2018 Offense Autopsy Redux - What really went wrong?

[Pondering Her Percy]

VikingLord, I think you missed the main thrust of my post which was that the COACHING also changed, and in the case of OL, the change occured in about the most traumatic way possible. IMO, this was the main variable that ultimately lead to the decrease in offensive efficacy. Your post commits the very error that caused me to make this thread. The players do not exist in a vacuum. The coaches scheme and use them and that contributes to their performance. If you do not believe me then ask Jared Goff if he'd prefer that Jeff Fisher was still his HC. (Just as one example...)

So to that end I would say this: In hiring Kubiak they are addressing the OL issues. They are just not doing it with players.

100% agree. You are a fan that truly looks into why things arent going our way like I do. I have said that coaching was arguably the biggest change and the main thing that caused our offense to dip. Losing Sporano in a tragedy and losing Shurmur to NY was 50x more damaging than anything else on this team that happened.

Also there have been some disagreements on Keenum vs. Cousins and my view that Cousins was a clear upgrade. To be blunt: I stand by my conclusion. Cousins is a superior passer to Keenum. If Keenum was so great, then how come Denver jettisoned him this year after only one season? He couldn't give them competitive QB play despite having a very strong running game behind Lindsey. Cousins gave us 4000 passing yards despite an OC that for the most part couldn't figure out how to incorporate a rushing attack. I humbly sumbit that if you put Keenum in that scenario you'd end up with a 20+ INT season. (People seem to conveinently forget the 2-5 passes a game Keenum would put up in 2017 where you'd be like WTF WAS THAT!?!?!? In 2018 he regressed to his mean) However, back to my main point: Why are we in the situation of an over loaded passing game in the first place? Answer: Because the OC called those plays. Quite visibly against his HC's wishes I might add.

Also 100% agree. I've said that in a few posts recently that if you're throwing Keenum 45 times a game, it would be a freaking disaster. Cousins is such a better pure QB than Keenum is. It's not even close IMO. The difference is the 2017 offense relied on balance in both the passing game and running game. Also, the OL was much better. In 2018, this offense relied on Kirk Cousins to win them games week in and week out. That's not who Kirk is. He's a damn good QB but he isnt that type of QB. He needs balance no different than what Keenum had. And he never got that. It's like Flip was screaming, "KIRK SAVE US". I say it all the time but nobody can sit there and tell me we CANT run the ball with Cook and Murray. They are too good to not be able to run the ball. Sure, our OL will suck at times but it was completely bailed on by Flip. We can be 7th in the NFL in rushing in 2017 with Murray and McKinnon but 30th in the NFL in rushing with Cook and Murray. That makes zero sense. Remmers and Compton were not THAT much worse run blocking than Berger and Easton. They were worse, but not 7th down to 30th worse. Flip was an absolute train wreck and tried to turn Kirk Cousins into something he was not. I'd love to see Cousins in a balanced offense. That has a good rushing attack and good passing game with even average blocking. There was always something drastically missing on Cousins's teams since becoming a full time starter. In 2015 he had zero run game and the 28th ranked defense, in 2016 he had a below average run game and the 28th ranked defense, in 2017 he had a terrible running game and terrible OL and then in 2018, we're thinking he's going into a gold mine, and he has zero run game and a terrible OL. It was his responsibility to do everything for that offense. Just like it was for 3 years in Washington. I truly believe Kubiak and Stefanski balance this offense out and improve this OL more than people think. I think this will be a good year for our offense.

[quoteI challenge the detractors in here. Rather than just hammer on your pet peeve of Cousins or the OL, why not challenge my idea? Why wasn't the offensive coaching a major factor? Why didn't losing Tony Sprano just before Trianing Camp contribute to the OL being dysfunctional? Why didn't JDF's game planning and play calling put the offense in a bad place?
[/quote]

Oh trust me, you wont get much challenging there. Been there done that and in turn I guess I just "make up excuses for Cousins" when in the end there are no excuses, it's simply reality. Not just looking at a record or a stat line for a game and say he sucks. You and I look at the big picture and look at the team as a whole, including Kirk.

