Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

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StumpHunter
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Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by StumpHunter »

With FAs dying down and the draft over with, we now have a pretty good idea of who the potential starting 22. There could be injuries or late signings/cuts before the season begins, but for the most part, we know who will be on the team Game 1.

That means we can also start projecting out offensive and defensive rankings based on the additions and subtractions this offseason. It is way too early for projecting wins and losses at this point, too much depends on how good our competition is, but I believe we should be able to get a good gage at the potential our offense and defense have, good or bad.

Defensive Projections (3rd in scoring efficiency in 2018):

Key Additions
A healthy Hughes

Subtractions that may hurt the Vikings in 2019 (helped the team with their play)
Richardson
Tom Johnson (very underrated)

Subtractions that will likely have no impact on 2019
Sendejo (Harris was better)


I will start with the defense because I think this is the easiest to project. IF Griffen comes back mentally healthy and the rest of the D remains healthy, this defense has a chance to be as good as last season. Griffen, in my opinion, is the difference maker this season, and the D will live and die by his ability to get after the QB. With Richardson and Johnson gone, and Stephen being more of a run stopper, if we don’t get more of a rush from Everson, our pass rush will be down significantly from last season.

Things go right projection: Top 5 in scoring for the 3rd straight season.
Things go wrong: 14th

I just don’t see a huge difference from last year to this year, with one exception: I don’t think they will start off as poorly as they did in 2018. They were really bad to start the season, and ended up top 3, mostly because Zimmer made some overly complicated changes that weren’t working. I don’t think he will do that again. Age might become a factor with Joseph, Smith, Rhodes and Griffen getting up there in years, but I think we have at least another year of good play out of those guys. They decline and the worst I see it getting is a decline to 2015 levels.

Offensive Projections (22nd in scoring efficiency in 2018):

Key Additions
Kline
Mattison
Smith Jr
Samia
Bradbury
Stefanski/Kubiak

Subtractions that may hurt the Vikings in 2019:
Murray
Sherels' punt returns

Subtractions that may be a positive for the Vikings in 2019:
Compton
Remmers


Offensively, there is a ton of room for improvement. Kubiak has a track record for coaching good offenses, and his addition alone has the potential to make the offense average (take them from 22nd to 16th). Bradbury should be an upgrade over Elf (he would almost have to be) and I believe LG will be an upgrade with either Elf or Samia over Compton. RG could very well be a push with Kline, but there is potential for improvement there as well. With an improved line and run game, that takes our offense from 16th to 10th. The difference makers will be Smith and Mattison. Murray was bad in short yardage last season, and the Vikings need a 4th option when teams take away Diggs and Theilen. If the two skill position rookies step up big, this could be a fun season.

Things go right projection: 9th in scoring
Things go wrong: 22nd again


Spielman has been absolutely horrible at finding oline in the draft, and I really have no reason to believe he suddenly figured out what college players project out to be good guards in the NFL with Samia. However, it would be very difficult to mess up drafting the clear consensus #1 Center in the draft, so Bradbury should be good. His addition alone should open things up in the run game, limiting the number of passes Cousins throws, and thus limiting the mistakes he can make. 3rd down conversions will be better with Mattison being big in short yardage, extending drives and possibly improving our red zone efficiency. All of that with the best WR tandem in the NFL and a good passing QB, should be enough to make this offense top 10. If Kline is not an upgrade, Elf doesn’t transition well to LG and if Rick continues to strikeout at guard with Samia, it will likely be 2018 all over again.
Last edited by StumpHunter on Fri May 10, 2019 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by PurpleMustReign »

I'd like to add a key subtraction: Marcus Sherels. He was a special teams beast, and I'm not just saying that because of his punt returning. Mike Priefer got a ton of praise for a lot of years for his special teams, and Sherels had a ton to do with that. Really, he was the only consistent factor in special teams play for many years.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by StumpHunter »

PurpleMustReign wrote: Thu May 09, 2019 10:04 pm I'd like to add a key subtraction: Marcus Sherels. He was a special teams beast, and I'm not just saying that because of his punt returning. Mike Priefer got a ton of praise for a lot of years for his special teams, and Sherels had a ton to do with that. Really, he was the only consistent factor in special teams play for many years.
I will add him to offensive key losses. He had a pretty big impact on starting field position.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by fiestavike »

