it seems. Sadly, its ownerships job to make sure he has a supporting cast and it seems they are continuing to drop the ball regarding OL, defensive players/coaching.

[IIsweet]

I think a lot of people also need to pump the breaks on something. We have a 1st year HC and a new DC.
This is still their 1st year with these players.
I get it, they have been coaching for years and Donatell has been a DC before.
He, Donatell, inherited this aging group of players and the slow secondary. I am not impressed with the lack of improvement on the defensive side of the ball, but that's not entirely on Donatell. The aging players are getting tired and slowing down as the season progresses and the bodies continue to take a beating. This game definitely takes a toll on these guys. I guarantee that they have a lot of nagging injuries and soreness that is not reported that they just play thru. The new kids drafted have had unfortunate seasons. Cine, Booth, and Evans have all been banged up or on IR. This hurts the secondary team speed, and length, but could be more promising for '23 if they can be healthy.
As for KOC, it is his 1st season EVER as a HC and he is calling plays. As with nearly every person on the planet, there is a learning curve, no matter how prepared and dynamic one is. Year 2 will be much better, no doubt and so on. Problem is... we are 10-3 and the expectations have been set so high with all of the wins ! These guys have done an incredible job with the old regimes roster.
It is a competitive Rebuild and they have exceeded expectations. I just hope that we are healthy in the playoffs. Once the division is clinched, I would focus on resting the aging guys and get the young bucks as much game tape and experience as possible

[VikingLord]

On the 2-versus-1 extra points attempt, while I understand KOC wanted to win the game, IIRC, the Vikings would win the division with a win or a tie.

So strictly-speaking, there was no need to win the game outright - the Vikings just needed to not lose it. A tie would have been enough.

So play for the tie. Take the least risky path to get the result you need, especially on the road. Going for 2, like handing off to Cook late in the 1st half so you have him throw a pass to your TE instead of running a play action run with Cook and having your QB throw the exact same pass to the TE, was more risk than KOC needed to achieve the result he wanted.

As I've looked more at yesterday's game, it was easily KOC's worst performance as offensive coordinator so far this year. He was way to predictable in his run calls, took way more risks than necessary in some of his other play calls (like going for it on 4th-and-short on his side of the 50 early in a game where the Lions were already playing with a lot of early game emotion in front of their home fans), and did little or nothing to adjust. It was like he was dead set on a certain outcome and the scheme he felt he wanted to achieve that outcome. In short, he coached more like Dan Campbell in the first meeting of these two teams, and I think he paid the price for it.

He's a rookie head coach. Hopefully he understands how he messed up and will fix that going forward. He has a very talented offense to work with, and he can't afford another game where he allows an opposing defense to completely neuter his run game like that.

I'll also add that I understand some will like the aggressive calls more than I did. I'm not saying they're objectively wrong. What I'm saying is, KOC didn't need to win yesterday's game, so playing so aggressively wasn't necessary. There may come a time and a game where a more aggressive approach is needed, and if so, I hope KOC shows he understands that and doesn't have the opposite problem where he calls it too conservatively.

[Crax]

On the 2-versus-1 extra points attempt, while I understand KOC wanted to win the game, IIRC, the Vikings would win the division with a win or a tie.

Wobby was on Twitter saying it was the smart move because league average is like 50% successful and responding "it's just math" to multiple people and that really was irritating me. Different coaches, but same players for the most part, Vikings were 15% last year on 2 pt conversions. Don't tell me "just math" when the team is so far below league average and then you throw it to short to pretty much the slowest receiver you have in Thielen. That conversion + the jump pass were two big mistakes in this game.

I really like Thielen for hist past work, but throwing him short and expecting YAC from him is ridiculous.
JJ is 4th in the NFL for total YAC and averages 5.03 YAC per reception
Hok is 28th and averages 5.17
Cook much smaller sample size but has a 6.79 avg for YAC
AT averages 2.2 YAC.

