2024 NFL Draft

[VikingsVictorious]

Could the Vikings sit at 11 and take Nix there?

Nix is not getting nearly the hype of the other top QB prospects for some reason, and short of an unprecedented stampede at QB at the top of the draft, I think Nix is highly likely to still be on the board when the 11th pick rolls around, which means at least in terms of proven productivity, the Vikings would be drafting probably the most pro-ready QB in this class.

One other thing that jumps out of the provided stats is just how speculative a prospect McCarthy is. I mean, he literally shows up nowhere in that list in any category. He is by far the biggest gamble in this year's QB class IMHO.

In fact, reading over the names on that list goes back to the desperation post I made earlier in this thread and how a good GM takes advantage of the mistakes of others rather than allowing himself to fall into the same traps. The hype around a lot of the top QBs in this draft should increase the odds of a less-sexy, but perhaps better prospect, falling. To some degree, that is what happened when the Vikings got Justin Jefferson the year he came out. Like Nix, JJ was a proven commodity in terms of college production and was generally regarded as the most pro-ready of the receivers that came out this year, but he didn't have as much hype around him because he didn't stand out physically like the receivers that were taken ahead of him. Its possible they just got lucky in that draft, but getting a proven talent like JJ where they got him is exactly the sort of move that a savvy GM makes, while a desperate GM chases the flashy prospects who just need time to "develop".

I still think 11 is way too high for Nix even though I think he's a good choice there, but QB inflation being what it is I wouldn't be terribly upset if KAM takes him there.

JJ also came into a situation that had a veteran accurate QB. The guy the Rams pick Puka Nacua didn't light up college and fell to round 5. He was the best rookie WR and broke records. He was a roll of the dice pick and it worked year 1. He also had a good vet QB. Where you go as a rookie is key.
VV has liked Nix from day 1 which is fine. I looked at Nix tape and he and JJM have a style that is the same. Basically looks like the same guy. They both roll out of trouble and then look for a guy or take off. But JJM has better physical skills. He gets away from the clutter quicker and when the ball comes out it is much faster. I know some don't think it matters but JJM is a 21 YO true JR. Nix is a 5th year senior. That's a 2 year jump in development. Nix could be maxed already. Maye has a style that to me is similar to Stafford as he climbs the pocket and can see over the bodies in front of him looking for a target. His height is a big advantage. But he seems clumsy from that height. Who knows.

I've liked Nix, but understand he is #4 on my QB board. It goes Caleb, Jayden, JJ, Bo, Michael P and Drake in that order. As stated JJ has a huge potential for more improvement than Bo. The only reason I'd consider Drake at all is his youth.

[CharVike]

JJ also came into a situation that had a veteran accurate QB. The guy the Rams pick Puka Nacua didn't light up college and fell to round 5. He was the best rookie WR and broke records. He was a roll of the dice pick and it worked year 1. He also had a good vet QB. Where you go as a rookie is key.
VV has liked Nix from day 1 which is fine. I looked at Nix tape and he and JJM have a style that is the same. Basically looks like the same guy. They both roll out of trouble and then look for a guy or take off. But JJM has better physical skills. He gets away from the clutter quicker and when the ball comes out it is much faster. I know some don't think it matters but JJM is a 21 YO true JR. Nix is a 5th year senior. That's a 2 year jump in development. Nix could be maxed already. Maye has a style that to me is similar to Stafford as he climbs the pocket and can see over the bodies in front of him looking for a target. His height is a big advantage. But he seems clumsy from that height. Who knows.

I've liked Nix, but understand he is #4 on my QB board. It goes Caleb, Jayden, JJ, Bo, Michael P and Drake in that order. As stated JJ has a huge potential for more improvement than Bo. The only reason I'd consider Drake at all is his youth.

Got it. Looks like the Giants are bringing Drake in. With their junk OL and facing the Cowboy and Eagle pass rush twice each year he won't have a good chance. Start making the bust sign.

[VikingsVictorious]

I've liked Nix, but understand he is #4 on my QB board. It goes Caleb, Jayden, JJ, Bo, Michael P and Drake in that order. As stated JJ has a huge potential for more improvement than Bo. The only reason I'd consider Drake at all is his youth.

Got it. Looks like the Giants are bringing Drake in. With their junk OL and facing the Cowboy and Eagle pass rush twice each year he won't have a good chance. Start making the bust sign.