StumpHunter wrote: Fri May 10, 2019 7:24 am
PurpleMustReign wrote: Thu May 09, 2019 10:04 pm I'd like to add a key subtraction: Marcus Sherels. He was a special teams beast, and I'm not just saying that because of his punt returning. Mike Priefer got a ton of praise for a lot of years for his special teams, and Sherels had a ton to do with that. Really, he was the only consistent factor in special teams play for many years.
I will add him to offensive key losses. He had a pretty big impact on starting field position.
Probably most importantly, he didn't make negative plays. We're going to see a couple of punt returns gone terribly wrong this year, and we'll all be missing Sherels in those moments.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by VikingLord »

StumpHunter wrote: Thu May 09, 2019 2:52 pm Things go right projection: 9th in scoring
Things go wrong: 22nd again
I liked your analysis, but I'd put the "right" projection higher, at around 5th for the following reasons:

- I think the OC will design the offense to play to Cousin's strengths more. Yeah, the offensive line woes caused a lot of problems for Cousins, but I also thought the overall offensive design didn't do much to help him and maximize his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Stefanski and Kubiak should find more creative ways to get the most out of Cousins, and any improvement in the offensive line consistency is going to just help that along.
- Cook will stay healthy. He had some bad luck in his rookie year, but by the end of last year he was ripping it up. If he stays on the field and gets better run blocking, watch out. His ability to get to the 2nd level and catch the ball creates exponential problems for a defensive coordinator provided Cousins is not consistently being put on his back on dropbacks.
- Fewer pick 6's and fumbles. This is related to the 1st bullet, but Cousins and the offense suffered almost historically bad luck last year with pick 6's and fumbles returned for scores. That alone doesn't affect offensive scoring except it creates more pressure on the offense to get the points back, which in turn can make them more one-dimensional, especially if it happens later in a game. Cousins showed better ball protection later in the season, had fewer passes batted down, and the offense overall seemed to do a better job of protecting the ball. If they can keep that up, it stands to reason they'll remain more balanced and put up more points of their own.
- Finally, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I think Irv Smith could be a real factor at TE. Rudolph had his moments, but he never really lived up to his potential to take advantage of the attention demanded by the Vikings WRs. Irv Smith could do that. He's a heck of an athlete who is going to create some matchup problems. Plus, he can block. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him become a regular target in the Vikings passing game in both the short and medium parts of the field. Could be an X factor that puts a lot more points on the board.

I just have no doubt at all that the Vikings are among the top teams at the skill positions on offense. That is across the board, from their WRs to their RB to their QB and possibly even their TE. What held them back last year should be at least heavily mitigated this year, the pressure will be off overall (few will predict them as a Superbowl favorite), and the new mix of coaches will shake things up. Mix in some better luck, and you've got the makings of a much improved scoring offense.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by StumpHunter »

VikingLord wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 9:02 pm
StumpHunter wrote: Thu May 09, 2019 2:52 pm Things go right projection: 9th in scoring
Things go wrong: 22nd again
I liked your analysis, but I'd put the "right" projection higher, at around 5th for the following reasons:

- I think the OC will design the offense to play to Cousin's strengths more. Yeah, the offensive line woes caused a lot of problems for Cousins, but I also thought the overall offensive design didn't do much to help him and maximize his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Stefanski and Kubiak should find more creative ways to get the most out of Cousins, and any improvement in the offensive line consistency is going to just help that along.
- Cook will stay healthy. He had some bad luck in his rookie year, but by the end of last year he was ripping it up. If he stays on the field and gets better run blocking, watch out. His ability to get to the 2nd level and catch the ball creates exponential problems for a defensive coordinator provided Cousins is not consistently being put on his back on dropbacks.
- Fewer pick 6's and fumbles. This is related to the 1st bullet, but Cousins and the offense suffered almost historically bad luck last year with pick 6's and fumbles returned for scores. That alone doesn't affect offensive scoring except it creates more pressure on the offense to get the points back, which in turn can make them more one-dimensional, especially if it happens later in a game. Cousins showed better ball protection later in the season, had fewer passes batted down, and the offense overall seemed to do a better job of protecting the ball. If they can keep that up, it stands to reason they'll remain more balanced and put up more points of their own.
- Finally, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I think Irv Smith could be a real factor at TE. Rudolph had his moments, but he never really lived up to his potential to take advantage of the attention demanded by the Vikings WRs. Irv Smith could do that. He's a heck of an athlete who is going to create some matchup problems. Plus, he can block. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him become a regular target in the Vikings passing game in both the short and medium parts of the field. Could be an X factor that puts a lot more points on the board.

