I had no idea Cousin's under-center stats were so much better than his shotgun stats.
Makes you wonder what the offensive coaches were thinking last year. Maybe they just thought the OL couldn't hold up and figured Cousins had a better chance starting from the shotgun even if his career numbers to that point indicated the shotgun was weaker for him.
I am a little concerned about Elflein though. Man, I sure hope his performance last year was affected by injury because I'd have to agree with the writer just based on the eye test. He really struggled. The rest of the OL looks improved, although there are still some question marks, but Pat is easily the biggest question mark heading into this season.
As the writer notes, the zone blocking scheme can compensate somewhat for weak individual play at guard as the guards are rarely asked to physically dominate, but it sure would be nice to see all five OL play consistently competently this season.
I didn't read the article (maybe I should) but usually in shotgun, your'e in 2nd and long or 3rd and long and in obvious passing situations. Under center, you have the element of surprise (run, pass or PA). In other words, it's just a stat that means little. I'm guessing his QB rating is very high on 1st and short, 2nd and short too. Now if his ratings are high when he's under center on 2nd and 3rd and long, then maybe there's something there.
I think you hit the nail on the head.
Kirk Cousins 2015-2018:
1st and 2nd down passer rating: 100
3rd and short (0-5 yards): 106
3rd and long: 86
808 is correct - this is a classic confusion of correlation and causation
Just like rushes per game correlating with wins. If a team has a big lead they are going to run the ball more. Also if the ground game is working this will more likely lead to additional rushes and if the ground game is working it increases chances of winning
But I hate when announcers make overly simplistic statements about this correlation- as though blindly running the ball 30 times will guarantee a win
I didn't have quite the same take away of causation vs. correlation on the shotgun stats although I can understand why you might reach that conclusion. DeFelippo was throwing a ton even in games that were tight. SEA and NE both come to mind. In those games the defense did a great job, so they were not forced to pass. They did it anyways. For added salt, the Buffalo game was called similarly, but in that one the protection self destructed early. Again though, why call a bunch of passes early if you know your protection is going to face a challenge up front. Especially when you've got two proven RBs? All of this is basically case in point as to why JDF was a major source of our offensive woes last year.
Kubiak has brought not just his pedigree but also his long time assistants. IMO this bodes well for our protection and rushing attack. It should also bode well for Kirk Cousins. The questions are if we can stay healthy and if the rosters can execute the new scheme well. I think they can.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi
808vikingsfan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:27 am
I didn't read the article (maybe I should) but usually in shotgun, your'e in 2nd and long or 3rd and long and in obvious passing situations. Under center, you have the element of surprise (run, pass or PA). In other words, it's just a stat that means little. I'm guessing his QB rating is very high on 1st and short, 2nd and short too. Now if his ratings are high when he's under center on 2nd and 3rd and long, then maybe there's something there.
This is the section of the article that discusses this topic:
Another major element of Kubiak’s offensive scheme is the play-action pass from under-center. Peyton Manning excepted, Kubiak has always ran his offense primarily (around 70% or so) from under-center.
That’s good news for Kirk Cousins, who’s career passer rating is 19 points higher from under-center than from shotgun (109.1 vs. 90.1). His sack rate under-center is lower - 4.8% vs. 5.6% in shotgun, his interception rate is also lower- 1.4% vs. 2.8% in shotgun. His adjusted yards per attempt is also higher under-center than shotgun (9.44 vs. 6.77).
It should also be noted that all of Cousins’ sack-fumbles last season, and all but one in his career, have come in shotgun formation.
Last year Cousins operated from the shotgun on 78% of his passing attempts. That will likely decrease by over 50% this season, given the historical average for Kubiak’s quarterbacks in Texas and Baltimore.
So two things stood out for me there:
1 - Kubiak's scheme has the QB operating from under center on a higher percentage of plays. Now, that could be because Kubiak's offenses are more effective on 1st and 2nd downs and create fewer obvious passing situations. Hard to say without more information as you point out. I only mention it because of that last part where Cousins was in the shotgun on 78% of his passing attempts. There isn't any breakdown there regarding down, though, but the implication is that Kubiak's scheme has the QB under center more even in obvious passing situations, and Cousins is historically more effective as a passer when he's under center, presumably independent of the down-distance situation.
