Rick Spielman, what should the Vikes do with him

[mansquatch]

I really have to wonder how much of this conversation would be different if they had cut Blair Walsh before training camp in July 2015? They probably would likely have gone to the divisional round of the playoffs last year, possibly the NFCCG. One guy, probably 3-4 losses become wins:

Game vs. DEN goes to OT, we possibly win it
SEA Playoff game, lost because of missed FG
First DET Game in 2016: Unable to overcome kicking woes
WSH game this season, played differently due to low confidence in kicker.

Now you can blame the mgmt for sticking with him, fine. That isn't what I'm getting at. This team IS competitive. They traded for Sam Bradford this season because they knew this roster had enough to make a run. At the time most folks agreed with the move. By week 4 it looked like total genius. Now suddenly everyone has decided we are no longer competitive. I agree, they can't overcome the injury load on offense.

Now folks are saying that isn't the issue. OK, so let's discount the injuries on offense.

So if we add back the RB, the QB, 3 OT, and 1 G, how many more wins does that net us this season? We are presently 6-6. The losses to WSH, DET x 2, and DAL were all by one score or less. Both DET games were lost on late scores and the DAL game we lost by 2 points. In all cases the opposing team succeeded in a late 4Q score and throughout each game our offense was unable to generate additional points. I would argue that in each of these cases having our 5 guys on offense back would swing the games in our favor since we'd be able to produce enough points to win. There is probably a case to be made that having AP completely changes the PHI and CHI games as well, but those were both blowouts so I will let them stand as bad performances.

If you change 3 of those losses to wins this roster is 9-3, playing with a LOT more confidence and leading the division. I think there is a realistic scenario that this team is 10-2 or 11-1 if those 5 are playing.

So how are we not competitive?

[mosscarter]

percy i must say you make it sound so simple. we need an offensive line and a running back? maybe an entire offensive line will fall out of the sky. and as far as a running back goes, which one of those did you have in mind because it clearly cannot be anyone on the roster except peterson. we already don't have a first round pick and if the plan is to keep peterson, how in the world will we afford patterson or anyone for help on the o-line? i know it is early with treadwell i'm simply pointing out the fact he hasn't shown anyone anything and has been on the field a great deal of snaps the last 3 games. there were many people who thought he was the best receiver in the draft, and many who said he should have been picked last out of the first round receivers.

[Mothman]

You have to wonder if a new GM would butt heads with Mike Zimmer, should he keep Zimmer around. Personally, I'd like to see Zimmer get at least a couple more years to see what he can do. Does that mean Spielman stays?

I suspect they're a package deal at this point.

Thing is, Jim, I keep wondering if the offensive struggles are due to a lack of foresight by Spielman or because a defensive-minded head coach thought a game manager QB, running game, and a small ball offense would work with a great defense. I don't know. Maybe I'm over-complicating the issue.

I don't think you're over-complicating it at all. The team's offensive issues are due to decisions made by both Spielman and Zimmer (among other reasons).

[Mothman]

I really have to wonder how much of this conversation would be different if they had cut Blair Walsh before training camp in July 2015? They probably would likely have gone to the divisional round of the playoffs last year, possibly the NFCCG. One guy, probably 3-4 losses become wins:

Game vs. DEN goes to OT, we possibly win it
SEA Playoff game, lost because of missed FG
First DET Game in 2016: Unable to overcome kicking woes
WSH game this season, played differently due to low confidence in kicker.

Now you can blame the mgmt for sticking with him, fine. That isn't what I'm getting at. This team IS competitive. They traded for Sam Bradford this season because they knew this roster had enough to make a run. At the time most folks agreed with the move. By week 4 it looked like total genius. Now suddenly everyone has decided we are no longer competitive. I agree, they can't overcome the injury load on offense.

Now folks are saying that isn't the issue. OK, so let's discount the injuries on offense.

