Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early!

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majorm
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Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early!

Post by majorm »

Charch was solo with PA gone on Friday and he came up with an interesting study on successful QBs and where they were selected.

I don't remember the exact numbers but it was basically that over the last ten years - by a HUGE margin - QBs with the most playoff appearances are ones that were taken in the first round of the draft. So you can talk all you want about the failures like Ponder and Gabbert, but if you want to succeed, you better get a QB worthy of a first round selection.

Russell Wilsons are VERY hard to come up with.

I've been in favor of going defense #1 but maybe I better hope they can land one of the top QBs with that first pick. I know it's no guarantee, but it seems the odds are really against them if they don't. Much more than I realized.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by PsyDanny »

majorm wrote: if you want to succeed, you better get a QB worthy of a first round selection. .
Key word: worthy.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by mondry »

majorm wrote:Charch was solo with PA gone on Friday and he came up with an interesting study on successful QBs and where they were selected.

I don't remember the exact numbers but it was basically that over the last ten years - by a HUGE margin - QBs with the most playoff appearances are ones that were taken in the first round of the draft. So you can talk all you want about the failures like Ponder and Gabbert, but if you want to succeed, you better get a QB worthy of a first round selection.

Russell Wilsons are VERY hard to come up with.

I've been in favor of going defense #1 but maybe I better hope they can land one of the top QBs with that first pick. I know it's no guarantee, but it seems the odds are really against them if they don't. Much more than I realized.
Here's the problem with that line of thinking, you can say that for literally every single position in football. There isn't a position in the game (if you don't count kicker / punter i guess, LOL) where 2nd or 3rd round guys succeed more than 1st round guys.

So that simply means it comes down to the prospects involved. If you can get a hall of fame linebacker like patrick willis at #8 or a Ponder / Gabbert, your team will be better off with Patrick Willis. Now if there is a Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, John Elway type of prospect you can pick and you really need a QB then it makes a lot of sense to take your first round QB.

I don't think you force pick Derek Carr at #8 simply because you're scared of non first round QB's, I think that'd be a disaster. We've seen first hand with Ponder that if you take a 2nd round guy in the 1st round, it doesn't make them more likely to succeed.

If Manziel or Bridgewater are there then it's fine, I understand the gamble vs need, other than that I don't like it. This class is flawed but deep, that means there is no elite QB prospects, but probably 7 or 8 guys that aren't all that different from eachother. This is one of the years imo where some guy in the 2nd or 3rd round is almost as likely to succeed as the first round guy. Who that is of course is anyone's guess.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by mansquatch »

I agree with Mondry. IMO, part of the reason we signed Cassell was so that we were not essentially slaved to picking a QB at #8 similar to where we were in 2011. So yeah, if a guy you REALLY think is worthy of hte #8 pick on the merits of his talent then yes take him, but if he is #8 because he is the next QB in line, then I say take the BPA. Heck if there is run on QB, we could end up with Clowney or Mack. I would love that pick vs. a Carr or other 2nd tier QB pick.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

Did anybody actually fact check this?

Last year:
New England: Tom Brady, 6th round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd round
Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, 1st round
Denver: Peyton Manning, 1st round
Kansas City: Alex Smith, 1st round
San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers, 1st round
Philadelphia: Nick Foles, 3rd round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd round
Seattle: Russell Wilson, 3rd round
San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick, 2nd round

Overall, 12 teams, 6 first-rounders.

In 2012, it was 7 first-rounders. In 2011, it was 8 (and one of those was Tim Tebow, who could hardly be considered a success overall).

Total over 3 years: 36 teams, 21 first-rounders, 15 non-first-rounders. Not exactly overwhelming.

I don't have time to do any more research, but honestly, 10 years is too long to go back, anyway. So I'm officially calling BS on the study.

First round means very little. Take a guess who Ron Jaworski rates as this year's #2 QB prospect behind Blake Bortels. None other than Zach Mettenberger -- nobody's mock draft has him going in the fist round. To heck with what round they come in. Get the right guy!
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by Dames »

J. Kapp 11 wrote:Did anybody actually fact check this?
I believe the study was regarding QB's drafted in the last 10 years. So... Brady, Manning, and Brees don't count (maybe not even Rivers), because they were drafted over 10 years ago. That said, I didn't go back and fact check the last 10 years either.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by mondry »

Dames wrote: I believe the study was regarding QB's drafted in the last 10 years. So... Brady, Manning, and Brees don't count (maybe not even Rivers), because they were drafted over 10 years ago. That said, I didn't go back and fact check the last 10 years either.
That would make very little sense as those QB's make up a good portion of the playoff appearances in the past 10 years...
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by majorm »

J. Kapp 11 wrote:Did anybody actually fact check this?

Last year:
New England: Tom Brady, 6th round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd round
Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, 1st round
Denver: Peyton Manning, 1st round
Kansas City: Alex Smith, 1st round
San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers, 1st round
Philadelphia: Nick Foles, 3rd round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd round
Seattle: Russell Wilson, 3rd round
San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick, 2nd round

Overall, 12 teams, 6 first-rounders.

