Vikings @ 49ers Game Day Discussion Thread -- Preseason #3

[mondry]

Ponder has played 1.5 seasons and has been in the league for 2. Thought I'd say that since a lot of you sound like you've already projected or simulated Ponder's 3rd season and at the end of it he's failed. My point is he could play ALL of this upcoming season and still be a few games shy of that classic 3 year evaluation as the starter. I'm not saying he needs to play 48 games as the starter before we can judge him, he'll be judged that way regardless after this year and that's fine but let's wait till he actually finishes out his 3rd season as a pro!

As for drafting him, it's pretty clear spielman and co decided it was time to take a franchise guy and they took presumably who they thought was the best QB available. I really don't know what to say if you guys think we could have just took a 5th round QB and plugged him in to do what Ponder's doing. I see a lot of scoffing at 74% completion rate but in this offense that's exactly what's needed on 3rd and 5.

AD is good but Ponder does a lot more than you guys think when it comes to taking heat off of him and that completion rate is what keeps the chains moving. All you have to do is look at each game Peterson put up 210 and 199 on the Packers BOTH TIMES with Ponder playing and couldn't even crack 100 yards without Ponder in the line up. Surely Joe Webb should have been fine as a late round pick if the gap between he and Ponder wasn't that large and a monkey could run this offense no? Cassel should look a lot better than he does if the ONLY missing ingredient is better QB play right? Or is he just crap too? Funny how he was the savior and we had a QB controversy back in week 1 of the preseason.

Cutler - 3,033 yards - 19 TD's 14 INT's 81.3 QBR
Ponder - 2,935 yards - 18 TD's 12 INT's 81.2 QBR

So as of now he's about as good as Cutler without having a top 5 WR like Brandon Marshal to rely on. If he improves and gets better than that I think he'll be sticking around.

[Mothman]

Ponder has played 1.5 seasons and has been in the league for 2. Thought I'd say that since a lot of you sound like you've already projected or simulated Ponder's 3rd season and at the end of it he's failed. My point is he could play ALL of this upcoming season and still be a few games shy of that classic 3 year evaluation as the starter. I'm not saying he needs to play 48 games as the starter before we can judge him, he'll be judged that way regardless after this year and that's fine but let's wait till he actually finishes out his 3rd season as a pro!

As for drafting him, it's pretty clear spielman and co decided it was time to take a franchise guy and they took presumably who they thought was the best QB available. I really don't know what to say if you guys think we could have just took a 5th round QB and plugged him in to do what Ponder's doing. I see a lot of scoffing at 74% completion rate but in this offense that's exactly what's needed on 3rd and 5.

Sure it is but it's a positive stat so it's met with snark and dismissal. Ponder completed 74% of his passes? They were all checkdowns (they weren't of course, but it's easier to dismiss them that way). Ponder has been good in the red zone? That's because he benefits from AD. That's because AD got him there. That's because he gets helped by defensive penalties but it can't be because he's not completely incompetent and actually makes plays. It doesn't matter that a lot of other QBs also get the benefit of penalties so it's an even playing field. It doesn't matter that most successful QBs are aided by some star power around them and it certainly doesn't matter that Ponder himself often contributes to getting the Vikings in position to score.

AD is good but Ponder does a lot more than you guys think when it comes to taking heat off of him and that completion rate is what keeps the chains moving. All you have to do is look at each game Peterson put up 210 and 199 on the Packers BOTH TIMES with Ponder playing and couldn't even crack 100 yards without Ponder in the line up. Surely Joe Webb should have been fine as a late round pick if the gap between he and Ponder wasn't that large and a monkey could run this offense no?

That's a good point!

So as of now he's about as good as Cutler without having a top 5 WR like Brandon Marshal to rely on. If he improves and gets better than that I think he'll be sticking around.

... and if it works out that way, it could ultimately be good for the Vikings. If it doesn't, they'll move on.

Ponder's great "sin" is that he's not the flashy, ultra-talented, game-dominating future Hall of Fame QB many Vikes fans understandably crave and some fans are so angry, resentful or disillusioned by that fact that they can't see past his limitations, appreciate any positive aspect of his game or be patient enough to see how he develops and what kind of QB he ultimately becomes. He was condemned as a failure by a sizable percentage of the fan base before the end of his rookie season and since then, there's been an endless stream of criticism and a long, tedious blame game. Good passes are ignored. Good decisions are often ignored. Good performances are dismissed. The impact of the performances around him doesn't matter. There's a determination to criticize, which is why he's the target du jour whether he throws 2 passes or 23. It's maddening.

