Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by jackal »

http://www.vikings.com/news/article-1/V ... 6296bb1341

Since Spielman’s first draft with Minnesota (2007), the Vikings have had 75 draft picks in nine years – and 34 of those players remain on Minnesota’s current roster. The Vikings have retained 45.3 percent of their draft picks since 2007, which is the highest retention rate in the league. Cincinnati (42.7) is second, and Green Bay (42.0) is third.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by Norv Zimmer »

This really doesn't mean he is the best. Not that I don't like Rick but it could mean that he is afraid to admit he is wrong and keeps busts. There are many ways to interpret this.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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Norv Zimmer wrote:This really doesn't mean he is the best. Not that I don't like Rick but it could mean that he is afraid to admit he is wrong and keeps busts. There are many ways to interpret this.
Which busts are on the roster that earned a second contract?
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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This really doesn't mean he is the best. Not that I don't like Rick but it could mean that he is afraid to admit he is wrong and keeps busts. There are many ways to interpret this.
The two players I think that qualify is Kalil and Patterson.

I think LT are so hard to get in the draft and Kalil had such a great first year. That is why kalil
is still a viking. Patterson value is a kick returner only. I think he could be more but he has
not achieved any real skill set as a wide out IMO
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

dead_poet wrote: Which busts are on the roster that earned a second contract?
Exactly. Neither Kalil or Patterson have received a second contract yet. Patterson was a bust from the start. I really don't know how to analyze Kalil.

Bottom line is, Kalil was hands down the right pick in 2012. It was between him, Blackmon or Claiborne. Blackmon is out of the league and Claiborne is hanging on by a thread. Kalil was a pro bowler year 1 so I don't think anyone can really fault Spielman for drafting him

As most of you know, I've been a huge backer of Spielman since I've been on this board. Many like to disagree and I'm sure there will be some "trolling" type comments that hit this thread at some point but the proof is in the pudding. He has continued to building and improve this roster since he took over in 2012. We're at the point now where we can almost go BPA in the draft because we don't have many holes at all. Rebuilds don't happen over night but we are where we've wanted to be now with a good young core.

From players to the coaches he has hired, I truly believe the guy is one of the best in the league.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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Norv Zimmer wrote:This really doesn't mean he is the best. Not that I don't like Rick but it could mean that he is afraid to admit he is wrong and keeps busts. There are many ways to interpret this.
Exactly. That percentage doesn't speak to the overall quality of those players, to opportunities missed in the draft, etc. It seems absurd on the face of it to suggest that Spielman has been the best drafter of the past decade when, over the course of that decade, the team he's been drafting for has one playoff win and just 4 winning seasons.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by dead_poet »

Mothman wrote: Exactly. That percentage doesn't speak to the overall quality of those players, to opportunities missed in the draft, etc. It seems absurd on the face of it to suggest that Spielman has been the best drafter of the past decade when, over the course of that decade, the team he's been drafting for has one playoff win and just 4 winning seasons.
Meh. I don't consider the Rick Regime to have officially started until 2012. We have zero way of knowing how many of his recommendations were taken or ignored during the TOA years. And, really, I can understand if one would believe it shouldn't begin without "his coach" either (2014) but at minimum (for me) it can't be fairly judged until 2012. YMMV.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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dead_poet wrote:Meh. I don't consider the Rick Regime to have officially started until 2012.


Evaluating his drafting ability isn't the same as evaluating him as a GM. He's been drafting for the Vikes for a decade.

If we're only going back to 2012, that doesn't even cover half of the past decade so I'd say that all but disqualifies him from being the best over a 10 year period.
We have zero way of knowing how many of his recommendations were taken or ignored during the TOA years.
That doesn't mean he should just get a pass. He was in one of the two most powerful non-ownership positions on the team during those years. He ran the scouting department. He made the picks on draft day and more than once, it was reported in the media that those final draft day calls were up to him. Spielman was no puppet.
And, really, I can understand if one would believe it shouldn't begin without "his coach" either (2014) but at minimum (for me) it can't be fairly judged until 2012. YMMV.
Oh, it varies. ;) I disagree for the reasons cited above. At worst, he was the second most powerful voice in the room for those pre-2012 drafts and that's debatable.