I just have no doubt at all that the Vikings are among the top teams at the skill positions on offense. That is across the board, from their WRs to their RB to their QB and possibly even their TE. What held them back last year should be at least heavily mitigated this year, the pressure will be off overall (few will predict them as a Superbowl favorite), and the new mix of coaches will shake things up. Mix in some better luck, and you've got the makings of a much improved scoring offense.
I posted these stats somewhere before, but the pick sixes and fumbles returned for TDs have been consistent throughout Cousins career. To limit them, the Vikings need to limit his opportunities to make mistakes, which will mean a more conservative offense. That is why I don't want to go higher than 9th. That and our defense could keep us from needing to score a ton.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by mansquatch »

StumpHunter wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 9:15 pm
VikingLord wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 9:02 pm

I liked your analysis, but I'd put the "right" projection higher, at around 5th for the following reasons:

- I think the OC will design the offense to play to Cousin's strengths more. Yeah, the offensive line woes caused a lot of problems for Cousins, but I also thought the overall offensive design didn't do much to help him and maximize his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Stefanski and Kubiak should find more creative ways to get the most out of Cousins, and any improvement in the offensive line consistency is going to just help that along.
- Cook will stay healthy. He had some bad luck in his rookie year, but by the end of last year he was ripping it up. If he stays on the field and gets better run blocking, watch out. His ability to get to the 2nd level and catch the ball creates exponential problems for a defensive coordinator provided Cousins is not consistently being put on his back on dropbacks.
- Fewer pick 6's and fumbles. This is related to the 1st bullet, but Cousins and the offense suffered almost historically bad luck last year with pick 6's and fumbles returned for scores. That alone doesn't affect offensive scoring except it creates more pressure on the offense to get the points back, which in turn can make them more one-dimensional, especially if it happens later in a game. Cousins showed better ball protection later in the season, had fewer passes batted down, and the offense overall seemed to do a better job of protecting the ball. If they can keep that up, it stands to reason they'll remain more balanced and put up more points of their own.
- Finally, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I think Irv Smith could be a real factor at TE. Rudolph had his moments, but he never really lived up to his potential to take advantage of the attention demanded by the Vikings WRs. Irv Smith could do that. He's a heck of an athlete who is going to create some matchup problems. Plus, he can block. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him become a regular target in the Vikings passing game in both the short and medium parts of the field. Could be an X factor that puts a lot more points on the board.

I just have no doubt at all that the Vikings are among the top teams at the skill positions on offense. That is across the board, from their WRs to their RB to their QB and possibly even their TE. What held them back last year should be at least heavily mitigated this year, the pressure will be off overall (few will predict them as a Superbowl favorite), and the new mix of coaches will shake things up. Mix in some better luck, and you've got the makings of a much improved scoring offense.
I posted these stats somewhere before, but the pick sixes and fumbles returned for TDs have been consistent throughout Cousins career. To limit them, the Vikings need to limit his opportunities to make mistakes, which will mean a more conservative offense. That is why I don't want to go higher than 9th. That and our defense could keep us from needing to score a ton.
I think what you guys are referring to is "Volume" of offense. The defense hurt them early last year, it didn't get it's wake up call until after the Rams game. That should be better in 2019. The offense should be more balanced and with a defense not allowing scores to get run up, the offense shouldn't feel the pressure to score a bunch or be so lopsided like it was last year. JDF's game planning and general design of the offense also contributed to this. He was very much the "Pass 50x a game" OC. Stefanski/Kubiak are highly unlikely to follow a similar templates. (I suspect Zimmer will be more active in the Offense meetings this season.)

If the defense can get back to itself (not a big stretch) and Kubiak/Stefanski can get the offense back to something resembling 2017 form, then this team should be an elite club in the NFC. Keep in mind that 2017 was helmed by Cse Keenum who was buoyed by a rushing offense and the league's #1 Defense. Cousins will have a much higher ceiling as a QB than Keenum in a similar environment. The key is for the Vikings to (re)create that environment.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by fiestavike »

StumpHunter wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 9:15 pm
VikingLord wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 9:02 pm

I liked your analysis, but I'd put the "right" projection higher, at around 5th for the following reasons:

