Culpepper-Moss highlights

[Mothman]

Drew Brees seemed to do ok in pretty much the exact same situation. And I'd argue tooth and nail that a torn labrum in a QB's throwing shoulder is more impactful than the type of knee injury Culpepper sufered

I understand your point but other than also being injured, I wouldn't say Brees was in "pretty much the exact same situation" and he certainly didn't end up in a similar situation after his injury.

A QB, more than any position in any North American team sport, has an opportunity to single-handedly transform the overall quality of their team. So again, did Culpepper get stuck on bad teams? Or did ok teams get stuck with Culpepper?

In Miami, he was clearly still hampered by the injury and defenses took advantage of his inability to move laterally. That Dolphins team wasn't very good and Culpepper wasn't physically ready to "single-handedly transform the overall quality of their team" (although I don't believe any QB can do that anyway).

I am feel confident saying the Oakland and Detroit teams he ended up on were just plain bad, especially considering the state of those organizations at the time. The Raiders were 2-14 in 2006, the year before Culpepper played there, and hadn't won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Heck, they still haven't had a winning season 2002. There's no more dysfunctional franchise in the league.

The 2008-2009 Lions won a total of 2 games so Culpepper was obviously stuck on bad teams in Detroit. At that point in time, the Lions were another of the NFL's most dysfunctional franchises. They hadn't put together a winning season in 7 years when Culpepper signed with them.

For sure. The effect goes both ways and that's part of the reason why this is so tough. The Brady-Moss 2007 season is about as clear an example of this as we'll see.

Oakland man. What a trip. I honestly forgot about Napolean Harris' existence until you mentioned him. I'm not even going to mention who we used that pick on either for the sake of everyone's health.

The 2nd year in Oak was a disaster all around. That year, I'll admit he was basically not trying. Year 1 though I don't remember it being an issue and Collins saw a small uptick in his measured results.

In year 1, I think it was about as much of an issue as it had been in Minnesota. He certainly tried harder that year than he did a season later.

Napoleon Harris (and the player selected with that draft pick) are probably best forgotten!

Sure but if we're measuring the right things (we're probably not or more accurately, we probably can't right now), his effort's impact on point differential should be baked into the measurements and thus we don't need to give or take away extra credit in arbitrary amounts.

Sure, but in the more subjective argument about the greatest receiver of all time, effort seems relevant.

Mark Twain lived in an era where even the most simplistic computer did not exist. Given his love for technology and innovation, I doubt very much he'd be singing a similar tune if he were born 100 years later (though that's obviously some pretty wild speculation on my part). Regardless, his opinions and pithy quips regarding something he didn't (couldn't) understand don't mean anything.

I think his point remains valid: statistics can be manipulated and used to bolster a weak argument. That's still true today.

At the end of the day, if you're not convinced by this article that Moss is not the greatest receiver of all time, that's completely valid and honestly probably the right stance to take. As mentioned, the article is far from conclusive, I just found it interesting and offered a few insights that I was not aware of regarding his statistical profile.

Technical Football analysis is hard. Damn hard. With the given data sets that we have I would even argue it's borderline impossible. Things are so enmeshed, so hard to untangle that coming to any strong conclusions that don't over-reach is very difficult. It's a completely different animal than analysis in the MLB, NBA and NHL. This difficulty was acknowledged repeatedly in the article and it's one of the reasons I shared it.

I actually liked that aspect of the article because I agree about the level of difficulty involved in that kind of analysis of football. I didn't think it was ALL bad.

Regarding Rice vs. Moss. If someone wants to say they think Rice was better than Moss, I have no problem with that. But, for the above stated reasons, it better not be an argument based on yardage totals and TDs as those are even cruder proxies to underlying talent levels and impact on contributions to winning.

I think they're just part of the bigger picture and the same holds true for any football. In the end, determining who was better is a subjective evaluation and difficult to prove.

[frosted]

In what way? It's meaning seems self-evident.

It just seemed a very strong, absolute statement - as it stands, impossible to prove, certainly not factual.

[Mothman]

It just seemed a very strong, absolute statement - as it stands, impossible to prove, certainly not factual.