[VikingLord]

Also there have been some disagreements on Keenum vs. Cousins and my view that Cousins was a clear upgrade. To be blunt: I stand by my conclusion. Cousins is a superior passer to Keenum. If Keenum was so great, then how come Denver jettisoned him this year after only one season?

So you lay the blame for the performance of the 2018 Vikings offense at the feet of the offensive coaching staff? Not the players on the field? Not the muffed catches in critical situations? Not the QB fumbles? Not the pick-sixes thrown by Cousins (some of which were directly attributable to the aforementioned muffed catches)? How about the critical missed field goals? Are those on the coaches too?

To be clear, I am NOT claiming the coaching situation bears no responsibility for the performance, but I remember Bud Grant's words about great coaches needing great players, and while your original post attempts to call out the contribution of coaching to the result, for me it is impossible to lay more than a quarter of that result at the feet of the coaches. The Vikings had horrible, inconsistent offensive line play all year. That affected their ability to run the ball consistently all year. They really relied on Cook and Murray to have to beat the first tackler to gain any consistent yardage. Against the better defensive fronts, that rarely happened. It wasn't because they didn't try it enough - they literally couldn't do it, coaches or not. And then, on top of that, you have a far less mobile QB who is overall unwilling to take risks behind center. He's a better pure passer than Keenum. Nobody is arguing that (I think). But no way can you claim that putting a more immobile, risk-averse passer behind that offensive line can be compensated for with coaching or even playcalling.

(People seem to conveinently forget the 2-5 passes a game Keenum would put up in 2017 where you'd be like WTF WAS THAT!?!?!? In 2018 he regressed to his mean) However, back to my main point: Why are we in the situation of an over loaded passing game in the first place? Answer: Because the OC called those plays. Quite visibly against his HC's wishes I might add.

I humbly submit that the tendency of Keenum to lob those WTF passes is one of the main reasons why the Vikings ended up in the NFC Championship game instead of 8-7 and out of the playoffs. Those weren't coached throws, either. Keenum was usually scrambling at those points because he was under pressure and he lobbed them up and gave his WRs a chance to make the play, which, IIRC, Theilen and Diggs converted more often than not.

But once again, you really think that *coaching* was why the Vikings couldn't consistently run the ball? You place little or no blame for that on the offensive linemen and/or GM who had those linemen on the team in the first place?

In the games I watched, the offensive line was inconsistent, broken down relatively easily (especially the interior), and largely ineffective at opening holes. If I was JDF and I didn't have confidence in the ability of the OL players to run block, I'd shy away from calling running plays too. No matter how much the head coach wished it, because he has eyes and can watch the tape as well as me.

I challenge the detractors in here. Rather than just hammer on your pet peeve of Cousins or the OL, why not challenge my idea? Why wasn't the offensive coaching a major factor? Why didn't losing Tony Sprano just before Trianing Camp contribute to the OL being dysfunctional? Why didn't JDF's game planning and play calling put the offense in a bad place?

Look, first off, I'm not bashing Cousins. I like the Cousins signing. I think he's better than Keenum as a QB. I just think in order to get the most out of him, the Vikings offensive line has to be a LOT better than it was in either 2017 or 2018.

Second, what qualifies as a "major factor" to you? I'd put the contribution of coaching last year to the struggles of the offense at no more than 25%. Coaches don't muff catches. They don't throw pick sixes. They don't miss field goals. They don't commit holding penalties on a converted 3rd-and-long. They can't will competence out of incompetent or injured players.

I'll tack on another 10% to the GM for some of the personnel moves that were or weren't made during the last offseason. That is only 10% because the Vikings were hit with some injuries post-draft that, had they not been a factor, made the decisions that were made a little more understandable.

So I'd put the overall coaching/GM contribution at 35%. That could be considered "major". It's certainly not insignificant.

I'd still lay the majority of the blame on the players, though, and to be more precise in the case of Cousins, on the lack of fit between his style and tendencies which results in the need for much better offensive line play than he had.

