march 9 is the kalil deadline

A forum for the hard core Minnesota Vikings fan. Discuss upcoming games, opponents, trades, draft or what ever is on the minds of Viking fans!

Moderator: Moderators

mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3836
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN
x 117

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by mansquatch »

For me the point is more that when it gets down to it, the difference between Kalil and say Tyron Smith or Jake Long is ~25 pressures a season. I numbers above say the gap is likely between 1 and 2 plays each game. So to me there are series of questions to answer:

1.) Is there a player available who can make up this difference, whether it be FA or Draft (I think Draft is doubtful at best). If the answer to this is No, then the choice is obvious: Resign Kalil.

2.) If Question #1 is a yes, then what is the incremental cost difference for said elite player vs. what we would pay Kalil over the course of 5 years. (Not just this upcoming year.)

3.) How big of an issue are those 1-2 plays of pressure for the team vs. other issues? (like Safety Play or WR production, just as examples)

3.) What else could be had for the incremental cost difference in question 2?

Assuming #1 is a yes, I think #2 is the big question. This is also what I mean by "silos". Kalil in a "Silo" is the #18 Tackle, therefore "below average" and, being in a high profile position, a favorite goat of the fans. So by himself he is an obvious place to "upgrade". However, when looking at the whole team and it's needs, are Kalil's deficiencies (vs. the elite at his position) the biggest pain on the team? Furthermore, is fixing them worth the cost vs. solving other isuses?

A key thing Fans should think about during the offseason is the most basic question of economics: "As compared to what?" Yes Kalil is not the best LT, but in comparison to the best, is the $X of cap space and or trade equity needed to solve the problem worth the potential (note: not realized) value of the solution? More simply: Is it worth paying an extra $5MM - $8MM per season in cap space to have 25 fewer pressures? My sense is we could get quite the guard for that cost and save some pressure up the middle (and get a boost in our running game) while keeping Kalil. Where is the best bang for the buck?
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi
User avatar
halfgiz
Career Elite Player
Posts: 2289
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:38 pm
x 111

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by halfgiz »

I think when you are trying to take the next step. And your playing the elite teams Kalil becomes a liability.
And he showed that against the Cards & Seahawks. Bennett for the Seahawks was owning him.

As it stands right now, we don't know if Sparano can improve his game or not.
He will be getting paid as a top 10 tackle and his play is no where near that.
The difficult question is...do you bite the bullet and pay him one more year? Or deal with him now?
mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3836
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN
x 117

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by mansquatch »

Again, statistically he isn't that far off from the top 5 tackles. Not that he is top 5, but that overall the difference between 18 and 5 is pretty small. Denver won the SB with the 30th best LT in the league protecting a gimpy Peyton Manning. I still do not fine the replacing Kalil argument persuasive.

Also, where is the guarantee that they will pay him top 10 tackle money? They have signed no such deal. Even if he gets his money next season, it is because of his rookie deal. So what? Are they losing players because of Kalil's contract? I have not heard that case made anywhere. Also, if we use your logic we should have cut AP in 2014 since all he did was play 1 game and then embarrassed himself and the franchise for next 15 while earning an astronomical sum of money.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi
User avatar
jackal
Strong Safety
Posts: 11583
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 2:05 am
Location: California
x 5

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by jackal »

Again, statistically he isn't that far off from the top 5 tackles. Not that he is top 5, but that overall the difference between 18 and 5 is pretty small. Denver won the SB with the 30th best LT in the league protecting a gimpy Peyton Manning. I still do not fine the replacing Kalil argument persuasive.
Where are you getting these stats.. ??

I don't think is the worst in the league but pro bowl type player money he does not deserve....for any reason
no one expects the Spanish Inquisition!
slapnut19
Transition Player
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:10 am

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by slapnut19 »

jackal wrote: Where are you getting these stats.. ??

