Demi wrote:
Someone has to start. Not like they're starting because they beat out solid veteran options, or they're just that good. They started because we had nothing in place before taking them! And nothing in place behind them now, or even anyone to compete with them.
Hodges has came in and played very well. In turn, Spielman provided solid depth behind an aging veteran. First round picks are drafted primarily to fill holes, hence why you take them in the first round. 3 of the 5 were first round picks...most first round picks start, if not play often in their second season regardless so where are you once again going with this?? .....Nowhere.
The saddest thing in life is wasted talent and the choices you make will shape your life forever.
-Chazz Palminteri
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Hodges has came in and played very well. In turn, Spielman provided solid depth behind an aging veteran. First round picks are drafted primarily to fill holes, hence why you take them in the first round. 3 of the 5 were first round picks...most first round picks start, if not play often in their second season regardless so where are you once again going with this?? .....Nowhere.
My point is they're starters because Spielman took them in the first, not because they're good NFL caliber players....there were players from previous drafts that started for their first year or two...and are no longer in the league. But because a first round pick is starting his second season, we're suppose to be giving Spielman credit for that? You don't draft players to be starters four games into their second season, you draft them to be 5+ year starters...or at least be in the league in a few years...
PurpleKoolaid wrote:
That's true. Whats it have to do with Rickie's drafting?
I'm trying to point out that even had Spielman drafted above average over his tenure (I don't know if that statement is true), the team could still be in the same position given the things that have happened this year.
Blaming Spielman is tempting, and I have questioned aspects of what he's done, but I lack the data necessary to put perspective on what he's done. Without that, he's a tempting target, but it's possible he's as much a victim of the breaks as anyone else who might be blamed for the current state of the Vikings.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2001-2010) start with 1999 draft
Green Bay Packers (1993-1997) start with 1991 draft
New England Patriots (2001-2011) start with 1999 draft
I will look at a couple drafts before they started consistently winning and making the playoffs and examine FA acquisitions as well.
At first, the obvious thing is that each team had, at one time or another during their run, a HoF caliber QB. That is really no surprise. But I am interested to see how they drafted and used FA to address needs, and how they built up and sustained the depth to develop a dynasty. I believe THAT is the real key to consistency. It takes more than just superstars to make a team successful in the long term. What about the role players, the defenses, the OL and DL? I will be adding to this post when I am able, as I imagine this will take a bit of research.
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Dallas won the Super Bowl in 1992, 1993, and 1995. Dallas 1988 Draft
A great draft in which they nabbed Michael Irvin, Ken Norton, and Dave Widdell (who ended up playing most of his career in Denver). But the gem in the late rounds was Chad Hennings in the 11th round. He contributed 27.5 sacks over his nine seasons in Dallas, and is one of those depth role players you need to find in the late rounds.
Dallas 1989 Draft
This is the draft that built the Cowboys: Troy Aikman, Daryl Johnston and Mark Stepnoski. But you might overlook Tony Tolbert in the 4th round. He contributed 59 sacks as a DE over his nine seasons in Dallas. Oh, and they also drafted Steve Wisniewski in the 2nd round, but traded him to the Raiders. That's a lot of Hall of Fame caliber talent in one draft. And we all know who made it possible... ugh.
Dallas 1990 Draft
The Emmit SMith draft. Kenneth Gant (rnd 9) and Jimmie Jones (rnd 3) were also drafted this year. Who they? 22 sacks and 7 INTs together from 1990-1994. Productive.
Dallas 1991 Draft
The Final pieces. Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper and Kelvin Pritchett in the first round. Dixon Edwards (remember him?) in the second round. But the picks that made this draft transcendent were Erik WIlliams (rnd 3), Leon Lett (rnd 7) and Larry Brown (rnd 12). Unreal.
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Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl in 2005 and 2008, and lost the Super Bowl in 2010.
Pittsburgh 1999 Draft
Troy Edwards was a "meh" pick in the first round. But Joey Porter (rnd 3), Aaron Smith (rnd 4) and Kris Brown (rnd 7), more than made up for that whiff.
Pittsburgh 2000 Draft
Plaxico Burress in the first round was a plus. But they also added Marvel Smith (rnd 2) and Clark Haggans (rnd 5). Marvel Smith played T on the formidable Steelers OL, and Haggans contributed 32.5 sacks, 1 INT and 12 FF in 8 seasons with Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh 2001 Draft
Casey Hampton is the only notable in a weak draft class. Chukky Okobi did provide able backup at C through 2006.