[CharVike]

Stump, in 2018 the only things that changed were OC, OL C, LG/RG/RT, and QB. IMO we got better at QB. I do not find it persuasive that the OL personnel changes alone were enough to both offset the improvement at QB and drag down our overall efficacy. I said it during the season as well, the driver was the coaching, specifically the OC. So to me, if you fix the coaching then you should expect improvement on the field.

.

Yeah, Cousins HUGE 8 win season was so much better then his predecessor's
lol.

Just state that Case is much better than Kirk and be done with it. Yes Case's exceptional play gave us a home playoff win. No other player or other things had anything to do with it. Thing is when the playoffs started with Case most analyst weren't talking great about. one of the best teams. They knew more than I about the team.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Yeah, Cousins HUGE 8 win season was so much better then his predecessor's
lol.

Just state that Case is much better than Kirk and be done with it. Yes Case's exceptional play gave us a home playoff win. No other player or other things had anything to do with it. Thing is when the playoffs started with Case most analyst weren't talking great about. one of the best teams. They knew more than I about the team.

That’s just him simply ignoring everything other than record and determining who was a better QB. Case Keenum had the same amount of wins as Aaron Rodgers did this year. Must mean case is just as good lol. He keeps saying the same thing, record this and record that.....it has zero relevance. The best QB in the game won 6 games this year. Dak Prescott had more wins than Big Ben and made the playoffs...must mean he’s better than Big Ben. I can keep going. Record literally means nothing. It’s about how the team performs, not a player. But he’ll never get that. He’ll just continue to forever be a Kirk hater and when he plays well, it will be nothing but silence.

[PurpleKoolaid]

Just state that Case is much better than Kirk and be done with it. Yes Case's exceptional play gave us a home playoff win. No other player or other things had anything to do with it. Thing is when the playoffs started with Case most analyst weren't talking great about. one of the best teams. They knew more than I about the team.

That’s just him simply ignoring everything other than record and determining who was a better QB. Case Keenum had the same amount of wins as Aaron Rodgers did this year. Must mean case is just as good lol. He keeps saying the same thing, record this and record that.....it has zero relevance. The best QB in the game won 6 games this year. Dak Prescott had more wins than Big Ben and made the playoffs...must mean he’s better than Big Ben. I can keep going. Record literally means nothing. It’s about how the team performs, not a player. But he’ll never get that. He’ll just continue to forever be a Kirk hater and when he plays well, it will be nothing but silence.

My heavens, you are one obsessed guy when it comes to Case aernt you. He isnt even a Vikings and hes all you think about, when you aernt praising Kirk, even though the ONLY thing praiseworthy about him is his contract, handed by a hopefully has been GM next season.

[StumpHunter]

Just state that Case is much better than Kirk and be done with it. Yes Case's exceptional play gave us a home playoff win. No other player or other things had anything to do with it. Thing is when the playoffs started with Case most analyst weren't talking great about. one of the best teams. They knew more than I about the team.

That’s just him simply ignoring everything other than record and determining who was a better QB. Case Keenum had the same amount of wins as Aaron Rodgers did this year. Must mean case is just as good lol. He keeps saying the same thing, record this and record that.....it has zero relevance. The best QB in the game won 6 games this year. Dak Prescott had more wins than Big Ben and made the playoffs...must mean he’s better than Big Ben. I can keep going. Record literally means nothing. It’s about how the team performs, not a player. But he’ll never get that. He’ll just continue to forever be a Kirk hater and when he plays well, it will be nothing but silence.

Big Ben and Rodgers have a history of being SB winning QBs and rarely missing the playoffs. They are also on different teams with different challenges than Dak, Case and Cousins faced. Even with these two QBs though, some of the challenges were brought on by themselves. It is looking more and more like Big Ben is a complete POS on and off the field, creating chaos in the locker room, and it is my opinion Rodgers lost games towards the end of the season to get his coach fired(and that he is also a POS).

The Vikings weren't a bad team last year. They weren't a horribly coached team last year. There is certainly room for improvement in both talent on the line and coaching, but they were a team that Aaron Rodgers has competing for, if not winning a SB and that Kirk Cousins had going 8-7-1. In the end, that IS all that matters. That our QB is that big of a drop-off from some of the best in the league.

