Why did Kirk Cousins not play like Tom Brady?

[Bowhunting Viking]

Just give him a chance. As really Kirk is not ever going to be a Tom Brady. He is his own man. Just give him more of a O.L. to protect him and a go to guy like Xavier Rhodes.

Even Tom Bradys isn't the Tom Brady everyone thinks he is. Neither is Aaron Rodgers.

Amen to the Rodgers part. Was just talking thru PM with another member here about how sick and tired we both are of the Pukers being hailed just because of the Almighty Erin. Yes the guy is talented but he's not the QB the media makes him out to be anymore.

[Raptorman]

Even Tom Bradys isn't the Tom Brady everyone thinks he is. Neither is Aaron Rodgers.

Amen to the Rodgers part. Was just talking thru PM with another member here about how sick and tired we both are of the Pukers being hailed just because of the Almighty Erin. Yes the guy is talented but he's not the QB the media makes him out to be anymore.

I was just working on some Numbers for Rodgers.

Career.

32-40-1 against teams that ended the season with a winning record. 11 of those have been on the road. The rest at home.
68-20 against teams with a record of .500 or lower.
3 wins on the road in the last 6 years against teams with winning records.

And they claim Cousins is overpaid.

It would not surprise me if Brady's numbers came up something like this. He will take longer to figure out.

[StumpHunter]

Amen to the Rodgers part. Was just talking thru PM with another member here about how sick and tired we both are of the Pukers being hailed just because of the Almighty Erin. Yes the guy is talented but he's not the QB the media makes him out to be anymore.

I was just working on some Numbers for Rodgers.

Career.

32-40-1 against teams that ended the season with a winning record. 11 of those have been on the road. The rest at home.
68-20 against teams with a record of .500 or lower.
3 wins on the road in the last 6 years against teams with winning records.

And they claim Cousins is overpaid.

It would not surprise me if Brady's numbers came up something like this. He will take longer to figure out.

32 - 40 versus 4 - 24...

[Raptorman]

I was just working on some Numbers for Rodgers.

Career.

32-40-1 against teams that ended the season with a winning record. 11 of those have been on the road. The rest at home.
68-20 against teams with a record of .500 or lower.
3 wins on the road in the last 6 years against teams with winning records.

And they claim Cousins is overpaid.

It would not surprise me if Brady's numbers came up something like this. He will take longer to figure out.

32 - 40 versus 4 - 24...

Here's a little secret. Those 32 games Rodgers won against winning teams. The average score of the Packers opponents, 16.7 ppg. And the 40 that he lost. The average score of their opponents was................29.7.

Just for you, I'll do Cousins next.

[Raptorman]

I was just working on some Numbers for Rodgers.

Career.

32-40-1 against teams that ended the season with a winning record. 11 of those have been on the road. The rest at home.
68-20 against teams with a record of .500 or lower.
3 wins on the road in the last 6 years against teams with winning records.

And they claim Cousins is overpaid.

It would not surprise me if Brady's numbers came up something like this. He will take longer to figure out.

32 - 40 versus 4 - 24...

Just for you. First, Cousins is 5-26 against teams with a winning record.

The average score of winning teams he beat, 21.2. The average score of winning teams he lost to. 30.2 And yes it does make a difference. If your defense can hold the other team to under 19 ppg you have roughly an 80% chance of winning.

And this shows up again in the teams at .500 and below Cousins played.

Teams below .500 he beat. The average score of the other teams. 17.1 Average score of the teams he lost too. 25.8.

So, people want to continue to blame a QB for not winning games. But it is a team game. These game averages for wins and losses can be seen in the win and lost record of every QB in the NFL. And in reality, it doesn't matter if you are playing a winning team or losing team. What matters the most is how many points your defense gives up.

Tom Brady. The avearge score of opponents when he wins. 16.0 ppg. The average score of opponents when he losses. 27.7 Pick any QB, and it will show pretty much the same thing.

Browns 2018. 7-8-1. In their 7 wins. 16.5 ppg given up. In their loses. 30.7

Now, does your QB have an effect on that? Well yes, he does. But the QB is only part of the team. How he plays matters. But how the defense plays matters just as much. NO QB will win 16 games for you. He might pull one or two out of a hat during the year. But that's it.

