Mark Craig: Defense grades well, Offense will need building

[Mothman]

This is a good read:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 45281.html

As the only NFL team not to beat an opponent that currently has a .500 record or better, the Vikings went 0-6 while scoring 3, 7, 10, 14, 16 and 21 points.

Heck, they played the Lions twice, held them to 33 points, an average of 169 yards passing and still went 0-2.

So if you’re still undecided about what the Vikings should focus on as the 18-week NFL Draft Hype Regular Season approaches, keep it simple and think about three things:

Scoring, scoring and, well, scoring.

The Vikings are 24th in scoring at 19.8 points per game. Throw out the 34 points scored by the defense and special teams, and, well, the offense is generating just 16.4 points per game.

Zimmer and General Manager Rick Spielman are benefiting from a defensive overhaul that changed eight of 11 starters. Seven of the top eight linemen are new, linebacker Anthony Barr was a draft-day hit despite a recent knee injury, and the secondary is well-coached and uncharacteristically healthy with the four opening-day starters having played 94.1 percent of the snaps or more.

I think that has made a huge difference.

[IrishViking]

Agreed 100% for all the offensive side woes I am pretty happy with how healthy the Defense managed to stay. I am looking forward to an Even healthier more experienced D next year!

[Cliff]

I wonder what the offense would have looked like this year without injuries to the offensive line and their best player missing?

I actually think the offense is in a better position for next season than the stats show when people come back healthy ... or come back at all.

[losperros]

I think that has made a huge difference.

Absolutely, Jim.

Intangibles such as injuries, things that can't really be foreseen in preseason, can shape or reshape an entire season for any NFL team.

And I also agree that the secondary is better coached nowadays.

[dead_poet]

I wonder what the offense would have looked like this year without injuries to the offensive line and their best player missing?

And a healthy Rudolph. But expectations should've been tempered the moment AD was suspended and again when Teddy began starting. Man, AD is such a wild card right now. I'm really curious as to Spielman's offseason/draft plans. I still think he may be tempted to look long and hard at Melvin White and Gurley (and God help him if he does in the minds of many a Purple fan but I wouldn't complain if we scooped him up at the top of round 2 or in classic Rick trade-back at the end of R1). And will he pass up a premiere OT in the early rounds? To me the first two picks will probably signal how he looks at the RB and LT positions (doubtful anyone of note will be brought in via free agency at those two positions). If he goes RB in R1 or 2, I think AD is gone if they haven't already made that decision already. If he goes OT in those rounds, Kalil will face competition and it's possible one of them ends up at LG (Scherff, for example, could be a nasty guard). My gut now says we don't take a RB in the first couple of rounds, but that doesn't mean AD is necessarily going to be suiting up in '15.

The offense is going to look different for sure. I can't wait to see just how different.

[mansquatch]

What a difference a year makes!

Last year the offense put up something close to 30pts/game and we were having this discussion but about how we had invested so many top picks in offense vs. the defense.

After an overdue coaching change we are seeing all of our high draft pick defensive players perform at or beyond expectations. It is hard to deny the turnaround that has happened on that side of the ball. At the same time we are basically seeing every top draft pick on offense either struggle or just completely bust out. Kalil and Patterson are huge question marks at this point. Ponder is a bust. The only top offensive pick that is performing with anything close to consistent is Bridgewater. After that the best high picks are Loadhold, Rudolph, and Jennings. The first two are injured and inconsistent and the latter was a Free Agency pick up.

Lots of issues on offense, but I’m not sure they are all talent related. Our OL was dreadful once AP went down, but is starting to bounce back despite missing three starters and Kalil’s well discussed struggles. AP being out cannot be underestimated. The pass catching group still lacks a dominant playmaker, but it does have several solid role players. For this reason I’m not sold on drafting at this position. We’ve got our late round #2/#3 guys in Wright and Johnson and Jennings. We lack the star guy. So unless we are willing to invest our #1 here, it seems like a waste since we’ve already got depth.

RB is a question, but that is a different can of worms.

I think it is entirely possible that getting healthy and getting AP back resolves a lot of our issues. Not to advocate complacency, but this is an offseason where some of these issues might be over-hyped.

I think if they draft offense with the 1st round pick it will be OG. I also think there is a chance they’ll go after another tall CB to play on the outside if the right kind of guy is available. Maybe this will be the year Spielman trades down?

[Mothman]

What a difference a year makes!

Last year the offense put up something close to 30pts/game and we were having this discussion but about how we had invested so many top picks in offense vs. the defense.