[mansquatch]

Just to clarify, this post is quite clearly about the offense. Not all of the 8-7-1 season was on the offensive coaching staff, nor did I say it was. However, if you watched all the games then you know that the MAJORITY of our issues were on the offensive side of the ball.

That being said, I stand by my conclusion that most of the offensive problems were due to bad coaching decisions. And yes, muffed catches, bad QB performance, sacks, etc can be placed on coaching. If the coaches are fielding a poor interior OL (they were) and they start calling tons of medium to deep passes when said OL can't maintain a pocket, then that is on those coaches for not calling a better game plan.

Another example was the NE loss. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew BB was going to take away Diggs and Thielen. JDF couldn't come up with a way to make the game about Rudolph or Dalvin Cook. Then the very next week SEA basically copied the BB template and JDF still didn't have an answer. That is bad coaching.

[CharVike]

Just to clarify, this post is quite clearly about the offense. Not all of the 8-7-1 season was on the offensive coaching staff, nor did I say it was. However, if you watched all the games then you know that the MAJORITY of our issues were on the offensive side of the ball.

That being said, I stand by my conclusion that most of the offensive problems were due to bad coaching decisions. And yes, muffed catches, bad QB performance, sacks, etc can be placed on coaching. If the coaches are fielding a poor interior OL (they were) and they start calling tons of medium to deep passes when said OL can't maintain a pocket, then that is on those coaches for not calling a better game plan.

Another example was the NE loss. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew BB was going to take away Diggs and Thielen. JDF couldn't come up with a way to make the game about Rudolph or Dalvin Cook. Then the very next week SEA basically copied the BB template and JDF still didn't have an answer. That is bad coaching.

We lack weapons on offense. Zero at TE hurts big time. Better off using 3 WRs but we lack that. Our 3rd guy shouldn't be on a roster. We need a stud at WR and then one of the other two becomes the slot guy. Cook is a good back but the defense can stack the line because we have no deep threat at WR or TE. Yes AT and Diggs are good but they aren't in the same class as the guy Big Ben had. But JDE was a complete waste. Never even tried to run the ball. Yes our O wasn't great about the same as with Case based on overall stats. But with Case we had no chance of beating a good team. Couldn't score. Even the playoff win the O didn't do much. And then Shurmur couldn't even get them to show up the following week. including AT and Diggs. To much faith in that 13-3 team when everything broke right and we stayed healthy. Take Griff and Rhodes off that team like what happened last season. As I said before even the football analyst didn't give us any respect. They knew it was a smoke job. I think if the Saints didn't lose by a miracle they would at least show up for the champ game. We lacked the talent level and Shurmur milked everything out of it that he could. That's why the bum Case was sent packing. Rick was smarter than Elway. As for the NE loss they were playing with us. Brady could score anytime he wanted. The didn't run it up on us. Our D was over matched. By Brady and the run game.

[Pondering Her Percy]

That’s just him simply ignoring everything other than record and determining who was a better QB. Case Keenum had the same amount of wins as Aaron Rodgers did this year. Must mean case is just as good lol. He keeps saying the same thing, record this and record that.....it has zero relevance. The best QB in the game won 6 games this year. Dak Prescott had more wins than Big Ben and made the playoffs...must mean he’s better than Big Ben. I can keep going. Record literally means nothing. It’s about how the team performs, not a player. But he’ll never get that. He’ll just continue to forever be a Kirk hater and when he plays well, it will be nothing but silence.

My heavens, you are one obsessed guy when it comes to Case aernt you. He isnt even a Vikings and hes all you think about, when you aernt praising Kirk, even though the ONLY thing praiseworthy about him is his contract, handed by a hopefully has been GM next season.

