How Teddy Bridgewater fared in Sando's QB Tier Rankings

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How Teddy Bridgewater fared in Sando's QB Tier Rankings

Post by Mothman »

Every year, Mike Sando assembles NFL QBs in a tier ranking. The article is for ESPN Insiders (consequently, I can't access the entire thing) but here's a direct link to it:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_ ... hlisberger

Here's an explanation of how it works:
The voting panel for our third annual NFL QB Tier Rankings consisted of 42 league insiders -- 10 general managers, five head coaches, seven offensive coordinators, five defensive coordinators, eight personnel evaluators and seven other position coaches/executives.

I polled coaches and evaluators on 33 QBs, asking them to place each player into one of five tiers, with Tier 1 reserved for the very best and Tier 5 reserved for the very worst:

Tier 1: Can carry his team each week. Team wins because of him.
Tier 2: Can carry team sometimes but not as consistently.
Tier 3: Legit starter but needs heavy run game/defense to win.
Tier 4: Might not want this guy starting all 16 games.
Tier 5: Do not think this guy should be starting.

In the end, we averaged the tier rankings for each quarterback to produce a 1-33 ranking across four tiers (no starting QBs received enough Tier 5 votes to fall into the fifth tier), and gave the insiders anonymity so they could speak candidly.
Bridgewater was ranked in Tier 3, at #23, the same spot he held last year.

Judd Zulgad has written an article about how Bridgewater fared in the rankings:

http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2016/ ... -rankings/

The Strib's Michael Rand also writes about it here:

http://www.startribune.com/another-rank ... 389617281/

Rand makes a good point:
Again, this is nothing that hasn’t been written or said before. And ultimately, as noted already, what the Vikings think carries far more weight. That said, how other teams perceive Bridgewater is indicative of how defenses will game-plan against the Vikings this season. And you could also argue that how he is viewed by other teams is reasonably objective.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by Mothman »

As long as I'm posting Bridgewater-related stuff, here's a detailed analysis of his game from Bill Barnwell:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Ba ... -turnovers
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by CbusVikesFan »

All sounds about right to me. The Vikings could have selected any of the QB's on the Bengals roster instead of their last two "projects" and it would not have hurt my feelings one bit.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by randomghost11 »

Sounds about right. Tier 3 is basically just young guys still developing that need to be lead before they take the next step. An obvious example of this is Wilson and the Seahawks
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

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It sounds about right to me too. I like Sando's annual rankings because they always provide perspectives about how players are perceived within the league, not just by fans or their own (usually very supportive) teams.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

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More Tales of Teddy B:

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/08/11/nfl- ... ssing-game
"It’s Minnesota’s first-team offense facing Cincinnati’s first-team defense, and one reporter wonders aloud if they should scoot down the sideline in case Teddy Bridgwater erupts for any big plays. “Uh, it’s Teddy,” a camera man says hesitantly. “I don’t know. We probably shouldn’t go further than 10 yards from him.” It’s as good an example as any of the criticism that has haunted Bridgewater since he entered the league in 2014: He’s simply not good at the deep ball.

Try telling that to Bengals cornerback Adam Jones. A few plays into the series, Bridgewater steps back and scans the left sideline, where second-year wideout Stefon Diggs is matched up with Jones. Bridgewater tosses a fade. The ball sails over Jones’s head and is gathered in seamlessly by Diggs for a gain of about 30 yards. Jones stutters his steps to slow down, then kicks the damp grass. Dirt flies.
“F---!” Jones shouts."
You can see the play at the link above.
“I had never faced Teddy before, but you could tell he’s pretty smart,” Bengals cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick said. “He made some really good throws, and some great reads. I was impressed. I actually almost had an interception, but my damn gloves were so wet they felt like water.”