Edit: Let me just add, yet again, that I'm NOT sold on Ponder as a long term starter. His game has deficiencies that need to be improved and I don't know if he has what it takes to develop into a really good QB. He has the physical tools for the job and I know he's a smart player but I just don't know if he can put it all together and get where he needs to go. I'm encouraged that he was able to make good use of Percy Harvin in the latter half of 2011 and the first half of 2012 and that he's been able to develop a pretty nice rapport with Kyle Rudolph. Hopefully, his chemistry with the latter will continue to improve and he'll develop good chemistry with his other receivers as well (he seemed to be on the way with Wright). I believe keeping a group of players together for a while can really help a passing game and this one needs help.

Anyway, I'm unconvinced but I'm trying to be patient and see what this season brings since there's really no other choice. I'm just hoping to enjoy the ride and if the ride breaks down, I'll be happy to talk about who the Vikings next QB will during the offseason.

[Raptorman]

So as of now he's about as good as Cutler without having a top 5 WR like Brandon Marshal to rely on. If he improves and gets better than that I think he'll be sticking around.

Who the WR's he was throwing to doesn't matter to most people. Let's see were two of those guys are from last year. Jenkins.......Signed with Pats............cut......even Brady couldn't make him look good. Aromashodu.......went back to the Bears........and got cut.......so Cutler couldn't make him look good. So two of the WR's that he was throwing to last year, aren't even on a team this year. But that doesn't matter to most people. If you want to compare Ponder to other QB's, fine, but compare him to QB's that came into the league when he did. And what you will find is that he is in line with those QB's. None of whom have broken into the HOF franchise type QB that everyone seems to covet. Personally I would rather have a QB like Eli Manning over Payton Manning. Take a good look at the QB who have won the Super Bowl the last 10 years. Eli 2, Ben 2 Flacco 1, Brady 2, Rodger 1, Payton 1, Brees 1. What I see is half have been won by Superstar QB's, the other half by good QB's. Ponder doesn't have to be in the Brady/Rodgers group, he only need to be in the Eli/Ben group. And he is not that far away. Let's see if he gets there before we crucify him.

[Mothman]

Who the WR's he was throwing to doesn't matter to most people. Let's see were two of those guys are from last year. Jenkins.......Signed with Pats............cut......even Brady couldn't make him look good. Aromashodu.......went back to the Bears........and got cut.......so Cutler couldn't make him look good. So two of the WR's that he was throwing to last year, aren't even on a team this year. But that doesn't matter to most people.

... and yet it's relevant. Consider the stat NBC threw out there on Sunday night and (Ponder critics immediately latched onto) about the absence of any TD passes of over 20 yards in 2012. Receivers have a pretty big impact on a team's ability to complete those longer TD passes. The QB does too but it's not ALL about him.

Good post, Raptorman.

[PacificNorseWest]

I'm ready for the regular season. This forum and its posters need meaningful games to start clamoring about because this preseason nonsense doesn't take us too far.

[Raptorman]

... and yet it's relevant. Consider the stat NBC threw out there on Sunday night and (Ponder critics immediately latched onto) about the absence of any TD passes of over 20 yards in 12. Receivers have a pretty big impact on a team's ability to complete those longer TD passes. The QB does too but it's not ALL about him.

Good post, Raptorman.

FWIW, the stat said over 20 yards. Ponder had a 20 yard TD pass to Rudolph against Detroit.

[cstelter]

... and yet it's relevant. Consider the stat NBC threw out there on Sunday night and (Ponder critics immediately latched onto) about the absence of any TD passes of over 20 yards in 12. Receivers have a pretty big impact on a team's ability to complete those longer TD passes. The QB does too but it's not ALL about him.

Good post, Raptorman.

When I read the link you posted, I was unsure about 17 TD's in the redzone being accurate. Surely some of his 18 passing TD's came on longer pass plays right?

So I had a look at http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... s/passing/

Well, no. Just the 1 pass for a TD at 20 yards-- I guess that must be considered outside the red zone as they only had 17 td's listed in the article.

