Survivor Advice

[stevo56]

I CANT BELIEVE IT!! lol, what a game! Nothing like a good heart attack before Sunday pasta dinner to get you amped up! lol

I wrote a little write up in the "Vikings VS Jets" thread about my thoughts on the game, and thanking you guys again. Really I cant express enough gratitude.

So lets get down to business! This is the last week in which we have to take 2 teams, week 16 and 17 begins the time where we have to pick THREE winners. 7 or 8 of us are moving on, and unfortunately the 3 dudes who refuse to chop until were under 5 people are all still alive. So here we go.

Here is what we have remaining

TEAMS AVAILABLE........Week 15 (x2).......................Week 16 (x3)..........................Week 17 (x3)
Browns..........................Bengals............................AT PANTHERS...........................AT RAVENS
Buccanears.................AT PANTHERS...........................Packers...................................Saints
Cardinals.......................AT RAMS..........................AT SEAHAWKS..............................49ers
Chiefs...........................RAIDERS............................AT STEELERS............................Chargers
Cowboys......................AT EAGLES...............................Colts................................AT REDSKINS
Eagles...........................Cowboys............................AT REDSKINS..........................AT GIANTS
Falcons..........................Steelers...............................AT SAINTS.............................Panthers
Giants...........................Redskins...............................AT RAMS.................................Eagles
Jaguars.......................AT RAVENS...............................Titans................................AT TEXANS
Packers.........................AT BILLS...............................AT BUCS..................................Lions
Panthers......................Buccanears..............................Browns..............................AT FALCONS
Raiders........................AT CHIEFS.................................Bills....................................Broncos
Redskins......................AT GIANTS...............................Eagles..................................Cowboys
Texans.........................AT COLTS................................Ravens.................................Jaguars
Titans..............................Jets.................................AT JAGUARS...............................Colts


For those of you playing close attention, I accidentally left the Panthers off the list that I posted in the other thread, luckily one of my buddies caught it because it looks like a play we may take them in week 16 if we get passed this week!

Your thoughts are all GREATLY appreciated. Here is how we have things breaking out for now. Obviously subject to change by injuries, people being shut down week 17 for playoff reasons etc

Week 15
Chiefs at HOME in Arrowhead vs Raiders
Giants at HOME vs Redskins

Week 16
Eagles AT Redskins
Packers AT Buccanears
Panthers at HOME vs Browns
(Jaguars, believe it or not, HOME vs Titans is also an option)

Week 17
Cowboys AT Redskins
Texans at HOME vs Jaguars
Falcons at HOME vs Panthers
(several other options will be in play here, have to assume a lot of the top teams will be sitting a bunch of starters for a majority of the game. But as of now this is how it shakes out)



Hit me guys!!! Thanks in Advance!!

-Steve

[maembe]

Tough call here. I'm not sure I'd trust the Giants over anyone, but the Redskins seem to be in full on tank mode. Panthers over Bucs might be better, although that one's far from a sure-thing too.

The only pick I don't like is Panthers over the Browns in week 16. The Browns have been a better team this year and the Panthers have looked horrible up until this week. You don't have a lot of other good matchups that week though, so Browns over the Panthers might be the better option. I can't say I'd have a lot of confidence either way.

Any chance that it'll be going down to two teams if enough people are eliminated next week? You have two great matchups and one iffy one in weeks 16 and 17, so that would be huge for you.

Also, how many people are left and how many of those don't want to split? If there's only one left it might be worth it to take a look at their matchups this coming week. If they're bad it could be worth it to go all out this week in an effort to stay alive long enough to split the pot.

[stevo56]

Appreciate it maembe. Im a die hard Giants fan so I definitely need you guys to tell me how it is, because I fully admit I see things through blue shaded glasses lol.

There are probably going to be 8 people left after tonights game. 3 of the 8 100% have no interest in splitting yet. Everyone is pretty even as far as next weeks matchups go. We all have the Chiefs and Giants remaining. 2 have Ravens vs Jags, so they'll definitely pick that game Im sure.