I dont understand why that is your only defense in this argument? CV brought him up after you mentioned that Cousins wasnt as good as his predecessor. So then I chime in and that means I'm obsessed with Case? When YOU brought it up? Makes total sense! But yeah I guess the only thing praiseworthy is his contract. He truly doesnt know how to throw a football. And Case had a way better record so that must mean he's better. That's how the NFL works!! Your logic behind true talent is truly laughable

[StumpHunter]

Just to clarify, this post is quite clearly about the offense. Not all of the 8-7-1 season was on the offensive coaching staff, nor did I say it was. However, if you watched all the games then you know that the MAJORITY of our issues were on the offensive side of the ball.

That being said, I stand by my conclusion that most of the offensive problems were due to bad coaching decisions. And yes, muffed catches, bad QB performance, sacks, etc can be placed on coaching. If the coaches are fielding a poor interior OL (they were) and they start calling tons of medium to deep passes when said OL can't maintain a pocket, then that is on those coaches for not calling a better game plan.

Another example was the NE loss. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew BB was going to take away Diggs and Thielen. JDF couldn't come up with a way to make the game about Rudolph or Dalvin Cook. Then the very next week SEA basically copied the BB template and JDF still didn't have an answer. That is bad coaching.

The Vikings had the 8th lowest air yards per attempt. That doesn't happen with a bunch of medium to deep passes called.

I agree that JDF got out coached by BB and Pete Carrol. Most OC's get out coached by those guys though. There was more to what BB did to the Vikings than just taking away Theilen and Diggs. They ran stunts up the middle, that our QB struggled to recognize and escape and our guards and center struggled to block. They disguised coverages to hide the fact that they were going to take away Diggs and Adam and caused our QB to struggle to get the ball out in time. I would think JDF could have called bootlegs and more run plays to overcome some of these issues, for sure. It seems so obvious that he should have, I can't imagine a professional coach, who knows a lot more than any of us, wouldn't have realized this, regardless of how bad some think he was. Yet he didn't do any of that. I wonder why?

[Pondering Her Percy]

Just to clarify, this post is quite clearly about the offense. Not all of the 8-7-1 season was on the offensive coaching staff, nor did I say it was. However, if you watched all the games then you know that the MAJORITY of our issues were on the offensive side of the ball.

That being said, I stand by my conclusion that most of the offensive problems were due to bad coaching decisions. And yes, muffed catches, bad QB performance, sacks, etc can be placed on coaching. If the coaches are fielding a poor interior OL (they were) and they start calling tons of medium to deep passes when said OL can't maintain a pocket, then that is on those coaches for not calling a better game plan.

Another example was the NE loss. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knew BB was going to take away Diggs and Thielen. JDF couldn't come up with a way to make the game about Rudolph or Dalvin Cook. Then the very next week SEA basically copied the BB template and JDF still didn't have an answer. That is bad coaching.

Exactly and you know whats sad about that NE game? Dalvin Cook was averaging 9.3 YPC. 9.3!!! And was handed the ball 9 fricken times. Why anyone is trying to defend Flip is beyond me. That is disgustingly bad coaching. Continuing to run Dalvin keeps the ball out of Brady's hands and keeps the game close. Instead, they throw Kirk 44 times and run Dalvin 9. Makes total sense...

And what did Belichick do? Not just "run stunts up the middle". He was blitzing from anywhere and everywhere. Why? Because it didnt matter how well our RB was doing, Flip was going to throw all game. They werent worried about Cook at all. That could be why he was averaging 9.3 YPC. BB knew our OL couldnt pass block. But yeah Kirk should have scrambled! He's not a scrambling QB!!!! Go re-watch his highlights. He scrambled and got away from pressure more often than you think but bottom line is, when you have two free runners coming at your face, you dont have many options. Did Peyton Manning scramble when he got two free runners coming at him? No he went down like a sack of potatoes. But for the most part, Peyton had elite OLs. Similar to Brady. Yeah they both had quick releases but Brady could sit back there and start a camp fire after he snapped the ball. There were way too many times where Cousins couldnt even get through his first read before guys were there.