It's not impossible. If I had the time and enough game film I could prove it. Anyway, my statement was based on personal observation. The most egregious example I can think of was a play I witnessed at Soldier Field. I've mentioned it many times before so i was reluctant to repeat myself but it was a late 4th quarter situation in a tight game. The Vikes faced 4th and short near midfield. If they could have picked up a first down, they had a chance to continue the drive and win. They ran the ball and they needed Moss to block to help the running play work. He literally let a defender run right by him and tackle the runner short of the first down without making any effort to block him or get in his way. I have no idea why but he wasn't injured and it was apparent that he saw the defender. He just didn't try.

Over the years, I saw other plays like that too. Sometimes he'd give up on a route. Sometimes he wouldn't block. He had a well-earned reputation for lackluster effort and it was based on game performances. Analysts and even opposing players talked about it over the years. Sometimes they were unfair but as I said, Moss earned the rep.

This play from his last stint with the Vikings isn't the best example but it shows how he would sometimes just give a half-hearted effort that resulted in a missed opportunity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2ZR22P ... redirect=1

[Noxage]

I understand your point but other than also being injured, I wouldn't say Brees was in "pretty much the exact same situation" and he certainly didn't end up in a similar situation after his injury.

Interesting that your perspective on this is so different than mine.

They were both what were perceived to be well above average QBs, coming off of severe injuries.

They were even vying for the same preferred landing spot (Miami).

They both landed on teams with questionable rosters and good coaches.

If Brees did go to Miami who knows how the football landscape would have changed. If they make a playoff run that year, would Saban leave the NFL? What would the Saints become? Would the SEC's domination be as pronounced as it's been these last 8 years? All impossible to answer hypotheticals but fun to muse about .

[frosted]

It's not impossible. If I had the time and enough game film I could prove it. Anyway, my statement was based on personal observation. The most egregious example I can think of was a play I witnessed at Soldier Field. I've mentioned it many times before so i was reluctant to repeat myself but it was a late 4th quarter situation in a tight game. The Vikes faced 4th and short near midfield. If they could have picked up a first down, they had a chance to continue the drive and win. They ran the ball and they needed Moss to block to help the running play work. He literally let a defender run right by him and tackle the runner short of the first down without making any effort to block him or get in his way. I have no idea why but he wasn't injured and it was apparent that he saw the defender. He just didn't try.

Over the years, I saw other plays like that too. Sometimes he'd give up on a route. Sometimes he wouldn't block. He had a well-earned reputation for lackluster effort and it was based on game performances. Analysts and even opposing players talked about it over the years. Sometimes they were unfair but as I said, Moss earned the rep.

This play from his last stint with the Vikings isn't the best example but it shows how he would sometimes just give a half-hearted effort that resulted in a missed opportunity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2ZR22P ... redirect=1

The play you described from Chicago would be interesting to take a look at. The play against the Patriots - you're right, I don't think it was a good example. He drew a pass interference flag, and the drive culminated in a touchdown (after he drew another flag, an illegal contact on a third and goal to keep the drive alive). I don't think you could say that play hurt our chances to win that game. You call it a missed opportunity, but it resulted in a positive play of 24 yards - a good result, IMO.

EDIT: You mentioned that analysts talked about it over the years - I don't think that is compelling evidence to your point.

[Mothman]

Interesting that your perspective on this is so different than mine.

They were both what were perceived to be well above average QBs, coming off of severe injuries.

They were even vying for the same preferred landing spot (Miami).

They both landed on teams with questionable rosters and good coaches.

If Brees did go to Miami who knows how the football landscape would have changed. If they make a playoff run that year, would Saban leave the NFL? What would the Saints become? Would the SEC's domination be as pronounced as it's been these last 8 years? All impossible to answer hypotheticals but fun to muse about .

It is fun to muse about.

I think the differences in our perceptions about the two players may stem from other perceptions that are different. For example, while Saban is obviously a terrific college football coach, I didn't think he was anything special as an NFL coach. I believe one of the main reasons Brees has been so successful in New Orleans is because he ended up with a clever, offensive-minded head coach who wanted to build an offense around his abilities and had a good idea of how to make the most of them. Brees' injury, while serious, required a much shorter recovery time so he was also in much better playing shape when the 2006 season began than Culpepper was and he was paired with a coach who knew how to use him. I think he's a better QB than Culpepper too but that's a different story.

