J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:06 pm
I am notoriously bad at predicting game outcomes when it comes to the Vikings. I constantly overrate the Vikes because of my optimism. For example, I predicted a multi-score victory over Dallas. That’s my one attempt for the year.
Here’s what I know about New England.
Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, their passing offense has been one of the worst in the league. They have averaged just 204 yards per game through the air, with just 45 TDs against 37 interceptions. In that time, they’ve averaged 131 yards on the ground and a league-average 4.4 YPC. This year, they’re not as good at running the ball as you may think — they rank 29th in EPA rushing. They’re 24th in EPA passing.
Their defense obviously is very good. They’re first in total EPA, second in sacks, first in opponents’ passer rating, third in INT%, etc., etc. But I don’t really care. This is a team that struggles to score, and to win consistently in the NFL, you have to score. Just as the Vikings were never going to win 15 one-score games, the Patriots can’t win many games scoring 10 points like they did last week.
So here’s what I’ll predict. If the Patriots DON’T have trouble scoring against the Vikings — whose defense has given up 70 points the past two weeks, by the way — then the Vikings are going to lose. If Ed Donatell’s defense can somehow make it difficult for this very below-average offense to score, then the Vikings have a shot. Doesn’t mean they’ll win. But to have a shot, they’ve GOT to hold New England’s bland offense in check.
This … THIS is why I’m not in the prediction business.
The Patriots’ mediocre offense outgained us. Yet we put up 33 and won.
J. Kapp 11 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:06 pm
I am notoriously bad at predicting game outcomes when it comes to the Vikings. I constantly overrate the Vikes because of my optimism. For example, I predicted a multi-score victory over Dallas. That’s my one attempt for the year.
Here’s what I know about New England.
Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, their passing offense has been one of the worst in the league. They have averaged just 204 yards per game through the air, with just 45 TDs against 37 interceptions. In that time, they’ve averaged 131 yards on the ground and a league-average 4.4 YPC. This year, they’re not as good at running the ball as you may think — they rank 29th in EPA rushing. They’re 24th in EPA passing.
Their defense obviously is very good. They’re first in total EPA, second in sacks, first in opponents’ passer rating, third in INT%, etc., etc. But I don’t really care. This is a team that struggles to score, and to win consistently in the NFL, you have to score. Just as the Vikings were never going to win 15 one-score games, the Patriots can’t win many games scoring 10 points like they did last week.
So here’s what I’ll predict. If the Patriots DON’T have trouble scoring against the Vikings — whose defense has given up 70 points the past two weeks, by the way — then the Vikings are going to lose. If Ed Donatell’s defense can somehow make it difficult for this very below-average offense to score, then the Vikings have a shot. Doesn’t mean they’ll win. But to have a shot, they’ve GOT to hold New England’s bland offense in check.
This … THIS is why I’m not in the prediction business.
The Patriots’ mediocre offense outgained us. Yet we put up 33 and won.
I give up.
The prediction business is very hard for NFL games. Not to many bookies go out of business. With Donatells bend but don't break BS scheme we will never hold even a total junk offense to 10 points. This next game coming up the Jets have some stiff at QB. I wouldn't be shocked if the guy threw for 350 yards and they put up 30 points. We put up 33 thanks to the special teams providing a TD. Somehow this team is finding ways to win games. We are doing it with a total team effort and I have no idea how or what's in front. We could return a couple interceptions for TDs against White or he could look like the mad bomber and throw 4 or 5 long TD passes. We couldn't even run the ball effectively against the Pats and if I knew that would happen I would have bet everything on the Pats. The haters claim Cousins sucks with no ground attack. We had 57 yards total rushing on 26 attempts. That's getting stuffed. Some how we won and there's nothing wrong with that. But Donatells soft scheme is painful to watch. More painful when he won't attack the QB. Just let the guy stand there and wait for a guy to clear and step into the throw. That bomb for a TD down the middle is a perfect example of the pain. If you rush the QB that play never happens.
Uff. After losing a long post, I guess I'll try again. Not sure what's up with the site.
My main point was: folks have pointed to NE's measly 3 points generated vs. the Jets until their punt return sealed the game, but that game was played in terrible weather that affected both offenses greatly. If you look at NE's record, you'll see that they have put up decent numbers against good defenses. They aren't an offensive juggernaut, but also not as awful at their previous week's showing.
Belichick is famous for taking away your strength/ making you play left-handed, but he didn't have the ability to do that to JJ. His DL was good enough to keep Dalvin contained, however, and NE essentially said, "if they beat us, it's on Kirk's shoulders in prime time."
This was a HUGE win, allowing us to put the Dallas defeat in the closet and move on. Jets are up next. Similar team to the Pats, honestly. Strong D and strong running game.
Texas Vike wrote: ↑Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:21 am
Uff. After losing a long post, I guess I'll try again. Not sure what's up with the site.
My main point was: folks have pointed to NE's measly 3 points generated vs. the Jets until their punt return sealed the game, but that game was played in terrible weather that affected both offenses greatly. If you look at NE's record, you'll see that they have put up decent numbers against good defenses. They aren't an offensive juggernaut, but also not as awful at their previous week's showing.
Belichick is famous for taking away your strength/ making you play left-handed, but he didn't have the ability to do that to JJ. His DL was good enough to keep Dalvin contained, however, and NE essentially said, "if they beat us, it's on Kirk's shoulders in prime time."
This was a HUGE win, allowing us to put the Dallas defeat in the closet and move on. Jets are up next. Similar team to the Pats, honestly. Strong D and strong running game.
The Pats have scored on O and they also have been shut down. It's seems like an all or nothing deal and it changes as they cycle through the schedule. They won some games with a 7th round rookie playing QB. The guy isn't some runner who was rushing for 100+ yards he needed to put it up. That tells me they are a solid team. But against us they were missing 2 starting OL players. That's a tremendous blow for any team and IMO our D should have held them down. They finally started to get after the QB the finale couple drives and that saved the win. I agree with your Jets take. This isn't the same old Jets and they will punch you in the mouth. Their problem is nothing at QB. It's hard to beat any team like that. Donatell needs to come out and get after this White guy right of the bat. Get him rattled. We have 2 very good pass rushers so send them. Don't wait around.
It was nice for my guts to be wrong about this one. Kirk had some mistakes but it's not exactly a perfect science. He did well when it counted most.
Kirk seems to audible a lot more this season. I wonder if it's a product of the old staff not wanting him to change or there simply not being a lot of flexibility in the old systems? Possibly just a lot more "options" in this offense.
This was an important win. Coming back from that Dallas beating against a pretty strong team on a short week in prime time and they were ready. That's the kind of mental toughness that will be necessary in the playoffs.
Texas Vike wrote: ↑Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:21 am
Uff. After losing a long post, I guess I'll try again. Not sure what's up with the site.
Getting an error or anything? I've got a plugin that should periodically save your writing before you post so if you get booted like that you shouldn't have to start from the beginning.
Texas Vike wrote: ↑Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:21 am
Uff. After losing a long post, I guess I'll try again. Not sure what's up with the site.
Getting an error or anything? I've got a plugin that should periodically save your writing before you post so if you get booted like that you shouldn't have to start from the beginning.
Not sure, Cliff. I typed out a brilliant essay (sarcasm) and hit submit... went to take car of something and came back to an error message of some sort. It was probably around 7am?