Basically Im assuming it either ends this week, or all people remaining move on. The ladder is much more likely in my opinion. Giants opened as 6.5 point favorites, and the skins may be forced to go back to RGIII, which bodes well for us because he has never played well vs us, their OL is bad, and its a home game for the Giants. I think we have won 6 of the last 7 at home vs them. Obviously, we are very very bad this year lol, and anything can happen. But again, it comes down to options.

However, should we make it through to week 16. We are in, BY FAR, the best position. We are the only people left who have the packers, and the only people left who have the eagles. Which should be 2 of the easier picks that week.

When it goes to 3 teams, this is how it works. You rank your picks in order 1, 2, & 3. If everyone is knocked out, you take the order in to consideration. So if everyones knocked out, whoevers #1 picks are right, are alive. If 6 get #1 right and only 3 get #2 right, its chopped between those 3.

That sounds kind of confusing, but its the best way I can word it. At the end of the day, this is the big week for us. If we win these 2 games, its very hard for me to see us NOT landing in the money somehow.

I appreciate your take sir, thank you again. Like I said I definitely need to be grounded when it comes to Giants talk, as a fan I have a tendency to have TOO much faith in them. ESPECIALLY this season, lol

Keep them coming boys!

[Ardenn]

This is a really tough week for you Steve. Redskins v Giants is a hail mary that nobody can do a good job of predicting... most of your other available picks aren't much better. Panthers v Bucs maybe, their running game should stay improved with Johnathan Stewart starting and them having some continuity in their offensive line for the first time for pretty much the whole season.

I wouldn't take the Panthers over the Browns at this point, Manziel is a wild card. Might play well, might be trash. Im guessing trash, but no one has any idea of it right now. All things being the same at that point as they were this week, I would call Browns over Panthers a solid pick. That will become at least a little more clear when week 16 rolls around.

I guess the question is, do you want to throw that hail mary and risk it all this week, or take the Packers and throw the hail mary as your #3 pick next week? That's a tough call.

FWIW, if you're sticking with saving the Packers, if I were in your shoes I would take the Panthers this week. IIRC that Giants win came off of a pile of turnovers that you really cant count on getting round two.

[maembe]

I guess the question is, do you want to throw that hail mary and risk it all this week, or take the Packers and throw the hail mary as your #3 pick next week? That's a tough call.

Playing the odds I would think he has to go all out this week, especially since his matchups are so favorable in week 16 no matter who he picks in week 15. That said, that doesn't really change anything since there aren't two sure-fire picks this coming week, both CAR over TB and NYG over WAS are good but not great and neither of them really affect any of the next two weeks.

It would be interesting to actually do a serious statistical analysis to find out what strategy produce the best likely outcome. I wonder if something outside of the box like picking the Packers over the Bills instead of the Chiefs over the Raiders would improve the odds of winning simply because a Raiders upset in that scenario would eliminate everyone else without even needing to play in subsequent weeks. I'm not suggesting you actually do this, just some food for thought.

[Texas Vike]

I wouldn't take the Panthers over the Browns at this point, Manziel is a wild card. Might play well, might be trash. Im guessing trash, but no one has any idea of it right now. All things being the same at that point as they were this week, I would call Browns over Panthers a solid pick. That will become at least a little more clear when week 16 rolls around.

.

But man wouldn't it be fun to flash the money sign back at Manziel?

My guess is he falls flat, too, but he's a tough guy to bet against.

[PacificNorseWest]

KC and Baltimore.

[maembe]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... nt-tuesday

Scary news but makes you decision easier. Looks like you'll be sticking with your Giants

[stevo56]

Ardenn -

There goes any option about picking Carolina this week with the Cam incident. Terrible story, hope its not serious like the reports say. But id be shocked if he played this week, and I just don't trust the Bucs to look that way. However, if he does miss some time, this could turn out to be a huge help to me.