After an overdue coaching change we are seeing all of our high draft pick defensive players perform at or beyond expectations. It is hard to deny the turnaround that has happened on that side of the ball. At the same time we are basically seeing every top draft pick on offense either struggle or just completely bust out. Kalil and Patterson are huge question marks at this point. Ponder is a bust. The only top offensive pick that is performing with anything close to consistent is Bridgewater. After that the best high picks are Loadhold, Rudolph, and Jennings. The first two are injured and inconsistent and the latter was a Free Agency pick up.

Lots of issues on offense, but I’m not sure they are all talent related. Our OL was dreadful once AP went down, but is starting to bounce back despite missing three starters and Kalil’s well discussed struggles. AP being out cannot be underestimated. The pass catching group still lacks a dominant playmaker, but it does have several solid role players. For this reason I’m not sold on drafting at this position. We’ve got our late round #2/#3 guys in Wright and Johnson and Jennings. We lack the star guy. So unless we are willing to invest our #1 here, it seems like a waste since we’ve already got depth.

RB is a question, but that is a different can of worms.

I think it is entirely possible that getting healthy and getting AP back resolves a lot of our issues. Not to advocate complacency, but this is an offseason where some of these issues might be over-hyped.

I think if they draft offense with the 1st round pick it will be OG. I also think there is a chance they’ll go after another tall CB to play on the outside if the right kind of guy is available. Maybe this will be the year Spielman trades down?

Maybe... accumulating picks and building better depth might really help this team. They need to find a way to get over the hump. Last year, age (in the form of both aging players and inexperienced players) and injuries killed their defense. This year, it seems similar issues really hurt their offense. Meanwhile, the defense, which has been relatively healthy, especially on the back end, is allowing points at pretty much the same rate as the 2012 team. If they could keep both units healthy for the majority of a season, they might be a playoff team. They could certainly use more impact players and some upgrades in a few areas but I wonder if depth isn't as much of a problem as anything else for the Vikings. They don't seem able to overcome the injuries. Admittedly, that's tough for any team but I think part of the next step for the Vikes has to be get better from the top of the 53 man roster to the bottom, not just at the top.

[mansquatch]

Every team has the depth problem. In some ways you could argue that on offense the depth did a decent job. There is no replacing an AP, but as the season has worn on Asiata/McKinnon have done a solid job given their status as back ups. Likewise, the OL has improved all season long despite all the injuries.

On one level the simple fact a guy is not a starter means when he steps on the field there is going to be a drop in his playing ability due to not having the same game time experience as the starter. It is fair to ask how much of the drop off we see with “depth guys” is due to this lack of playing time vs. a difference in talent? In terms of a superstar the talent difference will show, but I suspect for most players it is the different in experience that makes up most of the drop off.

[Mothman]

Every team has the depth problem. In some ways you could argue that on offense the depth did a decent job. There is no replacing an AP, but as the season has worn on Asiata/McKinnon have done a solid job given their status as back ups. Likewise, the OL has improved all season long despite all the injuries.

On one level the simple fact a guy is not a starter means when he steps on the field there is going to be a drop in his playing ability due to not having the same game time experience as the starter. It is fair to ask how much of the drop off we see with “depth guys” is due to this lack of playing time vs. a difference in talent? In terms of a superstar the talent difference will show, but I suspect for most players it is the different in experience that makes up most of the drop off.

It's true that every team faces the same basic truth that their backups, as a whole, aren't going to be as good as their starters (as a whole) but not all depth charts are equal and the difference isn't always one of game experience. There are talent differences as well. I'm just not clear on your overall point above. Isn't it always worth trying to improve the depth behind the starters as well as the starting lineup?

[losperros]

And a healthy Rudolph. But expectations should've been tempered the moment AD was suspended and again when Teddy began starting. Man, AD is such a wild card right now. I'm really curious as to Spielman's offseason/draft plans. I still think he may be tempted to look long and hard at Melvin White and Gurley (and God help him if he does in the minds of many a Purple fan but I wouldn't complain if we scooped him up at the top of round 2 or in classic Rick trade-back at the end of R1). And will he pass up a premiere OT in the early rounds? To me the first two picks will probably signal how he looks at the RB and LT positions (doubtful anyone of note will be brought in via free agency at those two positions). If he goes RB in R1 or 2, I think AD is gone if they haven't already made that decision already. If he goes OT in those rounds, Kalil will face competition and it's possible one of them ends up at LG (Scherff, for example, could be a nasty guard). My gut now says we don't take a RB in the first couple of rounds, but that doesn't mean AD is necessarily going to be suiting up in '15.

The offense is going to look different for sure. I can't wait to see just how different.

I've been thinking a lot about the same things, DP. I don't know why but my gut is telling me the Vikings are going focus on improving OL with their early picks.