I don't believe for a second that the Giants will select a QB this year. Not with Jones on the contract he's on and not with those WRs available.

[CharVike]

Got it. Looks like the Giants are bringing Drake in. With their junk OL and facing the Cowboy and Eagle pass rush twice each year he won't have a good chance. Start making the bust sign.

I don't believe for a second that the Giants will select a QB this year. Not with Jones on the contract he's on and not with those WRs available.

They are stuck with Jones for a year but then what? Be part of a draft with nothing at QB again and pick another Jones? Drake will need a year anyway. IMO they better get some OL players before even thinking about anything else. Any team that can challenge has a dam good OL. A team can handle a rookie contract with Jones's deal. They will need to pay a rookie regardless of position. It's the spot that dictates the hit.

[VikingsVictorious]

Michael Penix much more athletic than expected at Pro Day. 4.5 40 and 36.5 inch Vert. I don't get why with that athleticism he is considered very immobile as a QB.

[VikingLord]

I still think 11 is way too high for Nix even though I think he's a good choice there, but QB inflation being what it is I wouldn't be terribly upset if KAM takes him there.

I truly doubt Nix makes it past 3-4.

I haven't seen a single mock with Nix going that high. That doesn't mean he won't, but he hasn't generated much hype since he entered this year's draft. He and Penix seem to be bandied around as the top of the 2nd tier of QBs coming out this year. McCarthy was also in that group for a long time but he's getting more hype lately for some reason and it seems like that has propelled him into the 1st tier of QB prospects this year.

Nix really ticks most of the boxes for a pro QB prospect. He's not truly elite in any sense and he'll be a little older for a rookie, but he reminds me a lot of the QB equivalent of Justin Jefferson coming out, and in the right situation I could see him quickly getting on the field and becoming very effective. He's got to go into the right situation though, and I think the Vikings would be exactly the right situation for a guy like Nix to thrive.

But, if Nix does come off the board at 3 or 4, then that just means someone else will slide down, and KAM can take advantage of that if he's smart and patient.

[VikingLord]

Michael Penix much more athletic than expected at Pro Day. 4.5 40 and 36.5 inch Vert. I don't get why with that athleticism he is considered very immobile as a QB.

I've watched several of the pre-draft evaluations of Penix and I believe the reason he's considered immobile isn't because he can't move in the pocket, but because he trusts his arm and has a quick and powerful release. Basically, he's confident in his ability to throw a guy open even if he's covered, and he makes plenty of throws that do exactly that. Some of the pre-draft evaluators like this about him and some hate it. Some feel like Penix just chucks it deep if he's pressured and hopes his guy comes down with it, while others feel like he doesn't progress through his reads, especially under pressure.

If this draft were just based on pure arm talent and the ability to throw basically perfect spirals all over the field, Penix would probably be the first QB taken. He has such a quick, tight release and its so consistent whether he's launching it deep or throwing it short. In addition to his mechanics, Penix shows what I consider to be a pretty good awareness of the field post-snap. He looks off safeties. He can fit mid and deep range balls into pretty tight windows where most other QBs would struggle if they even made the attempt.

When I look at Penix I see a supremely confident QB who isn't afraid to thread it into a tight or sometimes even non-existent window because he has the arm strength and touch to do that. I see a guy who is able to lead his team and inspire them. I see a guy who could easily develop into a very good and even great NFL QB and would be right in that top tier mix if it weren't for his injury history and the fact he's coming into the league on the older side for a rookie.

I'd still say 11 is high for Penix, but if KAM took him there I wouldn't be upset at all.

In my view, the only QB prospect in this year's draft worth the sort of trade compensation I've seen discussed for the Vikings to move up is Caleb Williams. After that I think any of Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix or Penix have roughly the same potential to succeed at the next level, and I think a large part of their ultimate success will be going to a team where they can have time to develop without being thrust into an immediate starter role. At this point I hope KAM just holds at 11 and lets the chips fall. He can get a good QB prospect without having to trade away any potential future talent. Then take Jackson Powers-Johnson or a DB at 23.

[BeforeIDie]

Michael Penix much more athletic than expected at Pro Day. 4.5 40 and 36.5 inch Vert. I don't get why with that athleticism he is considered very immobile as a QB.