So if we add back the RB, the QB, 3 OT, and 1 G, how many more wins does that net us this season? We are presently 6-6. The losses to WSH, DET x 2, and DAL were all by one score or less. Both DET games were lost on late scores and the DAL game we lost by 2 points. In all cases the opposing team succeeded in a late 4Q score and throughout each game our offense was unable to generate additional points. I would argue that in each of these cases having our 5 guys on offense back would swing the games in our favor since we'd be able to produce enough points to win. There is probably a case to be made that having AP completely changes the PHI and CHI games as well, but those were both blowouts so I will let them stand as bad performances.

If you change 3 of those losses to wins this roster is 9-3, playing with a LOT more confidence and leading the division. I think there is a realistic scenario that this team is 10-2 or 11-1 if those 5 are playing.

Sure, and there was a realistic scenario in which the 2013 Vikings were an 11 win team but they still ended up with just 5 wins. They were a competitive team too.

There's just no way to know how things would have worked out if everybody injured had remained healthy. Maybe that would have resulted in more wins (it's not an unreasonable assumption) but that's purely speculative. In the end, they are what their record says they are.

[Mothman]

Also, you're falling under that category of over reactors. This team is a mess?? Is it?? Are you sure? Because last time I checked, we dont have any legitimate threat leaving on this defense next year so the whole defense is back.

You keep saying that even though it's far from guaranteed. They could easily end up without 2 of their top 3 CBs, Newman and Munnerlyn, both of whom are in the final year of their contracts. Those would be significant losses. I'm not saying that will definitely happen but at this point, we don't know.

[Muqali]

I don't really get the over-analysis in football. I get that it's fun, but are we aware that we basically never know what we are talking about? I don't think it's even arguable that not only do you need great talent and great coaching, but you also need lightning to strike. 16 games a season. This isn't baseball. Winning teams lose 5/6 in baseball all the time They just have a lot of games to make up for it. They don't have near as many injuries to deal with. To be consistently making the playoffs REQUIRES you to be in a division with 3 other GARBAGE teams, it's never going to be entirely in your hands.

Firing Spielman won't make an offensive line fall out of the sky, but it would nuke the confidence of the entire team. I would wave goodbye to all of the defensive talent we've picked up at the end of their contracts.

I would also like to point out that I haven't given up on the season either. We visit the Jags, host Indy, visit GB then host Chicago. We could easily 4/4 those game if the offensive line gets the Eye of the Tiger. 25% chance to make the playoffs if we finish 3-1 even.

1 game at a time. Beat the Jags, get Peterson back vs Indy and this team could suddenly have confidence.

[S197]

My biggest gripe with Spielman is how he's handled the QB position. This has nothing to do with Bradford, I'm fine with that trade as you had to try and save the season. This goes back to Favre, when we had a 40+ year old at QB and zero contingency resulting in the whole McNabb, Ponder, Webb fiasco.

I think there's four aspects to judge him by:

1) Coaching. Spielman did not have his team in place until Zimmer. I think Zimmer is going to be a great HC and although the OC position is suspect, I think Spielman did a good job with this pick.

2) Defense. I don't think there's much to say here. It's a top 5 defense.

3) Special teams. Patterson is arguably the best returner in the league and Sherels is also very good in his own right. I think kick coverage has substantially improved. Walsh looked like a great pick his rookie season but then something happened. All in all, it looks favorable to me. Walsh could have been let go earlier but that's really my only issue.

4) Offense. On one hand he's drafted a future hall of famer, a top WR in Diggs, and a productive Rudolph. Thielen as a UDFA was also a nice find. I'm still of the opinion that no one has the depth nor contingency to deal with the amount of injuries to the O-line. No one. But that's this year, looking back the line has never been a strength. Given that, and the lack of contingency at QB, he doesn't get a pass.

Looking at it that way, I think he's done well in 3 out of the 4 aspects a GM should be most concerned about. He's also done well with trades (Jared Allen, Linval Joseph, Tom Johnson, draft picks, etc.) and has managed to amass a good amount of picks each draft. So for now, I would keep him. Extraordinary events killed the offense this year but the offense has underperformed in the past. He should be on a shorter leash but I'm not ready to give up.

[chicagopurple]

I dont buy the excuse that injuries killed our offense...without injuries we still had 2 iffy QBs, a crappy OL, and a fragile RB.

