What did I just watch?

[Pondering Her Percy]

We fit better with the first group. Point differential doesn't mean ####. Wins do.

Here's something else to consider:

Vikes
@vikesinsider
The #Vikings have the largest 4th quarter point differential in the NFL, at +66.

Nice find! This doesnt surprise me though. This team has been absolutely deadly in the 4th quarter. I guess the question is, why? Why are they the best team in the NFL in the 4th quarter right now and struggle in other quarters? Not that it's a bad thing, it's a great thing they are so good when the game is on the line. But if I had to say anything I would say maybe urgency? If that is the case, I would have to say , "can we play with more urgency more often?!" Because we are really damn good when we do, on both sides of the ball.

[CharVike]

Yes, their defense is good, but to win you have to be able to score and to score you need a QB who can perform under pressure. Purdy looked good in his two stints so far, but it isn't uncommon for rookie QBs to look good in their first few starts because teams don't have any tape on them and their OC tends to dumb things down and keep them simple. You get a few quick scores and the defense plays strong and Purdy probably looked a lot better than he is.

For the record, this is what WalterFootball had to say about Purdy as a prospect before last year's draft (they had Purdy as their 7th rated QB prospect):

https://www.walterfootball.com/draft2022QB.php

I'm not saying Purdy can't pull off a series of performances like Nick Foles managed when he won the Superbowl with the Eagles. I'm just saying when push comes to shove and the 49ers are in a dogfight, that's when they'll find out if they've got a QB. Purdy hasn't been tested yet. Odds are good his first real test is going to come in a playoff game. The 49ers remaining schedule is moderately challenging with home games against the Commanders and Cardinals sandwiched around an away game with the Raiders. Those should provide some assessment of Purdy as a regular starter.

Not saying he won't pass those tests. Just that the 49ers have a HUGE question mark at QB right now, and it's extremely rare for teams to go deep into the postseason without at least solid QB play.

** Addendum to my post **

I read yesterday that in the history of the NFL no team has ever gone to a Superbowl with a 3rd string QB. And Brock Purdy is no ordinary 3rd string QB - he's a rookie 3rd string QB who was taken with the last pick in last year's draft.

Of course, if there were a year in the NFL where the impossible or never-done-before is going to happen or be done, this is probably that year, but the 49ers will have to win 3 games with Purdy under center to get to the Superbowl, much less win it. With DCs having plenty of tape on Purdy by that point, and with defenses that are generally fundamentally much better on playoff teams, San Fran will be looking at a very tall order to expect Purdy to take them deep into the playoffs.

Yes, the 49ers have a lot of great skill position players on offense for sure, and they have a defense that is probably the best in the NFL right now. That gives them a chance, but they're definitely going to test the theory that a team needs great QB play to win a Superbowl. Somebody is going to find a way to get inside the young QB's head, probably yet in the regular season. If Purdy's track record as a college QB follows him into the pros, we can expect to see a game or a couple of games where he struggles.

I agree with everything you just posted. Purdy is a huge ?. This will either be him taking them on a magical ride or him crashing to Earth and giving a game away. If we face that team with the fronts they have on both sides of the ball it will be a dog fight. Really their 3rd stringer might be a better pure passer than the other 2. Lance was going to play because of what they gave up. But the guy isn't close to being ready to play. He had a 48% completion rate. That can't be out there. Jimmy G is what he is. A leader and gamer but can also have some brutal moments. He helps Purdy. Their complete team is what worries me. They can carry a QB.

[J. Kapp 11]

How strange is the NFL?

Ifeadi Odenigbo had 2 TFLs, a sack and a blocked punt against his former team.

And the Colts just released him.

[Texas Vike]

How strange is the NFL?

Ifeadi Odenigbo had 2 TFLs, a sack and a blocked punt against his former team.

And the Colts just released him.

I saw that and wondered WTF is going on. How bizarre. My first thought is that there must be a character concern or other issue. It doesn't make sense otherwise. We should sign him to the PS, unless there is a genuine issue.

Edit to add: Looks like the Colts cut Ifeadi because he told the press that his end of the game strategy of not letting JJ get up on the 2nd to last play is something they had practiced.