RB is a definite possibility. But will the Vikings feel they have a good RB by committee dynamic right now that could be far better if the OL was improved first and foremost? I think one could make a case for that.

There is also Teddy. Zimmer commented that they're happy they've kept Teddy "upright." Again, a good OL that can provide quality pass blocking helps Teddy's game a lot as well.

[dead_poet]

It's true that every team faces the same basic truth that their backups, as a whole, aren't going to be as good as their starters (as a whole) but not all depth charts are equal and the difference isn't always one of game experience. There are talent differences as well. I'm just not clear on your overall point above. Isn't it always worth trying to improve the depth behind the starters as well as the starting lineup?

The point might be the Vikings may not have the luxury of improving depth when they're still in dire need for quality starters at many positions (though I agree in a perfect world they get better all over). I'm also not so sure the Vikings depth is necessarily that much worse than the quality of depth of other teams. I'm not really sure how you'd even go about attempting to compare or measure that. We know because we follow the team so closely but I couldn't tell you about the #5 CB on the Titans or #4 OG/OT on the Ravens. The Vikings are probably better at depth at some positions than other teams and worse off than other teams at other positions.

[frosted]

I think it says a lot about the depth we have on defense right now, that we put up one of the best performances of that year on that side of the ball this last Sunday, without three of our starters (Floyd, Barr, Blanton).

[CbusVikesFan]

24 points is the Mendoza line. When the offense averages that or more, and subsequently the defense holds teams to under 24, the Vikings will win more games than they lose. So simple, right?

[Mothman]

I've been thinking a lot about the same things, DP. I don't know why but my gut is telling me the Vikings are going focus on improving OL with their early picks.

RB is a definite possibility. But will the Vikings feel they have a good RB by committee dynamic right now that could be far better if the OL was improved first and foremost? I think one could make a case for that.

There is also Teddy. Zimmer commented that they're happy they've kept Teddy "upright." Again, a good OL that can provide quality pass blocking helps Teddy's game a lot as well.

OL and RB are definitely possibilities (especially if Peterson isn't back) but honestly, I won't be surprised at all if they go with a defensive player in the first round. Zimmer's a defensive coach and although the defense has improved, you can tell he's not satisfied with it. In the end, the talent available on the board might dictate the direction they go as much anything else but even though, as the headline of Mark Craig's article says, the defense grades well and the offense needs building, I don't think either unit is a finished product. If they have the opportunity to put another key "piece" in place on defense early in the draft, they might just do it.

[Mothman]

Intangibles such as injuries, things that can't really be foreseen in preseason, can shape or reshape an entire season for any NFL team.

Exactly, Craig, which is why I think the Vikings need to give a little more serious consideration to their depth chart at certain positions, not just weaknesses in the starting lineup.

The point might be the Vikings may not have the luxury of improving depth when they're still in dire need for quality starters at many positions (though I agree in a perfect world they get better all over).

I understand. To some extent, with players under contract, improving a starter might mean improving the depth chart anyway by bumping a starter down to a backup.

I'm also not so sure the Vikings depth is necessarily that much worse than the quality of depth of other teams. I'm not really sure how you'd even go about attempting to compare or measure that. We know because we follow the team so closely but I couldn't tell you about the #5 CB on the Titans or #4 OG/OT on the Ravens. The Vikings are probably better at depth at some positions than other teams and worse off than other teams at other positions.

That's probably true but I see strong depth in some areas as more of a need than luxury. For example, if Adrian Peterson is the primary back and they intend to reply on him to a relatively significant extent, it makes sense to have a stronger backup than what the Vikes had this year. I just think it makes sense to have strong depth in areas that are the key to the team. It might even be essential to success. QB is obviously one of those areas. For the Vikes, as they're built, RB strikes me as one too. Then there's the defense...

I think it says a lot about the depth we have on defense right now, that we put up one of the best performances of that year on that side of the ball this last Sunday, without three of our starters (Floyd, Barr, Blanton).

That's true but I wonder if they could have done the same missing Rhodes, Robinson and Smith in the defensive backfield, as they were in the latter part of last season. Maybe that's not the best example since they held Detroit to just 13 points and a similar number of yards at the end of last season but I think in this division, with the importance of the passing game in today's NFL, strong depth in the defensive backfield is a must and that's an area I'd like to see the Vikes keep trying to upgrade. I thought the need for better depth in that area really hurt them in 2013 (and 2011) and as Craig said, injuries can shape or reshape an entire season. We've arguably seen it happen to the Vikes two years in a row. If they can avoid the hat trick, it would be nice.