I've watched several of the pre-draft evaluations of Penix and I believe the reason he's considered immobile isn't because he can't move in the pocket, but because he trusts his arm and has a quick and powerful release. Basically, he's confident in his ability to throw a guy open even if he's covered, and he makes plenty of throws that do exactly that. Some of the pre-draft evaluators like this about him and some hate it. Some feel like Penix just chucks it deep if he's pressured and hopes his guy comes down with it, while others feel like he doesn't progress through his reads, especially under pressure.

If this draft were just based on pure arm talent and the ability to throw basically perfect spirals all over the field, Penix would probably be the first QB taken. He has such a quick, tight release and its so consistent whether he's launching it deep or throwing it short. In addition to his mechanics, Penix shows what I consider to be a pretty good awareness of the field post-snap. He looks off safeties. He can fit mid and deep range balls into pretty tight windows where most other QBs would struggle if they even made the attempt.

When I look at Penix I see a supremely confident QB who isn't afraid to thread it into a tight or sometimes even non-existent window because he has the arm strength and touch to do that. I see a guy who is able to lead his team and inspire them. I see a guy who could easily develop into a very good and even great NFL QB and would be right in that top tier mix if it weren't for his injury history and the fact he's coming into the league on the older side for a rookie.

I'd still say 11 is high for Penix, but if KAM took him there I wouldn't be upset at all.

In my view, the only QB prospect in this year's draft worth the sort of trade compensation I've seen discussed for the Vikings to move up is Caleb Williams. After that I think any of Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix or Penix have roughly the same potential to succeed at the next level, and I think a large part of their ultimate success will be going to a team where they can have time to develop without being thrust into an immediate starter role. At this point I hope KAM just holds at 11 and lets the chips fall. He can get a good QB prospect without having to trade away any potential future talent. Then take Jackson Powers-Johnson or a DB at 23.

But I was told he’s a statue. 4.46 40. Of course pro day 40’s can be a little iffy, but even if you add a tenth of a second (which is HUGE), he’s still lightning fast. He doesn’t run often, but when he does he’s just as fast as any of these other rooks - I’ll concede power. But being a running juggernaut isn’t at the top of my priority list for QB. Big Penix!

[VikingsVictorious]

I've watched several of the pre-draft evaluations of Penix and I believe the reason he's considered immobile isn't because he can't move in the pocket, but because he trusts his arm and has a quick and powerful release. Basically, he's confident in his ability to throw a guy open even if he's covered, and he makes plenty of throws that do exactly that. Some of the pre-draft evaluators like this about him and some hate it. Some feel like Penix just chucks it deep if he's pressured and hopes his guy comes down with it, while others feel like he doesn't progress through his reads, especially under pressure.

If this draft were just based on pure arm talent and the ability to throw basically perfect spirals all over the field, Penix would probably be the first QB taken. He has such a quick, tight release and its so consistent whether he's launching it deep or throwing it short. In addition to his mechanics, Penix shows what I consider to be a pretty good awareness of the field post-snap. He looks off safeties. He can fit mid and deep range balls into pretty tight windows where most other QBs would struggle if they even made the attempt.

When I look at Penix I see a supremely confident QB who isn't afraid to thread it into a tight or sometimes even non-existent window because he has the arm strength and touch to do that. I see a guy who is able to lead his team and inspire them. I see a guy who could easily develop into a very good and even great NFL QB and would be right in that top tier mix if it weren't for his injury history and the fact he's coming into the league on the older side for a rookie.

I'd still say 11 is high for Penix, but if KAM took him there I wouldn't be upset at all.

In my view, the only QB prospect in this year's draft worth the sort of trade compensation I've seen discussed for the Vikings to move up is Caleb Williams. After that I think any of Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix or Penix have roughly the same potential to succeed at the next level, and I think a large part of their ultimate success will be going to a team where they can have time to develop without being thrust into an immediate starter role. At this point I hope KAM just holds at 11 and lets the chips fall. He can get a good QB prospect without having to trade away any potential future talent. Then take Jackson Powers-Johnson or a DB at 23.

But I was told he’s a statue. 4.46 40. Of course pro day 40’s can be a little iffy, but even if you add a tenth of a second (which is HUGE), he’s still lightning fast. He doesn’t run often, but when he does he’s just as fast as any of these other rooks - I’ll concede power. But being a running juggernaut isn’t at the top of my priority list for QB. Big Penix!

Being fast doesn't mean you're not a statue in the pocket. However, I think the immobile thing may have been exaggerated.

