QB market is a little nuts.

[mike2mike]

I love Teddy, but if the QB market keeps progressing his way, the position will be overpaid as a percentage of the salary cap.
This offseason, the Broncos decided it was easier for them to win with the 2000 Ravens/1985 Bears and of course 2015 Broncos style of approach.
So while Brock Osweiller got paid 18M a year to play elsewhere, the Broncos chose to pay Von Miller like a QB.

Here are a few notable overpaid contracts (in my opinion)

Per yr
22M Flacco
20M K Cousins
19M Kaep
18M Bradford
18M Osweiller
18M Cutler
12M Fitzpatrick
7M Chase Daniels
3.25M Shuan Hill

....drastically underpaid
1.7M Teddy Bridgewater

-----
Tyrod Taylor just got 15M/yr extension...

It's only going to go up from here... Assuming Teddy shows progress, Teddy is going to get like $25M/yr... Maybe more depending on his development by the time 2018 rolls around.

Hard for me to believe at some point it isn't better to try to win through a dominant defense and powerful run game, especially as teams are more and more built to win through defending the pass and aren't prepared to handle power run game.

I say 5th year option him in 2018, and then franchise tag and trade him the following year...
With that in mind.... There are only really a few ways to really operate if you aren't willing to pay a QB big money...
1)Keep on drafting them and developing them and start them before their 4 years (and 5th year option) are up.... Ideally franchise tagging and trading them the following year.
2)Run a radically different offense focused on read/option style option QBs.
3)hope you can find a QB no one wants wo is still good enough to do okay... Tyrod Taylor last year and maybe Mark Sanchez this year.
4)A combination of the above.

However... If you manage the extra 15-25M roster space correctly, from not paying a QB, it shouldn't be long before essentially front loaded and flat contract structures catch up and you finally can afford a dominant defense, and a dominant offense and still keep the peices together...
Just not sure this team is quite ready to find the cap room to keep Teddy without losing other picks...

If Rhodes can be traded for the right deal, with Mac Alexander and Zimmer working on him and Waynes, maybe sign Munnerlyn for another year and such, plus the draft pick we get playing for cheap for 4 years, maybe we can use a move like that to front load Shariff Floyd and eventually make the room come 2018-2019 to actually front load Teddy and keep everything together...
Or maybe we just backload and go all in and rebuild if it doesn't work out...

But... The QB market will make it very hard to keep the team together without sacrifices somewhere.

[fiestavike]

I love Teddy, but if the QB market keeps progressing his way, the position will be overpaid as a percentage of the salary cap.
This offseason, the Broncos decided it was easier for them to win with the 2000 Ravens/1985 Bears and of course 2015 Broncos style of approach.
So while Brock Osweiller got paid 18M a year to play elsewhere, the Broncos chose to pay Von Miller like a QB.

Here are a few notable overpaid contracts (in my opinion)

Per yr
22M Flacco
20M K Cousins
19M Kaep
18M Bradford
18M Osweiller
18M Cutler
12M Fitzpatrick
7M Chase Daniels
3.25M Shuan Hill

....drastically underpaid
1.7M Teddy Bridgewater

-----
Tyrod Taylor just got 15M/yr extension...

It's only going to go up from here... Assuming Teddy shows progress, Teddy is going to get like $25M/yr... Maybe more depending on his development by the time 2018 rolls around.

Hard for me to believe at some point it isn't better to try to win through a dominant defense and powerful run game, especially as teams are more and more built to win through defending the pass and aren't prepared to handle power run game.

I say 5th year option him in 2018, and then franchise tag and trade him the following year...
With that in mind.... There are only really a few ways to really operate if you aren't willing to pay a QB big money...
1)Keep on drafting them and developing them and start them before their 4 years (and 5th year option) are up.... Ideally franchise tagging and trading them the following year.
2)Run a radically different offense focused on read/option style option QBs.
3)hope you can find a QB no one wants wo is still good enough to do okay... Tyrod Taylor last year and maybe Mark Sanchez this year.
4)A combination of the above.

However... If you manage the extra 15-25M roster space correctly, from not paying a QB, it shouldn't be long before essentially front loaded and flat contract structures catch up and you finally can afford a dominant defense, and a dominant offense and still keep the peices together...
Just not sure this team is quite ready to find the cap room to keep Teddy without losing other picks...

If Rhodes can be traded for the right deal, with Mac Alexander and Zimmer working on him and Waynes, maybe sign Munnerlyn for another year and such, plus the draft pick we get playing for cheap for 4 years, maybe we can use a move like that to front load Shariff Floyd and eventually make the room come 2018-2019 to actually front load Teddy and keep everything together...
Or maybe we just backload and go all in and rebuild if it doesn't work out...

But... The QB market will make it very hard to keep the team together without sacrifices somewhere.

Interesting thoughts. I've been intrigued about signing Teddy longterm and basically frontloading some of his contract into years where he would already be under contract for rookie peanuts in order to help keep the window open even longer.

My opinion, Shariff Floyd will not be retained long term, especially if he spends most of the year dinged up and inconsistent this season.