This is what I meant by future picks are up for debate, you never know what can happen. However the way I see it is....If Cam misses this week and they lose to Tampa, they have no shot at the playoffs, so even if Cam can physically go in Week 16 or 17, why would you play him and risk everything? If they win on Sunday and there still alive I fully expect him to play. But with a loss it makes my 3rd pick in week 16 in 17 a lot easier

16- Browns at Carolina
17- Falcons home for Carolina

Who know, lets see how it pans out as they week goes.


PacificNorse - If I had Baltimore, that would be a no brainer! lol. See the original post for who I have remaining

Maembe - Like I said above, I hope the guys ok, but if he misses time it could be a clincher for me.


Keep it coming guys, everything helps!

[stevo56]

For those who want to know. The picks for week 15 are locked in! We have until Sunday to change, but we feel good about them for now.

Kansas City Chiefs IN Arrowhead vs the Raiders
New York Football Giants at HOME vs the Redskins

Same as last week, Ill be back Monday morning to either beg for more help, or look for people to talk me off the ledge! lolol. Thanks again for everything gents. Ill try and check in Sunday morning before kickoff if I can. Here goes nothing!!

-Steve

[PsyDanny]

For those who want to know. The picks for week 15 are locked in! We have until Sunday to change, but we feel good about them for now.

Kansas City Chiefs IN Arrowhead vs the Raiders
New York Football Giants at HOME vs the Redskins

Same as last week, Ill be back Monday morning to either beg for more help, or look for people to talk me off the ledge! lolol. Thanks again for everything gents. Ill try and check in Sunday morning before kickoff if I can. Here goes nothing!!

-Steve

Do it up, Steve O

[Ardenn]

Ardenn -

There goes any option about picking Carolina this week with the Cam incident. Terrible story, hope its not serious like the reports say. But id be shocked if he played this week, and I just don't trust the Bucs to look that way. However, if he does miss some time, this could turn out to be a huge help to me.

This is what I meant by future picks are up for debate, you never know what can happen. However the way I see it is....If Cam misses this week and they lose to Tampa, they have no shot at the playoffs, so even if Cam can physically go in Week 16 or 17, why would you play him and risk everything? If they win on Sunday and there still alive I fully expect him to play. But with a loss it makes my 3rd pick in week 16 in 17 a lot easier

16- Browns at Carolina
17- Falcons home for Carolina

Who know, lets see how it pans out as they week goes.


PacificNorse - If I had Baltimore, that would be a no brainer! lol. See the original post for who I have remaining

Maembe - Like I said above, I hope the guys ok, but if he misses time it could be a clincher for me.


Keep it coming guys, everything helps!

Cam isn't starting this week, but that game could still be just as good a pick as the NYG game. Remember, the Panthers already beat the Bucs once this year, and Derek Anderson was the QB for that game, too. 24 of 34 passes for 230 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Do you know what options your opposing players have for picks? It may make sense to play the Packers and survive, hope a couple more competitors get knocked off. I don't expect Cam to miss the next couple games - he wasn't seriously injured, he missed some practice and is sore. The Panthers aren't resting starters nor do they have someone else they would want to get reps to in the next couple games, so you can expect him to play out the season.
Moot point, since you already have your picks locked up.

[sonicology]

For those who want to know. The picks for week 15 are locked in! We have until Sunday to change, but we feel good about them for now.

Kansas City Chiefs IN Arrowhead vs the Raiders
New York Football Giants at HOME vs the Redskins

Solid picks, given your options I'd probably have chosen the same.

Best of luck mate, rooting for you!

[Ardenn]

Damn Steve, you just caught a big break at the half, with the touchdown getting reversed AND Moss being ejected.
Rooting for you, even though I would have picked Carolina.

[Ardenn]

STEVE SURVIVES! Way to go Steve. Do work next week.