Offseason Move Simulator

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mike2mike
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Offseason Move Simulator

Post by mike2mike »

So I am using the free agent simulator on fanspeak which uses overthecap.com data.
final roster here: http://www.vikingsmessageboard.com/view ... 28#p574228

If a later round pick beats one of these guys out or a UFDA does, great.


Cuts:
Charlie Johnson (already gone)
Greg Jennings (This move is possibly premature but it is a good free agent class for WR and draft too. At least in this simulator I feel we can get him back for about the same worst case scenario.).

Scrubs: I will be cutting the players I haven't really heard enough about to be impressed... Before the 53 man roster they may have a chance to prove themselves in competition with a lot of the undrafted rookies and late round rookies. But they won't likely be in the final 53 and won't count against the cap so they are gone for now and to be brought back post draft+UDFAs.
Joe Banyard RB - Practice Squad or 3rd RB in the event that AP holds out or is traded/cut. cut for now.
Henry Josey RB
Carter Bykowski OT
Austin Wentworth OT
Ahmad Dixon S
Chris Greeenwood CB
Josh Kaddu OLB

Bubble:
Chase Ford/Rhett Ellison - Kept for now. With Bostick on if we grab a free agent or TE in the draft there is a chance one of these goes.
Justin Trattou DE kept for now. However, if Tom Johnson and/or Wooten is resigned, he may go depending on free agency and/or.
Audie Cole/Mauti -Kept for now. We may not have room for both of them in the final 53. Brandon Watts was a rookie last year so has a bit more time on his side to prove himself where as if Cole and/or Mauti don't by next year I think you can save the money and roster space for at least one of them.
Shaun Prater/Marcus Sherrels- Kept for now. If we pursue CB like I think we should, one of these could go. Sherrels has lots of special teams value but you never know who we might get. saves over a million to cut. Perhaps Thielen's development allows us to keep Thielen instead of Sherrels at PR.
Adam Thielen WR - I hope he makes the roster in real life but in a deep WR class with deep free agency it's better to keep the options open. Cut for the purposes of the simulator

Restructured: The simulator allows you to restructure. However, I'm not so convinced that Jennings, AP or Greenway will restructure. Could hang onto and let the contract run out like we did with Jared Allen

Tempting to cut for money purposes: Greenway cut would save 7M, Cassel saves 4.75M, Asiata 2.25M. Adrian Peterson would save 13M this year to cut/trade, or a significant amount to restructure contract. Would like to trade if he has no interest in staying on in 2016 rather than lose him for nothing. Would like to cut and then try to sign in free agency for less. There may be similar options for less money. They were all kept for now. Keep this as potential cuts to keep options open and make room for signings later. Unfortunately the simulator doesn't allow cuts as you go. You can't say.. oh I signed Justin Houston, now I can cut Greenway.

Available cap space: 22.5M
Number of players on roster before free agency and draft:43 players. That leaves room for 10 players.
We have 7 draft picks if we don't add or subtract any through trade. Someone undrafted could make it.
Realistically we have room for a few big free agents after this series of moves.
Resigning:Long snapper Cullen Loeffler LS signed for 750,000 for 2 years. 20% guaranteed
Tom Johnson: 4.2M 30% guaranteed. Pretty pricy to keep but was extremely effective in a limited role last year.
Cap space remaining: 18.8M 45 player on roster.

Free agent targets:
RB - Not looking to spend a ton here but value signing could make Asiata expendable. Alternatively a big signing like Demarco Murray or C.J. Spiller would give us options with Peterson.
Toby Gerhart (this signing would make Asiata more expendable if we could get him for cheap thus not take up a roster space or much additional money)
WR - This could get interesting. The simulator doesn't have Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Torrey Smith or Randall Cobb hitting the market which is unfortunate. However Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin made it out and I could also try to get Jennings back. Otherwise trying to get value out of Brian Hartline or Wes Welker is possible.
TE - Vernon Davis and Jermaine Gresham are worth considering.
OG - This is a top priority. I could see us drafting a OT first round that could play inside next year until we decide what to do with Kalil. Otherwise Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin would be great signings.
DT - Depth is useful here. I'd like to bring Kevin Williams back for a year or two in a limited role. Alternatively Henry Melton could be found at a discount this year and we looked at him last year so there is some interest.
OLB - Jabaal Sheard, Pernell McPhee - These two would make it tough to hold onto Greenway with his current cost. Alternatively we could easily draft an OLB early to eventually replace Greenway. There are more great OLB that may not be resigned before free agency but in the simulator these are the top two.
ILB - Tough to justify the price tag being that teams are in sub packages over 75% of the time these days. Nevertheless: Rolando McClain, Paul Posluszny, DJ WIlliams,Heath Farwell. I think Paul Posluszny is under rated, Rolando McClain is good if you can afford him. Heath Farwell would be nice to have back on special teams and at MLB for the right price.
CB - Top Priority: Kareem Jackson, Brandon Flowers, Byron Maxwell... Unfortunately Cromarte was resigned so not an option.
S - Was hoping Devin McCourty would available but he was resigned... but I still might look at signing Rahim Moore.

