Scoring

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Mothman
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Scoring

Post by Mothman »

The Vikings loss to Green Bay marked the 12th time since Zimmer took over as HC that the Vikings, as a team, have scored fewer than 20 points in a game. This disturbs me so I decided to compare that number to the previous two seasons and do the same with the defense, just to get a general feel for how much the team is improving or regressing in these areas.

20 points is below league average but I like that threshold because I feel a good NFL offense should be able to manage at least that much (basically 2 TDs and 2 FGs) in most games.

Anyway, here the numbers, along with the league scoring average for each year:

Games with fewer than 20 points scored:

2015: 3
2014: 9
2013: 4
2012: 4 (includes playoff loss)

In other words, in 12 of their past 26 games (46%), the Vikings have scored fewer than 20 points. That only happened in 8 of their previous 33 (24.5%).

Games with fewer than 20 points allowed:

2015: 6
2014: 7
2013: 1
2012: 6

In 13 of their last 26 games (50%) the Vikes allowed fewer than 20 points. That strikes me as quite good and a very clear improvement since they only accomplished that in 6 games out of their previous 33 (18%)… and just once in 2013!

League average for points scored:

2015: 23
2014: 22.6
2013: 23.4
2012: 22.8
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Re: Scoring

Post by The Breeze »

Jim, it's almost as if the two aspects have switched places.
I see a common chord in that Fraizer's system was antiquated, where Zimmer's is highly innovative.
Maybe the same can be said for Norv's system in terms of it not being dynamic in the way defenses have to prepare for it.
I sense a strong ego at play here where perhaps changing things up, scripting a set of plays for CP for example, would equate to admitting being wrong.
Just my sense...born of frustration at this point.
This defense, while not yet elite, is doing a damn fine job. Kinda feels like a bit of a waste and the reverse of years past.
Time will tell~
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Re: Scoring

Post by mansquatch »

OK Jim, I'll nibble.

Here is another set of stats:
PF/PA 2013 - 2015
Year PF PA Diff
2013 24.4 30 -5.6
2014 20.3 21.4 -1.1
2015 21.1 18.4 2.7

Improvement in the differential under Zimmer was 4.5 in 2015 and is 3.8 so far in 2015. Given that offensive production decreased from 2013 to 2015, this change is attributable almost entirely to the defense. 2013 to 2014 we saw PA decrease by a whopping 8.6 per game and from 2014 to 2015 we've seen an impressive increase of 3 points per game. Initial conclusion: Leslie Frasier and Allan Willams have no business coaching defense in the NFL...

The Offense under turner has been worse than it was under Musgrave in 2013, however I think it is fair to ask if some of the extra points in 2013 were a result of always playing from behind due to the horrible defense that season. (ranked 32 in PA) What strikes me as a bigger indictment is that from 2014 to 2015 we are only seeing an improvement of 0.8 points per game, despite having AP back after not having him for almost all of 2014. Are the OL woes entirely to blame for this? My guess is the answer is maybe?

The issue I have is it is really hard to definitively say who's fault it really is given how bad the OL has been this year. It feels like someone on that unit is not competitive on at least 75% of the plays and therefore someone else has to make more of a play to overcome the short coming.

It easy to say production is down or ask why we do not see more of this pass or that pass, but really is it Turner or is it the talent level on the field inhibiting what can realistically be called? I've seen articles and heard interviews with him that allude to this. More to my point though, how can we say it is one thing or the other? I think the coaches know what the issues are, but they are not throwing young guys under the bus. Let's face it, would you throw the R side of the line under the bus? Clemmings shouldn't be starting this year, he is way too young and inexperienced. He is there because of Injury. Are Fusco's issues transition related, or are they having to shift protection in such a way to the Right side that exposes his weaknesses more? I don't have answer. What I do know is that right now Matt Kalil is our best player on the OL and he himself has his issues. That to me is THE story this year.

Of course all that being said, that doesn't mean our pass catchers and QB would be perfect if not for the OL, they have their own problems. But it is really hard to look at these stats and blame one position or the other when on any given play it could be the poor OL screwing up or the young QB or some WR?

They obviously are not getting the point production out of the offense that they need. The cause of that is really hard to pin on one person though.