Pittsburgh 2002 Draft
Kendall Simmons in Round 1 was a good pick. Started at RG for 5 seasons with the Steelers. Antwaan Randle El was an interesting pick in Rnd 2, an athletic player who never found his sweet spot, but was still productive. Larry Foote in ROund 4 was an excellent pick. But the big winner here is Brett Keisel in Round 7.
Pittsburgh 2003 Draft
Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. That is all.
Pittsburgh 2004 Draft
Ben Roethlisberger (rnd 1) and Max Starks (rnd 3) were two of the final pieces to the Super Bowl puzzle for the Steelers.
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Green Bay lost the Conference Championship in 1995, won the Super Bowl in 1996 and lost the Super Bowl in 1997.
Green Bay Draft 1992
Terrell Buckley in the first round. Robert Brooks (rnd 3), Edgar Bennett (rnd 4), and Mark Chmura (rnd 6) make for a pretty successful draft.
Green Bay Draft 1993
Wayne Simmons was a whiff in Round 1, and George Teague was not ever worth a 1st round pick, but still had a solid career. Earl Dotson (rnd 3), Mark Brunnell (rnd 5) and Doug Evans (rnd 6) take considerable sting out of that draft.
Green Bay Draft 1994
The Upside Down Draft. Aaron Taylor (rnd 1) and Gabe Wilkins (rnd 4) were decent, but Dorsey Levens (rnd 5) and Bill Schroeder (rnd 6) made this draft.
Green Bay Draft 1995
Craig Newsome was a disappointment and Darius Holland was solid, but unspectacular. But William Henderson (rnd 3) Antonio Freeman (rnd 3), and Adam Timmerman (rnd 7) added the talent the Packers needed.
Gotta sleep.... more tomorrow!
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer." - Frank Zappa
There has been a serious lack of talent, and lack of winning records, since the Wilf's and Rick took over this team. I would say that's proof of bad drafting and managing FA's. Now we can wait another 3 years (we don't really have much of a say in it) to see if the picks Rick has made are worth anything. The lack of character issues too. We are in the cellar again, if some of you haven't noticed. Good drafting/FA's through the years, don't usually end you up there. We are the new Lions, where Matt Millen wears another face.
Demi wrote:My point is they're starters because Spielman took them in the first, not because they're good NFL caliber players....there were players from previous drafts that started for their first year or two...and are no longer in the league. But because a first round pick is starting his second season, we're suppose to be giving Spielman credit for that? You don't draft players to be starters four games into their second season, you draft them to be 5+ year starters...or at least be in the league in a few years...
There's no way to know the future of some of these players but do you really think Rhodes and Floyd, for example, are only starting because they were first round picks? They've shown nothing on the field yet to suggest they belong out there in starting positions?
You're right, teams draft players to become good, long-term starters, not just to be starters four games into their second season, but if they're starting and playing well 4 games into their second seasons, isn't that a good sign? There's certainly no way to know, at this point, if they will be 5+ year starters so why the dismissive attitude?
Brian, thank you very much for the additional analysis of Dallas, Pittsburgh and Green Bay. It's interesting and a lot to absorb... so i appreciate the work it must be taking to put all that info together.
PurpleKoolaid wrote:There has been a serious lack of talent, and lack of winning records, since the Wilf's and Rick took over this team. I would say that's proof of bad drafting and managing FA's. Now we can wait another 3 years (we don't really have much of a say in it) to see if the picks Rick has made are worth anything. The lack of character issues too. We are in the cellar again, if some of you haven't noticed. Good drafting/FA's through the years, don't usually end you up there. We are the new Lions, where Matt Millen wears another face.
That's possible but I hope it's not true. The character issues are a problem and in some cases, I think they were avoidable. In others, they probably weren't...
I definitely think some mismanagement, and some high risk management, has led the Vikes to where they are now. They've also had some bad luck and it's difficult to assess just how much influence Spielman had over the roster prior to 2011 or 2012. Because the Vikes went "all in" during the end of the Childress era, they set themselves up for a fall and I think that makes it hard to hold Spielman accountable for their 20-33-1 record since then, especially because I think it was inevitable that they were going to have a losing season in 2011, no matter who was coaching or who was in charge.
They've had one winning season and two losing seasons in the past 3 years. That's not great but it's not necessarily indicative of a long stretch of awful football to come either. They're in the division cellar now but they're also 6 games into the season and just played the toughest part of their schedule. I say let's see what they do over the next 10 games and then re-assess the state of the team.