[Mothman]

The play you described from Chicago would be interesting to take a look at.

I wish there was film of it available.

The play against the Patriots - you're right, I don't think it was a good example. He drew a pass interference flag, and the drive culminated in a touchdown (after he drew another flag, an illegal contact on a third and goal to keep the drive alive). I don't think you could say that play hurt our chances to win that game. You call it a missed opportunity, but it resulted in a positive play of 24 yards - a good result, IMO.

It's a good result and it's not a great example of Moss hurting his team's chances to win because that drive ended successfully but it was still a questionable effort and a missed opportunity to score on that play. There were much more egregious examples over the years but I don't know if they're out there on the internet to share.

EDIT: You mentioned that analysts talked about it over the years - I don't think that is compelling evidence to your point.

True, but I wasn't presenting it as compelling evidence, just trying to point out that this isn't a pet theory of mine. His half-hearted efforts were well-known and widely discussed. TV analysts broke down plays that showed those half-hearted efforts and if I had video of that stuff, it would be much more compelling but I don't have it. I'm clearly not the only one here who remembers seeing Moss let his teammates down with a lack of effort though...

Don't ge me wrong. I think he was a great player when he was on his game, one of the best I've ever seen. It was just frustrating to watch him when he didn't play hard.

[frosted]

Disclaimer: The following is not for you, Jim, as I realize you're not saying he never blocked, or gave good effort, just that he didn't give good effort at times. But there was always this stupid idea out there that he couldn't block, and this conversation got me thinking about that:

[Noxage]

I wonder how much of the "Saban is a college coach" is just overspun narrative that we've been bombarded with. I'd imagine we'd have different view of his NFL tenure if he had an elite QB working side by side with him. That said, I do agree that Peyton and Brees (and the Superdome for that matter) seems like it was a perfect fit.

[Mothman]

Disclaimer: The following is not for you, Jim, as I realize you're not saying he never blocked, or gave good effort, just that he didn't give good effort at times. But there was always this stupid idea out there that he couldn't block, and this conversation got me thinking about that:

Yeah, there was always a lot of BS out there about how he couldn't block, wouldn't go over the middle, etc. and he really did all of that stuff. In terms of football skill, he developed into a pretty complete player.

[Mothman]

I wonder how much of the "Saban is a college coach" is just overspun narrative that we've been bombarded with. I'd imagine we'd have different view of his NFL tenure if he had an elite QB working side by side with him.

It usually makes a difference!

I think a lot of factors influence a coach's success or failure so it's certainly possible that Saban could have been more successful in the NFL under different circumstances. I don't necessarily think he's "just a college coach" but he's been an excellent college coach and it seems to be where his passion really lies so perhaps he's where he belongs.

I hope his team gets defeated this weekend though.

That said, I do agree that Peyton and Brees (and the Superdome for that matter) seems like it was a perfect fit.

Chemistry seems to play a big part in NFL success, doesn't it? Finding the right "matches" between coach and GM, coach and QB, QB and receiver, star defender and coordinator, sometimes even player and city... it all seems to make some difference.

[frosted]

It usually makes a difference!

I hope his team gets defeated this weekend though.

No matter what we all feel about anything else, we can all agree that Alabama - Mississippi State should be one hell of a game Saturday!

[Noxage]

No matter what we all feel about anything else, we can all agree that Alabama - Mississippi State should be one hell of a game Saturday!

Bama -8.5.

Can anyone remember when the last time the #1 team in the country (per the rankings) this late in the season have been getting that many points? Seems like this might be some sort of record to me. (Though my knowledge of college football betting markets is admittedly fairly minimal).

[DK Sweets]

That was an awesome post on WR personalities, Frosted. I've always felt like Moss was unfairly criticized for his attitude.

I also feel like he was unfairly criticized for his effort. There were plays where he looked like he had given up and as soon as the defender stopped moving their feet Randy was gone. There were also times where he wasn't always running full speed in his routes, but that easily could have been saving his top gear for when he really needed it - either the next play or he might have been baiting defenders to get better positioning on the ball.

I guess my point is, none of us actually knew him, so none of us knew what was really going on. If you have a poor opinion of him, that's your right, but some seem to have villainized him excessively.

[mosscarter]

moss even at half speed was still better than anyone else on the field.