As an aside, the comparisons to Ponder are IMO in numbers only. TB is not Ponder when you watch him play. They are VERY different players. Ponder had happy feet, TB runs, but he is always running to pass. Ponder was a woefully inaccurate passer, even his completions required the WR to make some contortion of his body to make the grab. TB doesn't have this issue. Ponder would make criminal mistakes with the ball leading to INTs, TB rarely does this. I get that the stat lines are similar, but the way they play the game is very different. Ask youself, if you put Ponder on this team right now and had him play all the games we've played, do you think we'd be 7-3 right now? I don't.
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Re: Scoring

Post by Mothman »

The Breeze wrote:Jim, it's almost as if the two aspects have switched places.
I see a common chord in that Fraizer's system was antiquated, where Zimmer's is highly innovative.
Maybe the same can be said for Norv's system in terms of it not being dynamic in the way defenses have to prepare for it.
I sense a strong ego at play here where perhaps changing things up, scripting a set of plays for CP for example, would equate to admitting being wrong.
Just my sense...born of frustration at this point.
This defense, while not yet elite, is doing a damn fine job. Kinda feels like a bit of a waste and the reverse of years past.
Time will tell~
Good post. It really is a reversal of the team's situation and it's definitely frustrating.

You make an interesting point about the common chord. I think personnel has a lot do with how effective these schemes are when implemented.

You may be right about the egos at work too.

They need to get a handle on it. Scoring less than 20 points a game at an almost 50% clip is unacceptable. They're going to have a hard time becoming a serious contender if they can't start playing offense more consistently and productively than that.
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Re: Scoring

Post by dead_poet »

For some context...

New Orleans games with 20 or fewer points scored:

2015: 3
2014: 5
2013: 6

Atlanta games with 20 or fewer points scored:

2015: 3
2014: 7
2013: 6

Both top-10 scoring offenses the last three years I believe.
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Re: Scoring

Post by Mothman »

mansquatch wrote:OK Jim, I'll nibble.

Here is another set of stats:
PF/PA 2013 - 2015
Year PF PA Diff
2013 24.4 30 -5.6
2014 20.3 21.4 -1.1
2015 21.1 18.4 2.7

Improvement in the differential under Zimmer was 4.5 in 2015 and is 3.8 so far in 2015. Given that offensive production decreased from 2013 to 2015, this change is attributable almost entirely to the defense. 2013 to 2014 we saw PA decrease by a whopping 8.6 per game and from 2014 to 2015 we've seen an impressive increase of 3 points per game. Initial conclusion: Leslie Frasier and Allan Willams have no business coaching defense in the NFL...

The Offense under turner has been worse than it was under Musgrave in 2013, however I think it is fair to ask if some of the extra points in 2013 were a result of always playing from behind due to the horrible defense that season. (ranked 32 in PA) What strikes me as a bigger indictment is that from 2014 to 2015 we are only seeing an improvement of 0.8 points per game, despite having AP back after not having him for almost all of 2014. Are the OL woes entirely to blame for this? My guess is the answer is maybe?

The issue I have is it is really hard to definitively say who's fault it really is given how bad the OL has been this year. It feels like someone on that unit is not competitive on at least 75% of the plays and therefore someone else has to make more of a play to overcome the short coming.

It easy to say production is down or ask why we do not see more of this pass or that pass, but really is it Turner or is it the talent level on the field inhibiting what can realistically be called?
I think it's both.
Of course all that being said, that doesn't mean our pass catchers and QB would be perfect if not for the OL, they have their own problems. But it is really hard to look at these stats and blame one position or the other when on any given play it could be the poor OL screwing up or the young QB or some WR? They obviously are not getting the point production out of the offense that they need. The cause of that is really hard to pin on one person though.
I agree and I'm not trying to do that.
As an aside, the comparisons to Ponder are IMO in numbers only. TB is not Ponder when you watch him play. They are VERY different players. Ponder had happy feet, TB runs, but he is always running to pass. Ponder was a woefully inaccurate passer, even his completions required the WR to make some contortion of his body to make the grab. TB doesn't have this issue. Ponder would make criminal mistakes with the ball leading to INTs, TB rarely does this. I get that the stat lines are similar, but the way they play the game is very different. Ask youself, if you put Ponder on this team right now and had him play all the games we've played, do you think we'd be 7-3 right now? I don't.
I don't even care. Honestly, this thread was NOT intended to be about Bridgewater vs. Ponder, Turner vs. Musgrave, Zimmer vs. Frazier, etc. It's simply a look at what's happening in terms of the basic scoring numbers for the Vikings and against the Vikings. The only real point I'm trying to make is that the numbers show clear (even dramatic) improvement in terms of points allowed and clear regression in the team's ability to score. Since the changes made since 2013 were obviously meant to make the Vikes a better team, the numbers from 2012 and 2013 are only included to provide some basic context, so we can see where the team has been scoring-wise and get a feel for where they're going. I think we have reason to be greatly encouraged by what's happening on defense and greatly discouraged by what's happening on offense. As I said in response to Breeze, scoring less than 20 points per game nearly half the time is simply unacceptable.
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Re: Scoring