Prioritizing:With 18.8M and 8 full spots available and 7 draft picks, we have to prioritize.
Ideally, have one major signing and likely cuts planned for every additional spots so you can keep 7 draft choices if necessary. However, some of the bubble players could still be cut to make room so it isn't a must.
I would love to have a CB opposite Rhodes in Zimmer defense. Move Munnerlyn to nickel permanently and Josh Robinson can play outside in dime packages. This addition potentially could make Prater expendable or if a PR is kept and cap room is tighter, Sherrels.
Next aim is OG. Signing an OG does not make anyone expendable as Charlie Johnson already has been cut.
Then I'd like to get a top OLB to make Greenway expendable and potentially free a lot of caproom. Had I cut him already, OLB would be a greater priority. Although I wouldn't mind to see us continue to frontload contracts as we mostly have. They might not be this year. For purposes of the simulator they won't. That allows a bit more room.

Day 1: Contract Offers:
5yr 8M/yr 30% guaranteed CB Byron Maxwell.
5yr 7M/yr 40% guaranteed OG Mike Iupati.
5yr 6.8M/yr 35% guaranteed OLB Pernell McPhee.
4 yr 6.5M 30% guaranteed WR Percy Harvin. (I know, but we still keep our first and third and 7th from him and get him for half the price he would have cost before trade. He is a headache but a great talent and perhaps this experienced has humbled him a bit. The risk is priced in imo.)
All contracts were accepted.
1.1M remains. 49 players on roster. Did not think all contracts would go through so I am tight on the cash but that's okay. Realistically Greenway will be cut given this scenario. That will provide plenty of cap room.
Tried a few offers the next couple days but the simulator doesn't let you make an offer that will go negative. Your only chance at going negative is making several offers where any one signing wouldn't put you negative and having them all accepted. That makes it difficult to add anyone else whether or not it will be easy to release someone to make the cap room work.
Day 5 Finally signed DT Sione Fua for 3 years with 20% guaranteed for $1.5M/yr. Depth.
50 players on roster. Cap space of only $62,292
The simulator says 5M reserved for draft picks. I don't know if that means they automatically deduct that from available cap room or not. Nevertheless after cutting Greenway that will save 7.1M in cap room which is more than enough to sign the rookies plus UFDAs. Additional cap space can be used in a restructure to frontload contract and give them more guaranteed money in exchange for less pay in the future. That improves future cap room.

Simulated Draft.
I used the simulator at first-pick.com instead because you can use trades and it tends to have enough occasional oddball picks to make things really interesting which certainly happens in the draft. What I don't like is the price to trade up is way heavier than in real life and they offer too much for you to move down. I will try to offset any trade down with a move up so as to not to exploit this.
I also don't know much about later picks so I may have fewer picks by moving up.

Main need is MLB. Blanton could be upgraded. I'd like an OT if we get him early enough and potentially can have him play guard and put Iupati at the other spot while Fusco stays on the bench for a year or in substitution. If Kalil doesn't bounce back you have the option to swing him over to Tackle. If there is an injury you can swing him outside. It would be ideal to get a better RB spot for the long term, particularly if we don't restructure, but certainly not a 2015 need IF we keep Peterson.

Potential early draft picks:MLB,OT,SS,RB,WR.
Potential late/depth picks:QB,TE,WR,DE.

1st round.
I love the versatility that Shaq Thompson might bring with his ability to play inside or out in a Zimmer scheme but Vic Beasley also available and perhaps more importantly, McPhee through free agency reduces the need. Kevin White would be a great pick despite grabbing Harvin and Patterson will have plenty of opportunity to develop to Norv Turner's scheme. Trae Waynes at CB isn't a need, but you can never have enough corners so he is also a consideration.
I opt to trade down and role the dice. Preferred order of available players is probably Kevin White, Shaq Thompson (even though Vic Beasley may be a better player in an average defensive scheme), Vic Beasley, Trae Waynes and Todd Gurley and/or Melvin Gordon seem to make sense even though I don't really like grabbing a back this early after keeping AP unless there is plenty of trade demand and one can still be worked out.
Trade down to 16 with Houston and get 16 plus their 2nd and 3rd.
At 16 Shaq Thompson is still available but the retarded part of the simulator shows as I can move down one spot and get a 2nd. So I do it and take him at 17.
With 3 2nds and 2 3rds I am going to try to move back up into the first. It will cost much more than you would think it would, but then again, I got much more out of moving down 6 spots than I would so that's okay. I try to move up to get SS Landon Collins but he goes. I let a few picks by and try again to move up to get a RB. Ridiculous. They won't take 3 2nds and a 3rd and a 4th to move up to 25th. THey won't take 3 2nds and 2 3rds to move up to 25th. I finally get frustrated and offer my entire draft to move up to round 1. It doesn't happen. SO much for this mock draft.
I'm going to just assume that it would be possible to move down to get a 2nd first rounder some how after the move down and pick up Melvin Gordon and there isn't a huge need for the remaining spots anyways. I could use the fanspeak mock draft without trades but let's just go with this.
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