Odenigbo stayed on top of Jefferson too long, drawing a flag, and later told reporters that he was doing what he’d been taught to do in situations with the clock running down against an opponent that no longer had timeouts.

“I was running to the ball, just pursuing it, and I thought Jefferson was going to run out of bounds. Then I saw him cut back in,” Odenigbo said in the locker room Saturday night. “I grabbed him from behind, and we’ve been told to, you know.”

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/n ... 745236007/

[Cliff]

Here's something else to consider:

Nice find! This doesnt surprise me though. This team has been absolutely deadly in the 4th quarter. I guess the question is, why? Why are they the best team in the NFL in the 4th quarter right now and struggle in other quarters? Not that it's a bad thing, it's a great thing they are so good when the game is on the line. But if I had to say anything I would say maybe urgency? If that is the case, I would have to say , "can we play with more urgency more often?!" Because we are really damn good when we do, on both sides of the ball.

Maybe their strategy is energy conservation like Muhammad Ali and the rope-a-dope. They come out and immediately try to score. That 7 sets the pace and that allows them to play bend-don't-break defense. The other team taking chunks here and there, wearing itself down, and then having to settle for field goals when they clamp down at the goal line. I'm not saying they're not "trying" but playing with the understanding that the plan is to conserve energy until the other team is tired and then let it out when they're at their weakest.

[Texas Vike]

Here's something else to consider:

Nice find! This doesnt surprise me though. This team has been absolutely deadly in the 4th quarter. I guess the question is, why? Why are they the best team in the NFL in the 4th quarter right now and struggle in other quarters? Not that it's a bad thing, it's a great thing they are so good when the game is on the line. But if I had to say anything I would say maybe urgency? If that is the case, I would have to say , "can we play with more urgency more often?!" Because we are really damn good when we do, on both sides of the ball.

Thanks. Yeah, I agree. I've posted the points differential data and raised some questions in this thread because ultimately the difference between a W and an L is literally point differential. Obviously, each game is a separate unit and a W requires 1 more PF than PA in that game. Given we are only +2 over 14 games with 11 of those being wins, this 4th quarter point differential kind of completes the picture a bit. I think urgency is part of that picture, as you note. Another part is risk exposure. We assume WAY more risk in the 4th when trailing and the circumstances mandate that. Urgency (and determination / desire) overlap here: when we HAVE to have points, it seems all 11 guys on the field are able to extract the best from themselves. KOC is a good leader, as are our captains. The communication among players and coaches is exceptional. Everyone is on the same page and is crystal clear on their mission and what must be done in crunch time. I think that is part of the magic of this team.

[J. Kapp 11]

Nice find! This doesnt surprise me though. This team has been absolutely deadly in the 4th quarter. I guess the question is, why? Why are they the best team in the NFL in the 4th quarter right now and struggle in other quarters? Not that it's a bad thing, it's a great thing they are so good when the game is on the line. But if I had to say anything I would say maybe urgency? If that is the case, I would have to say , "can we play with more urgency more often?!" Because we are really damn good when we do, on both sides of the ball.

Thanks. Yeah, I agree. I've posted the points differential data and raised some questions in this thread because ultimately the difference between a W and an L is literally point differential. Obviously, each game is a separate unit and a W requires 1 more PF than PA in that game. Given we are only +2 over 14 games with 11 of those being wins, this 4th quarter point differential kind of completes the picture a bit. I think urgency is part of that picture, as you note. Another part is risk exposure. We assume WAY more risk in the 4th when trailing and the circumstances mandate that. Urgency (and determination / desire) overlap here: when we HAVE to have points, it seems all 11 guys on the field are able to extract the best from themselves. KOC is a good leader, as are our captains. The communication among players and coaches is exceptional. Everyone is on the same page and is crystal clear on their mission and what must be done in crunch time. I think that is part of the magic of this team.

I listen to Purple Daily on SKOR North pretty frequently. (Note: I am NOT a sycophant, as I frequently get into knock-down, drag-out wrestling matches with Mackey on Twitter). On their Tuesday podcast, however, they had a really good conversation about analytics. I know we're talking about point differential here, but I think the thoughts are related.

