march 9 is the kalil deadline

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Mothman
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by Mothman »

dead_poet wrote:That's what makes this so tricky. I think teams would be incredibly weary of signing a guy that has been one of the worst starting LTs for much of his career who has at LEAST 4-5 known knee surgeries on his resume (some of them as I point below having a "last resort" feeling). No team is going to make a heavy long-term financial commitment to a guy like that.
That "one of the worst starting LTs" designation is debatable, in my opinion. The injury history would be a concern but he's still a young, experienced player at a sought-after position. I think he'd have value in the free agent market.
I don't see why using Fusco's deal wouldn't work an example where 2016 he gets most of the guaranteed cash up front and spreading the cap hit out beyond 2017 so making it palatable to cut him in 2017 if they feel like it with minor repercussions
.

It might not work because Kalil and his agent might not view his prospects as you do. He may not see himself as nothing more than a stopgap solution who could play for the Vikings in the short term while they look for or develop his replacement. He might not want to settle for that. Right now, the team will owe him $11 million next year and, like you, they would probably prefer to move on when there's clearly a good option on their roster rather than cutting him without one, hoping to replace him with a free agent or being forced to draft a new starting left tackle. He's all they've got and that's leverage. I don't see much incentive for him to sign an unfavorable deal for less money and less security in the future when he could stand pat and force the Vikes to either pay him the $11 million, roll the dice on replacing him or offer him a more favorable extension.

One possible incentive: if he likes playing for the Vikes and wants to stay for that reason. That could lead to compromise.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by dead_poet »

fiestavike wrote:I'm assuming there is a good chance injuries could hamper them. I don't feel comfortable planning on them as starters. back surgery and achilles heel injury for a 350 pound guy who was already a big heavy footed concern me. I would like this team to be in the position that if Sully and Loadholt can return, its a bonus.
I already posted in another thread about how the Achilles is not the death cry for an offensive tackle, especially one suffered so "early." Jason Peters had the exact same injury March 2012, had surgery, RE-ruptured it that May, had surgery, missed 2012, made the pro bowl/All-Pro in 2013, signed a lucrative contract extension, made the second-team All-Pro in 2014 and Pro Bowl in 2014 & 2015. He was a year older than Phil when he tore his own Achilles. From what I understand it takes between 9-10 months to recover (sometimes more, sometimes less). If that timetable is correct and his recovery has gone well, Phil should be on track for camp. I feel comfortable with Phil as a starter if all is going well. I'd feel better at a lower price tag but I don't see how Phil isn't our best option at RT, by far. Rick won't sign another starting-caliber FA RT unless he's convinced Phil can't return to form. In which case Phil should be released. But there's NO indication that Phil cannot recover from this and be as productive as before. And I certainly don't trust yet ANOTHER rookie as starting RT (not after the Clemmings experiment).

If Sullivan can't go, we have Berger that has proven he can start in his place. Sullivan's injury scares me more but, once again, we can't/shouldn't pay Sullivan what he's making as a backup. We just don't know how his recovery is going either and how/if it will affect him in 2016.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by dead_poet »

Mothman wrote:That "one of the worst starting LTs" designation is debatable, in my opinion.
OK. Outside of his rookie year, how do you think he's performed? Take your pick in metrics (or use the 'ol eyeball) but prior to this year I don't see how you can view Kalil's play as even "average." He's had one good year (2012) and one OK year (this year). The rest? You might have a short memory (which is probably a good thing).
The injury history would be a concern but he's still a young, experienced player at a sought-after position. I think he'd have value in the free agent market.
I'm not saying he wouldn't have any value. But I would imagine his tape and injury history would be a pretty big red flag for any GM. If the Vikings cut him and he signs a "lucrative" multi-year deal with someone I'd be beyond shocked. His history suggests a contract that lets one get out fairly easily. I'd be hard-pressed to name another starting left tackle who has had more knee surgeries than Kalil in his short career.
It might not work because Kalil and his agent might not view his prospects as you do. He may not see himself as nothing more than a stopgap solution who could play for the Vikings in the short term while they look for or develop his replacement.
That's fine. That's why "Prove-it" contracts also exist. This is also why I'm not in favor of just cutting him outright. I think he still has value to the Vikings but I'm also sure as heck looking to bring in competition. His play hasn't warranted much long-term security but it's fine if you think otherwise.
I don't see much incentive for him to sign an unfavorable deal for less money and less security in the future when he could stand pat and force the Vikes to either pay him the $11 million, roll the dice on replacing him or offer him a more favorable extension.

