Decision on Ponder's option may not be easy

[Mothman]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 11941.html

The Vikings have until May 3 to decide whether to exercise their fifth-year option on Christian Ponder, and while the team’s 2011 top pick has not met expectations and could see the Vikings draft a new quarterback of the future next month, the decision could be tougher than you think.

By picking up Ponder’s option for 2015, the only risk they would be taking is that Ponder could get hurt, as his fifth-year salary would only be guaranteed if he suffered a major injury that lingered into the 2015 league year, which starts in March.

If Ponder is healthy at the end of 2014, they can sever ties without paying him a dime in 2015.

“If he continues to [play below expectations], all you do is after the Super Bowl and before the league year begins, just release him and you’re not on the hook for anything, assuming he is healthy,” said Joel Corry, a former agent who now analyzes the business of football for National Football Post. “It’s low risk from their standpoint. Some teams may not want to take the risk [in that situation], but I don’t think you’re exposing yourself that much if you exercise the option.”

[Tark10]

Excluding the money issue....Cut him as soon as possible. Money or not, he is still taking up a roster spot. I hope they eat the cash and dump the guy. I give them credit for trying to draft a quarterback...It just didn't work out. Close the book on Ponder. New coaching staff, outdoor football for two years.....I CAN'T WAIT! Looking forward to my 43rd year as a Viking fan.

[Mothman]

There is absolutely no way that gets picked up. I think it would cost ~$10m. Whether it's guaranteed or not.

As long as he's healthy, it wouldn't cost them anything as long as they cut him before the fifth year of the contract officially kicked in next March.

[Mothman]

But why bother if they are going to cut him anyway?

They obviously wouldn't bother if they've already made that decision. From the article:

But general manager Rick Spielman recently suggested that the Vikings haven’t made their minds up, and that makes sense because Ponder will get an opportunity to make a favorable impression on head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner at the team’s voluntary veteran minicamp next week. A strong week could help convince them to keep him around.

I'm guessing the Vikings decision about the option will hinge on what kind of impression Ponder makes on Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner during that minicamp next week.

I don't think he will even be on the roster this year. I think the Vikings will take QB rd 2 and also a developmental guy in round 4 or 5 to play behind Cassel and just let Ponder walk.

I doubt it but that's possible. IF (and it's a big "if" at this time of year) there's anything to Spielman's recent comment that the Vikings would want to "redshirt" any QB they draft and let him use this season as a learning year, then it seems more likely to me that they'd keep Ponder as the primary backup going into this season and the newly-drafted QB would be the developmental QB. If Cassel gets hurt, Ponder would then step in and start unless the coaches felt the rookie was ready to go.

Anyway, I suspect the decision regarding the option will hinge on how Zimmer and Turner feel about Ponder after working with him next week. I doubt the option gets picked up but unless Ponder is traded, I see very little chance he won't be with the Vikings this season. I think the Vikings see more value in him than most fans and I doubt they will just cut him. I won't deny that it's a possibility though...

[Eli]

$10,000,000

That's an easy decision, not a difficult one.

I don't follow the logic of (paraphrasing) "If he plays poorly in 2014, then you release him after the season and it costs you nothing." How could he possibly play well enough in 2014 that it would justify paying him $10M in 2015?

If he were to come in and play well enough that the Vikings were interested in retaining him as a backup in 2015, then by not exercising the option they'd have the ability to sign him to a new contract for some small fraction of that amount. They certainly won't want to pay a backup that kind of money, so they'd be forced to cut him _because_ they exercised the option. And if here were to actually play well enough that he looks like their starter in 2015, it _still_ shouldn't cost them $10M for his services.

[Cliff]

$10,000,000

That's an easy decision, not a difficult one.

I don't follow the logic of (paraphrasing) "If he plays poorly in 2014, then you release him after the season and it costs you nothing." How could he possibly play well enough in 2014 that it would justify paying him $10M in 2015?