[StumpHunter]

32 - 40 versus 4 - 24...

Just for you. First, Cousins is 5-26 against teams with a winning record.

The average score of winning teams he beat, 21.2. The average score of winning teams he lost to. 30.2 And yes it does make a difference. If your defense can hold the other team to under 19 ppg you have roughly an 80% chance of winning.

And this shows up again in the teams at .500 and below Cousins played.

Teams below .500 he beat. The average score of the other teams. 17.1 Average score of the teams he lost too. 25.8.

So, people want to continue to blame a QB for not winning games. But it is a team game. These game averages for wins and losses can be seen in the win and lost record of every QB in the NFL. And in reality, it doesn't matter if you are playing a winning team or losing team. What matters the most is how many points your defense gives up.

Tom Brady. The avearge score of opponents when he wins. 16.0 ppg. The average score of opponents when he losses. 27.7 Pick any QB, and it will show pretty much the same thing.

Browns 2018. 7-8-1. In their 7 wins. 16.5 ppg given up. In their loses. 30.7

Now, does your QB have an effect on that? Well yes, he does. But the QB is only part of the team. How he plays matters. But how the defense plays matters just as much. NO QB will win 16 games for you. He might pull one or two out of a hat during the year. But that's it.

I agree with you for the most part. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, as good as they are, are never going to take a horrible team to the SB.

I have this theory about Andy Dalton that is relevant to this conversation. In my opinion, he is the epitome of a QB in the regular season who doesn't get his team beat, but also never wins his teams games. So I created something called the Dalton scale, where you judge a QB based on what the record of their team would be if Andy Dalton replaced them at QB. It works better for .500 teams, than really bad teams like the Cardinals, or really good teams like the Rams, because there is too much room for improvement with the Cardinals, and not enough with the Rams.

So for instance, let's say Dalton replaced Matt Ryan on the Falcons last year. They probably drop to 6-10, 5-11. He goes to Jacksonville and they jump from 5 wins to 8. So Ryan is a +1.5 on the Dalton Scale, while Bortles is a -3. Brady is tricky, because I think Bellicheck could have gotten 10 wins out of Dalton in the regular season. Where Brady makes the difference is the 3 wins in the playoffs. So +4. Rodgers is also tricky this year, since I believe he intentionally lost games to get his coach fired. So +2 this year, but in reality probably more like +4 as well.

One thing you will notice, is that the difference between Brady and Dalton on this scale isn't huge. In large part because like you said, QBs in a 16 game season, the QB is the difference maker in probably 4 of them. It is those 4 though, that mean the difference between a .500 team, and a team going to the playoffs. That is why Stafford is perpetually a .500 QB, while Brady and Rodgers are consistently in the playoffs.

This is just regular season too. In the playoffs, where all teams are very good, the QB's impact becomes even more significant.

[J. Kapp 11]

When this thread first started, I have to admit ... I thought it was a dumb thread.

However, I'm seeing some pretty intelligent posts over the past few pages. And not much trolling or name calling. Pretty cool.

Here are some thoughts I have.

It's actually an interesting comparison because in may ways, Brady and Cousins are similar.

• They both are accurate throwers from a clean pocket.
  They both have above-average arm strength, but not cannons.
  Both were relatively low draft picks who were never thought of as starters, let alone franchise QBs.
  Neither is very mobile (Kirk is actually more mobile than Tom).
  Both are great at executing the called play when things go the way they're supposed to.
  Neither are good at improvising.
  They're both smart and prepared.

So it begs the question: Why is Brady's track record so much better than Cousins'?

I would cite a few important reasons.

• Brady plays for the best coach in the history of the NFL.
  Brady has almost never been on an NFL team with a bad defense.
  Brady can't improvise, but nobody is better at getting his team into the right play and the correct protection.
  Brady makes better decisions under duress.
  Brady had success early in his career, which built incredible confidence.
  Brady seems to have the undefinable "It Factor."

Most of Brady's success comes from Brady himself. No doubt about that. But he has also benefitted from his circumstances. Nobody screamed bloody murder when he replaced Drew Bledsoe. And after he won the Super Bowl, nobody even remembered Bledsoe's name. When Cousins replaced RGIII, people went nuts. His own franchise couldn't wait to get rid of him. As a result, one developed confidence, while the other developed a complex.