I don't think is the worst in the league but pro bowl type player money he does not deserve....for any reason

agreed. both pff and matt miller from bleacher report have kalil in the lower 25 percent of left tackles in the league. i keep hearing that we should just sign him for a team friendly extension. my question is why? he hasn't earned and extension and for the better part of three seasons has been a liability. it's time to move on, and there are several good options to replace him this offseason.
User avatar
halfgiz
Career Elite Player
Posts: 2289
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:38 pm
x 111

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by halfgiz »

Another thing that wasn't really mentioned.
When Minnesota ran the ball behind Kalil in 2015, the yards per carry average was lower than it was for any other Vikings lineman. Minnesota even had more success running the ball behind struggling rookie right tackle T.J. Clemmings last season.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
mondry
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8455
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:53 pm

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by mondry »

mansquatch wrote:For me the point is more that when it gets down to it, the difference between Kalil and say Tyron Smith or Jake Long is ~25 pressures a season. I numbers above say the gap is likely between 1 and 2 plays each game. So to me there are series of questions to answer:

1.) Is there a player available who can make up this difference, whether it be FA or Draft (I think Draft is doubtful at best). If the answer to this is No, then the choice is obvious: Resign Kalil.

2.) If Question #1 is a yes, then what is the incremental cost difference for said elite player vs. what we would pay Kalil over the course of 5 years. (Not just this upcoming year.)

3.) How big of an issue are those 1-2 plays of pressure for the team vs. other issues? (like Safety Play or WR production, just as examples)

3.) What else could be had for the incremental cost difference in question 2?

Assuming #1 is a yes, I think #2 is the big question. This is also what I mean by "silos". Kalil in a "Silo" is the #18 Tackle, therefore "below average" and, being in a high profile position, a favorite goat of the fans. So by himself he is an obvious place to "upgrade". However, when looking at the whole team and it's needs, are Kalil's deficiencies (vs. the elite at his position) the biggest pain on the team? Furthermore, is fixing them worth the cost vs. solving other isuses?

A key thing Fans should think about during the offseason is the most basic question of economics: "As compared to what?" Yes Kalil is not the best LT, but in comparison to the best, is the $X of cap space and or trade equity needed to solve the problem worth the potential (note: not realized) value of the solution? More simply: Is it worth paying an extra $5MM - $8MM per season in cap space to have 25 fewer pressures? My sense is we could get quite the guard for that cost and save some pressure up the middle (and get a boost in our running game) while keeping Kalil. Where is the best bang for the buck?
Problem is if they accept his option he's going to be paid like an elite probowl tackle!

You're really over simplifying it when you talk about the pressures like that. Sure on paper it's 1-2 per game but that adds up and each pressure can turn into a drive ending sack or a drive ending throwaway to avoid a negative play so they're a big deal. There are also 5 guys on the line, if each one gives up 1-2 more pressure per game than a good player does you're talking about 5-10 of those drive ending plays occurring per game more than a top line. Those 1-2 plays are basically the difference between good and bad.

The other thing you're neglecting entirely is that Kalil is our worst lineman in the run game which is a problem when you want to give Peterson 350+ carries a year. Upgrading him is by far our biggest need right now.
User avatar
PurpleKoolaid
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8641
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:52 pm
x 28

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by PurpleKoolaid »

He is simply getting too much money and too bg of a cap hit, for 2 poor years. He had the rookie year, that was pretty great, and then average to below average play. I think he is hurt, and has been for 2 years. What baffles me is why the Vikings staff has been addressing that, or if they have been, why keep it quite. Kalil needs a big pay cut, as does greenway and newman, Wallace just needs to be gone IMO, unless Norv can find a way where Wallace and Teddy can play together.
dead_poet
Commissioner
Posts: 24788
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2007 2:30 pm
Location: Des Moines, Iowa
x 108

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by dead_poet »

.@austincbelisle and myself dive deep into the Matt Kalil conundrum the #Vikings have found themselves in
http://vikn.gs/1YjxJBk
“Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that.” --- Bill Shankly
User avatar
halfgiz
Career Elite Player
Posts: 2289
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:38 pm
x 111

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by halfgiz »