Keep in mind as you read this that you asked "how could he possibly play well enough in 2014 ... " and the realm of "possibility" is large indeed

I could see Ponder going into the season as the #2 QB. Cassel starts, rookie gets "red-shirted" to 3rd, and Ponder as backup. The only exception is if we pick a QB at #8 overall rather than in the 2nd round then the #8 overall pick will almost certainly be 2nd string.

Say Cassel gets injured during the first game and some light switch goes off in Ponder's head ... he suddenly becomes awesome.

Then it'd be worth it.

[Eli]

Say Cassel gets injured during the first game and some light switch goes off in Ponder's head ... he suddenly becomes awesome.

Then it'd be worth it.

But you have to assess the probability of that happening vs. the probability that he could prove himself worth keeping as a backup. I'd say the later is many, many times more likely than that light switch suddenly flipping. And because of that, his continuing as a backup QB is the real-world best case scenario for the Vikings - that they don't have to write him off as a total bust. By exercising the 5th year option, it becomes a near certainty that they'll be forced to cut him after the season. It just makes no sense for the Vikings to paint themselves into that corner.

[Cliff]

But you have to assess the probability of that happening vs. the probability that he could prove himself worth keeping as a backup. I'd say the later is many, many times more likely than that light switch suddenly flipping. And because of that, his continuing as a backup QB is the real-world best case scenario for the Vikings - that they don't have to write him off as a total bust. By exercising the 5th year option, it becomes a near certainty that they'll be forced to cut him after the season. It just makes no sense for the Vikings to paint themselves into that corner.

I agree, exercising the option has a very small chance of happening in my opinion. The only way it would happen is if Ponder saw extended playing time for some reason and did extremely well … which also isn’t a likely scenario (both him seeing extended playing time OR playing well).

But I can see the situation where it would be worth it … but I also realize that situation happening has very long odds.

Still, there’s no reason to cut him this season. He’s signed through the year and the team doesn’t keep any additional money by cutting him now.

[Mothman]

I agree, exercising the option has a very small chance of happening in my opinion. The only way it would happen is if Ponder saw extended playing time for some reason and did extremely well … which also isn’t a likely scenario (both him seeing extended playing time OR playing well).

But I can see the situation where it would be worth it … but I also realize that situation happening has very long odds.

Still, there’s no reason to cut him this season. He’s signed through the year and the team doesn’t keep any additional money by cutting him now.

Plus, exercising the option would cover them if the extremely unlikely scenario you're talking about developed and if it didn't and they wanted to keep him in 2015 purely as a backup, they could probably renegotiate the deal. If not, they could still cut him at no loss.

[Eli]

Still, there’s no reason to cut him this season. He’s signed through the year and the team doesn’t keep any additional money by cutting him now.

I don't see where that was suggested, either in the article or in this conversation.

[jackal]

yeah thats a tuff one ... GET OUT !!!

[Mothman]

I don't see where that was suggested, either in the article or in this conversation.

The prospect of cutting him was mentioned twice in the first 5 posts in this thread.

[Eli]

The prospect of cutting him was mentioned twice in the first 5 posts in this thread.

Who knows... Norv could take one look at the guy and find him to be so hopeless that they decide it isn't even worth having him in camp. Seems unlikely, but you could be right.

[King James]

I'm probably the one who who still wants Ponder to get another chance. I really hope he stays on the team. He doesn't have to be the starter but I want to see him learn off the bench. If anything he could probably be a serviceable back-up for us in the future. I want to see how he does under a new coach before they release him or let him walk.

[Eli]

I'm probably the one who who still wants Ponder to get another chance. I really hope he stays on the team. He doesn't have to be the starter but I want to see him learn off the bench. If anything he could probably be a serviceable back-up for us in the future. I want to see how he does under a new coach before they release him or let him walk.

We might never get that chance. I have a feeling that the Vikings won't be playing musical chairs at QB next year unless Cassel _really_ stinks it up. And if the QB they draft begins to look good in practice at some point during the season, he could very well end up second on the depth chart.