I definitely feel there are good reasons to question Spielman's management thus far but he's only in his third year as the GM. He, and the Vikes, need to find a way to upgrade their overall depth and get some more impact players into the starting lineup but the jury is still out on him. I'm nervous about the team giving him more time but I'd probably be just as nervous if they replaced him!
I am seeing two different styles between Green Bay and Dallas. Green Bay acquired Brett Favre by trading their first round draft pick to Atlanta, and picked up Reggie White through free agency a HUGE coup), then built depth and added role players through the draft. Their first round was hit and miss, but they found some incredible players deeper in the draft.
Meanwhile, Dallas loaded up through the draft. Their Big Three all arrived via the draft, and most importantly, played out their careers with Dallas. One thing you have to give Jimmy Johnson is that he had one heck of an eye for drafting talented players.
So, initially, it is apparent there is no one "right" way to use the draft. However, in each draft year, it certainly helps to draft one major talent, and then add at least one or two very good to exceptional players in the mid to late rounds, to build a successful team. Has Rick Spielman accomplished that? I have to say, no, but they seem to have improved in 2012, 2013 and so far in 2014.
Of course, this is only after a cursory look at the info, and I may be biased or making assumptions.
Last edited by BGM on Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer." - Frank Zappa
BGM wrote:I am seeing two different styles between Green Bay and Dallas. Green Bay acquired Brett Favre and Reggie White through free agency, then built depth and added role players through the draft. Their first round was hit and miss, but they found some incredible players deeper in the draft.
Meanwhile, Dallas loaded up through the draft. Their Big Three all arrived via the draft, and most importantly, played out their careers with Dallas. One thing you have to give Jimmy Johnson is that he had one heck of an eye for drafting talented players.
So, initially, it is apparent there is no one "right" way to use the draft. However, in each draft year, it certainly helps to draft one major talent, and then add at least one or two very good to exceptional players in the mid to late rounds, to build a successful team. Has Rick Spielman accomplished that? I have to say, no.
Of course, this is only after a cursory look at the info, and I may be biased or making assumptions.
Just a technicality, but Favre wasn't a FA acquistion. GB traded a 1st rounder for him from Atlanta.
Purple Reign wrote:
Just a technicality, but Favre wasn't a FA acquistion. GB traded a 1st rounder for him from Atlanta.
Sorry, quite right! I was lumping that trade into off season acquisitions. My methodology is obviously a little flawed. Fixed my earlier post.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer." - Frank Zappa
Interestingly enough, after looking into just the drafts, I am rather encouraged by the last two drafts for the Vikings.
Matt Kalil needs to work past whatever is keeping him from reaching his potential, but I think he is still the guy at LT. I am still convinced good coaching will make a difference with him. Harrison Smith is the real deal. We have a good K in Blair Walsh. The other guy are getting good experience now, and will be quality depth, I think.
Cordarrelle Patterson will keep developing and, IMO, be a great player. Sharrif Floyd may not be the second coming of Kevin Williams, but he is a solid link to start rebuilding the DL. I believe teddy is the future, I really do. He has some intangibles, especially the ability to shake off mistakes, that will make him successful. Maybe he needs to be a bit more vocal with his leadership, but I think he has the tools and potential to be the engine of the team. Is Rhodes really starter material? If not, he is still getting good experience.
The thing that encourages me is that he has some very solid players in the mid and late rounds that seem to have sticking power, and that was woefully missing his first few drafts. The first few years of drafting were horrible. Really. A few no-brainer hits and a pile of misses. If Spielman drafts well this next season, I see a bright future.
All I can say is we'll see. Wish he had found his stride a few years earlier...
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer." - Frank Zappa
I decided to look at another benchmark and compare Rick Spielman's drafts to his peers' from 2007 to 2011. Not including recent drafts, because the limited time span that has passed would skew results (and take more time). I am limiting this to NFC North teams because it would be quite a task to do all the teams in the NFL. I will look at talent evaluation (still active vs. OOF), retention (% still with team), and impact (avg games played/draft pick). Of course, this is a limited set using limited parameters and measurements, but still worth a look, I think. All data from Profootball Reference.