[BeforeIDie]

I agree, Victorious. Would I like to see Penix bail out a LITTLE more often and extend the play or throw on the run? Yes. Truthfully, I’d like to see him truck a defender or get tackled by 3 guys and hop right back up. I have seen that from Maye and JJM. That Josh Allen size and durability. But the way Penix spins the ball is 2 standard deviations away from the rest of the rooks. I’d rather have a QB who’s instinct is to throw first, rather than make one read and tuck it and run (Jayden Daniels/Justin Fields- at times).
What is now not up for debate, is that Penix has the physical capacity to be very mobile. His small shifting in the pocket mobility is excellent already. I have to think developing the “oh shoot” tuck and run last resort can’t be but so hard to coach up. It’s fight or flight, sympathetic nervous system.

[VikingsVictorious]

If I were drafting a QB based on nothing other than appearance Drake Maye would be "my guy" and it wouldn't be close.

Such a physical specimen.

[BeforeIDie]

If I were drafting a QB based on nothing other than appearance Drake Maye would be "my guy" and it wouldn't be close.

Such a physical specimen.

Or most likely to be cast as Superman. I like Maye, just nervous about 3 or 4 FRP’s for him. And every time I see Dan Orlovsky “weighing in” on TV I start laughing. Can’t help it. Like, ok mr handsome fresh haircut, member that time you pissed your pants and forgot you were playing QB in the NFL running from Jared. I have that picture hanging on my wall. Jared with his arms up laughing while Orlovsky is 4 yards out of the back of the end zone with the ball still tucked as though he might throw it… HAHAHAHAHA

[CharVike]

I looked at JJM and Penix worst games just to see what they looked like when things fell. JJM was terrible against Bowling Green and the only thing that saved him was being a 40 point favorite which is a joke. In this game BG got a ton of pressure on JJM with some plays guys running free at him. He'll get that with us. He didn't handle it at all. Some plays he couldn't escape and took huge loss sacks. He needs to throw it away. He missed a guy wide open for and easy long TD because he threw a lazer and over shot him. Zero loft on the ball. He had under throws and over throws Still an easy win. Michigan has a nice TE Loveland who is only 19 YO. He moves like a WR and can stretch for the ball. Long arms.
For Penix it was AZ state. Talk about throwing the ball all over the place. Most balls sailed high. Plus his delivery looked weird. and had balls batted at the LOS. Looks like he throws with a 3/4 arm angle. Never fully extended. Threw the same sideline dump off to both sides of the field many times. They won on an 80+ yard interception return. Penix committed four turnovers -- two interceptions and two fumbles -- while accounting for zero touchdowns against an Arizona State defense that allows more than 28 points per game. He also hit on 27 of his 42 pass attempts, which stands as his second-worst completion rate of the season.Oct 22, 2023. In the end it's talk how Penix can't handle pressure which is true but JJM don't handle it very well either at times. Pressure gets them all.
Watching the highlights is good but the bad games show flaws and what caused them. The position is extremely hard and every QB has bad games. It don't take much to be off. JJM got himself on track some but that wasn't even a game it was a live practice session. Penix never got on track but he was playing in a real game which makes it tougher. Based on those 2 games I don't see how either can be considered a 1st rounder. But that's the NFL. Every needed team is looking for the quick fix. There's no quick fix. The Bears might have the guy but they have been building for 3 years now under Poles and he has made some nice moves like getting the 1st pick this year. Being thrown in day 1 it might look ugly for Caleb. Looking for the quick fix is the wrong approach. We've been caught in that for decades. I expect 41 YO Farve wait I mean Rodgers in camp next year. History repeats itself again.
Farve saved Chilly after his overdraft by rounds of TJack. KOC might need a guy to save him from ????.