But if you look at his prior year, 5 of his 13 TD's were beyond 20 yards (4 of which went to Percy). So the theory on WR competency seems very plausible.

Ponder also ran in 2 TD in the redzone, so seems like that should figure into the article's analysis too, but it didn't seem to.

I'm pretty disgusted with what I've seen in pre-season, and Ponder has been far from a bright spot in it all. But he *is* the QB so I'm not going to go out of my way to find reasons to hate him during the season. We'll see how I feel after the season.

[mondry]

... and yet it's relevant. Consider the stat NBC threw out there on Sunday night and (Ponder critics immediately latched onto) about the absence of any TD passes of over 20 yards in 12. Receivers have a pretty big impact on a team's ability to complete those longer TD passes. The QB does too but it's not ALL about him.

Good post, Raptorman.

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 61a9b49b66

From the ref's spot, looks like 6 inches and that precious "no TD passes over 20 yards" would have went bye bye! But it's better for their arguments if we pretend plays like this never happened with a cherry picked stat!

[Raptorman]

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 61a9b49b66

From the ref's spot, looks like 6 inches and that precious "no TD passes over 20 yards" would have went bye bye! But it's better for their arguments if we pretend plays like this never happened with a cherry picked stat!

Wait, what was that I just saw? Was that a 50 yard pass? It couldn't have been, Ponder can't throw that far.

[Mothman]

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/vide ... 61a9b49b66

From the ref's spot, looks like 6 inches and that precious "no TD passes over 20 yards" would have went bye bye! But it's better for their arguments if we pretend plays like this never happened with a cherry picked stat!

LOL! My mind went straight to that play when I saw the stat too. It just shows how insignificant a stat like that is...

Aromashodu had a chance to catch a long TD pass against the Bears too and couldn't make the catch. It wouldn't have been easy but it was a catchable pass.

When I read the link you posted, I was unsure about 17 TD's in the redzone being accurate. Surely some of his 18 passing TD's came on longer pass plays right?

So I had a look at http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... s/passing/

Well, no. Just the 1 pass for a TD at 20 yards-- I guess that must be considered outside the red zone as they only had 17 td's listed in the article.

But if you look at his prior year, 5 of his 13 TD's were beyond 20 yards (4 of which went to Percy). So the theory on WR competency seems very plausible.

Ponder also ran in 2 TD in the redzone, so seems like that should figure into the article's analysis too, but it didn't seem to.

I'm pretty disgusted with what I've seen in pre-season, and Ponder has been far from a bright spot in it all. But he *is* the QB so I'm not going to go out of my way to find reasons to hate him during the season. We'll see how I feel after the season.

That's what I intend to do. The offense as a whole hasn't been very sharp in the preseason and while I hope that will change quickly once the regular season begins, I'm not expecting miracles. I want to see how Ponder performs over the course of a third season, especially as he gets more and more time with this group of receivers. If he's going to be "the man" at QB, it may not be evident in September but it should be clear by the end of the year.

[Just Me]

From the ref's spot, looks like 6 inches and that precious "no TD passes over 20 yards" would have went bye bye! But it's better for their arguments if we pretend plays like this never happened with a cherry picked stat!

Interestingly, the pocket collapses around him, but Ponder stays with the pocket, stepping forward and ahead to throw the strike. If he develops that habit (and the OL can give him more than a couple of seconds to throw) he can be a solid QB for us. We're going to find out (for real) in a couple of weeks...

[Raptorman]

When Ponder was stepping up in SF and had the ball stripped, he was starting to pass. Does anyone know, or has anyone seen who he was going for?

[Mothman]

Man, this is going to be a long two weeks.

ReFo: MIN @ SF, Preseason Wk 3

Thanks for the link.

Robison is definitely looking quick off the snap again and if he could get off to a fast, productive start to the season at Detroit, that would be big. The Vikes will need a good performance from their d-line against that passing attack.

[Mothman]

When Ponder was stepping up in SF and had the ball stripped, he was starting to pass. Does anyone know, or has anyone seen who he was going for?

I couldn't tell on the broadcast.

[mondry]

Man, this is going to be a long two weeks.

ReFo: MIN @ SF, Preseason Wk 3

So it's even better than 74% on check downs, it's 100% on intermediate passes LOL