Post by The Breeze »

@Jim
I think personnel has a lot to do with the poor performance. It was also the mantra of the Fraizer era defense. I agree that the offense is coming up short in the personnel dept. due to injury and whatnot...but that doesn't excuse the lack of schematic adjustment to make up the difference in the short term.
It's speculation, but I keep feeling that if the scheme is tweaked to play into the strengths of tthe athletes on hand that they will learn bad habits that are incorrectible....which in itself is what I see as an inflexible bad habit in terms of having success deep into the season.
The consistantly good teams, of which there are few, employ innovation and unpredictability on both sides of the ball on almost a weekly basis, depending on the opponent and the characteristics of their own personnel.
I see Zimmer doing that constantly.
-
@DP
So those Saints and Falcons teams had several games where they scored 40+ points?
I don't see that happening here.
We look like the Bears before Cutler showed up.
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Re: Scoring

Post by Mothman »

dead_poet wrote:For some context...

New Orleans games with 20 or fewer points scored:

2015: 3
2014: 5
2013: 6

Atlanta games with 20 or fewer points scored:

2015: 3
2014: 7
2013: 6

Both top-10 scoring offenses the last three years I believe.
Thanks for the numbers. You're correct about New Orleans but mistaken about Atlanta. They weren't a top 10 scoring offense in either 2013 (rank: 20th) or 2014 (rank: 12th-which is obviously still good).
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Re: Scoring

Post by chicagopurple »

I am often amazed at how you pull up these stats! I suspect you are either an engineer or finance guy...
I dont know if we can really compare these years without factoring in the quality of opponents they faced. Year to year we have had some very easy opponents. Others were far tougher schedules.
schemes aside, I see that Zim is running a nice tight ship. I see that tackling has regained the importance that it deserves...the era of the sloppy arm tackles has finally ended. The offensive scheme is hard to evaluate because there is NO OL in place. I like Norv's base concepts but he seems very ponderous and unable to fine tune his calls in game time.
The MOST frustrating things are that we are running on the clock...AP's shelf life is not infinite. Additionally, while I am patient with the idea of a young learning QB, I expect to see a small bit of improvement each month. Not regression/stagnation.......
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Re: Scoring

Post by Mothman »

chicagopurple wrote:I am often amazed at how you pull up these stats! I suspect you are either an engineer or finance guy...
I'm actually an illustrator. :)
I dont know if we can really compare these years without factoring in the quality of opponents they faced. Year to year we have had some very easy opponents. Others were far tougher schedules.
schemes aside, I see that Zim is running a nice tight ship. I see that tackling has regained the importance that it deserves...the era of the sloppy arm tackles has finally ended.
I saw quite a few of them on Sunday but overall, I agree. The tackling has greatly improved.

At some point, I think people have to start holding Zimmer accountable for his offense. I know he's a defensive-minded coach but he's also the head coach. His "tight ship" is only tight one side of the ball right now and he's responsible for more than that.
The offensive scheme is hard to evaluate because there is NO OL in place. I like Norv's base concepts but he seems very ponderous and unable to fine tune his calls in game time.
The MOST frustrating things are that we are running on the clock...AP's shelf life is not infinite. Additionally, while I am patient with the idea of a young learning QB, I expect to see a small bit of improvement each month. Not regression/stagnation.......
I feel that clock ticking too.
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Re: Scoring

Post by The Breeze »

I think Chicago brings up the point that is fueling my frustration.
I didn't expect the defense or the team to be playing this well so soon.
Winning road games out west and within the division.
There is some sense of urgency with AD's age and the possibility TB could get broken standing back there behind this line.
The difference in a lot of games on a weekly basis is the failure or success of one drive. TD vs FG.
We have a guy riding the pine who clearly can make things happen with the ball in his hands. Given the production of the guys in front of him, I'm not buying into him being on the bench any more.
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Re: Scoring

Post by mansquatch »

Jim wasn't trying to put words in your mouth. :beerock:

The big thing the numbers tell me is that we are not likely to see the defense get much better in terms of PA. It might get down to 17 or maybe 16, but even that would likely take a historic season in this day and age of the NFL. The room to improve is on the offensive side of the ball. We need to be in the 25-26 PF range.