[Mothman]

It's only going to go up from here... Assuming Teddy shows progress, Teddy is going to get like $25M/yr... Maybe more depending on his development by the time 2018 rolls around.

It really comes down to that phrase highlighted above. By the time his contract is up, he may look worth $25 million a year or they may not even want him anymore. There's no way to know at this stage.

You've provided some good food for thought, Mike. As QB salaries spiral ever upward, there is a point at which teams may simply have a better chance to win by building and investing heavily elsewhere and trying to get by with a QB on his first contract. I'm definitely an advocate of the "Keep on drafting them and developing them" approach (within reason, of course).

[halfgiz]

Just my opinion: I think they should all have base salaries, and then add incentives on their performance..
It's going to be interesting what Teddy's price tag is. Along with Barrs.

[PurpleMustReign]

Just my opinion: I think they should all have base salaries, and then add incentives on their performance..
It's going to be interesting what Teddy's price tag is. Along with Barrs.

And Hunter and Kendricks. I really hope we can keep these guys together, assuming they play to their potential.

[mansquatch]

TB's contract is likely to be at least partially offset by AP no longer being on the roster. Highly unlikely we are going to have a RB on the roster making that kind of money much longer.

Also, QB is still the most important position in football and the market reflects it. Just like Kalil, when it comes time to pay him, he will get paid assume he is worth keeping vs. other alternatives.

[jackal]

The cap will increase greatly also
because all the teams are paying
big money on QB's and pass rushers

[autobon7]

I love Teddy, but if the QB market keeps progressing his way, the position will be overpaid as a percentage of the salary cap.
This offseason, the Broncos decided it was easier for them to win with the 2000 Ravens/1985 Bears and of course 2015 Broncos style of approach.
So while Brock Osweiller got paid 18M a year to play elsewhere, the Broncos chose to pay Von Miller like a QB.

Here are a few notable overpaid contracts (in my opinion)

Per yr
22M Flacco
20M K Cousins
19M Kaep
18M Bradford
18M Osweiller
18M Cutler
12M Fitzpatrick
7M Chase Daniels
3.25M Shuan Hill

....drastically underpaid
1.7M Teddy Bridgewater

-----
Tyrod Taylor just got 15M/yr extension...

It's only going to go up from here... Assuming Teddy shows progress, Teddy is going to get like $25M/yr... Maybe more depending on his development by the time 2018 rolls around.

Hard for me to believe at some point it isn't better to try to win through a dominant defense and powerful run game, especially as teams are more and more built to win through defending the pass and aren't prepared to handle power run game.

I say 5th year option him in 2018, and then franchise tag and trade him the following year...
With that in mind.... There are only really a few ways to really operate if you aren't willing to pay a QB big money...
1)Keep on drafting them and developing them and start them before their 4 years (and 5th year option) are up.... Ideally franchise tagging and trading them the following year.
2)Run a radically different offense focused on read/option style option QBs.
3)hope you can find a QB no one wants wo is still good enough to do okay... Tyrod Taylor last year and maybe Mark Sanchez this year.
4)A combination of the above.

However... If you manage the extra 15-25M roster space correctly, from not paying a QB, it shouldn't be long before essentially front loaded and flat contract structures catch up and you finally can afford a dominant defense, and a dominant offense and still keep the peices together...
Just not sure this team is quite ready to find the cap room to keep Teddy without losing other picks...

If Rhodes can be traded for the right deal, with Mac Alexander and Zimmer working on him and Waynes, maybe sign Munnerlyn for another year and such, plus the draft pick we get playing for cheap for 4 years, maybe we can use a move like that to front load Shariff Floyd and eventually make the room come 2018-2019 to actually front load Teddy and keep everything together...
Or maybe we just backload and go all in and rebuild if it doesn't work out...

But... The QB market will make it very hard to keep the team together without sacrifices somewhere.

I don't like the idea of trading Rhodes.......

[mike2mike]

Interesting thoughts. I've been intrigued about signing Teddy longterm and basically frontloading some of his contract into years where he would already be under contract for rookie peanuts in order to help keep the window open even longer.

My opinion, Shariff Floyd will not be retained long term, especially if he spends most of the year dinged up and inconsistent this season.

Yeah, things can change quickly there but it does seem a little frustrating and could easily be true if things do not change.
Certainly letting him walk for nothing would be painful but it would let us frontload and change the equation.

[Maelstrom88]

I think Teddy has been solid but he needs to have a big year where he takes command and throws 30 plus touchdowns before I'd be comfortable giving him big bucks. If I ran a team I'd have a starter, a back up with at least one year of NFL experience, and two young guys who I brought in to compete for the 3rd spot in preseason. I would always try to draft one somewhere every year to develop and compete for a roster spot. That way you have some leverage by having good young back ups when your starter is looking for a new deal.

[mike2mike]

I don't like the idea of trading Rhodes.......

You don't like trading Rhodes... Would you prefer losing Teddy and a first rounder? Would you prefer rebuilding and sucking for 3-5 years after back loading contracts and entering salary cap hell? I don't want to trade Rhodes, but a lot of the alternatives are also probably bad.