[RFIP]

2.)We have 2 QBs that are questionable..Teddy, who has no downfield ability, and is best valued for being a "good guy" and more likely to throw out of bounds rather then INTS...yawn
AND Bradford who can dink and dunk all day but hasnt been able to show anything meaningful in the red zone or deep.......again, all this is clouded by the UTTER and Complete lack of an OL.

Laughable.

Now for some FACTS.

As posted EVERYWHERE Sam is one of the best deep throwers in the league. A) Line cannot hold up to allow more B) wr's rarely win deep C) when they do they have almost all been hit on.

Look at the last game vs Dallas; Theilen can't win vs Carr but Sam puts it only place he could make a catch (and defender could not) but AT gave it a good effort just off his hand. Later they try again to Treadwell who is slower than me, again zero separation, again ball where only Treadwell can get it, which of course he could not come up with. And yet again to Johnson on 2nd and 18 down right sideline...off Johnson's hands. Oh and he puts it on perfectly to CP on first drive who caught it only to be called for OPI.

They showed a stat Thursday where Bradford was 50% on passes traveling beyond 20 yards in the air...and that's with THIS group of oft injured (Diggs), slow (Treadwell) and possession receivers (Theilen)

[Pondering Her Percy]

percy i must say you make it sound so simple. we need an offensive line and a running back? maybe an entire offensive line will fall out of the sky. and as far as a running back goes, which one of those did you have in mind because it clearly cannot be anyone on the roster except peterson. we already don't have a first round pick and if the plan is to keep peterson, how in the world will we afford patterson or anyone for help on the o-line? i know it is early with treadwell i'm simply pointing out the fact he hasn't shown anyone anything and has been on the field a great deal of snaps the last 3 games. there were many people who thought he was the best receiver in the draft, and many who said he should have been picked last out of the first round receivers.

If you looked at the post I wrote a few weeks back regarding the OL you would understand. We will be forced to resign Kalil, Boone is good, Berger is solid but older however Easton has done very well in two weeks, Fusco is awful and obviously RT is an issue. Berger can also play RG well. No we don't need an "entire OL". If you think we are going to find an OL like Dallas you have high hopes. I'm not saying we'll come close to that but we can develop a decent enough OL to be successful. We don't need Dallas' line to win a SB. Especially with this defense.

If you paid any attention to my last post, I talked about how many good RBs are in the draft this year. In turn, we draft one and let Peterson walk.

[Pondering Her Percy]

You keep saying that even though it's far from guaranteed. They could easily end up without 2 of their top 3 CBs, Newman and Munnerlyn, both of whom are in the final year of their contracts. Those would be significant losses. I'm not saying that will definitely happen but at this point, we don't know.

And we have Waynes as a starter and Alexander to man the slot of it did. Find a decent CB in FA or late in the draft and we're fine.

[Husker Vike]

For those of you who want Rick gone, who do have in mind that you would like to see replace him? I don't think that Belichick or Elway are leaving anytime soon so unless you know of some up and coming whiz kid , the best we would be able to land is some one who has fallen out of favor with another team.

[Boon]

He'll stick around even though he doesn't deserve to. It's because of Rick Spielman that we are in this situation this year - we deserve to be in it as well.

Next year is going to be more of the same. I don't see where the quick fixes for the offensive line will be - especially with no first round draft pick.

You're right, that first round pick would have filled the entire offensive line.....

[Boon]

Spielman isn't going anywhere. And shouldn't. The problem is the focus on the offensive line, disregarding every all pro this team has on defense, plus diggs who is on pace to be the first 1000 yard receiver we've had since moss. Ya'll need to calm down. Spielman couldn't have predicted the evisceration we have had up front, or with bridgewater.

[allday1991]

Spielman isn't going anywhere. And shouldn't. The problem is the focus on the offensive line, disregarding every all pro this team has on defense, plus diggs who is on pace to be the first 1000 yard receiver we've had since moss. Ya'll need to calm down. Spielman couldn't have predicted the evisceration we have had up front, or with bridgewater.

Rice had over a 1000 for us in 09?