[VikeFanInEagleLand]

One last thing about the 2 versus 1 point after... I keep hearing people on here saying that by kicking the extra point, they are going for a tie??? This happened in the 3rd quarter. They easily could have 3 or 4 more possessions in the game (as it turned out they only had two more plus getting the ball with a few seconds left) If the defense actually executes the "don't break" part of the "bend but don't break" defense, they could still win 35 - 21. or lets say they just score one more TD and a FG, then they still win 24-21. I don't how kicking the extra point is playing for a tie. Now obviously, the Lions went on to score 13 more points so it wouldn't matter anyway unless there is a 12 point conversion that I don't know about. Maybe it IS a sign how little confidence O'Connell has in the defense at this point. If that's the case, then it's time to make a big change.

[VikeFanInEagleLand]

But then again, going for it on 4th down early in the game when on your own side of the 50 yard line, isn't the type of thing you should be doing if you lack confidence in the defense. KOC called a very confusing game.

[TheCoolerOne]

One last thing about the 2 versus 1 point after... I keep hearing people on here saying that by kicking the extra point, they are going for a tie??? This happened in the 3rd quarter. They easily could have 3 or 4 more possessions in the game (as it turned out they only had two more plus getting the ball with a few seconds left) If the defense actually executes the "don't break" part of the "bend but don't break" defense, they could still win 35 - 21. or lets say they just score one more TD and a FG, then they still win 24-21. I don't how kicking the extra point is playing for a tie. Now obviously, the Lions went on to score 13 more points so it wouldn't matter anyway unless there is a 12 point conversion that I don't know about. Maybe it IS a sign how little confidence O'Connell has in the defense at this point. If that's the case, then it's time to make a big change.

Go for 1, make it, down 7, need a stop and a score to tie, another stop and score to win

Go for 2, make it, down 6, need stop and score to take lead

Go for 2, miss, down 8, need a stop and score, another shot at a 2 to tie

Miss 2 on the second conversion, down 2, you’re back where you would have started needing a second stop and score to win

It’s maximizing opportunity at a time in the game where you won’t get many more possessions.

Two minutes left in the 3rd quarter when the Vikings score. Best case scenario is a turnover or a quick three and out. Even then, you’re probably getting the ball back at the top of the 4th. Either way, if you do get a stop, suddenly (with a successful 2-point try) you are the team with the ball attempting to take the lead.

[J. Kapp 11]

The analytics say to go for two when you're down 8 ... if it's late in the game, and likely you'll only have one more possession.

Smart guys have done a bunch of math to determine the likelihood of winning the game by successfully getting the 2, versus the likelihood of winning the game in overtime if you end up tied after regulation.

Here's the problem with yesterday: The situation with the Vikings came up in the third quarter.

Therefore the scenario isn't applicable. There was a ton of time left in the game to do a lot of things, and the Vikings were likely to have at least 3-4 more possessions, maybe more.

So if KOC used these analytics to go for 2 when he did, I believe he applied them incorrectly and made the wrong call. The problem for me was that the Vikings had just driven the ball the length of the field. They had momentum. By failing to get the 2, he killed that momentum and actually gave it back to Detroit.

I realize "momentum" doesn't really have analytics behind it. But neither did O'Connell in this situation.

[TheCoolerOne]

The analytics say to go for two when you're down 8 ... if it's late in the game, and likely you'll only have one more possession.

Smart guys have done a bunch of math to determine the likelihood of winning the game by successfully getting the 2, versus the likelihood of winning the game in overtime if you end up tied after regulation.

Here's the problem with yesterday: The situation with the Vikings came up in the third quarter.

Therefore the scenario isn't applicable. There was a ton of time left in the game to do a lot of things, and the Vikings were likely to have at least 3-4 more possessions, maybe more.

So if KOC used these analytics to go for 2 when he did, I believe he applied them incorrectly and made the wrong call. The problem for me was that the Vikings had just driven the ball the length of the field. They had momentum. By failing to get the 2, he killed that momentum and actually gave it back to Detroit.

I realize "momentum" doesn't really have analytics behind it. But neither did O'Connell in this situation.