No excuses for Cousins. He's still trying to find his way as a franchise quarterback (and may never do it) while Brady has been one for about 18 years. It's just a really interesting comparison.

[fiestavike]

When this thread first started, I have to admit ... I thought it was a dumb thread.

However, I'm seeing some pretty intelligent posts over the past few pages. And not much trolling or name calling. Pretty cool.

Here are some thoughts I have.

It's actually an interesting comparison because in may ways, Brady and Cousins are similar.

• They both are accurate throwers from a clean pocket.
  They both have above-average arm strength, but not cannons.
  Both were relatively low draft picks who were never thought of as starters, let alone franchise QBs.
  Neither is very mobile (Kirk is actually more mobile than Tom).
  Both are great at executing the called play when things go the way they're supposed to.
  Neither are good at improvising.
  They're both smart and prepared.

So it begs the question: Why is Brady's track record so much better than Cousins'?

I would cite a few important reasons.

• Brady plays for the best coach in the history of the NFL.
  Brady has almost never been on an NFL team with a bad defense.
  Brady can't improvise, but nobody is better at getting his team into the right play and the correct protection.
  Brady makes better decisions under duress.
  Brady had success early in his career, which built incredible confidence.
  Brady seems to have the undefinable "It Factor."

Most of Brady's success comes from Brady himself. No doubt about that. But he has also benefitted from his circumstances. Nobody screamed bloody murder when he replaced Drew Bledsoe. And after he won the Super Bowl, nobody even remembered Bledsoe's name. When Cousins replaced RGIII, people went nuts. His own franchise couldn't wait to get rid of him. As a result, one developed confidence, while the other developed a complex.

No excuses for Cousins. He's still trying to find his way as a franchise quarterback (and may never do it) while Brady has been one for about 18 years. It's just a really interesting comparison.

One thing to add, Brady has less mobility, but he navigates the pocket a lot better.

[fiestavike]

Teams below .500 he beat. The average score of the other teams. 17.1 Average score of the teams he lost too. 25.8.

Ok, but there you have to factor in the 5 TDs returned via fumble or interceptions (all coming in losses I believe), which spread over 7 games accounts for 5 ppg. Now you are looking at 17.1 vs 20.8. But this kind of analysis is not necessary.

If we can just remove our ego, desire to be right, and passion for our team from the situation, we should all be able to agree about Cousin's strengths and limitations. They are both obvious. Honestly, I think the statistical analysis (plus and minus) obfuscates the obvious.

[Raptorman]

Teams below .500 he beat. The average score of the other teams. 17.1 Average score of the teams he lost too. 25.8.

Ok, but there you have to factor in the 5 TDs returned via fumble or interceptions (all coming in losses I believe), which spread over 7 games accounts for 5 ppg. Now you are looking at 17.1 vs 20.8. But this kind of analysis is not necessary.

If we can just remove our ego, desire to be right, and passion for our team from the situation, we should all be able to agree about Cousin's strengths and limitations. They are both obvious. Honestly, I think the statistical analysis (plus and minus) obfuscates the obvious.

No, it's not 20.8. 26 losing games. 5 returns for fumbles/interception. (assuming that number is correct) So at most 35 points. 35 divided by 26 equals 1.3. So at most 1.3 ppg. So, 24.5 ppg.

But your number isn't correct, Cousins has 19 Int/Fum returned for TD in his career. So let's say 133 points in all his games. So that's 1.7 ppg is what his Int/Fum cost the teams he played on.

[Pondering Her Percy]

32 - 40 versus 4 - 24...

Just for you. First, Cousins is 5-26 against teams with a winning record.

The average score of winning teams he beat, 21.2. The average score of winning teams he lost to. 30.2 And yes it does make a difference. If your defense can hold the other team to under 19 ppg you have roughly an 80% chance of winning.

And this shows up again in the teams at .500 and below Cousins played.

Teams below .500 he beat. The average score of the other teams. 17.1 Average score of the teams he lost too. 25.8.