One possible incentive: if he likes playing for the Vikes and wants to stay for that reason. That could lead to compromise.
I think a compromise is a short extension, which is what I'm suggesting. I'm not suggesting an "unfavorable" deal for Kalil. I haven't thrown out numbers. But certainly lower than $11 million/year. Under $7 million/year wouldn't be unfavorable either, depending on how it's structured.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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dead_poet wrote: OK. Outside of his rookie year, how do you think he's performed? Take your pick in metrics (or use the 'ol eyeball) but prior to this year I don't see how you can view Kalil's play as even "average." He's had one good year (2012) and one OK year (this year). The rest? You might have a short memory (which is probably a good thing).
I'm not saying he wouldn't have any value. But I would imagine his tape and injury history would be a pretty big red flag for any GM. If the Vikings cut him and he signs a "lucrative" multi-year deal with someone I'd be beyond shocked. His history suggests a contract that lets one get out fairly easily. I'd be hard-pressed to name another starting left tackle who has had more knee surgeries than Kalil in his short career.
That's fine. That's why "Prove-it" contracts also exist. This is also why I'm not in favor of just cutting him outright. I think he still has value to the Vikings but I'm also sure as heck looking to bring in competition. His play hasn't warranted much long-term security but it's fine if you think otherwise.
I didn't say I think otherwise. I just think you're underestimating his current negotiating position. I believe he has quite a bit of leverage and I think you might be surprised by what he could get on the free agent market. You may think he's one of the worst starting LTs in the game but is that how he would be perceived around the league, by teams that might be looking for help at the position?
I think a compromise is a short extension, which is what I'm suggesting. I'm not suggesting an "unfavorable" deal for Kalil. I haven't thrown out numbers. But certainly lower than $11 million/year. Under $7 million/year wouldn't be unfavorable either, depending on how it's structured
.

Maybe I misunderstood something along the way but I just don't see how they're going to reduce his salary/cap hit in 2016 without making a financial commitment to him in 2017. Without any commitment beyond next season, what's his incentive to accept less money? If the answer is "because he won't be able to get that much in free agency" I'm simply saying that may not be true or at least I don't think the Vikes can count on him to believe that. In other words, I doubt approaching him with an offer to pay him $7 million in 2016 and telling him to take it or he'll be released to test his worth on the free agent market will work. He might easily result in Kalil saying "Thanks but I think I'll test the market".

I could be wrong, Maybe he'd agree to it. :confused:
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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Mothman wrote:IYou may think he's one of the worst starting LTs in the game but is that how he would be perceived around the league, by teams that might be looking for help at the position?
If they watch his tape I'm not sure how they come to any other conclusion. I'm not saying he's THE worst starting LT in the league. He may have a market. I'm just not sure that market would necessarily be anymore than what the Vikings would offer him on a short-term deal. And I'm not sure the contract he would land would anoint him starter without legitimate competition.
Maybe I misunderstood something along the way but I just don't see how they're going to reduce his salary/cap hit in 2016 without making a financial commitment to him in 2017. Without any commitment beyond next season, what's his incentive to accept less money? If the answer is "because he won't be able to get that much in free agency" I'm simply saying that may not be true or at least I don't think the Vikes can count on him to believe that. In other words, I doubt approaching him with an offer to pay him $7 million in 2016 and telling him to take it or he'll be released to test his worth on the free agent market will work. He might easily result in Kalil saying "Thanks but I think I'll test the market".