Kirkpatrick paused. “Adam Jones did get beat on one though,” he said, smiling. On the play he got beat, Jones said he had the wrong leverage. The Bengals did not watch film of Minnesota before the first day of practice—they’ll likely do so as the week goes on—and Jones noted that the pace of the Vikings’ offense is different and a lot the plays still are “dink-and-dunk.”
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by mansquatch »

I think this article is good in so far as it look at the different levels of QBs. However to win it all in the NFL the last 5 years have shown that it is truly a team game and the teams that are winning the big game are doing by playing elite level defense.

So while I do not think that TB is anywhere near a Tier 1 QB, I'm not convinced that means the Vikings can't go deep into the playoffs given the trajectory of their defense.

As far as TB goes I think the analysis is fair, but I'd be quick to point out that TB has yet to play behind an OL not marred by major injuries for the majority of a season. His first season was also the year of the AP "suspension" so one might make a case that the sample size of his work contains some significant headwinds that were out of his control. I don't think that is enough to magically make him into a tier 1 guy, far from it, but I do think his numbers are probably somewhat understated because of these factors. My guess is TB is closer to a 2 than a 3, but not firmly a 2.

Last season a huge part of the Vikings game was not committing turnovers. That may not produce stats for the likes of ESPN, but it is hard to overstate how much of an impact this has on a defensive team like the Vikings.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

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mansquatch wrote:I think this article is good in so far as it look at the different levels of QBs. However to win it all in the NFL the last 5 years have shown that it is truly a team game and the teams that are winning the big game are doing by playing elite level defense.

So while I do not think that TB is anywhere near a Tier 1 QB, I'm not convinced that means the Vikings can't go deep into the playoffs given the trajectory of their defense.

As far as TB goes I think the analysis is fair, but I'd be quick to point out that TB has yet to play behind an OL not marred by major injuries for the majority of a season. His first season was also the year of the AP "suspension" so one might make a case that the sample size of his work contains some significant headwinds that were out of his control. I don't think that is enough to magically make him into a tier 1 guy, far from it, but I do think his numbers are probably somewhat understated because of these factors. My guess is TB is closer to a 2 than a 3, but not firmly a 2.

Last season a huge part of the Vikings game was not committing turnovers. That may not produce stats for the likes of ESPN, but it is hard to overstate how much of an impact this has on a defensive team like the Vikings.
It would matter a lot less if they scored more often (but that's a point about the entire offense, not just the QB). They need to go from being a "defensive team" to a much more balanced team.

I didn't get the impression the rankings were about stats but rather overall performance. Bridgewater has faced some adversity in terms of the roster around him but that's hardly unique. To this point, I don't think he fits the Tier 2 definition of a QB who can carry a team sometimes but not as consistently (as a Tier 1 QB). The Tier 3 description fits him much better and, as you pointed out, a team can go deep into the playoffs with a QB like that. It just has to be a good enough team.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by fiestavike »

Mothman wrote: Tier 1: Can carry his team each week. Team wins because of him.
Tier 2: Can carry team sometimes but not as consistently.
Tier 3: Legit starter but needs heavy run game/defense to win.
Tier 4: Might not want this guy starting all 16 games.
Tier 5: Do not think this guy should be starting.
I think these tiers are pretty poorly constructed, but taking it as it is, I would agree 2015 Teddy was Tier 3. These tiers have all kinds of baggage from surrounding team factors which make them pretty useless though. I would imagine a lot of QBs that would be in Tier 2, Stafford, Cutler, Winston, etc. "sometimes" lose games about as often as they "sometimes" carry their team. I wonder how many superbowls have gone to QBs who would be categorizred as "Tier 3". Until a QB is Tier 1, I would rather have a Tier 3 QB than a Tier 2 QB.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by randomghost11 »