- I think the OC will design the offense to play to Cousin's strengths more. Yeah, the offensive line woes caused a lot of problems for Cousins, but I also thought the overall offensive design didn't do much to help him and maximize his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Stefanski and Kubiak should find more creative ways to get the most out of Cousins, and any improvement in the offensive line consistency is going to just help that along.
- Cook will stay healthy. He had some bad luck in his rookie year, but by the end of last year he was ripping it up. If he stays on the field and gets better run blocking, watch out. His ability to get to the 2nd level and catch the ball creates exponential problems for a defensive coordinator provided Cousins is not consistently being put on his back on dropbacks.
- Fewer pick 6's and fumbles. This is related to the 1st bullet, but Cousins and the offense suffered almost historically bad luck last year with pick 6's and fumbles returned for scores. That alone doesn't affect offensive scoring except it creates more pressure on the offense to get the points back, which in turn can make them more one-dimensional, especially if it happens later in a game. Cousins showed better ball protection later in the season, had fewer passes batted down, and the offense overall seemed to do a better job of protecting the ball. If they can keep that up, it stands to reason they'll remain more balanced and put up more points of their own.
- Finally, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I think Irv Smith could be a real factor at TE. Rudolph had his moments, but he never really lived up to his potential to take advantage of the attention demanded by the Vikings WRs. Irv Smith could do that. He's a heck of an athlete who is going to create some matchup problems. Plus, he can block. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him become a regular target in the Vikings passing game in both the short and medium parts of the field. Could be an X factor that puts a lot more points on the board.

I just have no doubt at all that the Vikings are among the top teams at the skill positions on offense. That is across the board, from their WRs to their RB to their QB and possibly even their TE. What held them back last year should be at least heavily mitigated this year, the pressure will be off overall (few will predict them as a Superbowl favorite), and the new mix of coaches will shake things up. Mix in some better luck, and you've got the makings of a much improved scoring offense.
I posted these stats somewhere before, but the pick sixes and fumbles returned for TDs have been consistent throughout Cousins career. To limit them, the Vikings need to limit his opportunities to make mistakes, which will mean a more conservative offense. That is why I don't want to go higher than 9th. That and our defense could keep us from needing to score a ton.
I agree. Kirk Cousin's best season is liable to look like his worst season to those who prioritize yards and TDs over efficiency. If things go according to plan this year, the people who liked Teddy will like Kirk, and the people who didn't like Teddy will really hate how much Kirk is getting paid to 'manage' the offense. 9th seems like realistic peak to me.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by VikingsVictorious »

fiestavike wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:49 pm
StumpHunter wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 9:15 pm
I posted these stats somewhere before, but the pick sixes and fumbles returned for TDs have been consistent throughout Cousins career. To limit them, the Vikings need to limit his opportunities to make mistakes, which will mean a more conservative offense. That is why I don't want to go higher than 9th. That and our defense could keep us from needing to score a ton.
I agree. Kirk Cousin's best season is liable to look like his worst season to those who prioritize yards and TDs over efficiency. If things go according to plan this year, the people who liked Teddy will like Kirk, and the people who didn't like Teddy will really hate how much Kirk is getting paid to 'manage' the offense. 9th seems like realistic peak to me.
Last season Cousins had Yards, TDs and Efficiency. The team simply didn't play well overall.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by StumpHunter »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 7:36 pm
fiestavike wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 2:49 pm

I agree. Kirk Cousin's best season is liable to look like his worst season to those who prioritize yards and TDs over efficiency. If things go according to plan this year, the people who liked Teddy will like Kirk, and the people who didn't like Teddy will really hate how much Kirk is getting paid to 'manage' the offense. 9th seems like realistic peak to me.
Last season Cousins had Yards, TDs and Efficiency. The team simply didn't play well overall.
He had yards and TDs, not sure what you mean by efficiency. The offense was near the bottom in scoring efficiency, bottom 10 in yards per driv, 3 and outs per drive and just generally was bad at moving the football.

In other words, those yards and TDs that looked good on paper didn't actually help the offense not suck.

That needs to change and a big part of that will be making Cousins a more efficient QB. A QB that sustains drives with smart play instead of ending them with bad decisions.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by VikingsVictorious »

StumpHunter wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 8:52 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 7:36 pm

Last season Cousins had Yards, TDs and Efficiency. The team simply didn't play well overall.
He had yards and TDs, not sure what you mean by efficiency. The offense was near the bottom in scoring efficiency, bottom 10 in yards per driv, 3 and outs per drive and just generally was bad at moving the football.

In other words, those yards and TDs that looked good on paper didn't actually help the offense not suck.