So, people want to continue to blame a QB for not winning games. But it is a team game. These game averages for wins and losses can be seen in the win and lost record of every QB in the NFL. And in reality, it doesn't matter if you are playing a winning team or losing team. What matters the most is how many points your defense gives up.

Tom Brady. The avearge score of opponents when he wins. 16.0 ppg. The average score of opponents when he losses. 27.7 Pick any QB, and it will show pretty much the same thing.

Browns 2018. 7-8-1. In their 7 wins. 16.5 ppg given up. In their loses. 30.7

Now, does your QB have an effect on that? Well yes, he does. But the QB is only part of the team. How he plays matters. But how the defense plays matters just as much. NO QB will win 16 games for you. He might pull one or two out of a hat during the year. But that's it.

Post...of...the...offseason! Well said. I have been saying for god knows how long now that it's a team game instead of just saying "Cousins failed, he was a mistake, his record was 8-8, he is overpaid, etc". I'm glad you took the time to find these numbers

I've also said since we've signed Cousins that his defenses in Washington were terrible. But when I said that....someone, tried to defend their defense. Washington might have had a better OL than ours in his early years but they had a MUCH worse defense. Look at some of his road games in 2017.....how he performed against the Eagles (SB champs), NO (top team in NFC), Seattle (tough to play there regardless of how good they are). He beat Seattle but put up 24 and 31 points vs NO and Phi and lost still.

The guy can play. I just truly believe he just hasnt been on the right TEAM yet. Terrible defenses and no running games in Washington and now last year, zero running game and zero OL. I think the main thing is the running game. Having a good run game takes so much pressure off of him and he's NEVER had that. In 4 years of being a starter, the best Cousins' run game has ranked is 19th. Below average or bottom barrel every year.

The guy isnt a miracle worker. He's not elite. Cousins has to do his part but so does the rest of the team. You cant flop on defense, you cant not run the ball and throw the pressure all on him, you cant miss 3 FGs in a game, you cant give up a record number of pressures. Nothing drives me insane more than when guys just say "Cousins sucks he went 8-8". The guy doesnt just walk in and win a SB. He needs help. And got none from his OC and none from his OL. He had his bad games, but Kirk Cousins isnt the one that refuses to run the ball, isnt the one that whiffs on block after block, doesnt miss 3 FGs in a game, etc. If we dont miss that FG vs GB and we are in the playoffs and who knows what happens from there.

I think you'll see a very different team in 2019. One that has balance on offense and a tough defense. That is the recipe for the playoffs and beyond.

[fiestavike]

Ok, but there you have to factor in the 5 TDs returned via fumble or interceptions (all coming in losses I believe), which spread over 7 games accounts for 5 ppg. Now you are looking at 17.1 vs 20.8. But this kind of analysis is not necessary.

If we can just remove our ego, desire to be right, and passion for our team from the situation, we should all be able to agree about Cousin's strengths and limitations. They are both obvious. Honestly, I think the statistical analysis (plus and minus) obfuscates the obvious.

No, it's not 20.8. 26 losing games. 5 returns for fumbles/interception. (assuming that number is correct) So at most 35 points. 35 divided by 26 equals 1.3. So at most 1.3 ppg. So, 24.5 ppg.

But your number isn't correct, Cousins has 19 Int/Fum returned for TD in his career. So let's say 133 points in all his games. So that's 1.7 ppg is what his Int/Fum cost the teams he played on.

I didn't realize that you number was drawing from more than last year. I was drawing only from last year. In any case, I think my main point is only reinforced by this whole discussion.

[Raptorman]

No, it's not 20.8. 26 losing games. 5 returns for fumbles/interception. (assuming that number is correct) So at most 35 points. 35 divided by 26 equals 1.3. So at most 1.3 ppg. So, 24.5 ppg.

But your number isn't correct, Cousins has 19 Int/Fum returned for TD in his career. So let's say 133 points in all his games. So that's 1.7 ppg is what his Int/Fum cost the teams he played on.

I didn't realize that you number was drawing from more than last year. I was drawing only from last year. In any case, I think my main point is only reinforced by this whole discussion.

Yes, it is to a point. The average NFL QB is responsible, between fumbles and interceptions for around 1.5 to 2.0 ppg game for the other team. That is roughly the NFL average. You have some a bit higher, and some a bit lower. But 1.7 ppg on turnovers for a QB is not out of the norm.