2 - The sack-fumble detail is significant regardless. Cousins lost a lot of fumbles last year. It stands to reason (or at least hope) that if he rarely has that problem when he's under center pre-snap, that should reduce this in 2019. It was a pretty big problem for the offense last year.
808vikingsfan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:27 am
I didn't read the article (maybe I should) but usually in shotgun, your'e in 2nd and long or 3rd and long and in obvious passing situations. Under center, you have the element of surprise (run, pass or PA). In other words, it's just a stat that means little. I'm guessing his QB rating is very high on 1st and short, 2nd and short too. Now if his ratings are high when he's under center on 2nd and 3rd and long, then maybe there's something there.
This is the section of the article that discusses this topic:
Another major element of Kubiak’s offensive scheme is the play-action pass from under-center. Peyton Manning excepted, Kubiak has always ran his offense primarily (around 70% or so) from under-center.
That’s good news for Kirk Cousins, who’s career passer rating is 19 points higher from under-center than from shotgun (109.1 vs. 90.1). His sack rate under-center is lower - 4.8% vs. 5.6% in shotgun, his interception rate is also lower- 1.4% vs. 2.8% in shotgun. His adjusted yards per attempt is also higher under-center than shotgun (9.44 vs. 6.77).
It should also be noted that all of Cousins’ sack-fumbles last season, and all but one in his career, have come in shotgun formation.
Last year Cousins operated from the shotgun on 78% of his passing attempts. That will likely decrease by over 50% this season, given the historical average for Kubiak’s quarterbacks in Texas and Baltimore.
So two things stood out for me there:
1 - Kubiak's scheme has the QB operating from under center on a higher percentage of plays. Now, that could be because Kubiak's offenses are more effective on 1st and 2nd downs and create fewer obvious passing situations. Hard to say without more information as you point out. I only mention it because of that last part where Cousins was in the shotgun on 78% of his passing attempts. There isn't any breakdown there regarding down, though, but the implication is that Kubiak's scheme has the QB under center more even in obvious passing situations, and Cousins is historically more effective as a passer when he's under center, presumably independent of the down-distance situation.
2 - The sack-fumble detail is significant regardless. Cousins lost a lot of fumbles last year. It stands to reason (or at least hope) that if he rarely has that problem when he's under center pre-snap, that should reduce this in 2019. It was a pretty big problem for the offense last year.
I think Kubiak does run more from under center, but 808's point is that Cousins success from under center has to do with down and distance more than where he takes the snap from. Your point 2 certainly indicates that, as I can't see any logical reason Cousins would fumble more because of where he snaps the ball from, but I can see some very logical reasons he would fumble more when trying to pick up more yards on 2nd or 3rd and 10. More of a pass rush from defenders not worrying about defending the run, holding the ball longer, etc.
StumpHunter wrote: ↑Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:47 am
I think Kubiak does run more from under center, but 808's point is that Cousins success from under center has to do with down and distance more than where he takes the snap from. Your point 2 certainly indicates that, as I can't see any logical reason Cousins would fumble more because of where he snaps the ball from, but I can see some very logical reasons he would fumble more when trying to pick up more yards on 2nd or 3rd and 10. More of a pass rush from defenders not worrying about defending the run, holding the ball longer, etc.
Maybe it has more to do with how the defense has to play when the QB takes the ball from under center?
I really don't know, and I think you and 808 are probably right, but I got the impression from reading the article that Kubiak is less inclined to use the shotgun formation regardless of down and distance, and that Cousins is less likely to have a negative play if he starts under center.
This seems like the best thread for the annual, "Why Your Team Sucks 2019".
Here's a teaser:
Bradbury’s promise is already undermined by the fact that his taint appears to be the source of the River Nile:
Another:
How does this team have 9,000 corners and yet no corners all at once? Put my balls in a Vitamix. Bene’ Benwikere is gonna start 14 games this year. I already know it