It makes no sense to me to suggest we can't evaluate the performance of a high-level member of the Vikings organization over the past 10 years because he's only had "his coach" for the past 2 years or because he was only the GM for 4. What were they paying him for in the previous 6-8 years?

Wherever he currently ranks as a drafter, let's hope he improves that standing this weekend. :)
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Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by dead_poet »

Mothman wrote:Evaluating his drafting ability isn't the same as evaluating him as a GM. He's been drafting for the Vikes for a decade.
Well, yeah. I thought he made a great move getting rid of Harvin for what clearly amounts to a mountain of booty at this point. I was skeptical at the time but man, letting Rice walk was the right decision. I don't like how he handled the Winfield situation, nor do I necessarily agree with his offensive line/quarterback plans. However, in the whole, he gets a passing grade from me. I'd be happy to discuss other examples, though.
If we're only going back to 2012, that doesn't even cover half of the past decade so I'd say that all but disqualifies him from being the best over a 10 year period.
You'll get no argument from me there. Given the murky nature of the power structure and unknowns as to who really had final say on player acquisitions prior to 2012, I find this article or claim quite difficult to prove one way or the other. Get back to me in 2022 (if he's still employed by the Vikings).
That doesn't mean he should just get a pass. He was in one of the two most powerful non-ownership positions on the team during those years. He ran the scouting department. He made the picks on draft day and more than once, it was reported in the media that those final draft day calls were up to him. Spielman was no puppet.
He also wasn't the primary decision-maker. Again, that's why it's hard to properly evaluate prior to 2012.
Oh, it varies. ;) I disagree for the reasons cited above. At worst, he was the second most powerful voice in the room for those pre-2012 drafts and that's debatable.
Can you say for certain the "second-most-powerful voice" had final say in roster decisions? If so, which ones? That's the thing. We don't know. Trying to evaluate that you're going to inevitably make false assumptions trying to prove a pre-defined opinion.

What if his philosophy didn't mesh with Childress'? If you looks at what he's done following (focus more on youth vs. vets) you can infer perhaps he had a different philosophy compared to Childress who perhaps was banging the table for more vets in "win now" mode (which really it's hard to blame him when "his?" QB experiment (TJ) failed and he desperately needed wins to try and keep his job).
It makes no sense to me to suggest we can't evaluate the performance of a high-level member of the Vikings organization over the past 10 years because he's only had "his coach" for the past 2 years or because he was only the GM for 4. What were they paying him for in the previous 6-8 years?
Without all the data, I'm not sure how you can properly evaluate. You're basing your evaluation on assumptions. Whereas Vikings brass can make more of a proper evaluation because they are/were privy to more detail regarding that structure.
Wherever he currently ranks as a drafter, let's hope he improves that standing this weekend. :)
No doubt.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by mansquatch »

Spielman may or may not be the best. I am thinking that he is no worse than above average and arguably elite. Who has done more without a franchise QB on the roster in the past 4 years?

