mondry wrote:My point, that you're not accepting, is that to get a megatron or AD level prospect you better be picking pretty high, probably higher than we are.
And as I've shown, that's not necessarily the case. You don't need to be picking
that high to get a player of that caliber.
If you don't agree that's one thing and it's totally fine, but I'd like to hear why you think the very best elite prospects can be picked up #8 over all.
Because scouting is an inexact science and players drafted out of the top-10 have gone on to have much, much more productive careers than some of the guys drafted before them.
Calvin Johnson went #2 overall I believe and AD went #7. Either Manning, Andrew Luck, etc, these guys just don't come around very often and have a very high success rate, thus they rarely drop to #8, or in most cases don't even get past #1 or the top 5.
To Jim's point, is there a guy like that in this draft to begin with? Is Teddy Bridgewater that once-in-a-generation player? I'm skeptical (though think he'll likely be very good). For the sake of argument, let's take one of your examples: Eli Manning. He was drafted #1 overall in 2004. He has two Super Bowl rings. What if I told you the guy that was taken 10 spots afte rhim that year
also has two Super Bowl rings, is 10th all-time in NFL passer rating (92.9), 5th in yards per attempt (8.06), and 11th in completion percentage (63.24%). He has the fourth highest career winning percentage (.710) as a starter in the regular season among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 starts. Ben Roethlisberger was the third quarterback taken that year. I'd argue he's had as much or more success than the 10 players taken before him, save for maaaaybe Larry Fitzgerald. Heck, that same year Jared Allen went 126th overall.
If Clowney, after the combine, all the film, and all the analysis rates out for DE's what Calvin Johnson did for WRs I have no doubt he'll be gone by #8.
That's where I think part of the disconnect rests: the ratings. It's not an exact science. Those same ratings (people) gave us guys like JaMarcus Russell, Charles Rogers, Vernon Gholston, Troy Williamson and Jason Smith.
What reasoning can you possibly have to say otherwise? Sure he may not pan out, he may be a bust, but that doesn't mean he'll be there for us to take and that's my point.
I
think I'm starting to see what you're getting at.
Bridgewater isn't an elite prospect though, or at least I don't think he is. Keep in mind that's DIFFERENT from being the best QB in the draft, which in itself still has an insane amount of value by default, but he's not on a level of Manning or Luck so he doesn't qualify.
So, then, we have nothing to be that disappointed about if he doesn't fall to us, then, yes? If there's no clear difference in quality of potential blue-chip players? I may feel differently IF a Luck or Manning WAS there and we missed out. But even then, we've seen time and again players drafted later can be elite, impact players.
The magical thresh hold probably isn't even 8th, it's probably more like #5 but you could argue #3. But AD, as elite of a prospect as he was, had significant injury concerns having broken his collar bone TWICE at OU and had another significant injury in college. A lot of people thought his style would break him and I'd say the league under valued the RB position in general.
That's where the disconnect rests. I don't really think there's a threshold, or as much as one as you believe there to be. It sounds like you think that, in any given draft, that there are only 1-3 (or 5) really, really impact, once-in-a-generation, elite blue chip players in each draft, they are ranked properly and will have careers that reflect their draft position. Maybe that's not what you mean.
There is a thresh hold though because truly elite prospects are so dominating with so much potential, that unless they have some kind of injury or character concern there is just no possible way they make it that long. For example, You can pick Calvin Johnson or Ted Ginn Jr. Pretty simple, you take Calvin Johnson, much bigger physically, much more impressive stats, etc etc. Next one, you can take Calvin Johnson or Jamarcus Russel. Again it's pretty simple, take Calvin Johnson, however ONE Team got so caught up in thinking they could fix their QB position, a more important position, that they flubbed it up.
Would other teams have flubbed it up too? If memory serves, Russel was pretty highly rated and was the consensus #1 overall pick. Consider former Baltimore head coach Brian Billick:
“We did a pretty decent job, and obviously they continue to do a phenomenal job in Baltimore, with Ozzie Newsome and his group,” Billick said. “JaMarcus Russell was the highest-rated player I’ve ever seen on any of our boards. So we all missed on JaMarcus Russell. Make no mistake.”
He said Russel was
the highest grade Baltimore ever had on any player heading into the draft. I think a LOT of teams picking that year would've flubbed it up.
The problem with elite prospects falling to #8 is that you need not just one oakland raider type pick, you would need 7 teams to do it. Unless of course their's an even better player, like Calvin Johnson. Hard to say the Lions messed up on adrian peterson when they got megatron. No matter what though, the Atlanta Falcons picking #8 had no shot at Peterson and that's the point, they didn't even have a chance at him.
There's always a chance if you are willing to surrender draft picks to climb up. But also remember that you could be trading up for Calvin Johnson or Troy Williamson. Andrew Luck or Jamarcus Russel. You never, ever
know.
My point is, I don't care
where they pick as long as they pick the right guys.
I suppose I have a hard time doing that, because I want the best player over the course of his career as opposed to the best prospect.