[Bowhunting Viking]

Ok , this post is not gospel.. it's not a prophecy and not a 100 % guarantee. What it is is an opinion from a very intelligent, informed, knowledgeable person who truly is in a position to give this opinion because of prior experience involved in this situation. And for me it is a reason to be excited , optimistic and look forward to the upcoming season.
It didn't come from a reporter , a blog writer, an analyst or any type of media member.
This came directly from a retired NFL center who can give this opinion probably better than anyone. He was drafted by the Broncos BY Mike Shanahan and started there as Cutlers QB, played in the Shanahan system, which is basically Kubiaks. When Josh McDaniels took over as head coach, he was then signed by Shanahan again when he became the coach of the Skins , and played there until he retired before last season, still playing under Kyle Shanahan. He was RG3s QB.. wont tell u the majority of the teams opinion about him and the way Snyder doted over him. Then he became Cousins center for all but Kirk's final season.
Anyway, according to him, he feels with the new system, it will in fact be a much better fit for the O lineman we have and the weapons in the skilled positions. He also believes that Cousins , from recent conversations as he still is in touch, is A. Much more comfortable and confident in the system and the Stef as O.C. and Kubiak being there. And B. Is so competitive that he wants to erase all doubt he created last year. Sounds like from what he has heard this offense is already starting to "feel it" and think they have something special brewing.
I hope this is all correct. I know it's just a retired players opinion, but at only a 2nd year removed, and having the experience in the offensive system we will be running, and being Cousins Line general for those 2 seasons, I'm feeling alot better about things than if he would have said Man you guys are in trouble.
As I said.. nothing is certain. But when i hear from him, i tend to listen and believe alot more than some media "expert".
Gives me a ray of hope.

[J. Kapp 11]

Ok , this post is not gospel.. it's not a prophecy and not a 100 % guarantee. What it is is an opinion from a very intelligent, informed, knowledgeable person who truly is in a position to give this opinion because of prior experience involved in this situation. And for me it is a reason to be excited , optimistic and look forward to the upcoming season.
It didn't come from a reporter , a blog writer, an analyst or any type of media member.
This came directly from a retired NFL center who can give this opinion probably better than anyone. He was drafted by the Broncos BY Mike Shanahan and started there as Cutlers QB, played in the Shanahan system, which is basically Kubiaks. When Josh McDaniels took over as head coach, he was then signed by Shanahan again when he became the coach of the Skins , and played there until he retired before last season, still playing under Kyle Shanahan. He was RG3s QB.. wont tell u the majority of the teams opinion about him and the way Snyder doted over him. Then he became Cousins center for all but Kirk's final season.
Anyway, according to him, he feels with the new system, it will in fact be a much better fit for the O lineman we have and the weapons in the skilled positions. He also believes that Cousins , from recent conversations as he still is in touch, is A. Much more comfortable and confident in the system and the Stef as O.C. and Kubiak being there. And B. Is so competitive that he wants to erase all doubt he created last year. Sounds like from what he has heard this offense is already starting to "feel it" and think they have something special brewing.
I hope this is all correct. I know it's just a retired players opinion, but at only a 2nd year removed, and having the experience in the offensive system we will be running, and being Cousins Line general for those 2 seasons, I'm feeling alot better about things than if he would have said Man you guys are in trouble.
As I said.. nothing is certain. But when i hear from him, i tend to listen and believe alot more than some media "expert".
Gives me a ray of hope.

I love hearing this. Thanks for posting.

It's been my belief since the hiring of Kubiak that our offense was going to go a drastically different direction. When you talk about the system being a better fit for the offensive linemen we have, this is something I've been speculating for some time now. When we go and get Josh Kline (experience in zone blocking), Garrett Bradbury, Drew Samia, etc., it's obvious to me that Kubiak and Stefanski are looking for a certain type of lineman with certain athletic qualities. And Kubiak, as I have mentioned endlessly, has a reputation and a proven track record for doing great things with average talent at quarterback. My belief is that Kirk Cousins is above average, so that's a reason for optimism.

To hear an ex-NFL lineman who played for Kubiak say this kind of thing makes me feel a lot better about the upcoming season.