[mansquatch]

If I look at our losses (and the tie) there are some obvious trends:

Tie vs. GB: Special Team disaster
Loss vs. LAR: Defense was terrible (Offense was actually very good in this game, Cousins was outstanding)
Loss vs. BUF: 1st half game plan on offense was a complete disaster
Loss vs. NO: 2 uncharacteristic mistakes by Diggs and Thielen cost us this game. Offense and Defense solid otherswise
1st Loss vs. CHI: Mistakes on offense, Offense couldn't get going in 1st half at all, Defense surrendered 13 points early. Joint effort of suck here. Will give JDF pass to some degree on this game, the Bears defense was tough on everyone last year.
Loss vs. NE: BB Owned JDF. Total game planning disaster
Loss vs. SEA: SEA copied NE Template, owned JDF
2nd loss vs. CHI: Not enough gas on offense, Defense eventually wore down

Last season was about early mistakes by each phase of the game in the first four weeks. After th

[mansquatch]

The Vikings had the 8th lowest air yards per attempt. That doesn't happen with a bunch of medium to deep passes called.

I agree that JDF got out coached by BB and Pete Carrol. Most OC's get out coached by those guys though. There was more to what BB did to the Vikings than just taking away Theilen and Diggs. They ran stunts up the middle, that our QB struggled to recognize and escape and our guards and center struggled to block. They disguised coverages to hide the fact that they were going to take away Diggs and Adam and caused our QB to struggle to get the ball out in time. I would think JDF could have called bootlegs and more run plays to overcome some of these issues, for sure. It seems so obvious that he should have, I can't imagine a professional coach, who knows a lot more than any of us, wouldn't have realized this, regardless of how bad some think he was. Yet he didn't do any of that. I wonder why?

Not entire true on your first point. They can throw to the check down on long developing plays. I would like to point out that Pat Shurmer was able to move the ball with some success using very quick short passes in 2016 with a worse group skill players. (No AP at RB and Thielen had yet to emerge) and a worse OL situation. To me it is hard to give JDF a pass just on interior OL issues. Yes it is a challenge, but he is buoyed by an elite defense. He just needs to hang out until the defense gets tired and then score when the D gets tired.

[StumpHunter]

No he went down like a sack of potatoes. But for the most part, Peyton had elite OLs. Similar to Brady. Yeah they both had quick releases but Brady could sit back there and start a camp fire after he snapped the ball. There were way too many times where Cousins couldnt even get through his first read before guys were there.

The fastest sack by the Pats occured 3.4 seconds after the ball was snapped, plenty of time to make multiple reads. Cousins also took more time to throw than Brady in that game on average. Maybe Brady could have lit a campfire after he snapped the ball, but based on his incredibly low time to throw, he feared our pass rush.

He's not a scrambling QB!!!!

He is not a QB who helps his line out at all. There are plenty of great QBs who weren't scrambling QBs, but every one of them helped out their line with their play. Whether from anticipating where a rush is coming from and moving the pocket to help their linemen have a better angle to block, or by getting rid of the ball quicker. Cousins doesn't scramble, doesn't get rid of the ball quickly and is just plain bad at avoiding pressure.

[Pondering Her Percy]

If I look at our losses (and the tie) there are some obvious trends:

Tie vs. GB: Special Team disaster
Loss vs. LAR: Defense was terrible (Offense was actually very good in this game, Cousins was outstanding)
Loss vs. BUF: 1st half game plan on offense was a complete disaster
Loss vs. NO: 2 uncharacteristic mistakes by Diggs and Thielen cost us this game. Offense and Defense solid otherswise
1st Loss vs. CHI: Mistakes on offense, Offense couldn't get going in 1st half at all, Defense surrendered 13 points early. Joint effort of suck here. Will give JDF pass to some degree on this game, the Bears defense was tough on everyone last year.
Loss vs. NE: BB Owned JDF. Total game planning disaster
Loss vs. SEA: SEA copied NE Template, owned JDF
2nd loss vs. CHI: Not enough gas on offense, Defense eventually wore down

Last season was about early mistakes by each phase of the game in the first four weeks.

^Exactly why I keep saying it's a team game. Glad you posted that because nobody seems to look into that. They just look at Cousins record to determine if he's a good QB or not. The point is, there were plenty of things that went wrong outside of Cousins having a few bad games. And that's what led to 8-7-1. Kirk Cousins wasnt the reason for that.