Call it ~53M for the cheapest team possible. You have to field a team and vet minimum is just under $1M... Some will make more, some will make less we'll average it out. Take away $1M and replace it with the following contracts....
Teddy $20M
Barr $14M? (thanks to Von Miller)
Rhodes $12M
Smith $10.5M
Floyd $9M
Boone $7M
Your up to ~$120M. Let's be very generous and say the cap rises to $200M by then... That's still 60% of the cap for just 6 players...and you haven't covered big ~$10M+ contracts coming up from Diggs, Hunter, Waynes, Kendricks, and other recent picks we hope to emerge, the typical free agent signing Spielman likes to have room for, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffin, Fusco, Kyle Rudolph, Jaruis Wright and all the other players that have a good chance to be on the team in 2018 and possibly beyond... I did not even include Adrian who I think most are assuming won't be on this team past this year.... There's no way that you can keep all the pieces together when they all hit their 2nd contracts at the same time.

That being said, I actually think trading Rhodes is less bad than other options.

CB is the position that I have the most confidence in Zimmer in developing, so it becomes far more expendable than it would be to other teams. I also think Rhodes would command at least a 1st rounder after A couple more years in Zimmer's defense. The Vikings are treating Waynes like he'll be better than Rhodes putting him at the left CB typically lining up against the X WR. I also think Rhodes will get us a mid to early and possibly even very early 1st rounder in trade and possibly another pick, plus save us ~12M/yr. Even if Harvin had been everything he was and stayed healthy, the trade of Harvin for 1st and 3rd which became McKinnon and Rhodes PLUs ~12M/yr in cap room clearly would have added value and I see no reason why that wouldn't be the case with Rhodes. Even more so because 12M over 5 years is $60M... Using that money to keep a lot of contracts flat to frontloaded plus keep Teddy and keep team together beyond an "all in" and rebuild, and keep draft picks and keep young? We'd HAVE to consider it.

If we choose to keep Rhodes, I think the best option is basically to backload most contracts and you plan to reallyrebuild midway through Teddy's 2nd contract and enter cap hell and basically you have to start over with maybe a few key pieces. We perhaps aren't that far away from a SB, so it may be worth the gamble, but I'd prefer just continuing to add value to the team over time and occasionally taking one step back to take two forward. Letting Floyd walk for nothing may be an option, but I don't like letting talented players to for nothing. I also think there's a better chance we can find a first rounder under Zimmer's tutiledge play like Rhodes or even a free agent, than we can get a free agent to play up to Floyd's potential, especially when we saw CBs in this offseason like Sean Smith, Josh Norman, and Prince Amukamara and others hit the market... But maybe I'm believing in Floyd too much at this stage.

[mike2mike]

I think Teddy has been solid but he needs to have a big year where he takes command and throws 30 plus touchdowns before I'd be comfortable giving him big bucks. If I ran a team I'd have a starter, a back up with at least one year of NFL experience, and two young guys who I brought in to compete for the 3rd spot in preseason. I would always try to draft one somewhere every year to develop and compete for a roster spot. That way you have some leverage by having good young back ups when your starter is looking for a new deal.

We aren't asking him to play in a way where he'll throw for many TDs, but perhaps that's reason why we can win without a big money QB in itself. It's possible that once AP is gone we will ask him to throw more.

I like your idea of preparing your team to have a good backup by the time the contract rolls around.

[Maelstrom88]

We aren't asking him to play in a way where he'll throw for many TDs, but perhaps that's reason why we can win without a big money QB in itself. It's possible that once AP is gone we will ask him to throw more.

I like your idea of preparing your team to have a good backup by the time the contract rolls around.

Thanks. I agree it makes it more difficult to evaluate Teddy because they don't let him throw enough to amass 30 plus touchdowns. This team is built more to run AP and play good defense. I would like to see them open up more this year and trust Teddy more to win game instead of just playing not to lose them. He has the experience and weapons imo to trust him with doing that the question is can the offensive line protect him and will Zimmer want to open up on offense?

[fiestavike]

Thanks. I agree it makes it more difficult to evaluate Teddy because they don't let him throw enough to amass 30 plus touchdowns. This team is built more to run AP and play good defense. I would like to see them open up more this year and trust Teddy more to win game instead of just playing not to lose them. He has the experience and weapons imo to trust him with doing that the question is can the offensive line protect him and will Zimmer want to open up on offense?

Teddy would be starting this season dead if they had given him the opportunity to throw that many times last year.

[Mothman]

TD production from the QB position isn't simply a consequence of the number of attempts. For example, Russell Wilson threw 20 more TDs than Bridgewater last year on just 36 more attempts.

In other words, it's as much about how the QB plays the position as it is about how many passes he attempts. Of course, there are numerous other factors as well (blocking, receivers, play calling, route-running, drops, etc.) and 30 TD passes in one season is a lot. That said, 14 isn't much and Bridgewater has certainly had opportunities to be more productive, even while playing within the team's chosen strategy.

If signing him to a lucrative. long term contract is even going to be a consideration in the next few years, he has to play better. It's that simple. All the excuses in the world aren't likely to land a QB averaging 14 TD passes a season a big starting contract unless there are exceptional circumstances (like a Super Bowl win).