I could be wrong, Maybe he'd agree to it. :confused:
Again, I'm not saying they wouldn't offer him something in 2017. I'm saying that it wouldn't have to be a lot of guaranteed money beyond 2016. It could be a decent base salary/roster bonus. Essentially if he plays well in 2016 then he would earn his 2017 base salary/roster bonus/etc and be on the 53 again in 2017. If he didn't, the Vikings could get out fairly easily without a large sum of dead money/cap hit sustained. I'm sorry if I'm not making that clear.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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dead_poet wrote: If they watch his tape I'm not sure how they come to any other conclusion. I'm not saying he's THE worst starting LT in the league. He may have a market. I'm just not sure that market would necessarily be anymore than what the Vikings would offer him on a short-term deal. And I'm not sure the contract he would land would anoint him starter without legitimate competition.
Again, I'm not saying they wouldn't offer him something in 2017. I'm saying that it wouldn't have to be a lot of guaranteed money beyond 2016. It could be a decent base salary/roster bonus. Essentially if he plays well in 2016 then he would earn his 2017 base salary/roster bonus/etc and be on the 53 again in 2017. If he didn't, the Vikings could get out fairly easily without a large sum of dead money/cap hit sustained. I'm sorry if I'm not making that clear.
No problem. Thanks for clarifying it. I had a different impression when reading your discussion with FiestaVike.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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I personally believe that quality offensive lineman hardly ever hit free agency. Coming off being a Rams fan I was pumped when they signed Jake Long. I thought he would be great and that the injuries were behind him. They weren't and he wasn't . Typically there is a reason they hit free agency. If they were great they'd probably get franchised. They also have a guard Rodger Saffold who is always hurt. It's a bad idea to rely on players coming off injury(ies) and it sounds like Kalil just isn't going to pan out or have a particularly long career.

With that said I'm not sure who else they can get to play LT. A trade for Joe Thomas would be an amazing stopgap while Sporano grooms Clemings and possibly a draft pick. I'm not sure what they could offer for Thomas other than draft picks. Is it worth it to trade a 2nd? I trust Sprano and personally think he is the second best offensive line coach in the NFL behind Mike Munchak. I would like to see them sign a few cheap young guys and draft some lineman in the middle rounds to coach up.

My big question is if you cut Kalil who do you sign in free agency?
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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dead_poet wrote: As I understand it:

2015 offseason: Arthoscopic surgery (both knees) + injections designed to help patients deal with joint pain. Specifically, had both knees scoped (January 2015) then received a Regenexx procedure, which removes blood, processes it and re-injects into knee (March 2015). Plus platelet-rich plasma therapy to aid healing.

May 2014: Had "minor knee surgery" prior to OTAs. This one was kept pretty hush-hush for whatever reason. Kalil only said he got something "cleaned up." In at least one interview I believe Kalil said he wished he'd had surgery after 2013 season instead of trying to rehab (before he actually went through with it). It sounds like he was playing really injured in 2013 and into 2014.

Prior to 2012 season: Kalil had at least one knee injury in college and underwent surgery prior to joining the Vikings

Looks like at least two separate surgeries for both knees and another for at least one, increasing in severity/invasiveness. I think they can be considered "chronic" at this point.
Don't have the link anymore but Poet pretty much summed it up. He's had his knee's worked on an awful lot for it all to not be related.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by fiestavike »

mondry wrote: Don't have the link anymore but Poet pretty much summed it up. He's had his knee's worked on an awful lot for it all to not be related.
It would be interesting if he simply retired during the offseason and rendered all our conversation mute. :rofl:
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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Maelstrom88 wrote:I personally believe that quality offensive lineman hardly ever hit free agency. Coming off being a Rams fan I was pumped when they signed Jake Long. I thought he would be great and that the injuries were behind him. They weren't and he wasn't . Typically there is a reason they hit free agency. If they were great they'd probably get franchised. They also have a guard Rodger Saffold who is always hurt. It's a bad idea to rely on players coming off injury(ies) and it sounds like Kalil just isn't going to pan out or have a particularly long career.

With that said I'm not sure who else they can get to play LT. A trade for Joe Thomas would be an amazing stopgap while Sporano grooms Clemings and possibly a draft pick. I'm not sure what they could offer for Thomas other than draft picks. Is it worth it to trade a 2nd? I trust Sprano and personally think he is the second best offensive line coach in the NFL behind Mike Munchak. I would like to see them sign a few cheap young guys and draft some lineman in the middle rounds to coach up.

My big question is if you cut Kalil who do you sign in free agency?

an option i'd consider would be mike harris. he played left tackle with the chargers for a while and was one of our better lineman this past year at right guard. put him at left tackle and let fusco go back to right guard where he was considerably better last season. then if sullivan and loadholt can come back your only major hole is left guard which could be filled by a high draft pick or a free agent. plus it would give us incredible depth with 2015 starters berger and clemmings being top backups who can play multiple positions.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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Maelstrom88 wrote:I personally believe that quality offensive lineman hardly ever hit free agency. Coming off being a Rams fan I was pumped when they signed Jake Long. I thought he would be great and that the injuries were behind him. They weren't and he wasn't . Typically there is a reason they hit free agency. If they were great they'd probably get franchised. They also have a guard Rodger Saffold who is always hurt. It's a bad idea to rely on players coming off injury(ies) and it sounds like Kalil just isn't going to pan out or have a particularly long career.