Stuff like EPA and DVOA are PREDICTIVE. They're trying to assess what's going to happen before it happens. But they are pretty much USELESS after the fact. How else can Kirk Cousins have like the 18th-best EPA but also have 7 fourth-quarter comebacks? How can the Vikings be the 20th best offense per DVOA and the worst defense, yet be 11-3?

The only true barometer of a team AFTER the fact is its won-loss record. It's the old Parcells adage, you are what your record says you are. Maybe EPA says you won't win your next game, but the Minnesota Vikings have proven that predictive analytics aren't perfect. They're a measure of your overall PROCESS as a football team, but they can't measure the things you guys have been talking about ... heart, guts, leadership, etc.

The best point Mackey and Judd made was this: Wins and losses measure what has already happened, while predictive analytics are useful tools for how you want to improve the team in the future, whether that be the near future (this year) or the further future (next year and beyond).

And if anything is useless as an analytic, it's points differential. What does it say? How often you blow teams out? Who cares? When the playoffs come around, I seriously doubt the Eagles will be winning games by 3 touchdowns, no matter how good they are. How many times have we seen it? A team with a lot of blowout wins gets into the playoffs, and they don't know how to handle a tight game, so they lose. I would content the Vikings in 1998 are maybe the No. 1 example.

I keep saying it, and I'll continue until I'm blue in the face. The talking heads say we're lucky to have 10 wins by one score. I say those 10 close wins make us more of a threat in the playoffs. This team is battle-tested in the most difficult of circumstances. Down 10 on the road to the Commanders. Down 17 on the road to the Bills. Down 33 at halftime to the Colts. All wins. All driven by, as O'Connell says, "giving your best when your best is required." How many close wins do the Eagles have? How many close LOSSES does Dallas have?

I suppose it sounds like I've not only drunk the purple Kool-Aid, but I've pretty much emptied the reservoir. So be it. I like what this team is made of.

[VikingsVictorious]

We fit better with the first group. Point differential doesn't mean ####. Wins do.

Here's something else to consider:

Vikes
@vikesinsider
The #Vikings have the largest 4th quarter point differential in the NFL, at +66.

Thank you.

[Texas Vike]

Here's how it looked from Adam Thielen's perspective:

[Texas Vike]

It's snowing in Texas. Might as well watch some Vikings videos

[media]https://www.vikings.com/video/field-acc ... ts-week-15[/media]

[CharVike]

How strange is the NFL?

Ifeadi Odenigbo had 2 TFLs, a sack and a blocked punt against his former team.

And the Colts just released him.

I saw that and wondered WTF is going on. How bizarre. My first thought is that there must be a character concern or other issue. It doesn't make sense otherwise. We should sign him to the PS, unless there is a genuine issue.

Edit to add: Looks like the Colts cut Ifeadi because he told the press that his end of the game strategy of not letting JJ get up on the 2nd to last play is something they had practiced.

Odenigbo stayed on top of Jefferson too long, drawing a flag, and later told reporters that he was doing what he’d been taught to do in situations with the clock running down against an opponent that no longer had timeouts.

“I was running to the ball, just pursuing it, and I thought Jefferson was going to run out of bounds. Then I saw him cut back in,” Odenigbo said in the locker room Saturday night. “I grabbed him from behind, and we’ve been told to, you know.”

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/n ... 745236007/

It must be deeper than that quote. He played good for us and then boom gone. I would have no problem bringing him back. The guy has proven he can play good football. We need all the LBers/DE/?? combo players we can get. But I have no idea about his behavior behind the scenes. He must be doing some off the wall stuff to wear out his welcome wherever he goes. Lets face it teams will overlook things if the guy is a player. As they say no risk it no biscuit so bring him back.

[tzinc]

Sometimes you have a game where everything goes wrong that's a classic bad luck game although KOC compounded it with that dumb fake punt and another 4th. The pick 6 was on Reagor. The reason the team came back is Kirk engineered 5 TDs and a 2 PT Convert (a mini-TD) - there was no ST or DEF TDs to help him. He had the greatest 2nd half/OT in NFL history. He had drives of 50+ 60+ and two 70+ drives.
He is having one of the greatest clutch seasons in his clutch filled career getting the All Time Comeback is the cherry on top.