dead_poet wrote:
I also worry because Peterson has always had a hard time being patient, which usually means he runs into the line before a hole even has the potential of opening up. After a healthy "year off" I expect that to be the case again. And he's never had much success against San Francisco.
I also think Jim Tomsula is going to want to send the league a message after essentially being left for dead and will have his team well prepared and playing with intensity. Thankfully Kaepernick has his own set of flaws and I hope he's not able to be too elusive and kill us with his legs by extending plays and/or rushing for repeated first downs.
You touched on both of the aspects of the 49ers that I think will be big factors in the game.
On defense, the 3-4 always seems to give AD trouble, especially if the LBs stay home. AD has always been a great cut-and-jump back, but when he struggles its usually because the 2nd level of the defense isn't giving him a cut back lane. When a defense plays a 4-3, the cutback lane is usually taken way by bringing a safety down into the box. In 3-4 alignments, defenses can get away with just being gap disciplined on the defensive line and having LBs who don't get sucked out of position. We've seen some examples of AD going off on 3-4 alignments, but in general he seems to get more of his big plays against the 4-3 than the 3-4. (note - I fully expect someone to go out and compile stats on this, so I freely disclaim that I have no evidence save my memory to support the above)
On the other side of the field, I expect Kap to try to do a lot of scrambling and, in his case, attempting to run for extra yards. I am not nearly as worried about Kap going off in the air even though the 49ers have some weapons, but he can be very difficult to contain as a running threat. I think the Vikes have the talent in the front 7 to neutralize that, but a lot depends on their willingness to stay home and stay disciplined in their pass rush. Zimmer has probably thoroughly beaten any lack of discipline in the pass rush out of them by now, so I think they'll keep Kap contained.
While I think the Vikings have the potential to put up a lot of points this year, I don't think the offensive line is going to afford Norv the confidence he'd need to call for a more aggressive gameplan. At least in this first game, the Vikes will be content to win the TOP battle and field position mostly, although we still could see several big plays that make the score look more lopsided. The 49ers don't have the stars to win outright. They could pull it out with a few turnovers and/or big special teams plays.
I'm going to go Vikes - 17, 49ers - 10, with the 49ers getting a late TD to make it look closer than it was.