Well, it got late early for the Vikings defense yesterday. That's where the Vikings-centric talk can come into the decision. Based on the way the defense played yesterday, pretty much the only hope of a stop was going to come in the form of a turnover.

Not only that, but as TexasVike mentioned, you suddenly are applying pressure to the opposing team, and in this case Dan Campbell. A guy who coaches a good deal on emotion and what he feels should be done or should happen or wants to happen. Goad that guy make a pressure decision, and he's likely to make the wrong one.

[StanM]

The defense has big issues. Its not just injuries, Yes Smith was missing, but he and our other big names are getting old in football years and have lost a step or two. We will need some changes and someone capable of coaching them. NO room for nostalgia here, its always smarter to trade an older guy when you can still get something for them.

Also, we have no running game. Zero. I feel like this goes back to our anemic OL. Having NO running threat must makes life harder for the QB, but overall, I cannot complain about Cousins. He is doing his job despite having no protection and no running game. I have never been a big supporter of Cousins but he has finally turned a corner it seems. Sadly, its ownerships job to make sure he has a supporting cast and it seems they are continuing to drop the ball regarding OL, defensive players/coaching.

I agree with your assessment on Cousins and they did their best with what was available in cap space. No big name free agents but that isn’t always possible. Unfortunately with the shorter than normal offseason and so many things to patch up it will take a full offseason and I wouldn’t be surprised if the “competitive rebuild” doesn’t take another two seasons. The big contracts, aging veterans and OL and secondary issues were too many positions to upgrade. If we had stuck with Spielman and Zimmer they would be the ones faced with the same situation. We saw how Zimmer liked to “pay his guys” but didn’t see how he and Rick would have dealt with so many coming up on the end of their careers with bloated contracts.

I think they can manage at least one more win to put Detroit away and claim the division. After that I’m not sure what to think. I expected the defense to gel by now but I think what we see is what we have for the rest of this season. The new “culture” will likely mean that no coaches will be leaving during the remainder of this season. If I had to pick (a) we over achieved with what we had or (b) the defense has yet to reach its peak. I regret to say that I’m leaning towards door A.

[VikeFanInEagleLand]

One last thing about the 2 versus 1 point after... I keep hearing people on here saying that by kicking the extra point, they are going for a tie??? This happened in the 3rd quarter. They easily could have 3 or 4 more possessions in the game (as it turned out they only had two more plus getting the ball with a few seconds left) If the defense actually executes the "don't break" part of the "bend but don't break" defense, they could still win 35 - 21. or lets say they just score one more TD and a FG, then they still win 24-21. I don't how kicking the extra point is playing for a tie. Now obviously, the Lions went on to score 13 more points so it wouldn't matter anyway unless there is a 12 point conversion that I don't know about. Maybe it IS a sign how little confidence O'Connell has in the defense at this point. If that's the case, then it's time to make a big change.

Go for 1, make it, down 7, need a stop and a score to tie, another stop and score to win

Go for 2, make it, down 6, need stop and score to take lead

Go for 2, miss, down 8, need a stop and score, another shot at a 2 to tie

Miss 2 on the second conversion, down 2, you’re back where you would have started needing a second stop and score to win

It’s maximizing opportunity at a time in the game where you won’t get many more possessions.

Two minutes left in the 3rd quarter when the Vikings score. Best case scenario is a turnover or a quick three and out. Even then, you’re probably getting the ball back at the top of the 4th. Either way, if you do get a stop, suddenly (with a successful 2-point try) you are the team with the ball attempting to take the lead.

What you need to add to the "Go for 2, make it" is another stop. If they don't stop them again, they still fall behind. So in both of the first two examples, they need to stop them twice. Only in the first example, if they score another TD, they only need another kick to tie instead of a 2 point conversion attempt.

[JJBreaksRecords]

Donatell is doing exactly what Zimmer was doing, when people wanted him gone. Not making adjustments, mainly because is too stubborn. If we want to win another game, he had better learn, and KOC better be talking to him about it. We got exposed Sunday teams will see weaknesses. If Donatell cant adjust during halftime from now on, we may not even be in the playoffs, let alone NFCN winners.