That needs to change and a big part of that will be making Cousins a more efficient QB. A QB that sustains drives with smart play instead of ending them with bad decisions.
What I mean by efficiency is 4300 yards 30 TDs on 70% completions with only 10 INTs. He threw the 4th most passes, but was tied for 22nd in least interceptions. He did have one of the lowest YPA, but IMO he was still very efficient. Factor in that he was under pressure from the second the ball was snapped on half of his drop backs his performance was almost miraculous. Is it his fault we had no running game at all? That is the reason for the negative stats you posted.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by StumpHunter »

VikingsVictorious wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 7:50 am
StumpHunter wrote: Thu May 16, 2019 8:52 pm
He had yards and TDs, not sure what you mean by efficiency. The offense was near the bottom in scoring efficiency, bottom 10 in yards per driv, 3 and outs per drive and just generally was bad at moving the football.

In other words, those yards and TDs that looked good on paper didn't actually help the offense not suck.

That needs to change and a big part of that will be making Cousins a more efficient QB. A QB that sustains drives with smart play instead of ending them with bad decisions.
What I mean by efficiency is 4300 yards 30 TDs on 70% completions with only 10 INTs. He threw the 4th most passes, but was tied for 22nd in least interceptions. He did have one of the lowest YPA, but IMO he was still very efficient. Factor in that he was under pressure from the second the ball was snapped on half of his drop backs his performance was almost miraculous. Is it his fault we had no running game at all? That is the reason for the negative stats you posted.
Again, where is the efficiency? He threw a lot and because of that had a lot of yards and TDs. That isn't efficiency, that is volume.

I would be careful bringing up turnovers as a defense of Cousins play btw. He was top 5 in turning the ball over in 2018 when you include his fumbles. He was awful at protecting the football.

Those number I brought up are the result of Cousins being awful on 3rd down, a down that is generally a passing down unless you have 3rd and 1 or 2. Despite one of the shortest yards to gain on 3rd down, Cousins was one of the worst QBs in the NFL at getting firsts. A trend that is a carryover from what he did in 2017. It could be he needs a great line to be successful on 3rd down, but what I am worried about is that teams figured out what he likes to do on 3rd, and are taking it away.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by mansquatch »

Last I checked the QB doesn't call all the plays. Volume of Offense and Run vs. Pass has a lot to do with the Playcaller and Game Planner . Additionally, flow of the game will have an impact. if the Defense isn't playing well it will necessitate more passing. Also, if you have a game where the opponent goes up late, that also encourages passing due to the need to score in a hurry. These factors have to be considered when looking at the body of work for a season, you can't just assume the stats are all on the QB even if ESPN tells you to.

JDF is partially responsible for Cousin's stat line in 2018. Game plan against Buffalo in particular was atrocious. Ditto on the games vs. NE and SEA. No he didn't make Cousins fumble the ball or throw INTs. But if he puts the QB in a bad spot and then the QB makes mistakes it is silly to blame just the QB.

I think people are forgetting what this club did in 2017. We have almost the exact same defense as that season. Maybe better in that our secondary has more experience. If that side of the ball can get back to consistency (A trend we saw in the latter half of 2018) then there will be less pressure on the offense. Kubiak and Stefanski are by every indication going to emphasize the running game. Zimmer has also made his preferences on this topic quite clear. These two facts both point toward a reduced emphasis on the passing game. This is a great place for a QB to be in. Keenum was able to flourish in such a scenario. IMO Cousins is better than Keenum, so he too should be able to have an outstanding season.

As I said before. If this team can get back to itself on Defense and Kubiak and Stefanski can be an effective offensive coaching tandem then this team is easily in the top 3 of the NFC. Barring injury, this team should be in the hunt for a playoff bye week.
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

StumpHunter wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 9:01 am

I would be careful bringing up turnovers as a defense of Cousins play btw. He was top 5 in turning the ball over in 2018 when you include his fumbles. He was awful at protecting the football.
I dont want to get deep into Cousins talk again but I will say, this "fumble" stat that some like to bark about is a little overblown. Let's just say the ball didnt quite bounce our way when Cousins fumbled. He was tied for 10th most fumbles in the NFL with 9. The guys ahead of him or tied with him:

Lamar Jackson- 15
Jared Goff- 14
Derek Carr- 12
Dak Prescott- 12
Pat Mahomes- 11
Case Keenum- 11
Matt Ryan- 10
Russell Wilson- 10
Josh Rosen- 10
Deshaun Watson- 9
Carson Wentz- 9
Marcus Mariota- 9
Kirk Cousins- 9

Just picking 3 random QBs, Mahomes had 11 fumbles but only lost 2. Wilson had 10 fumbles and only lost 2. Keenum had 11 fumbles and only lost 2. Cousins had 9 fumbles and lost 7. I mean even Jared Goff who nearly led the league in fumbles and had 5 more fumbles than Cousins only lost 5 of 14 fumbles. So given that the ball didnt really bounce our way in those situations it makes Cousins' turnover numbers when you bunch them together look way worse. When really, he was somewhat on par with fumbles compared to other starting NFL QBs. If he's "horrible at protecting the football", then what is Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Jared Goff, etc? Extra horrible?

