Vikings Message Board.Com

That graph says it all. Ouch.

Buuuut AP isn't human, so it's all good. (Sorry to the dude(s) who hates "AP" and prefers "AD")

Thanks for the link. I wish there was more data. The graph gives us very raw information without context. For example, how much of the drop in production is due to a drop in performance and how much is due to a drop in carries/opportunities? is there a significant decline in average yards per carry at age 27 or just total yards?

Mothman wrote:Thanks for the link. I wish there was more data. The graph gives us very raw information without context. For example, how much of the drop in production is due to a drop in performance and how much is due to a drop in carries/opportunities? is there a significant decline in average yards per carry at age 27 or just total yards?

I'm also a bit irked at this:

t's true that he had the fifth-most rushing yards (1,266) in the NFL, but he also missed two games and overall fell 40 percent from his 2,097-yard effort in 2012.

Like that's a sustainable rate for any running back. It's not like AD's yards are going to decrease by 40% annually.

Let me be the first to point out how stupid the front office is for giving a running back so much money. There. That's out of the way, so nobody has to say it now.

By the same graph ... We could say that running backs at 31 are just as productive as they were at 21.

dead_poet wrote:I'm also a bit irked at this:
Like that's a sustainable rate for any running back. It's not like AD's yards are going to decrease by 40% annually.

It certainly puts an exclamation mark on the peak in the graph at 27 years and the steep fall off after that. Peterson was 27 during his 2000 yard year.

Peterson's struggles in the next couple of years will most likely continue to be with remaining healthy. After that we can expect to see the nagging injuries combine with a decline in yards per carry.

dead_poet wrote:I'm also a bit irked at this:
Like that's a sustainable rate for any running back. It's not like AD's yards are going to decrease by 40% annually.

You don't think 2000 yards a season is sustainable? Come on, 7 players have run for that many yards in a season! How difficult can it be?

Let me be the first to point out how stupid the front office is for giving a running back so much money. There. That's out of the way, so nobody has to say it now.

It will probably be said anyway.

Funkytown wrote:That graph says it all. Ouch.

Buuuut AP isn't human, so it's all good. (Sorry to the dude(s) who hates "AP" and prefers "AD")

To give a little more perspective on this in terms of great backs, John Riggins of the Redskins is the oldest running back to break 1,000 yards at the age of 35. This is less relevant and more wishful thinking than anything as he played against very different players than are in the league today. If peterson breaks 1,000 yards next season he will pass Riggins on the all time rushing list with about 2 seasons worth of carries less so that's definitely a positive. Of the running backs to break 10,000 yards, Peterson's yards per carry average is tied with Barry Sanders and only trails Jim Brown. 32 is the real age that concerns me for Peterson, 30 and 31 is not an uncommon age for top running backs to break 1,000 yards but when you hit 32 (Petersons final year) the list grows slim, it includes Franco Harris, John Riggins, Emmitt Smith, and Walter Payton. If you see the pattern in these backs it's like Purplemania pointed out, they have speed but their real strength is power football. If you've watched Peterson you know he fits that mold. So in my opinion I think it's safe to say Peterson will remain dominant for the next three seasons and has a chance to maintain it in his final season. All that being said I think by the time he's 32 we will have a franchise QB in his prime and a backup running back capable of sharing the load to keep Peterson fresh, so a drop from 1,000 yards per season could be a natural result of not completely relying on him/giving him help. While i don't like the Idea of paying someone 16 mill past their prime, especially a running back, it's no different than overpaying for Jared Allen last year when he didn't produce. I think it might actually be somewhat convenient because when Petersons contract expires It will likely be around the same time our franchise QB's rookie contract is up and we can simply move that money to his contract instead of having the problem many teams have in making cuts and letting free agents walk to save money for a franchise QB.

Hope this gave you guys some better insight into this than the stupid graph, SKOL!

I've seen it before, and honestly it's a pretty common scare tactic that some Vikings fans or bloggers trying to get a bite will use. It generalizes all RBs who meet the criteria so that it gives some people the illusion that AP might suddenly fall off. He certainly could, but nothing at this point suggests it, and there's plenty to suggest against it in AP's tape from last season. In a good offense, which I'm willing to bet the Vikings have next year, I think he'll be right back to being an MVP contender and the best RB in the NFL. Not that there isn't still the best RB in the NFL, I just think he's going to prove it this year.

Purplemania wrote:Not to be a homer, but I think AD can sustain 1400 yds rushing well into his 30's...the guy will lose his speed, but he is still the toughest back to bring down and that won't change as muscle mass is one thing humans can obtain consistently.

I think he's a Michael Jordan type of athlete. He has the tenacity, the competitiveness, the raw physical talent, and a lot of confidence in his skills.

Two things people tend to forget about MJ is that he didn't win his title until he got Pippen, and he was 30. The other thing, is that Michael actually returned to the NBA and found himself a little overmatched, some people thought he was a great but fading talent that couldn't simply overpower every other player. Well, MJ developed his jump shot over the offseason so that he didn't have to dunk over his competition. He came back the next year, and the Bulls won 3 more titles.

To me, AP still has the same physical talent he had before, and I think he still has a window of about 2-3 years where he'll still be able to do the things he did as a rookie. I also think he's the kind of guy who will adjust his game and perhaps become a more cerebral player as his skills start to decline into his 30s.

Jeffbleedspurple wrote:AP's graph is going in the other direction this season, cus hes getting more than 1266 yards

I think AP's about to have his best year yet.

dead_poet wrote: I'm also a bit irked at this:

Not sure why you would be irked about that, he was just stating a couple of facts. He didn't make any predictions that AP would continue to drop 40% every year, which I'm sure won't happen (unless due to injury).

thank you guys for remembering me but I don't prefer AD I demand it. An he is a beast not a human he will be breaking a thousand yards when he's in a wheelchair. I can hear it already " and Adrian's loose and so is his left wheel , haa Honestly though I would be comfortable betting money he'll break 1000 still at 35 barring a catastrophic injury an even then when there's a will there's a AD.