The tiers make sense to me. Tier 1 ( Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben) is the guys you put your entire faith in at all times and they tend to pull through. Tier 2 (Cam, Brees, Wilson, Luck, Rivers, Eli, Palmer, Romo, Flacco, Stafford, Dalton) QBs show greatness at times but still have stretches where they look pretty off. Tier 3 ( Carr, Winston, Smith, Mariota, Cousins, Cutler, Bortles, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Taylor, Osweiler, Bradford) is the most different to me. I'd say Carr, Winston, Mariota, Bortles , and Bridgewater are still guys that we will see much improvement from. Cousins, Tannehill, Taylor, and Osweiler can still improve a little but I doubt they have career changing development at this point. Smith, Cutler, Fitz, and Bradford are basically what they are.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

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randomghost11 wrote:The tiers make sense to me. Tier 1 ( Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben) is the guys you put your entire faith in at all times and they tend to pull through. Tier 2 (Cam, Brees, Wilson, Luck, Rivers, Eli, Palmer, Romo, Flacco, Stafford, Dalton) QBs show greatness at times but still have stretches where they look pretty off. Tier 3 ( Carr, Winston, Smith, Mariota, Cousins, Cutler, Bortles, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Taylor, Osweiler, Bradford) is the most different to me. I'd say Carr, Winston, Mariota, Bortles , and Bridgewater are still guys that we will see much improvement from. Cousins, Tannehill, Taylor, and Osweiler can still improve a little but I doubt they have career changing development at this point. Smith, Cutler, Fitz, and Bradford are basically what they are.
Suppose that instead of :
Tier 1: Can carry his team each week. Team wins because of him.
Tier 2: Can carry team sometimes but not as consistently.
Tier 3: Legit starter but needs heavy run game/defense to win.
Tier 4: Might not want this guy starting all 16 games.
Tier 5: Do not think this guy should be starting.

it read something like:
Tier 1: Consistently excellent in decision making and accuracy.
Tier 2: Consistently good in decision making and accuracy.
Tier 3: Erratic, but shows glimpses of understanding offense and arm talent
Tier 4: Consistently poor in either decision making or accuracy
Tier 5: Consistently poor in both decision making and accuracy

This is still obviously over-simplified, but at least it doesn't add in the nonsense line that "team wins because of him" which are impossible to really quantify anyways.

In this more sensible tier system, Teddy would be in the 2nd Tier. Many of the players currently in Tier two would be where they belong in Tiers 3 and 4. The stratification would be much more accurate as a reflection of the actual production of the leagues QBs.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by randomghost11 »

Yea, I can agree that the defined reason for each tier should be improved.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

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Rather than focus on the language used to define the tiers, it makes more sense to focus on the actual point of the exercise: ranking QBs. The tiers are simply levels within a hierarchy. they don't need definitions at all. There are clearly a few QBs who belong at the very top. There's clearly a level just behind them in terms of overall performance and so on. Bridgewater obviously doesn't belong at the top and it should be equally obvious that there are at least some QBs in the NFL who, while they don't belong at the very top either, are better than Bridgewater. Consequently, the third tier ranking makes sense.

Problem solved. :)
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by fiestavike »

Mothman wrote:Rather than focus on the language used to define the tiers, it makes more sense to focus on the actual point of the exercise: ranking QBs. The tiers are simply levels within a hierarchy. they don't need definitions at all. There are clearly a few QBs who belong at the very top. There's clearly a level just behind them in terms of overall performance and so on. Bridgewater obviously doesn't belong at the top and it should be equally obvious that there are at least some QBs in the NFL who, while they don't belong at the very top either, are better than Bridgewater. Consequently, the third tier ranking makes sense.

Problem solved. :)
I'm not sure how the language describing the Tiers isn't relevant, even critical to the exercise, but ok. :confused:

I'm certainly not opposed to the exercise of ranking the QBs in tiers if it tickles ones fancy.
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Re: How Teddy Bridgewater fared in in Sando's QB Tier Rankin

Post by jackal »

Stats are just that IMO...People want QB's to throw for 4500 yards and 50 touch downs...

If Teddy can give us sixty percent or so of those numbers we can win a championship
that's all I care about....hopefully our OL can pass block somewhat and Teddy have more
than enough firepower ...
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