With that said I'm not sure who else they can get to play LT. A trade for Joe Thomas would be an amazing stopgap while Sporano grooms Clemings and possibly a draft pick. I'm not sure what they could offer for Thomas other than draft picks. Is it worth it to trade a 2nd? I trust Sprano and personally think he is the second best offensive line coach in the NFL behind Mike Munchak. I would like to see them sign a few cheap young guys and draft some lineman in the middle rounds to coach up.

My big question is if you cut Kalil who do you sign in free agency?
Every Year, some really good quality Offensive Lineman hit the market and move around, however there are always some question marks about them in the off season, and its pretty hit and miss as far as who ends up being good. Mike Iupati was available last year, went to the Cardinals, and has been solid, but not as dominant as he was for a few years in SF. Buffalo Bills best O-Lineman this past year was Richie Incognito, and although he has a bit of drama baggage following him around, he played well. Denver Picked up Evan Mathis, and he has done very well for them this year. These guys with the exception of Iupati were pretty cheap against the cap as well. (Incognito 1.1 Mil, Mathis 2.8 Mil)

Im all for building through the draft as our main source of new players, but when there are some guys out there with good potential and fairly low risk, I don't see why we don't take a few more chances on these guys. We don't have to sign them to multi year deals, just fill in some gaps while we develope some players we drafted. There will be some guys this year as well that for one reason or another will be in the open market, its just finding those guys, and trying to avoid guys like Charlie Johnson. But thats why Spielman gets paid the big bucks and not me.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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Jusr from watching him him last year, and even throughout the season, he would get worse as the game went on, and the season went on. I think hes got something wrong with him. But the coaches have to see this too, and must think he is still the best at LT, and isnt overpaid. I think he has been so below average, he was as bad as Clemmings. Lets get a better LT. If AD is sticking around its a must. If we want to see if Teddy can improve, we need a better LT. Do let one season make Kalil is the LT of the future.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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PurpleKoolaid wrote:Jusr from watching him him last year, and even throughout the season, he would get worse as the game went on, and the season went on. I think hes got something wrong with him. But the coaches have to see this too, and must think he is still the best at LT, and isnt overpaid. I think he has been so below average, he was as bad as Clemmings.
This is so far from the truth it's laughable. Understand he was dealing with a foot injury the last few weeks. Prior to that I daresay he was pretty darn average. There were a lot of problems with our offensive line last year but Kalil, for a change, was largely not one of them.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by losperros »

dead_poet wrote:This is so far from the truth it's laughable. Understand he was dealing with a foot injury the last few weeks. Prior to that I daresay he was pretty darn average. There were a lot of problems with our offensive line last year but Kalil, for a change, was largely not one of them.
Agreed. I realize this has been brought up but it does make one wonder if actually Kalil's injury history is the real negative against him. Maybe his rookie season was good because he was healthy for the most part. Who knows? If Kalil could dodge the darn injury bug, maybe the Vikings would sign him to an extension in a heartbeat. Maybe they will anyway.
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Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

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losperros wrote: Agreed. I realize this has been brought up but it does make one wonder if actually Kalil's injury history is the real negative against him. Maybe his rookie season was good because he was healthy for the most part. Who knows? If Kalil could dodge the darn injury bug, maybe the Vikings would sign him to an extension in a heartbeat. Maybe they will anyway.
I don't even think there's much doubt at this point, he was great his rookie year and from what I remember he was mostly healthy that year. Since then it seems like he's always had a knee (or both) scoped after every season or theirs a foot thing or whatever and since then his play has been bad to mediocre. Personally, I don't think Kalil will ever be at a point where he can play a full season at 100% like his rookie year.

The question becomes, how likely it is that he's injured enough where his play falls below mediocre? I mean this was technically his best year since his rookie season and he still left a LOT to be desired. I fear a best case scenario with Kalil is a season like we just saw and worst case he becomes basically unplayable outside of necessity. I'm not seeing the upside and I'm not sure how a guy who gives up 2 game ending strip sacks (especially freeny's where he completely sucked on that crucial play) wasn't a problem. Was he the main problem, no I guess not, but he certainly was a problem at many different times this year.
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