I doubt we'll see a change on offense after this season in terms of OC, but i wonder if that will be the case if 2016 is more of the same? I think we'll see the team add OL talent in the draft this year and possible in FA as well. I do not see how Spielman can escape the conclusion that this year there the state of the OL was the team's biggest overall weakness.
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Re: Scoring

Post by Mothman »

mansquatch wrote:Jim wasn't trying to put words in your mouth. :beerock:
I realize that. :) No harm done. I was just emphatic in my response because the last time I tried to use a few years under the previous coaching staff as context for comparison, it was misconstrued. That stuff is really just in this thread so we can get a rough idea of where this current Vikings team started from and where they've been going since.

I also realize these scoring stats are "bare bones" numbers, with very little context. Consequently, I appreciate the point differential stats you posted.
I doubt we'll see a change on offense after this season, but i wonder if that will be the case if 2016 is more of the same.
I don't think we'll see a coaching, QB or scheme change after this season, if that's what you mean. I think we might see some personnel changes but who knows? The season isn't over yet so there's still time to make progress and at the point, I guess they'll determine what they need to do..

The bottom line for me is the offense has obviously regressed. I just want to see it improve and become a more formidable unit.

Edit: Oops! Sorry, I see that you edited your post while I was responding to it.
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Re: Scoring

Post by mansquatch »

I'm not sure I think the offense has regressed, I think it has more or less stagnated as I think part of the 24.4 PF in the 2013 season is a result of playing from behind. If you look at the box scores in 2013 there are many games were we scored 14 or fewer points. There are a few games where we blew up for over 30 points, several of which we lost due to having the worst defense in the league for PA. Opinions on that can vary I'm sure.

However, if you except my premise that the offense stagnated and then factor in No AP for 15 games of 2014 and the OL situation in 2015, then one could be minorly optimistic that if we get Sullivan and Loadholt back we might see a big season next year barring no other critical injuries.

I'm very interested to see what this team does in the next 3 weeks. Three games in a row against tough teams, two with winning records. ATL and SEA are both like us, wobbling between pretender and contender. If we are for real, then we should win both of these games. AZ is the big game IMO. I believe AZ is the best team in the NFC and we are going to their house on Thursday Night, arguably the toughest spot to be in during the NFL regular season. (on the road, TNF) That will be a game where the Vikings can prove something. We'll see.
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Re: Scoring

Post by mansquatch »

Mothman wrote: I was just emphatic in my response because the last time I tried to use a few years under the previous coaching staff as context for comparison, it was misconstrued. That stuff is really just in this thread so we can get a rough idea of where this current Vikings team started from and where they've been going since.

I also realize these scoring stats are "bare bones" numbers, with very little context. Consequently, I appreciate the point differential stats you posted.
I find that on this board there are those that want to analyze and those that just want to read into what they've already made their mind up about. You guys let both types post so accept that for what it is and enjoy the conversation you are setting out to have.

These numbers are all about context. So we have to build a view of them with certain assumptions. Then decide if we accept those assumptions and from their reach a conclusion. Finally, watch the games and see if what you see is consistent with what the numbers say. (This is why I brought up the ponder thing. That comparison does not pass the eye test.)

I think when you look at young QBs that win the big game, it has been in the last 20 years almost always a team with a truly special defense. Rothlisburger was a decent Rookie QB, but his defense was tremendous. Same think with Wilson and the Legion of Boom. You might even throw Dilfer and the 2000 Ravens as well as Johnson the 2002 TB team into the mix even though they were not rookies. (just flawed QBs).

We now have a defense that has potential to be at that level. Offensively though, we are not yet good enough (although I think we are close.) You might even look at this a different way: Is Mike Zimmer this decade's Tony Dungy? Maybe he builds an elite defense here, but never gets the offense to be good enough. Then another Gruden comes in, tweaks the Offense a bit and rides it to the big game. I like Zimmer a lot, so I hope this is not the case.
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