After everything I have been reading my thinking is, Kalil is going to return on his $11M 5th year option which will become fully guaranteed Wednesday afternoon. Not unless Rick has a wildcard up his sleeve.
dead_poet
Commissioner
Posts: 24788
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2007 2:30 pm
Location: Des Moines, Iowa
x 108

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by dead_poet »

halfgiz wrote:After everything I have been reading my thinking is, Kalil is going to return on his $11M 5th year option which will become fully guaranteed Wednesday afternoon. Not unless Rick has a wildcard up his sleeve.
It's looking that way. Given the lack of any competent option behind him, no guarantees in FA to acquire a player on par or better (without grossly overpaying due to having zero leverage in negotiations with a gaping hole at the position), or necessitating drafting a LT in the first or second round (no matter who is available) it's looking likely he's going to get one last shot to see if he can stay healthy and improve after his best season since his rookie year. I wouldn't be thrilled but I'd get it given the circumstances. If forced to go the rookie route it's possible the LT position would be even worse than a year ago, a scary thought.
“Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that.” --- Bill Shankly
User avatar
halfgiz
Career Elite Player
Posts: 2289
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:38 pm
x 111

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by halfgiz »

Which makes me wonder if they keep Kalil if Loadholt is going to get let go then.
User avatar
Mothman
Defensive Tackle
Posts: 38292
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2003 11:48 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 409

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by Mothman »

halfgiz wrote:Which makes me wonder if they keep Kalil if Loadholt is going to get let go then.
I think that's what will happen unless Loadholt takes a pay cut.
slapnut19
Transition Player
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:10 am

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by slapnut19 »

i still think there's an outside chance he gets traded after wednesday. a team like seattle with his college coach carroll might take a chance on him, even if it's just for one season. either way i think today is going to be the day when this gets sorted out. teams can start talking to agents at 9 am pacific time this morning and contracts can be agreed to. if we are quiet on the free agent o line front then kalil is probably here for this season.
mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3836
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN
x 117

Re: march 9 is the kalil deadline

Post by mansquatch »

My point on looking at that stats was the identify the difference between an elite player and and a non-elite. The pressures thing was brought up in one of the previously linked articles earlier in the thread. My interest in the stats was to try and articulate the different between Kalil and an elite player. In terms of pressures, it came down to essentially 1-2 pressure a game.

It is easy to get lost in terms like good or elite or whatever. Those words have a certain connotation, but we rarely dissect and quantify what the actaul difference is. In the case above I think there is debate to be had on whether cleaning up those 1-2 plays is worth the risk and/or cost vs. allocating the cap in other places on the roster.

I do not feel that Kalil's play squares with elite tackle money, but that doens't mean he won't get it. As Jim pointed out, the Vikings are not exactly in a strong bargaining position here. There has been a common question with all the anti-Kalil / cut Kalil sentiment that has never been answered: If not Kalil, then who? IMO, there is a ton of risk and very little reward at LT for the Vikings right now. I see their options as follows:

Try to trade up to get an elite prospect in the draft, but at what cost? They'd have to sacrifice most of their draft to do that.

They could try to trade for a Jake Long type player, but again, they'd lose draft picks and maybe a player or two. Is that worth it?

They could sign a big $$$ FA guy, but even then there is no guarrantee that guy will be better and you are stuck with his high $$$ FA contract. Now we have elite money being paid for 3-5 years instead of just one AND we don't know if the guy will be better.

For the above three choices: Iupati got elite OL money and was crappy for the first half of the season in 2015, so there will likely be growing pains with any of the above choices as it will take some time for the new guy to settle in with his teammates.

Last option is to pay Kalil his contract for one year and then be able to negotiate with him. While not a great option, is the best option of the above, IMO. It presents the team with the least amount of risk vs. the other choices and it doesn't saddle them with oppressive future costs. Furthermore, there will be no growing pains as Kalil is already entrenched as a part of the OL.

My guess is Kalil will get paid not because he deserves it, but because given the above circumstances it is the decision that makes the most sense for the Vikings at this time.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi
Post Reply