A challenge I'd raise to those who are skeptical is this: If not him, then whom and why? My guess is that one might argue a few names (they all probably have franchise QBs on their respective teams...) but not more than four or five. That places Spielman in elite company IMO.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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dead_poet wrote:Well, yeah. I thought he made a great move getting rid of Harvin for what clearly amounts to a mountain of booty at this point. I was skeptical at the time but man, letting Rice walk was the right decision. I don't like how he handled the Winfield situation, nor do I necessarily agree with his offensive line/quarterback plans. However, in the whole, he gets a passing grade from me. I'd be happy to discuss other examples, though.
None of the examples you mentioned are examples of his drafting ability. :confused:
You'll get no argument from me there. Given the murky nature of the power structure and unknowns as to who really had final say on player acquisitions prior to 2012, I find this article or claim quite difficult to prove one way or the other. Get back to me in 2022 (if he's still employed by the Vikings).
He also wasn't the primary decision-maker. Again, that's why it's hard to properly evaluate prior to 2012.
Can you say for certain the "second-most-powerful voice" had final say in roster decisions? If so, which ones? That's the thing. We don't know. Trying to evaluate that you're going to inevitably make false assumptions trying to prove a pre-defined opinion.
I can't say Spielman had final say with roster decisions but I can say he had final say with draft decisions because it was widely and repeatedly reported that when it was time to make the actual picks, the final call was his choice.
What if his philosophy didn't mesh with Childress'? If you looks at what he's done following (focus more on youth vs. vets) you can infer perhaps he had a different philosophy compared to Childress who perhaps was banging the table for more vets in "win now" mode (which really it's hard to blame him when "his?" QB experiment (TJ) failed and he desperately needed wins to try and keep his job).
... or when could infer that he found himself in different circumstances that more or less necessitated a youth movement.
Without all the data, I'm not sure how you can properly evaluate. You're basing your evaluation on assumptions. Whereas Vikings brass can make more of a proper evaluation because they are/were privy to more detail regarding that structure.
i think we can evaluate based on his role. He was, at a minimum, one third of the TOA. I think it's safe to say Brzezinski's role in the TOA when it came to scouting and personnel decisions was reduced in comparison to the role of the head coach and VP pf Player Personnel so Spielman's input into such decisions was probably more than 33.3% and closer to 50%, if not greater. There's no way for us to know how often he and Childress (or Frazier in 2011) disagreed or how to specifically attribute each draft choice, pick by pick, to a specific decision-maker. In many (perhaps most) cases, they may have been on the same page. However, we do know that he was a major voice in those draft decisions. We know that he ran the scouting department, which played a crucial role in evaluating those players. that he himself would have played a crucial role in the evaluation and selection process. We can consider him at least 33% responsible for all draft decisions prior to 2012 and considering all of the above, including reports that he had final say, probably much more responsible than that. The bottom line is he was heavily involved, involved enough to remain with the team after Childress was fired, involved enough to be promoted to GM, presumably based on his prior performance. If he was just getting out of the way of the head coaches all along, that promotion seems pretty unlikely. The promotion suggests his role was significant and then expanded.

Spielman's essentially been calling the shots in the draft for a decade and he's certainly been running the scouting/evaluation aspect of the Vikes draft for that long. Good and bad, he's easily been the biggest, most consistent voice in that process for the Vikes since 2006.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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mansquatch wrote:Spielman may or may not be the best. I am thinking that he is no worse than above average and arguably elite. Who has done more without a franchise QB on the roster in the past 4 years?
We're talking about 10 years and he's as responsible as anyone for the lack of a franchise QB. Isn't that a strike against him since he's taken 2 shots at that position in 5 years?
A challenge I'd raise to those who are skeptical is this: If not him, then whom and why? My guess is that one might argue a few names (they all probably have franchise QBs on their respective teams...) but not more than four or five. That places Spielman in elite company IMO.
Off the top of my head, I'd say the Seahawks and Broncos have done a heck of a job and Seattle drafted their franchise QB.

I have to return to my initial comment: how can we possibly consider Spielman the best drafter of the past decade when the Vikings have had losing seasons in 6 of those 10 years? If he's been drafting at an elite level, better than anyone else, for an entire decade shouldn't the Vikes be a perennial playoff team by now rather than a team that's only reached the postseason twice in the last 6 years and been immediately bounced from the playoffs both times? Since the draft is the primary way to build a team, then logically, shouldn't elite drafting yield a better team over such an extended period of time? If the reasoning is that the absence of a franchise QB has prevented such success, I think that undermines the argument that Spielman's drafting has been elite since the draft is where franchise QBs are almost always found.

I'm not saying he's done a bad job drafting for the Vikes. I just find it hard to believe he's been the best in the league over the past decade. The results suggest otherwise.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by dead_poet »