If Cousins was toward the top of the league in fumbles and had like 14+ and lost 7+, then you have an argument. That would show that he fumbles more than most QBs and it's resulting in a lot of TO's. But that wasnt the case. Those guys had a considerable amount more than Cousins did but their "total turnover numbers" werent as high because their teams recovered the football more than ours did when it comes down to it. It's just bad luck if you ask me when it comes to Cousins. If he had 9 fumbles but only lost 2 or 3, we wouldnt even be discussing this. Just like nobody discusses Mahomes or Russell Wilsons fumbles. Not making excuses, this is just the reality of it. Think about it, our recovery rate when Cousins fumbled was about 22%. KC's was 82%. Seattles was 80%. Denvers was 82%. Even Goff with 14 fumbles, was 64%. Our was 22%!! That's very rare. It's not like Cousins fumbled a certain way or something. A fumble is a fumble. Inside the pocket, outside the pocket, a fumble is never a good thing. The closest recovery rate to Cousins was the Eagles and Wentz at 33%. His fumble stats were almost identical to Cousins. 9 fumbles, 6 lost. Cousins was 9 and 7 lost. Has anyone barked about Wentz's fumbling? Not that I've heard. I mean if you look at the 4 years Cousins has been an NFL starter, he's had:

2018: 9 fumbles (7 lost)
2017: 13 fumbles (5 lost)
2016: 9 fumbles (3 lost)
2015: 9 fumbles (3 lost)

Given the one high year in 2017, it's fairly consistent. Yet this past year was still far and away the most lost he's had.

And here is where the true tell is......

When you look at those same QBs above and figure their fumble rate per pass attempts they are as follows (in order from best to worst):
Kirk Cousins- Every 67.3 passing attempts he fumbles
Matt Ryan- Every 60.8 attempts
Deshaun Watson- Every 56.1 attempts
Case Keenum- Every 53.3 attempts
Pat Mahomes- Every 52.7 attempts
Derek Carr- Every 46.1 attempts
Carson Wentz- Every 44.6 attempts
Dak Prescott- Every 43.8 attempts
Russell Wilson- Every 42.7 attempts
Jared Goff- Every 40.1 attempts
Josh Rosen- Every 39.3 attempts
Marcus Mariota- Every 36.7 attempts
Lamar Jackson- Every 11.3 attempts


....and that's just that group of QBs. I could dig deeper and he's still going to be in the top 10 in the league. So saying he's "horrible at protecting the football", now that I've dug deeper into it, is completely false. He was actually fairly good at it last year given how much he threw the ball and how bad his OL was.

Him losing 7 fumbles is such an easy stat to jump all over but when you lay out everything like I just did, it came down to bad luck. You were simply going off of the eye test and a stat line. And you thought it helped your argument when in the end, it didnt. Losing 7 fumbles out of 9 on the year is A LOT and very rare. Twice before in Washington he had 9 fumbles but only lost 3. The ball just didnt bounce our way this year. But either way, he's far from "horrible" protecting the football. Everything I posted above proves that.
Last edited by Pondering Her Percy on Fri May 17, 2019 11:36 am, edited 7 times in total.
The saddest thing in life is wasted talent and the choices you make will shape your life forever.
-Chazz Palminteri
Pondering Her Percy
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Re: Post Draft Offensive and Defensive Projections

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

mansquatch wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 9:21 am Last I checked the QB doesn't call all the plays.

JDF is partially responsible for Cousin's stat line in 2018. Game plan against Buffalo in particular was atrocious. Ditto on the games vs. NE and SEA. No he didn't make Cousins fumble the ball or throw INTs. But if he puts the QB in a bad spot and then the QB makes mistakes it is silly to blame just the QB.
This.
The saddest thing in life is wasted talent and the choices you make will shape your life forever.
-Chazz Palminteri
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