In 2012, it was 7 first-rounders. In 2011, it was 8 (and one of those was Tim Tebow, who could hardly be considered a success overall).

Total over 3 years: 36 teams, 21 first-rounders, 15 non-first-rounders. Not exactly overwhelming.

I don't have time to do any more research, but honestly, 10 years is too long to go back, anyway. So I'm officially calling BS on the study.

First round means very little. Take a guess who Ron Jaworski rates as this year's #2 QB prospect behind Blake Bortels. None other than Zach Mettenberger -- nobody's mock draft has him going in the fist round. To heck with what round they come in. Get the right guy!
Well, he only went back ten years so Brady doesn't count. He's ALWAYS the one that throws a wrench in the works. And there are only two other guys there taken past the second round.

And again, it's not my research, it was Paul Charchian. I did find it interesting though. And last year is just one season. He was looking at the past ten.

And while Mondry makes a good point that this somewhat applies to any position, there is no more important position than QB of course.

Hey, this is why we had the big argument around here last year about whether you wanted the Vikings to go for wins or lose 'em all to get the higher draft pick. No, it's no certainty by any stretch that you have to get a QB early to get a good one, but the odds are definitely better.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by Dames »

mondry wrote: That would make very little sense as those QB's make up a good portion of the playoff appearances in the past 10 years...
Unless you are trying to see a trend with the way QB's are being drafted more recently. But, like any stats, you can make it say whatever you want. :wink:

I don't disagree that it's confusing the way it's presented, but it's a bit interesting to see that of the QB's drafted lately, the ones picked in the first round at least appear to have had a lot more success. I'm basing it totally on the data presented. I'm not even certain it's accurate.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by Eli »

I'll do it. What are we counting as a playoff "appearance"? A playoff game or an entire postseason? And are we only counting starting QBs?
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by thatoneguy »

2012 - 6 first
2011 - 8 first
2010 - 8 first (7th rd Cassel; 6th rd Hasselbeck and Brady; 2nd rd Brees)
2009 - 8 first (2 undrafted Warner and Romo; 2nd Brees; 6th Brady)
2008 - 10 first (2 undrafted Warner and Delhomme)
2007 - 6 first (2nd Todd Collins (replacing Jason Campbell who was hurt for final 3 games); 4th David Garrard; 2 undrafted Romo, and Jeff Garcia; 2 6th Brady and Hasselbeck)
2006 - 7 first (2 undrafted Romo and Garcia; 6th Hasselbeck and Brady; 2nd Brees)

Alright got a little bored at this point. But to those that say Brady messes things up, dont players like Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Rex Grossman, and others also screw numbers up? Just saying.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by Mothman »

It's simple: success at the QB position isn't about when a QB is selected, it's about who that QB is and what sort of situation he enters, the quality of the team around him as he develops, etc. A team could draft a QB in the first round 4 straight times and still come up empty. They could draft one in round 3 and strike gold. It's all about the individual players and the quality of the team.

What's not simple is identifying the right QB and building the situation in which he can succeed. :)
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by Slick Rick »

This has been touched on by several sources. It's really just common sense: the best QBs are taken early because they're perceived as the best QBs coming out of college. It doesn't mean that you use your first pick on a QB because he's more likely to succeed being a 1st round pick, I think that much is obvious, but usually a GM knows who his guy is. Sometimes a team knows who their favorite QB is, and the guy isn't going to go until the 3rd or 4th round. This is especially true in today's NFL with how much scouting teams are doing.

Let's put it this way: Seattle had Russell Wilson as their #1 QB on their draft board. If Rick sees the same thing in a guy who's probably going to be there in the 2nd or 3rd round or so, I definitely hope he waits it out.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by headless_norseman »

J. Kapp 11 wrote: I don't have time to do any more research, but honestly, 10 years is too long to go back, anyway. So I'm officially calling BS on the study.



I'm not. Facts and reality back up the premise. But aong with your side/point, I also believe good QB's have had shortened careers because of bad teams and or coaching. I also think average QB's have had good careers because of better coaching and or circumstances.

I honestly think the Vikinngs are a good circumstance right now.
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Re: Interesting topic on "The FAN" Friday. Get your QB early

Post by headless_norseman »

Slick Rick wrote: If Rick sees the same thing in a guy who's probably going to be there in the 2nd or 3rd round or so, I definitely hope he waits it out.

I'd rather see Zimmer or Turner pick one of the several I'm suure they have pegged in the first round.

If not, Mosely then maybbe a Carr in the 2nd rouund, or even move back up in the first round, using one of of 3rd round picks.
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