[VikingLord]

I looked at JJM and Penix worst games just to see what they looked like when things fell. JJM was terrible against Bowling Green and the only thing that saved him was being a 40 point favorite which is a joke. In this game BG got a ton of pressure on JJM with some plays guys running free at him. He'll get that with us. He didn't handle it at all. Some plays he couldn't escape and took huge loss sacks. He needs to throw it away. He missed a guy wide open for and easy long TD because he threw a lazer and over shot him. Zero loft on the ball. He had under throws and over throws Still an easy win. Michigan has a nice TE Loveland who is only 19 YO. He moves like a WR and can stretch for the ball. Long arms.
For Penix it was AZ state. Talk about throwing the ball all over the place. Most balls sailed high. Plus his delivery looked weird. and had balls batted at the LOS. Looks like he throws with a 3/4 arm angle. Never fully extended. Threw the same sideline dump off to both sides of the field many times. They won on an 80+ yard interception return. Penix committed four turnovers -- two interceptions and two fumbles -- while accounting for zero touchdowns against an Arizona State defense that allows more than 28 points per game. He also hit on 27 of his 42 pass attempts, which stands as his second-worst completion rate of the season.Oct 22, 2023. In the end it's talk how Penix can't handle pressure which is true but JJM don't handle it very well either at times. Pressure gets them all.
Watching the highlights is good but the bad games show flaws and what caused them. The position is extremely hard and every QB has bad games. It don't take much to be off. JJM got himself on track some but that wasn't even a game it was a live practice session. Penix never got on track but he was playing in a real game which makes it tougher. Based on those 2 games I don't see how either can be considered a 1st rounder. But that's the NFL. Every needed team is looking for the quick fix. There's no quick fix. The Bears might have the guy but they have been building for 3 years now under Poles and he has made some nice moves like getting the 1st pick this year. Being thrown in day 1 it might look ugly for Caleb. Looking for the quick fix is the wrong approach. We've been caught in that for decades. I expect 41 YO Farve wait I mean Rodgers in camp next year. History repeats itself again.
Farve saved Chilly after his overdraft by rounds of TJack. KOC might need a guy to save him from ????.

Worst games are interesting to look at, but again, they don't tell the whole story because other factors could be at play.

For example, if the game you watched where Penix's throwing motion seemed off, maybe he was playing injured? I had heard he toughed out a portion of the season with a nagging injury. Maybe that affected his throwing motion in that game?

As for McCarthy's worst game, I think that underscores how young and relatively inexperienced he is. He's more of a true unknown heading into this draft, especially since he played QB on a very strong team and wasn't asked to be the difference-maker. McCarthy has Tim Tebow vibes to me. Great guy. Lots of character and leadership skills. Had success in a strong college program. But what stood out about Tebow was how rarely he made great plays. He was a great guy, but he lacked anything that truly differentiated him as a QB in terms of production and more importantly, his potential to develop beyond what he was as a college QB.

A guy who lacks those skills isn't doomed to failure as a pro. In fact, many guys like that go on to have decent careers. But they're not generally going to carry their respective teams to great heights. If they do succeed, more often than not it's because they're part of a great overall team, and so few of these highly drafted QBs end up on such teams. Much more physically gifted players have succumbed to the fate of being thrust into the limelight straight out of the gate.

The Vikings are honestly one of the best setups this year for a highly drafted rookie QB to find himself in. Darnold's presence means there is no immediate pressure to be a savior on a team in transition, but there is also still a real opportunity there to win the job if merited. Former NFL QB is the head coach and the QB coach is another former NFL QB. Great receivers to throw to and maybe learn from as well. It's more or less an ideal situation. Add the right rookie QB to the mix and it could end very well for everyone involved.

[CharVike]

I agree, Victorious. Would I like to see Penix bail out a LITTLE more often and extend the play or throw on the run? Yes. Truthfully, I’d like to see him truck a defender or get tackled by 3 guys and hop right back up. I have seen that from Maye and JJM. That Josh Allen size and durability. But the way Penix spins the ball is 2 standard deviations away from the rest of the rooks. I’d rather have a QB who’s instinct is to throw first, rather than make one read and tuck it and run (Jayden Daniels/Justin Fields- at times).
What is now not up for debate, is that Penix has the physical capacity to be very mobile. His small shifting in the pocket mobility is excellent already. I have to think developing the “oh shoot” tuck and run last resort can’t be but so hard to coach up. It’s fight or flight, sympathetic nervous system.

The one read then tuck and run will never work. Yes it provides some great excitement and puts a$$es in the seats and buying a bunch of things. The most successful I have seen was Steve Young. He won some SBs. But it took a long long time for him to figure out the passing game. He went through teams and leagues. Throwing a football effectively is very hard and takes support around you. I do think Jayden goes No 2. That will be an owners pick. Jayden can step in now. One look and then go. He can go with the best. But he's never been hit like he will get hit in the NFL. He's never seen the speed like the NFL. Plus he'll get the hits when passing. You can only take so much.