RAW DATA
2007
Vikings - 2 active players (Adrian Peterson, Brian Robison), 2 still with team, 6 OOF, 384 games
Lions - 3 active players (Calvin Johnson, Drew Stanton, Manuel Ramirez), 1 still with team, 5 OOF, 292 games
Bears - 3 active players (Greg Olsen, Corey Graham, Trumaine McBride), 0 still with team, 6 OOF, 410 games
Packers - 5 active players (James Jones, Allen Barbre, Desmond Bishop, Mason Crosby, Clark Harris), 1 still with team, 6 OOF, 624 games
2008
Vikings - 2 active players (Letroy Guion, John Sullivan), 1 still with team, 3 OOF, 233 games
Lions - 5 active players (Gosder Cherilus, Andre Fluellen, Cliff Avril, Jerome Felton, Landon Cohen), 1 still with team, 4 OOF, 484 games
Bears - 6 active players (Chris Williams, Matt Forte, Earl Bennett, Craig Steltz, Zackary Bowman, Kellen Davis), 3 still with team, 6 OOF, 553 games
Packers - 5 active players (Jordy Nelson, Jermicheal Finley, Josh Sitton, Breno Giacomini, Matt Flynn), 3 still with team, 4 OOF, 450 games
2009
Vikings - 4 active players (Percy Harvin, Phil Loadholt, Jasper Brinkley, Jamarca Sanford), 2 still with team, 1 OOF, 322 games
Lions - 5 active players (Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, Louis Delams, DeAndre Levy, Sammie Lee Hill), 3 still with team, 5 OOF, 458 games
Bears - 3 active players (Henry Melton, DJ Moore, Lance Louis), 0 still with team, 6 OOF, 227 games
Packers - 7 active players (BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, TJ Lang, Quinn Johnson, Jamon Meredith, Jarius Wynn, Brad Jones), 4 still with team, 1 OOF, 480 games
2010
Vikings - 6 active players (Chris Cook, Toby Gerhart, Everson Griffin, Chris DeGeare, Joe Webb, Mickey Shuler), 1 still with team, 2 OOF, 240 games
Lions - 3 active players (Ndamukong Suh, Jason Fox, Willie Young), 1 still with team, 3 OOF, 194 games
Bears - 3 active players (Major Wright, Corey Wootton, J'Marcus Webb), 0 still with team, 2 OOF, 168 games
Packers - 7 active players (Bryan Bulaga, Mike Neal, Morgan Burnett, Andrew Quarless, Marshall Newhouse, james Starks, CJ Wilson), 5 still with team, 0 OOF, 374 games
2011
Vikings - 8 active players (Christian Ponder, Kyle Rudolph, Brandon Burton, Demarcus Love, Mistral Raymond, Brandon Fusco, D'Aundrae Reed, Stephen Burton), 5 still with team, 2 OOF, 230 games
Lions - 2 active players (Nick Fairley, Mikel Leshoure), 2 still with team, 3 OOF, 114 games
Bears - 4 active players (Gabe Carimi, Stephen Paea, Chris Conte, JT Thomas), 2 still with team, 1 OOF, 171 games
Packers - 9 active players (Derek Sherrod, Randall Cobb, Alex Green, Devon House, DJ Williams, Caleb Schlauderaff, DJ Smith, Ryan Taylor, Lawrence Guy), 3 still with team, 1 OOF, 267 games
Packers show their consistency. Of course, this does not include external factors like turnover of coaching or GMs, and does not factor in trades or FA signings that affected retention.
Packers run way with this as well. They draft more impact players based on these parameters. And I feel this is a fairly accurate appraisal. Of course, it does not take into account injuries, but, injured players have less impact, so...
CONCLUSIONS
From 2007-2010, Rick Spielman's drafts were weak, overall, in comparison to the rest of the NFC North. The Vikings had the fewest total draft picks of any team in the NFC North over those 5 drafts. While 61% of the Vikings draft picks are still active, their impact has been limited. Only the Bears seem to have drafted worse during this time span.
If anyone in interested in adding the drafts from 2012-2014, I invite you to go ahead. May add some fuel to the discussion.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer." - Frank Zappa
Yeah, it's a lot of info to sift through, but at least it gives some actual numbers for people to chew on and discuss.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer." - Frank Zappa
Hodges has came in and played very well. In turn, Spielman provided solid depth behind an aging veteran. First round picks are drafted primarily to fill holes, hence why you take them in the first round. 3 of the 5 were first round picks...most first round picks start, if not play often in their second season regardless so where are you once again going with this?? .....Nowhere.