Mothman wrote:None of the examples you mentioned are examples of his drafting ability. :confused:
I read your comment as evaluating him based on more than his drafting ability. Apologies if I got that wrong.
I can't say Spielman had final say with roster decisions but I can say he had final say with draft decisions because it was widely and repeatedly reported that when it was time to make the actual picks, the final call was his choice.
I don't care what was reported. Has this been confirmed? I'd also question how much his draft decisions were influenced by one or other members of the TOA. If Childress really wanted a guy that Rick may not have been sold on -- "pounded the table" as it were, it's different if he has equal control than if there's a clear distribution of power. We don't know if any picks were overruled by Childress (or Wilf in the case of such differentiating opinions).
or when could infer that he found himself in different circumstances that more or less necessitated a youth movement.
Chicken or the egg argument. And, again, we don't know who all influenced the strategy that led them to that point.
i think we can evaluate based on his role. He was, at a minimum, one third of the TOA.
That's cool if you want to do that. I'm not comfortable with it. I wouldn't like it if I was the boss of an organization and people outside the building were evaluating me based on the decisions of others that I may or may not have agreed with. They'd be evaluating my performance based on what they think they know of 1/3 of my "say" on decisions they don't a thing about how they were made or who, in fact, made them.
There's no way for us to know how often he and Childress (or Frazier in 2011) disagreed or how to specifically attribute each draft choice, pick by pick, to a specific decision-maker.
Precisely! And you're still comfortable?
In many (perhaps most) cases, they may have been on the same page.
Again, you don't take issue with using words like "many", "probably" and "may?"
We can consider him at least 33% responsible for all draft decisions prior to 2012 and considering all of the above, including reports that he had final say, probably much more responsible than that.
There's more of that 33.3% and "probably" stuff.
The bottom line is he was heavily involved, involved enough to remain with the team after Childress was fired, involved enough to be promoted to GM, presumably based on his prior performance. If he was just getting out of the way of the head coaches all along, that promotion seems pretty unlikely. The promotion suggests his role was significant and then expanded.
So the Wilfs saw fit to fire one of the 33.3% and promote the other. That seems to be a vote in favor of Rick's performance.
Spielman's essentially been calling the shots in the draft for a decade and he's certainly been running the scouting/evaluation aspect of the Vikes draft for that long. Good and bad, he's easily been the biggest, most consistent voice in that process for the Vikes since 2006.
Sure, but he hasn't been the only one. Not until 2012 anyway. Again, I'm cool with you starting your evaluation prior to 2012. I'm just not comfortable with that approach.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

Post by chicagopurple »

all this means is that we hold onto mediocre players too long, and, or, that our coaches have done a poor job of winning with good players. Either way, our drafting and coaching has not got the job the done for over a decade. 40 yrs and no Super Bowl appearances.
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Re: Spielman best drafter in NFL last decade

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dead_poet wrote:I read your comment as evaluating him based on more than his drafting ability. Apologies if I got that wrong.
No worries. i'm just trying to stick to the subject at hand (for once). ;)
I don't care what was reported. Has this been confirmed?
Sorry, I should have been clear. The reports contained confirmation from the Vikings about Spielman's role. The team confirmed that he had the final call on draft day. I'd point you to one of them but they're over 5 years old and I can't find one.
That's cool if you want to do that. I'm not comfortable with it. I wouldn't like it if I was the boss of an organization and people outside the building were evaluating me based on the decisions of others that I may or may not have agreed with. They'd be evaluating my performance based on what they think they know of 1/3 of my "say" on decisions they don't a thing about how they were made or who, in fact, made them.
Precisely! And you're still comfortable?
Yes because, as I said, the Vikings confirmed that the final call in the draft was Spielman's. He was in charge. Even his current bio at Vikings.com says he directed the Vikings drafts and personnel from 2007-15. There were undoubtedly other voices in the room but the final call was his, just as it is now. If we're going to quibble over how much he was influenced by coaches then we might as well continue the same line of questioning now because Zimmer undoubtedly has significant input when it comes to the draft. How do we know which players were "Zimmer" picks and which were "Spielman" picks?
There's more of that 33.3% and "probably" stuff.
It was meant as a concession to your doubts. :) I don't have any doubt, as I've indicated above. Since 2007, Spielman's been directing the draft for the Vikings. He had the final say. If we need to know exactly which picks were his idea, or which were compromises he was willing to make, then we might as well extend that line of questioning right up to the present and include every other GM with a coach in his ear (ie: all of them). Spielman made the picks. They're his picks.
So the Wilfs saw fit to fire one of the 33.3% and promote the other. That seems to be a vote in favor of Rick's performance.
Yes, that's exactly what I was suggesting. It also suggests that he was already playing a very significant role.
Sure, but he hasn't been the only one. Not until 2012 anyway.
As I said above, he's not the only one now either.

I'm not sure what the point of all this was... :confused: I just don't think that percentage (45.3) of draft picks retained since 2007 alone indicates Spielman has done an elite job of drafting over that period.
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